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Old 04-21-2018, 08:57 PM   #21451
homerdash
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
I don't disagree with any of this and know what Mike is saying but OTOH if I'm better at hand analysis than 9/10 people there's not a lot of value in say posting it here on 2p2 especially when the quality of advice given is so random. I've posted a number of hands on 2p2 and typically I get conflicting advice and just end up re-analyzing the different possible lines myself. And I haven't had any hands I posted that ended in some revelation of me spotting a major leak.



Yeah, I don't know what I don't know, but I also don't know what others opining on a hand don't know.







The biggest type of tilt I still have is I guess what I'd call "OCD tilt" and it happens when I've decided I'm about to leave. Like my stack is exactly 1004 so I can play one more orbit of 1/2 and still cash out at an even multiple of 100. During the final orbit I tend to play super tight, and there have been several times I've folded a borderline hand like AJ in MP where if I'd played my normal range I would have won a large pot.



Anybody else have this issue? I've gotten a lot better about it by deliberately trying not to track how much money I have. I just bring a bunch of green and black chips. I still get a little OCD about leaving on even intervals of 25 though. I don't like having like three extra red chips.


cash out the little chips and use it for something: a few maxbet VP hands (and cash out at the next green chip), a meal after the session, a sixer on the way home, $17 on pump 3, etc.
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Old 04-21-2018, 09:44 PM   #21452
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
The biggest type of tilt I still have is I guess what I'd call "OCD tilt" and it happens when I've decided I'm about to leave. Like my stack is exactly 1004 so I can play one more orbit of 1/2 and still cash out at an even multiple of 100. During the final orbit I tend to play super tight, and there have been several times I've folded a borderline hand like AJ in MP where if I'd played my normal range I would have won a large pot.

Anybody else have this issue? I've gotten a lot better about it by deliberately trying not to track how much money I have. I just bring a bunch of green and black chips. I still get a little OCD about leaving on even intervals of 25 though. I don't like having like three extra red chips.
I do this as well although my other forms of tilt are worse in terms of setting fire to cash. I think it's an OCD thing since I have examples from my day to day life. For example if I'm about to leave somewhere (not just the casino) and it's 7:57 PM for example, I like to wait until 8:00 even. I've had friends and girlfriends point out this quirk of mine over the years.
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Old 04-22-2018, 10:43 AM   #21453
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have "milestone" tilt, where I try to get to/stay at a round number before I leave. I'm ok if it's a bit above, but I hate it being a bit below. The most common manifestation is playing over tight when I'm about to leave (in which case, I should just leave then, but I hate not seeing my free hands).

Woe betide me if I have like $1009, get AK during that last round, open for $20 and then end up having to c/f flop. Now I can't bring myself to leave until I make $11 or more to get me back over $1K.
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Old 04-22-2018, 10:51 AM   #21454
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have "expectation tilt." If I run good a few sessions in a row I dread the next session because I know I'm due some run bad.
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:15 AM   #21455
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Garick - when its time to go, its time to go. When you start thinking different those hands even though they appear to be free are not free. Rack up and GTFO.
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:23 AM   #21456
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
Garick - when its time to go, its time to go. When you start thinking different those hands even though they appear to be free are not free. Rack up and GTFO.
+1000

I think this is one of my biggest improvements as a player. I used to have Garrick’s leak (and still do to some extent) but this past year got really good at leaving as soon as any of these thoughts entered my mind:

“one more orbit”
“thirty more minutes”
“fifty more dollars”
“well I’ll at least play the button/cutoff”

I’ve gotten soooooo good at snap sitting out when any of these thoughts enter my mind. If I get dealt a hand I don’t even look at it. On the button. I don’t care. I muck and leave. At first I was embarrassed to do this but now I confidently tell the dealer I’m done (and sometimes they’ll still deal me a hand because “BUT UR DA BUTTON”) and I just visibly muck it face down and walk away.

A lot of the young guns or pros or whatever they want to call themselves in 2018 think this is some mental game leak. I dunno. I’m still here. 5 years later. Literally no one else in any of my rooms is still here from 2013 (besides long term recs)
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Old 04-22-2018, 12:57 PM   #21457
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
I have "milestone" tilt, where I try to get to/stay at a round number before I leave. I'm ok if it's a bit above, but I hate it being a bit below. The most common manifestation is playing over tight when I'm about to leave (in which case, I should just leave then, but I hate not seeing my free hands).

Woe betide me if I have like $1009, get AK during that last round, open for $20 and then end up having to c/f flop. Now I can't bring myself to leave until I make $11 or more to get me back over $1K.
I suffer from this a little bit in home games (where there aren't always a lot of singles or $5's and cashing out weird numbers is annoying). Much better to tip the dealer the $9 and leave.
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Old 04-22-2018, 02:09 PM   #21458
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
I have "milestone" tilt, where I try to get to/stay at a round number before I leave. I'm ok if it's a bit above, but I hate it being a bit below. The most common manifestation is playing over tight when I'm about to leave (in which case, I should just leave then, but I hate not seeing my free hands).

Woe betide me if I have like $1009, get AK during that last round, open for $20 and then end up having to c/f flop. Now I can't bring myself to leave until I make $11 or more to get me back over $1K.
I remember clearly this one night a few years ago, I crawled back to -$3 from being stuck $400. I was planning on switching casinos and I didn't want to do so stuck for any amount. Yes, my ego was so big that I didn't leave cause of $3. Lost $500 over the next nine miserable, not fun at all hours. It was a soft 1/2 game too.
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Old 04-22-2018, 06:49 PM   #21459
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

lmao that just happened to me the other night, where I was getting ready to leave and noticed my stack with like an exact amount of big chips that I could just take with me and avoid the cage. So I played the rest of the orbit but folded 1-2 hands that I'd have likely played otherwise to have avoided making change.

That being said, I disagree that it means I should have left. It's still equity im getting to realize. If I were to have entered the hand, I would not have given another thought towards my chips/cage scenario -- I simply passed on some marginal EV spots.

That's just finishing an orbit I've already played the blinds for however, if it comes to an entire down where I've already paid rake, then yeah I'd say nah fk that and leave
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Old 04-22-2018, 09:23 PM   #21460
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

2/5 players having 10-30k downswings is most certainly not "standard" or should be expected.

If you have a 20k downer playing 2/5 you aren't nearly as good as you think you are.

I would venture to say over 50% of 2/5 pros don't have a 30k BR, much less enough $ to sustain a 30k swing.
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Old 04-22-2018, 09:33 PM   #21461
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
+1000

I think this is one of my biggest improvements as a player. I used to have Garrick’s leak (and still do to some extent) but this past year got really good at leaving as soon as any of these thoughts entered my mind:

“one more orbit”
“thirty more minutes”
“fifty more dollars”
“well I’ll at least play the button/cutoff”

I’ve gotten soooooo good at snap sitting out when any of these thoughts enter my mind. If I get dealt a hand I don’t even look at it. On the button. I don’t care. I muck and leave. At first I was embarrassed to do this but now I confidently tell the dealer I’m done (and sometimes they’ll still deal me a hand because “BUT UR DA BUTTON”) and I just visibly muck it face down and walk away.

A lot of the young guns or pros or whatever they want to call themselves in 2018 think this is some mental game leak. I dunno. I’m still here. 5 years later. Literally no one else in any of my rooms is still here from 2013 (besides long term recs)


This is still a leak. You're just compensating for one leak by using another. Granted, if you plug a huge leak with a tiny leak, the net gain is positive, so whatever.

The goal should be to be able to say:

“one more orbit”
“thirty more minutes”
“fifty more dollars” <---- NOT THIS ONE
“well I’ll at least play the button/cutoff”

And still play 100% exactly the way you would normally play. If you can't do that, so be it, but that should be the end goal for this particular leak.
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Old 04-22-2018, 09:48 PM   #21462
YGOchamp
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"I'm still here"? What does that have to do with anything. Every (edit: most) pro has leaks, some bigger than others. You being a long-time winning player doesn't mean you don't have leaks.

It's not a big leak by any means, and maybe it's a leak that helps mitigate an even bigger leak thus making it +EV in some weird way, but to say it's not a leak is kinda silly.
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Old 04-22-2018, 09:49 PM   #21463
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If it is a leak, which I’d disagree that it is...I’ve sealed the gaping hole and am allowing the drip. Many people would be better off if they focused on successes using this perspective. (in poker and in life)

It’s like saying an alcoholic is truly recovered when he can have one beer and stop. Really he should just accept he has a problem and never put himself in that situation.

imo
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Old 04-22-2018, 09:59 PM   #21464
YGOchamp
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I can respect that answer, that's all I was saying. It's a leak, but a drip at most.
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Old 04-23-2018, 12:45 PM   #21465
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If Ava's "-EV leak drip" has helped keep him in the game as a winner, which can't be said of anyone else in his rooms, then it's obviously pretty +EV overall for him.

"I'm still here". I actually love that, and I don't think it should be undervalued. It's also one of my proudest accomplishments as well. I get a lot of flack here for my game (some of it well deserved I'm sure), and my year-to-year winrate over the years has fluctuated from awesome to horrible and everything in between, but it's always been positive, and I'm now into my 9th year of my 1/3 NL game. And "I'm still here". Not sure any other winning player in my room can say the same.

Gdowhatyougottadotosurviveinyourgame,imoG
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Old 04-24-2018, 10:28 AM   #21466
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Someone here has an Excel Formula to calculate downswings/upswings?

Like spotting local minimum/maximum and making (max - min) between them?

I'm not sure how to do it

I have one to calculate my winning session streak, but don't think its useful here cause you can have an upswing with a loosing session in it...
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Old 04-24-2018, 10:33 AM   #21467
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

if you've got a running P&L you should be able to spot it pretty easily

i'm guessing you could also use an IF AND function
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Old 04-24-2018, 10:42 AM   #21468
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
if you've got a running P&L you should be able to spot it pretty easily

i'm guessing you could also use an IF AND function
yeh i guess its easy to spot on a graph Profit vs hours which I already have...

It might be masochism to try and do an unperfect formula for it
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Old 04-24-2018, 10:47 AM   #21469
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Google "excel peaks and troughs" or something along those lines and you'll find a ton of info from people who have asked the same question
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Old 04-24-2018, 12:07 PM   #21470
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
I have "milestone" tilt, where I try to get to/stay at a round number before I leave. I'm ok if it's a bit above, but I hate it being a bit below. The most common manifestation is playing over tight when I'm about to leave (in which case, I should just leave then, but I hate not seeing my free hands).

Woe betide me if I have like $1009, get AK during that last round, open for $20 and then end up having to c/f flop. Now I can't bring myself to leave until I make $11 or more to get me back over $1K.
+1, I have this exact same tilt and I desperately want to rid myself of it. I almost get mad when I get dealt JJ/AK type hands in my last few hands.
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Old 04-24-2018, 02:22 PM   #21471
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by stlows View Post
Someone here has an Excel Formula to calculate downswings/upswings?

Like spotting local minimum/maximum and making (max - min) between them?

I'm not sure how to do it

I have one to calculate my winning session streak, but don't think its useful here cause you can have an upswing with a loosing session in it...
=MAX($E$2:E142) - E142

Basically calculates the difference between your current winnings and your "lifetime" winnings.
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Old 04-29-2018, 09:11 AM   #21472
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just to reiterate what's said already, if you can't spot leaks in your own game, then that's a leak in itself. It essentially means you are unable to progress further. Let me tell you, everyone else will be getting better, so if you don't, then you better start planning your exit strategy.
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Old 04-29-2018, 08:04 PM   #21473
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I'm curious if others are seeing this trend I am - there's more people buying in short including more buying in for the minimum at low stakes NLH. I was part of 10 players starting a new game last night, and I was the only one buying in for the max(300) - there was one guy for 250, like 3 or 4 at 200 and 3 or 4 at the minumum, 100.

And it's common for someone to buy in for say 200-300, but never reload and just linger with a small stack until - usually - they lose it or punt it off.

Is this good or bad? I actually don't like it from a poker strategy view, but I think it helps your winrate because these players are generally bad - and it really helps lower your variance. These stacks - although not very big - have an excellent chance of being donated to the table - and the players are not using the short stacks correctly even. Very common to see a player call a 20 raise with SC with a starting stack of 60-80.

I notice I have a very low variance to my play - I jst had a -470 session at 1/3 and it was prolly my worst in about 30 sessions. I have a lot of "boring" sessions where I play say for 5 hours, almost linearly go from 300 to 550 without any real big pots. I'd say 1/3 of my winning sessions are this way. I think it has to do with these short stacks - they just can't hurt you when they flop their sets or hit their draws, but they donate their chips in the process.

Anyone else notice this being a trend?
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Old 04-29-2018, 09:34 PM   #21474
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by businessdude View Post
I'm curious if others are seeing this trend I am - there's more people buying in short including more buying in for the minimum at low stakes NLH. I was part of 10 players starting a new game last night, and I was the only one buying in for the max(300) - there was one guy for 250, like 3 or 4 at 200 and 3 or 4 at the minumum, 100.

And it's common for someone to buy in for say 200-300, but never reload and just linger with a small stack until - usually - they lose it or punt it off.

Is this good or bad? I actually don't like it from a poker strategy view, but I think it helps your winrate because these players are generally bad - and it really helps lower your variance. These stacks - although not very big - have an excellent chance of being donated to the table - and the players are not using the short stacks correctly even. Very common to see a player call a 20 raise with SC with a starting stack of 60-80.

I notice I have a very low variance to my play - I jst had a -470 session at 1/3 and it was prolly my worst in about 30 sessions. I have a lot of "boring" sessions where I play say for 5 hours, almost linearly go from 300 to 550 without any real big pots. I'd say 1/3 of my winning sessions are this way. I think it has to do with these short stacks - they just can't hurt you when they flop their sets or hit their draws, but they donate their chips in the process.

Anyone else notice this being a trend?
It's good for you for sure.
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Old 04-30-2018, 04:25 AM   #21475
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by businessdude View Post
I'm curious if others are seeing this trend I am - there's more people buying in short including more buying in for the minimum at low stakes NLH. I was part of 10 players starting a new game last night, and I was the only one buying in for the max(300) - there was one guy for 250, like 3 or 4 at 200 and 3 or 4 at the minumum, 100.

And it's common for someone to buy in for say 200-300, but never reload and just linger with a small stack until - usually - they lose it or punt it off.

Is this good or bad? I actually don't like it from a poker strategy view, but I think it helps your winrate because these players are generally bad - and it really helps lower your variance. These stacks - although not very big - have an excellent chance of being donated to the table - and the players are not using the short stacks correctly even. Very common to see a player call a 20 raise with SC with a starting stack of 60-80.

I notice I have a very low variance to my play - I jst had a -470 session at 1/3 and it was prolly my worst in about 30 sessions. I have a lot of "boring" sessions where I play say for 5 hours, almost linearly go from 300 to 550 without any real big pots. I'd say 1/3 of my winning sessions are this way. I think it has to do with these short stacks - they just can't hurt you when they flop their sets or hit their draws, but they donate their chips in the process.

Anyone else notice this being a trend?
Even if they donate their whole stack, the rake is going to take at least 10% of it.
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