Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-20-2018, 12:24 PM   #21426
meale
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
meale's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 9,840
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Anyone who loses $30k in a 2/5 is just plain bad. Someone convince me I'm wrong.
meale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-20-2018, 12:26 PM   #21427
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
I've never had a downswing worse than 2k for 1/2 and 1/3 over maybe close to 1k hours lifetime
Up until the ~1,800 hour mark of 1/3 NL, I had never gone on a $1500+ downswing. I then went on a ~$2865 one. And now closing in on 4K hours of 1/3 NL, I've since experienced another ~$2865 one.

Overall, I think it just shows how meaningless / few hands 1000 hours is. Play enough hands, it will definitely happen, it's just really a matter of time.

GcluelessdownswingnoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-20-2018, 02:04 PM   #21428
LordRiverRat
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,513
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Up until the ~1,800 hour mark of 1/3 NL, I had never gone on a $1500+ downswing. I then went on a ~$2865 one. And now closing in on 4K hours of 1/3 NL, I've since experienced another ~$2865 one.

Overall, I think it just shows how meaningless / few hands 1000 hours is. Play enough hands, it will definitely happen, it's just really a matter of time.

GcluelessdownswingnoobG
3k isn't even that bad just 10 BIs. 4k at 1/2 on the other hand sounds way worse.
LordRiverRat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-20-2018, 03:29 PM   #21429
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Even if a person reviews their hands and thinks they played every hand well, there would be other people who thought some of the hands were misplayed. For one, there is more than one way to play most hands and for two, unless you are one of the best players in the world you dont know what you dont know and think you are playing well when you may be playing sub optimally.

Thats a big factor in the difference between a 5BB winner and a 10+BB winner. A 5 BB winner may win $100 on a hand that the better player would've won $150. Get enough hands like that and the good players 10 buy in downswing may have only been a 5 buy in downswing for the excellent player but the good player thinks he played the hands correctly because he believes the way he played them IS correct. He doesnt know what he doesnt know.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-20-2018, 03:36 PM   #21430
sam7595
centurion
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 136
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Comparing win rates of 1/3 vs. 3/5

If you're averaging $30/hr in both 1/3 and 3/5 games, you're crushing 1/3 at 10BB/hr and right in the zone for expectation in 3/5 at 6 BB/hr. And, if my BR is $15k, then I'm 50 BIs for 1/3 and 30 BI for 3/5 meaning adjusting play and risk (of ruin) formulas for the 'bigger' game.

Now, I realize part of the answer is based on which game/table has the larger number of weaker players and/or which game appears most profitable. Also, I understand that sustaining 10BB/hr in 1/3 is statistically unlikely just due to the increase in variance (partially based on stakes level), but 3/5 is that much different, albeit there IS A difference.

I'm inclined to believe that at 3/5, BRM discipline is gonna force you to reign in some areas that you might let loose occasionally in 1/3 because of overall BR, i.e. I can try a light/lihgter 3B! because my overall investment is smaller, say $60-120 vs. $150+

The $30 spends the same away from the table, so are you better off in one game or the other?
sam7595 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-20-2018, 08:54 PM   #21431
Shai Hulud
old hand
 
Shai Hulud's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Tampa
Posts: 1,934
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by niceguy22 View Post
I gotta say that this seems like a major leak. I haven't even been on any kind of a downswing in the past few months, but I honestly rarely play a session without making a mistake. Like probably at least 75% of my sessions have mistakes in them that I recognize afterwards, and there have to be more that I don't even recognize.
I'm not saying I played perfectly but I take copious notes and guarantee you I analyze my hands more thoroughly than 90% of the people on this forum. And no i didn't see any mistakes. It's alarming you would say it's a major leak for me not to notice mistakes in a set of hands you have not seen. You're just assuming the only way to go on a downswing is to make many mistakes and that I'm too daft or dishonest to notice.

I have had many previous losing sessions where I made many mistakes, but that is just not the case here. Again not saying I played perfectly, but I could find nothing significant, any mistakes that cumulatively would account for even a small percentage of the losses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by niceguy22 View Post
Recognizing mistakes is pretty key to not going on prolonged downswings. A good player recently told me that honesty is the key to poker and it is very true.
Agreed but I don't appreciate the implication I'm not being honest, which is evidently based on nothing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
Anyone who loses $30k in a 2/5 is just plain bad. Someone convince me I'm wrong.
Ed Miller never said anything approaching that 30k downswings are normal and you guys are just running wild with the idea that he did. I have the relevant quote in my last post, and what was said was that pros can and do experience 15k downswings. Also keep in mind this is in Vegas where 15k might be just 10BI at some places.

There's an easy way to address all this using mathematics. I could calculate the probabiity of hitting any arbitrary downswing over a certain period given a winrate mu, if I only knew what are reasonable values to use for the standard deviation sigma for say a TAG and a LAG.

I play more aggressively than most at 1/2 so I expect my variance is higher but I don't know how to track this without writing down the results of every hand or at minimum every hour over many hours.
Shai Hulud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-20-2018, 11:14 PM   #21432
DeathCabForTootie
Pooh-Bah
 
DeathCabForTootie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: SHR Tunaments
Posts: 5,722
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

properly applied aggression should lower your variance, not increase it. perhaps you're being overly aggro in the wrong spots.
DeathCabForTootie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-20-2018, 11:39 PM   #21433
Shai Hulud
old hand
 
Shai Hulud's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Tampa
Posts: 1,934
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
properly applied aggression should lower your variance, not increase it. perhaps you're being overly aggro in the wrong spots.
Perhaps I am, but I question the premise that properly applied aggression lowers variance. Sorry but that makes no sense.
Shai Hulud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-20-2018, 11:47 PM   #21434
YGOchamp
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,517
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It makes perfect sense. You aren't reliant on showdown winnings. If your hand MUST hold to yield positive results, it will be high variance. If you're constantly taking down small pots, your WR is less reliant on "big" pots.
YGOchamp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-20-2018, 11:50 PM   #21435
johnny_on_the_spot
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnny_on_the_spot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: S-Mart
Posts: 10,914
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you call, you can only win 1 way
If you bet/raise, you can win 2 ways
johnny_on_the_spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-20-2018, 11:52 PM   #21436
meale
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
meale's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 9,840
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

back into this debate again :')
meale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2018, 12:56 AM   #21437
8o8
veteran
 
8o8's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,885
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Up until the ~1,800 hour mark of 1/3 NL, I had never gone on a $1500+ downswing. I then went on a ~$2865 one. And now closing in on 4K hours of 1/3 NL, I've since experienced another ~$2865 one.

Overall, I think it just shows how meaningless / few hands 1000 hours is. Play enough hands, it will definitely happen, it's just really a matter of time.

GcluelessdownswingnoobG
yup. you sort of just have to assume that you'll have some ungodly stretch of runbad breakeven play every few thousand hours or so.
8o8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2018, 05:23 AM   #21438
LordRiverRat
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,513
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
properly applied aggression should lower your variance, not increase it. perhaps you're being overly aggro in the wrong spots.
Anytime you take an aggressive action as opposed to a passive action (checking or folding), the passive action is 0 EV and has no variance. Where as the aggressive action, even if +EV creates variance because it can either work or not work. So no, aggression definitely does not lower your variance.

EDIT: OK sometimes, and by sometimes I mean rarely, checking has variance because of showdown value (sometimes you're good when you check back a busted draw, sometimes you're not) but even then the variance of bluffing is definitely higher than giving up.
LordRiverRat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2018, 06:00 AM   #21439
ES2
adept
 
ES2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 995
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It kind of seems like people imagine passive nits when talking about TAG play when making this argument and perhaps spewtards when imagining lag play from the other camp.

You can be a TAG and pick your spots to apply aggression in a way that reduces variance. Taking in orphan pots. Selectively light 3 betting an aggro player who is smart enough to know that he must fold. Etc. You don't have to be LAG to do that. And it might work better if you are TAG.

LAGs aren't nec blowing their whole stack everytime they make a pair and they can also choose their spots. However, if you are playing more hands you will get coolered more. And i think at the low stakes many more of those pots are neutral or -ev due to rake and tips than most people realize. Obv playin lots of flips increases variance, even if they are small flips.

You're also going to occasionally bang your head against people who limp AK or it goes 3x call, call and they just call with JJ- KK.

And, while obviously none of us tilt on any fashion and we all have an iron grasp on the game, other people will find that it is much harder to keep their head on straight with LAG play.
ES2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2018, 07:03 AM   #21440
Brokenstars
 
Brokenstars's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 14,545
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

any time you put money in the pot your std deviation increases because you are either winning or losing a bigger sized pot.
Brokenstars is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2018, 07:45 AM   #21441
Shai Hulud
old hand
 
Shai Hulud's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Tampa
Posts: 1,934
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brokenstars View Post
any time you put money in the pot your std deviation increases because you are either winning or losing a bigger sized pot.
^^THIS

Variance is just a measure of how far on average points in a set cluster from the mean. Anything you do to make the pot larger increases variance.

A guy who just sits there and folds every hand has zero variance, for example.

I think what a lot of you mean when you say "X decreases your variance" is really "X decreases your probability of a bad downswing" but those are two different concepts.
Shai Hulud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2018, 08:50 AM   #21442
Avaritia
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
 
Avaritia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Florida
Posts: 12,215
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey it’s this argument again. Lol statistics
Avaritia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2018, 08:50 AM   #21443
samo
Pooh-Bah
 
samo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: NJ
Posts: 4,067
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'd recommend limiting the number of BIs a player risks at a session. Especially so if going through a downer.

Personally, I limit it to two BIs. While I may have lost opportunities to recoup (had I risked more BIs), my game is not the same after getting smacked around.
samo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2018, 01:47 PM   #21444
LordRiverRat
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,513
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by samo View Post
I'd recommend limiting the number of BIs a player risks at a session. Especially so if going through a downer.

Personally, I limit it to two BIs. While I may have lost opportunities to recoup (had I risked more BIs), my game is not the same after getting smacked around.
That's good advice for people who go on tilt when they're stuck. Not so much in general, especially if the table is good. If half my table is whales I'm definitely not leaving after down two BIs.
LordRiverRat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2018, 01:48 PM   #21445
YGOchamp
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,517
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You're underestimating the amount of people that go on tilt.
YGOchamp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2018, 02:10 PM   #21446
Petrucci
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,265
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
You're underestimating the amount of people that go on tilt.
Yup, especially considering all the subtle different kinds of tilt. Most people think of Hellmuths verbal blowups as the only kind of "real" tilt, but obviously thats far from the reality.

People who tilts in a way that they change their game if they are losing is one of the most common theme. Like the tight nit who suddenly starts calling UTG raises with 9-5 suited, wich he have never done in his life before if he is breakeven or up in the game.
Petrucci is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2018, 02:32 PM   #21447
homerdash
banned
 
homerdash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: desert
Posts: 6,062
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

homerdash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2018, 02:34 PM   #21448
VipassanaMan
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 91
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Even if a person reviews their hands and thinks they played every hand well, there would be other people who thought some of the hands were misplayed. For one, there is more than one way to play most hands and for two, unless you are one of the best players in the world you dont know what you dont know and think you are playing well when you may be playing sub optimally.

Thats a big factor in the difference between a 5BB winner and a 10+BB winner. A 5 BB winner may win $100 on a hand that the better player would've won $150. Get enough hands like that and the good players 10 buy in downswing may have only been a 5 buy in downswing for the excellent player but the good player thinks he played the hands correctly because he believes the way he played them IS correct. He doesnt know what he doesnt know.
I agree completely with this, we're blind to what we don't know. I noticed that my own play is weighted towards certain plays that I believe are 'correct'. When I study afterwards I see that there were several options.

I just a made a post regarding a hand and made a comment about the solid style most of us play. While it is 'correct' so to speak, there are definitely drawbacks when we get into repeated patterns. For example I'm able to range tighter players very accurately most of the time. While I'm TAG, I do have some gamble and try to make moves if I think it will take down the pot, using my image.

Anyway, related to not extracting the most value I tend to see most players (mostly on the tighter side) just being terrified of every draw on the board and blowing people out of pots unnecessarily especially heads up....when they could have played the hand a little differently and made more.

For me 'boredom tilt' or 'losing tilt' is also a major leak. I've noticed that if I start a session winning I tend to do better, than when I start a session and get sucked out on or lose. Something definitely happens that affects my play.
VipassanaMan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2018, 06:57 PM   #21449
Shai Hulud
old hand
 
Shai Hulud's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Tampa
Posts: 1,934
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by VipassanaMan View Post
I agree completely with this, we're blind to what we don't know. I noticed that my own play is weighted towards certain plays that I believe are 'correct'. When I study afterwards I see that there were several options.

I just a made a post regarding a hand and made a comment about the solid style most of us play. While it is 'correct' so to speak, there are definitely drawbacks when we get into repeated patterns. For example I'm able to range tighter players very accurately most of the time. While I'm TAG, I do have some gamble and try to make moves if I think it will take down the pot, using my image.

Anyway, related to not extracting the most value I tend to see most players (mostly on the tighter side) just being terrified of every draw on the board and blowing people out of pots unnecessarily especially heads up....when they could have played the hand a little differently and made more.
I don't disagree with any of this and know what Mike is saying but OTOH if I'm better at hand analysis than 9/10 people there's not a lot of value in say posting it here on 2p2 especially when the quality of advice given is so random. I've posted a number of hands on 2p2 and typically I get conflicting advice and just end up re-analyzing the different possible lines myself. And I haven't had any hands I posted that ended in some revelation of me spotting a major leak.

Yeah, I don't know what I don't know, but I also don't know what others opining on a hand don't know.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VipassanaMan View Post
For me 'boredom tilt' or 'losing tilt' is also a major leak. I've noticed that if I start a session winning I tend to do better, than when I start a session and get sucked out on or lose. Something definitely happens that affects my play.
The biggest type of tilt I still have is I guess what I'd call "OCD tilt" and it happens when I've decided I'm about to leave. Like my stack is exactly 1004 so I can play one more orbit of 1/2 and still cash out at an even multiple of 100. During the final orbit I tend to play super tight, and there have been several times I've folded a borderline hand like AJ in MP where if I'd played my normal range I would have won a large pot.

Anybody else have this issue? I've gotten a lot better about it by deliberately trying not to track how much money I have. I just bring a bunch of green and black chips. I still get a little OCD about leaving on even intervals of 25 though. I don't like having like three extra red chips.
Shai Hulud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-21-2018, 08:01 PM   #21450
ES2
adept
 
ES2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 995
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

More briefly, there are a lot of tactics that are lower variance and can be applied by TAGs or LAGs. Another one is to value target the bottoms of ranges more and the tops of ranges less.

So i think this is only one factor in the variance of your style, not the determining factor. A better discussion would probably just be if and how you should reduce variance in your game.
ES2 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:44 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive