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Old 04-09-2018, 02:46 AM   #21351
sejje
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Chumbardo View Post
What's a 5 dollar bring-in? Can someone elaborate?
You can't limp for $2
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Old 04-09-2018, 02:57 AM   #21352
Shai Hulud
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by LoudPacquiao View Post
It makes me laugh when people say this.

What value are you providing to society at your office job cranking out tickets? All you are doing is the same repetitive work for pennies while someone else is making millions or billions off your effort.

Pushing paper in an office isn’t benefiting society. Only the owner of the company.

Getting back on track... If a local
Casino has 1/2 with $5 bring in... will buying in for $200 seriously cripple me? I want to take a 10 BI shot with 2k
Go for it unless busting will represent a major problem for you. 2k may or may not be enough depending how you play. For me it would not be enough.

But if you play like the typical 1/2 nit grinder I can't imagine losing 2k.
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Old 04-09-2018, 08:13 AM   #21353
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Chumbardo View Post
What's a 5 dollar bring-in? Can someone elaborate?
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Originally Posted by sejje View Post
You can't limp for $2
More specifically, it means that if you open, you must open for $5 or more.
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Old 04-09-2018, 02:19 PM   #21354
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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
Go for it unless busting will represent a major problem for you. 2k may or may not be enough depending how you play. For me it would not be enough.

But if you play like the typical 1/2 nit grinder I can't imagine losing 2k.

Thanks. I should note, if it’s not obvious, I’m talking PLO 1/2 with $5 bring in.
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Old 04-09-2018, 02:52 PM   #21355
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by LoudPacquiao View Post
Thanks. I should note, if it’s not obvious, I’m talking PLO 1/2 with $5 bring in.
Then $2000 is basically like 2-3 shots. Definitely not enough to constitute a real "bankroll." I mean, not to say you can't run good and run it up, but you're basically going to be flipping for large percentages of your bankroll several times. Not really the way to go if you want to take poker seriously.

PLO plays like at least 3 times bigger than the same stakes of NL.

But, then again, if you want the excitement of playing in a game way bigger than you are comfortable with, go for it.
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Old 04-09-2018, 03:52 PM   #21356
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

makes sense because ive only ever seen plo have the 5 bring in rule for counting od the pot.

I havent studied the swings of plo to know how the swings compare, but from looking at the table when the game runs, 2k is like an average stack, not a bankroll. stick to nlhe for now if bankroll management is a thing for you.
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Old 04-10-2018, 11:45 AM   #21357
TheShakeDaddy
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm sure this question has been asked but it is kind of hard to comb through hundreds of pages. I turned 21 in January and am a college student and have played 54 hours at 1/2 NL and have recently just ramped up the hours I have been playing. What is a good sample size, in hours, for live NL? I was thinking 500 hours but am not sure. Also to go along with hours, what is a good win rate at 1/2 NL and 2/5 NL? I haven't yet been able to play 2/5 due to brm but am trying grind up.

Thanks!
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Old 04-10-2018, 11:59 AM   #21358
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by TheShakeDaddy View Post
I'm sure this question has been asked but it is kind of hard to comb through hundreds of pages. I turned 21 in January and am a college student and have played 54 hours at 1/2 NL and have recently just ramped up the hours I have been playing. What is a good sample size, in hours, for live NL? I was thinking 500 hours but am not sure. Also to go along with hours, what is a good win rate at 1/2 NL and 2/5 NL? I haven't yet been able to play 2/5 due to brm but am trying grind up.

Thanks!
Some people say there is never a big enough sample size.

I'm in the 500 hours camp personally but keep in mind your game at 500 hours should be completely different than your game at 50 hours.

10 BB's per hour seem to be considered a "good" winrate.
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Old 04-10-2018, 12:34 PM   #21359
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by thin_slicing View Post
Some people say there is never a big enough sample size.

I'm in the 500 hours camp personally but keep in mind your game at 500 hours should be completely different than your game at 50 hours.

10 BB's per hour seem to be considered a "great" winrate.
FTFY
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Old 04-10-2018, 12:42 PM   #21360
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Generally ~1k hours will give you a pretty good idea of where you lay. But 500 hours should suffice to tell you if you're likely a winning player or not, I assume your intention is mostly just to figure out if you're good enough to continue putting more effort into poker.

Hard to get hours in while you're in college. the best play is to grind hard on weekends, but costs your social life. GL
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Old 04-10-2018, 01:52 PM   #21361
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I've played a lot of $1/2 PLO in the last year, with a $2 and a $5 bring in. The $5 makes it a little bigger, but for the most part it's a small difference if you're playing "nit-pot" with a short stack. $2k is pathetically small to handle that game though. If you're playing correctly you'll get into a lot of spots where you'll be coinflipping over dead money, or calling all in preflop with 30% equity against 3 other players. So you can easily get it in good and burn through $2k in no time.

After about 500 hours you should have a good sense for if you're likely to be a winner or not. Your WR may be significantly off your "true" WR still. I have 500 hours sessions where a couple of nasty run-bad stretches put be BE or negative. But I could tell that from the way the hands went and how the money went in.

So you shouldn't point to just a raw number, but you can look at your actual *play* over such a time. (Which may be a year or more playing live as a rec.)

I think that after about 1000 or 2000 hours you have a reasonable number for a WR, but f you haven't become a better player over that time you're doing something wrong.
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Old 04-10-2018, 03:34 PM   #21362
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just got to 1000 hours of 1/2 NLHE last night and figured I'd post my stats here since I read this thread a ton and never post.

Background: Las Vegas grinder, online player
Currently play mostly live 1/2-2/5 PLO, live 1/2-5/10 NLHE, online 0.5/1-3/6 PLO/NLHE.


Bulk of these games are in Vegas although the Seneca stats are from when I lived in Buffalo NY. I never table select and I usually play in pretty terrible games due to promos (TI/Southpoint, Harrahs, Ballys). You can see how much better my WRs are in non promo games due to no nit promo grinders just sitting around breaking even. These win rates do not include the extra money I make from the promos being run in the rooms.

Here are my 1000 hour stats over every room I've played in filtered for 1/2, 1/3, 2/3 NLHE.






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Old 04-10-2018, 03:54 PM   #21363
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoudPacquiao View Post
It makes me laugh when people say this.

What value are you providing to society at your office job cranking out tickets? All you are doing is the same repetitive work for pennies while someone else is making millions or billions off your effort.

Pushing paper in an office isn’t benefiting society. Only the owner of the company.

Getting back on track... If a local
Casino has 1/2 with $5 bring in... will buying in for $200 seriously cripple me? I want to take a 10 BI shot with 2k
Honestly, $2k is just not enough of a BR for 1/2 PLO. You're going to get into a lot of spots where you're flipping with a bit of dead money, or have 40% in a 3-way all in, etc. Go play if you like, but even if you're a winner you can't expect 2k to be sufficient. Note I'd say the same thing even with the $5 bring in, which just makes the game a bit bigger.
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Old 04-10-2018, 04:45 PM   #21364
YGOchamp
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playing PLO with 10 buy ins is absurd.
It's absurd for nl also, but plo is like absurdly absurd.
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Old 04-10-2018, 09:14 PM   #21365
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500 hours is nothing. 1k hours minimum and even then you don't want to extrapolate from actual results but rather feel how you stand in the game. 2k hours is I think where you start to get a reasonable sample.
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Old 04-10-2018, 09:57 PM   #21366
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500 hours is nothing. 1k hours minimum and even then you don't want to extrapolate from actual results but rather feel how you stand in the game. 2k hours is I think where you start to get a reasonable sample.
I agree. I was winning around 12-13 Bb/hr for my first 500 hours and I was terrible for the first few hundred. I’m currently on a streak online where in my last 9000 hands I’m winning around 33bb/100, even adjusted for all in EV. That’s about 300 hours of live play.
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Old 04-11-2018, 03:11 AM   #21367
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I got set over setted 3 times in about 900 hands (25 hours) in Feb.
As much as I respect Garick's opinion, I think he slipped a decimal somewhere. In about 1500 hours at roughly 30 hands an hour, (45,000 hands) I have been set over seated probably 40-50 times... roughly once every thousand hands.

After the first twenty times or so, I stopped trying to set mine 55- and it seemed to slow down a little bit.

These rare events like set over set are so rare that one guy's limited experience is not at all equivalent to a Monte Carlo evaluation but it does make one question the "15,000 hand" statement.
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Old 04-11-2018, 08:05 AM   #21368
Garick
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Not sure what my opinion has to do with the above?
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Old 04-11-2018, 08:31 AM   #21369
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Originally Posted by meale View Post
500 hours is nothing. 1k hours minimum and even then you don't want to extrapolate from actual results but rather feel how you stand in the game. 2k hours is I think where you start to get a reasonable sample.
Lots can happen in 500 hr blocks. Big heaters/nasty coolers/etc. However, after loggin 5 hunnit hours you should "know" how much edge u got.

I no longer coach - but when people would ask me for coaching I would have them write down on paper either in essay format or bullet points EXACTLY where their edge comes from at the game they play. The response would give me insight to their thought process and how best to tailor their training sessions.

Their responses also happened to really correlate to their w/r - which obv makes a lot of sense.

Point being - if you are @ 500 hours and are unsure if you are any good...you prolly are not. Cuz after 500 hours if you are stomping the game (regardless of how much you have won - you know it). You can literally talk for 45+ minutes as to how you exploit every player type and where exactly your edge comes from. You will seldom get lost in hands or be confused etc.
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Old 04-11-2018, 08:53 AM   #21370
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Lots can happen in 500 hr blocks. Big heaters/nasty coolers/etc. However, after loggin 5 hunnit hours you should "know" how much edge u got.

I no longer coach - but when people would ask me for coaching I would have them write down on paper either in essay format or bullet points EXACTLY where their edge comes from at the game they play. The response would give me insight to their thought process and how best to tailor their training sessions.

Their responses also happened to really correlate to their w/r - which obv makes a lot of sense.

Point being - if you are @ 500 hours and are unsure if you are any good...you prolly are not. Cuz after 500 hours if you are stomping the game (regardless of how much you have won - you know it). You can literally talk for 45+ minutes as to how you exploit every player type and where exactly your edge comes from. You will seldom get lost in hands or be confused etc.
This is pure gold.
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Old 04-11-2018, 08:54 AM   #21371
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Originally Posted by Nozsr View Post
As much as I respect Garick's opinion, I think he slipped a decimal somewhere. In about 1500 hours at roughly 30 hands an hour, (45,000 hands) I have been set over seated probably 40-50 times... roughly once every thousand hands.

After the first twenty times or so, I stopped trying to set mine 55- and it seemed to slow down a little bit.

These rare events like set over set are so rare that one guy's limited experience is not at all equivalent to a Monte Carlo evaluation but it does make one question the "15,000 hand" statement.
Im sorry but I do not believe this.
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Old 04-11-2018, 09:06 AM   #21372
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Im sorry but I do not believe this.
Don't believe what exactly?
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Old 04-11-2018, 09:16 AM   #21373
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

People (myself included) tend to exaggerate their run bad and downplay their run good
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Old 04-11-2018, 09:25 AM   #21374
MikeStarr
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Don't believe what exactly?
I dont believe he was set over setted 40-50 times in 1500 hours. I'll start with the fact that its so mathematically improbable that I dont believe it, but lets add in the fact that he says "probably 40-50 times". So he obviously didnt actually count (which I do by BTW). Hes just thinking back and trying to estimate. When someone tries to estimate and comes up with a number that is THAT statistically improbable (especially something that isnt a positive situation), Im calling BS.

Last edited by MikeStarr; 04-11-2018 at 09:33 AM.
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Old 04-11-2018, 09:26 AM   #21375
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This is pure gold.
+1


Excellent points Squid, i totally agree.
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