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Old 03-09-2018, 03:20 PM   #21226
ZippyThePinhead
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Nice results Zippy.

Expecting to add 40%+ to your winrate easily just due to focus is a little bit optimistic.

GimoG
I disagree.

1/2 and 1/3 players are just awful and I often pay just enough attention to not slow the game down. I'm not a super nit though and get away with a lot of shenanigans due to my nitty image.

Unfortunately this is just my opinion as I have no data to back it up.


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Old 03-09-2018, 03:26 PM   #21227
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Max buy in was just raised to $1000. Rake is $5+$2. How does that make a difference in this hand? Actually the deeper people are the more likely they will call $40 which means in your 100BB buy in game you will get called almost never if you do this. Especially with your image. My image is quite different than yours and I still wont get called here more than 10-15% of the time.

Ive done this same thing playing 1/2 which is $300 max (almost nobody buys in for $300. Lots of $60-$175 type stacks) and rake is still $5+$2. 5 people limp...raise to $25 and watch them all fold one after the other.
Is the 2-5 pretty much good all the time?

I've been playing recreationally but I'm debating quitting the job hunt down here and just playing for a living again. The 1/2 is comical like we had briefly touched on elsewhere. All these senior citizens try to analyze hands and tell me how I should be playing lol.
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Old 03-09-2018, 03:58 PM   #21228
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by APG View Post
Is the 2-5 pretty much good all the time?

I've been playing recreationally but I'm debating quitting the job hunt down here and just playing for a living again. The 1/2 is comical like we had briefly touched on elsewhere. All these senior citizens try to analyze hands and tell me how I should be playing lol.
No games are really good all the time like they used to be but there's really no tough games at 2/5 or lower imo. Potential winrates are dependent on games being loose enough that people are losing a lot as compared to the games where everyone nits it up pre and still sucks but barely loses, because it's hard to lose much if you play tight pre and aren't a moron.

If you want to make enough to play full time you'll likely have to put in a good amount of effort (and cause yourself a good amount of stress) to loosen up the games you're in/get an image as an action guy (without actually being one).

But really only one thing matters:

Spoiler:


Just my opinion, from experience.
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Old 03-09-2018, 05:18 PM   #21229
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Re: Hit N Running as a BR management tool

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If your risk of ruin is that great then you simply must not play this game. Again, you cant really build a roll hit n running just to preserve what little money you have. Lets say you had $200 to your name, 1 single buyin. You would be better served having an epic night running it up to $1000+ or whatever than you would quitting every time you double up, because you arent likely to double up enough between sessions to counter the times you get felted or just bleed chips from a bad night. The circumstances that make for a good game dont come around all the time. Never underestimate the power of momentum. When you're running hot people play differently against you. HECK you play differently against them. Your confidence will be high, you'll be making all the right moves, their confidence will be low, they'll be afraid of you because somehow you always have it, etc etc etc. These are all tangible attributes that contribute towards your bottom line. Coming back the next day with a non-threatening 100BB stack to re-grind just puts you back at plan A which is "hope for the best".

No this would never be profitable. What do you do if you lose 3 hands in a row then win 1, you quit while youre down? Shortstack strategy isnt really profitable live at all because the game is typically already running with short effective stacks considering in a 1/2 game the standard opening raise is often $15. You're basically playing with 5-10 BB's if you bought in for the minimum and will get nowhere.



No it's completely different. If you were in a 2/5 game and ran it up to $1500 do you feel the game flow would play the same as a single buyin shot at 5/10? The preflop sizing will be different, the quality of players will be different, the blinds themselves will take a greater toll on you and you'll lessen your FE as your stack diminishes, the risk aversion will be different since the prospect of losing 300BB's in a 1/2 game feels much scarier than losing 150BB's in a 5/10 game.
When you decide to leave the game has nothing to do with whether you can make profitable decisions while you are playing. That makes zero sense, it's broscience.

Shortstacking live is probably more profitable than it ever was online (on a single table, anyway), because it's way easier to get paid off with your monsters as open raises are often closer to 5x or 6x the big blind naturally rather than 3x, though the higher rake might bring it more in line with how profitable it was online.

I noted that it wasn't the exact same, but the prospect of putting 3 buyins in the middle on a flip or 60/40 is a ticket to play scared unless you're rolled very well.
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Old 03-09-2018, 05:24 PM   #21230
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by water69 View Post
No games are really good all the time like they used to be but there's really no tough games at 2/5 or lower imo. Potential winrates are dependent on games being loose enough that people are losing a lot as compared to the games where everyone nits it up pre and still sucks but barely loses, because it's hard to lose much if you play tight pre and aren't a moron.

If you want to make enough to play full time you'll likely have to put in a good amount of effort (and cause yourself a good amount of stress) to loosen up the games you're in/get an image as an action guy (without actually being one).

But really only one thing matters:

Spoiler:


Just my opinion, from experience.
So I am familiar and concur with some of the things you put forth. The big culture shock for me from going from playing for a living to joining corporate America to having to move from Texas to South Florida is that in Texas, where I only played at WinStar in Oklahoma to having casinos in abundance in this market. Which is swooning me into just going back to playing cards and grinding 2/5 and occasionally 5/10 like before.

I was really asking because I know what room he plays in mostly and none of the people "look" good so it was a very ignorant and superficial question based on stereotypes to get an answer from someone who's more knowledgable.

Also, it's inconsequential, but in a 200BB cap, would you recommend always keeping at least 4000BB for a game that runs that deep? All this deep-stack, button straddling, $2 chips, high hand stuff is all new to me surprisingly enough lmao.

Also, in regards to the spoiler, that's pretty much what I tell myself in my head to stay disciplined. Eventually you run good. Just play properly, let the run good occur, and let others make the mistakes.
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Old 03-09-2018, 05:53 PM   #21231
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

i think i set the record in this thread for never moving up ive got about 30,000 hours of $1-2 NL over 25+ yrs. during this time i won anywhere from $10k to $46k per year, but never once had the money to move up in stakes due to 75% or more of the money constantly going to hotel expenses and a little bit to non poker actitvities.

im now in a game with 2/3 blinds $40-300 buyin and its incredibly loose. if u make it $33 preflop u get like 5 or 6 callers with the winner having 78 offsuit. i got down over 190 and then recovered when i made my 4th and final buyin for 300. my first buyin was 40, my 2nd was 61, and my third was 100. a $40 buyin doesnt go far with $2/3 blinds but its my usual initial buyin and im at 37 an hour for this room for the 4-5 days ive been here. up over 700 in all but as usual most all of it goes for my hotel which prevents moving up. if i wasnt worried about taking big losses which i cant afford id quit martingaling my buyins and buyin a little more than 40.

i think for as little as i buyin, my win rate means a lot more than if i bought in for more. one of the regulars ran his stack up to 1400 then lost it all back. there were many many deepstacks on the table. if u have never been in southern california u will have no idea how beatable the games are.
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Old 03-09-2018, 05:58 PM   #21232
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
i think i set the record in this thread for never moving up ive got about 30,000 hours of $1-2 NL over 25+ yrs. during this time i won anywhere from $10k to $46k per year, but never once had the money to move up in stakes due to 75% or more of the money constantly going to hotel expenses and a little bit to non poker actitvities.

im now in a game with 2/3 blinds $40-300 buyin and its incredibly loose. if u make it $33 preflop u get like 5 or 6 callers with the winner having 78 offsuit. i got down over 190 and then recovered when i made my 4th and final buyin for 300. my first buyin was 40, my 2nd was 61, and my third was 100. a $40 buyin doesnt go far with $2/3 blinds but its my usual initial buyin and im at 37 an hour for this room for the 4-5 days ive been here. up over 700 in all but as usual most all of it goes for my hotel which prevents moving up. if i wasnt worried about taking big losses which i cant afford id quit martingaling my buyins and buyin a little more than 40.

i think for as little as i buyin, my win rate means a lot more than if i bought in for more. one of the regulars ran his stack up to 1400 then lost it all back. there were many many deepstacks on the table. if u have never been in southern california u will have no idea how beatable the games are.
This is awesome (ossum)! Any chance you can post a graph for us?
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Old 03-09-2018, 06:27 PM   #21233
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no because only the last 2 yrs of my current iphone will have records stored on any type of tracking program. i use poker income. for many years i didnt keep records and im estimating for many of those years i knew i was a winner, because i had no other income and paid my living expenses.
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Old 03-09-2018, 06:42 PM   #21234
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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no because only the last 2 yrs of my current iphone will have records stored on any type of tracking program. i use poker income. for many years i didnt keep records and im estimating for many of those years i knew i was a winner, because i had no other income and paid my living expenses.
Bummer on not having a graph but congrats on the grind! Good luck!
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Old 03-09-2018, 10:07 PM   #21235
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Did 1-2nl even exist 15 years ago?
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Old 03-09-2018, 10:18 PM   #21236
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by APG View Post
So I am familiar and concur with some of the things you put forth. The big culture shock for me from going from playing for a living to joining corporate America to having to move from Texas to South Florida is that in Texas, where I only played at WinStar in Oklahoma to having casinos in abundance in this market. Which is swooning me into just going back to playing cards and grinding 2/5 and occasionally 5/10 like before.

I was really asking because I know what room he plays in mostly and none of the people "look" good so it was a very ignorant and superficial question based on stereotypes to get an answer from someone who's more knowledgable.

Also, it's inconsequential, but in a 200BB cap, would you recommend always keeping at least 4000BB for a game that runs that deep? All this deep-stack, button straddling, $2 chips, high hand stuff is all new to me surprisingly enough lmao.

Also, in regards to the spoiler, that's pretty much what I tell myself in my head to stay disciplined. Eventually you run good. Just play properly, let the run good occur, and let others make the mistakes.
I also moved from Texas to S. Florida and also played a good amount at Winstar. IMO, the games at Winstar are some of the softest in the country. The room I play in definitely has better 2/5 players than the avg room Ive played in around the Country. Ive also recently asked several snowbirds if my room or their room back home is tougher and they have all said they do better back home.

The 2/5 games in my room are fairly soft during snowbird season but very tight/nitty during off season especially during the daytime. The season doesnt affect the evening time play all that much because the snowbirds are all older guys who mostly play during the daytime.

So in summary...
from November-early March the games are really good.
The rest of the year the games are good in the evening but if you play daytime you have to adjust your game and LAG it up or expect to never get paid off on anything.

If you can beat the daytime summer 2/5 games for more than 7BBs/hr you are expert level IMO.
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Old 03-10-2018, 01:47 PM   #21237
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Not to derail the fascinating discussion ongoing in this thread about the sustainability of a 10bb/hr winrate.

I thought that I would post up my 6 month giraffe of $1/3 NL $300 max results. I'm about to start dipping my toes in the $2/5 game in my room as I am now sitting with a little over a $12k roll and feel that losing a BI or two will hardly be a big deal and I can always drop down if I need to.

I had a super hot run as you can see but have struggled for the last 80hrs or so with a little run bad. Nonetheless, I set my self a goal of moving up to 2/5 when I hit 10k profit and 6 months of play. Both have been met this month so its time.

$2/5 here I come

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Old 03-10-2018, 02:20 PM   #21238
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Nice run! 80hr breakeven stretches are pretty standard, dont let that deter you.
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Old 03-10-2018, 02:23 PM   #21239
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by BlueSpade84 View Post
Not to derail the fascinating discussion ongoing in this thread about the sustainability of a 10bb/hr winrate.

I thought that I would post up my 6 month giraffe of $1/3 NL $300 max results. I'm about to start dipping my toes in the $2/5 game in my room as I am now sitting with a little over a $12k roll and feel that losing a BI or two will hardly be a big deal and I can always drop down if I need to.

I had a super hot run as you can see but have struggled for the last 80hrs or so with a little run bad. Nonetheless, I set my self a goal of moving up to 2/5 when I hit 10k profit and 6 months of play. Both have been met this month so its time.

$2/5 here I come

Way to smash your goal. Good luck moving up.

Play good run better.
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Old 03-11-2018, 01:19 AM   #21240
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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$1/2 winrates are capped by rake.

Without rake a lot of people would theoretically be winners, but the rake makes it so that the first few bb/hr you "win" are spent offsetting losses from rake. And everyone loses so much to the rake that top winrates will be significantly capped. Do the math yourself. Large casinos rake in 8 figures every year, it is always the biggest winner and the single biggest reason why winrates are capped.

I'm definitely calling BS on anyone claiming to have a true winrate significantly higher than 10 bb/hr (which is extremely hard to achieve by itself).

I have over 10000 hours of poker played lifetime, online and live. My first 2 months of playing $2/5 live full-time I made $32K, for a winrate of 20 bb/hr. I was by far the best player in my room, but was that my true winrate? **** no man, I ran hot as hell and won tons of big pots and rarely lost them. After 500 hours I still maintained a winrate close to 18 bb/hr and used the money to buy myself an expensive car, which is still my car today. Needless to say, that winrate did not last.

I currently play mostly $10/20, and I'm a far better player now than I've ever been, and do you know my winrate over the past 18 months? It's positive, but barely. And I know why it is what it is. In that time period I've been set over set around 10 times in big pots (at least 150 bb lost). I set over set someone only once (for a much smaller 60 bb). I've put tons of money in with big pairs to have people spike underpairs on me in big pots, and lost numerous big pots in spots where I flopped the nuts and lots of money went in and I lost to draws. Meanwhile my own draws seemed to hit about 15% less than they statistically should have.

But whatever, I'm not saying this to feel bad for myself because I've had multiple times in the past where I ran hot for 500-hour stretches and made more than I should have. You know what's common about every hot strech that anyone's ever had? You simply got very lucky at avoiding coolers. Your overpairs help up, your value-betting hands got clean boards to keep betting, and you hit plenty of sets and draws and people just gave you money. During a hot streak you may think you ran normal and won at your true winrate but the truth is you ran hot in a lot of ways that you don't realize.

The nature of live poker makes it so that there will always be some people who are running extremely hot for even thousands of hours, but even those people never maintain their inflated winrates and come back to earth eventually, it might just take a few years. I have seen it many times.

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Old 03-11-2018, 02:18 AM   #21241
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Poker is an amazing Game and it's wonderful in so many facets but it will destroy you if you're not honest with your self.

And the easy thing to forget is that for every 1 story of a 'successful' poker player on this board there are 20+ that tried, failed, and just never posted, or posted/bragged/gloated and just disappeared.

Don't stop trying if you like the game and want to learn and play well but don't delude your self into thinking it'll be an easy 50k+ job a year with no effort / no studying.
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Old 03-11-2018, 03:27 AM   #21242
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Originally Posted by BlueSpade84 View Post
Not to derail the fascinating discussion ongoing in this thread about the sustainability of a 10bb/hr winrate.

I thought that I would post up my 6 month giraffe of $1/3 NL $300 max results. I'm about to start dipping my toes in the $2/5 game in my room as I am now sitting with a little over a $12k roll and feel that losing a BI or two will hardly be a big deal and I can always drop down if I need to.

I had a super hot run as you can see but have struggled for the last 80hrs or so with a little run bad. Nonetheless, I set my self a goal of moving up to 2/5 when I hit 10k profit and 6 months of play. Both have been met this month so its time.

$2/5 here I come


So if I'm reading this correctly you made 10,500ish in 211 hours? So 50$ an hour at 1/3 300 max? I would be prepared for some runbad.
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Old 03-11-2018, 11:48 AM   #21243
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That is correct. I've been on a heater granted my game is pretty soft, but I've had some epic heat.
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Old 03-11-2018, 01:04 PM   #21244
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At live low stakes games, I find it hard to believe we get more than 28 hands per hour.
You have dealer changes, bank refill, slow players, drunk players, players who don't pay attention & unaware it's their turn, players taking 15 seconds to decide whether to call $3 preflop, etc. etc.

If the average rake per hand is $4 & they rake $2 for the BBJ that's $168 per hour going off the table. Plus your wannabe 10BB winner per hour is $198.

The BBJ isn't really a rake to me, because if I play 1450 hrs a year & win an avg of 3 hands per hour, that's $4350 in BBJ rake out of my pots. I've been playing ~1400 hours since July 2014 & have never won less than $3k in promo money. I've already won $4.2K this year due to being at a BBJ table where I got $3.2K after tipping the dealer.

I have a friend who plays full-time & chases the best promo in the 3 different casinos & won over $6K last year. That is $4.00 an hour playing 1500 hours a year which is about what he does, as he has rentals he owns & other life responsibilities.

I have another friend who puts his promo chip winnings in a sock at home & it finances most of his Vegas trip every year.

So the BBJ rake really isn't much of a rake for those who play a lot of hours.
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Old 03-11-2018, 01:11 PM   #21245
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Promo-drop is value neutral or a little bit -EV in jurisdictions that let promo money be used for marketing as well as going back to players. On the negative side, you are very likely to never reach the "long run" in promo money, especially if the promos are only hard to hit BBJs, and not high-hands, hot seats, etc. On the plus side, promos and giant BBJs draw in bad players and help off-set the drain.
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Old 03-11-2018, 01:28 PM   #21246
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Agree you won't get all the BBJ money raked from your pots. I didn't know they could use it for marketing. It was my understanding it had to be returned to the players & that the promos they had was the marketing.

The casinos in MD are putting less in the big BBJ & more for monthly promos. Also, at MGM if you have AQ vs. JJ & board comes QQQJJ, that's the big BBJ because AQ used both cards, so the pot doesn't get very big. It use to get up to 200K at one casino & I've never seen it above $75k at MGM.

Anyway, I'm going to Detroit next month, going to get my quad 2s cracked by quads, take my $300K+ & run off to a country that doesn't have extradition agreement with the U.S. Suggestions? U.A.E. is too hot for me.
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Old 03-11-2018, 03:22 PM   #21247
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Agree you won't get all the BBJ money raked from your pots. I didn't know they could use it for marketing. It was my understanding it had to be returned to the players & that the promos they had was the marketing.
They can't use the promo money to spend on marketing, but they can market the fact that they have good promos to draw people in to play.
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Old 03-11-2018, 03:28 PM   #21248
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Depends on the state. Some allow them to use that money for specific other purposes, others require it all to go back to the players, others allow them to keep "admin costs" out of it.
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Old 03-11-2018, 03:57 PM   #21249
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Agree you won't get all the BBJ money raked from your pots. I didn't know they could use it for marketing. It was my understanding it had to be returned to the players & that the promos they had was the marketing.

The casinos in MD are putting less in the big BBJ & more for monthly promos. Also, at MGM if you have AQ vs. JJ & board comes QQQJJ, that's the big BBJ because AQ used both cards, so the pot doesn't get very big. It use to get up to 200K at one casino & I've never seen it above $75k at MGM.

Anyway, I'm going to Detroit next month, going to get my quad 2s cracked by quads, take my $300K+ & run off to a country that doesn't have extradition agreement with the U.S. Suggestions? U.A.E. is too hot for me.
The loser only gets 40% there. You'd get about $250k right now.

Also, you're a bit late to the party. The last jackpot hit in January at a record high.

BBJ: $1,068,590.80

Loser of the hand (40%): $427,452.52
Winner of the hand (20%) $213,712.76
Table share (40%, split 4-ways): $106,856.28

Also, your promo win-rate will never be realized over your lifetime. The variance of a BBJ is ridiculously high. You're lucky to have won any money from the BBJ at all. You should get at least a table share about once every 100,000 hands, which is more than a lifetime of live poker for some people. Even for a full-time player it's about two years to expect it to hit, but you could easily go a lifetime with nothing.
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Old 03-11-2018, 06:16 PM   #21250
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If you're only getting 28 hands per hour, your dealers suck. Count the number of hands for a few sessions. Ive counted many times and the avg is right around 40. A little higher when theres no action. A little lower in the evening when there's more big pots.
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