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Old 03-08-2018, 08:02 PM   #21201
Katman
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
GG where do you play? I'll be sure to never play poker in your area.
Why??....if GG can make $21 per hour....how bad could it be?
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Old 03-08-2018, 08:25 PM   #21202
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You guys have no idea how badly I want to move to GGs area and play in his poker room for a while.
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Old 03-08-2018, 08:25 PM   #21203
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

GG, next time you go play, start a $2/5 1k max interest list and ask players at your 1/3 game if they wanna play 2/5.

seems like that's an easy way to out pace the rake dontchathink?

DCifyoubuildittheywillspewFT
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Old 03-09-2018, 01:57 AM   #21204
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
You guys have no idea how badly I want to move to GGs area and play in his poker room for a while.
It is the Frozen North. It will probably kill your Florida accustomed ass.

Warm weather all year = 2bb/hr WR. Easy.
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Old 03-09-2018, 06:56 AM   #21205
poppunk
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Hit N Running as a BR management tool

I'm very recently getting back into live play, I hadn't played at a casino in over 4 years prior to last week. Trying to seriously beat $1/2 NL for the first time in my life, I was always primarily a limit player in the days of abundant online US poker. If only I lived in California or Nevada, I wouldn't have to try to get good at no limit

I was just thinking about my last 2 sessions. The first one I got up to about double my buyin (100 BB buyin), my session was growing long and I glanced around at the table. 2 solid players matched my stack and the bad or mediocre players all had 50 BB or less. I got up and left.

Then, my most recent one, I had tripled up my buyin (100 BB buyin). One probable pro/semi-pro had me covered and 2 other middling players had probably 200 BBs. I got up and left.

I set aside a very limited amount of money for my current poker foray, an amount that wouldn't hurt me in any real way if it was lost. But the limited amount means I really need to reduce variance when I can. I feel like when I get up to 200 BBs, I really shouldn't play anymore unless all or most of the other large stacks are poor players. I don't want to play like scared money but I also don't want to risk playing for stacks when I have multiple buyins on the table against strong players.

I'm just spit-balling, sorry if this is kind of a thought salad. What do you guys think? Should I be ashamed to leave for 30 minutes (or whatever the rule is) and start fresh when I run it up?
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Old 03-09-2018, 07:31 AM   #21206
xSlingshot66
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Re: Hit N Running as a BR management tool

Yes, you should be. Either leave for the day or buy back for what you left with.

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Old 03-09-2018, 07:46 AM   #21207
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Re: Hit N Running as a BR management tool

Consider for a second your own observations; the good players play deep and the fish play shallow. Which one are you?

The truth is you will never have game changing nights, weeks, months, or seasons without playing as deep as you can possibly get. You can have career changing sessions that put you so far ahead in terms of winrate that you are able to withstand any future downswings for quite awhile. Those 50BB fish still have a collective 200BB on the table worth taking. So dont butt heads with the regs, or go after them when you have the advantage such as being in position. It's not like they're so significantly better than you that they're going to pull out all the tricks and chip away at your stack until you're back to 100BB's.

You wont do well long term if you only win 100BB on your best nights, because it is very easy to lose more than that on your worst nights, repeatedly. Your results graph needs to have big upswings to counter those big downswings. What you should really be doing is setting a stop loss, not a stop win. Play until you start screwing up. Last night I punted 2 buyins at 2/5 live, once when villain check-raised into 2 of us on a dry flop so I called with TPTK and we got it in on the turn. The other was when I misread the board not realizing my opponent could have likely a ton more equity on a turn card that I put him allin and got snapped off by the nuts. I was getting sloppy and immediately quit. I still ended the session 200BB's in profit.

Just force yourself to get comfortable playing deep. Set yourself something like a 200BB stoploss so even if you're up 1000BB's you quit if at any point you donate 200 of that back.
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Old 03-09-2018, 07:51 AM   #21208
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Re: Hit N Running as a BR management tool

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Originally Posted by xSlingshot66 View Post
Yes, you should be. Either leave for the day or buy back for what you left with.

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I usually do leave for the day because it's typically been hours at this point. However, I don't really see the harm in taking a break to reduce my variance. Putting in a stop win when being a large stack isn't particularly advantageous seems smart, especially when you're on a limited roll. Your entire stack is always at risk in NL, and once you win money, it's yours after all. If I'm playing with $600 in a $1/2 game with lots of other $600 stacks, it's not all that much better than if I were to just buyin full to a $2/$5, which I would never do on my limited roll.
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Old 03-09-2018, 07:59 AM   #21209
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Re: Hit N Running as a BR management tool

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Consider for a second your own observations; the good players play deep and the fish play shallow. Which one are you?

The truth is you will never have game changing nights, weeks, months, or seasons without playing as deep as you can possibly get. You can have career changing sessions that put you so far ahead in terms of winrate that you are able to withstand any future downswings for quite awhile. Those 50BB fish still have a collective 200BB on the table worth taking. So dont butt heads with the regs, or go after them when you have the advantage such as being in position. It's not like they're so significantly better than you that they're going to pull out all the tricks and chip away at your stack until you're back to 100BB's.

You wont do well long term if you only win 100BB on your best nights, because it is very easy to lose more than that on your worst nights, repeatedly. Your results graph needs to have big upswings to counter those big downswings. What you should really be doing is setting a stop loss, not a stop win. Play until you start screwing up. Last night I punted 2 buyins at 2/5 live, once when villain check-raised into 2 of us on a dry flop so I called with TPTK and we got it in on the turn. The other was when I misread the board not realizing my opponent could have likely a ton more equity on a turn card that I put him allin and got snapped off by the nuts. I was getting sloppy and immediately quit. I still ended the session 200BB's in profit.

Just force yourself to get comfortable playing deep. Set yourself something like a 200BB stoploss so even if you're up 1000BB's you quit if at any point you donate 200 of that back.
You're absolutely right that it's not optimal to quit just because I have a lot of chips if I have an edge in the game, but risk of ruin has to take precedence over maximizing value. I disagree with your observation that you have to be willing to play super deep to be a winning player, that's simply not true. You could potentially buy-in with 25BBs and play raise-shove poker and leave every time you double profitably. Very boring way to play though and there's not much money in it.
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Old 03-09-2018, 08:00 AM   #21210
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Re: Hit N Running as a BR management tool

#1 Rule of Gambling: Leave while you're ahead
#1 Rule of Poker: Table selection
#1 Rule of Life: Listen to your instincts

If you are happy with a 50 or 100BB win, then leave, nothing wrong with that and I wish I'd done that lot's of times.

If the regs are dominating the table and it doesn't feel profitable, leave.
A $50 win is a lot better than a $100 loss. Sometimes small ball is good.
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Old 03-09-2018, 08:40 AM   #21211
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
It is the Frozen North. It will probably kill your Florida accustomed ass.

Warm weather all year = 2bb/hr WR. Easy.
Maybe I could become a snowbird?
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Old 03-09-2018, 09:10 AM   #21212
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Hit N Running as a BR management tool

There’s nothing wrong with leaving a table when you’re deep stacked and the only other deep stacks are better players. That’s simply good game selection. But this really shouldn’t happen that often at 1-2, and if you find yourself getting up too frequently, then maybe you’re just playing scared.

A nine-handed table can still be good even if you have a significant skill disadvantage against two other players, as long as there are also a couple of spots at the table. Just stay out of the way of the good players. If you’re a winning player, they won’t be seeking you out either.

Also, you’re probably greatly overestimating how good your opponents are if you think you are routinely facing multiple strong players are 1-2 or 1-3. It just doesn’t happen that often. And when it happens in my rooms (The M8trix and Bay101), it’s because they’re waiting for the 2-5 game and in another 30 minutes or so they’ll leave the table anyway. Just wait them out.

Finally, there are other options besides packing up and going home. If your room is big enough, you can ask the floor for a table change. Or the next time someone in a better position gets up, you can ask for a seat change closer to the left of the good player. He’d have to be quite a bit better than you to make up for a positional disadvantage six or seven out of nine hands dealt, especially if you’re both deep.


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Old 03-09-2018, 09:18 AM   #21213
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Re: Hit N Running as a BR management tool

At some point you should learn to play deep. There is more money to win and it maximizes the value of your skill advantage. Also because if you are a winning player you should end up with a deep stack and leaving a table you are beating is not good strategy. But until you have the bankroll and experience to handle it limiting how much money you have on the table is fine.

Keep in mind that short stacking will reduce the absolute amount you can lose at one time it actually increases variance. Because you will be committed more often with AK preflop and with draws postflop you should be all in more often with smaller edges.
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Old 03-09-2018, 09:37 AM   #21214
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I’ve lurked in this thread for awhile, but this is my first post here. I work full time and I live with my fiancé, so my poker time is limited. But I’m trying to put in more hours, and I figure a public posting can work as a commitment device.

Over the last year I’ve managed to play only 57 hours. I play almost exclusively 1-1-3 in Bay Area rooms, with the rare 2-5 when my rich friend (tech money) comes out with me and talks me into it. According to Poker Income, I’m at 17/BB per hour at 1-1-3, although that number might be utterly worthless over such a small sample size.

All that said, here’s my (modest) goal: By the end of the year, I’d like to have 250 hours logged. Given what I’ve played so far, that’s a little more than five hours per week. I should be able to get that by going a bit more often and slightly extended my sessions. And if you guys hold me accountable.

I promise to post updates and hopefully I’ll soon have a sample size that’s slightly more meaningful.


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Old 03-09-2018, 10:45 AM   #21215
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Re: Hit N Running as a BR management tool

Quote:
Originally Posted by poppunk View Post
I set aside a very limited amount of money for my current poker foray, an amount that wouldn't hurt me in any real way if it was lost. But the limited amount means I really need to reduce variance when I can. I feel like when I get up to 200 BBs, I really shouldn't play anymore unless all or most of the other large stacks are poor players. I don't want to play like scared money but I also don't want to risk playing for stacks when I have multiple buyins on the table against strong players.
This is exactly why you should quit instead of playing with a large percentage of your bankroll in play.

There is nothing wrong with quitting and it's actually the right thing to do in your situation.
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Old 03-09-2018, 10:51 AM   #21216
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I am in the GG camp on the issue of win rates and like him i am kind of surprised that most people on here don't think the same! When i started on here 10bb/hr was quoted as a rate that if you were really good, you could get there. In the games at the time (2004-2006) i remember the rake as capped at $4 and the limit reached at $60. That quickly changed to $4 by $40 with an extra $1 at $20 for bbj (so a cap of $5 by $40). Now for the most part you are seeing $4+2, $5+1 and even $5+2 usually with it all taken out by at least $60 in the pot. Its just math, playing the same stakes, win rate goes down if rake is higher. Now take into account that villains don't stack off with QJ on a J high flop at the rate they did in 2006, and it is even harder.
To throw some of you guys a bone, DCFT, Squid; if it was achievable by 15% back then, it is probably achievable by 1-2% now. And that 1-2% probably wont stay at $1/2 or $1/3 to do it.
SUB7bbhrwr@1/310bbhrwr@2/5oversmallsamplesizeMERGED
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Old 03-09-2018, 11:07 AM   #21217
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Nobody is saying 10bb/hr is easy. I agree that very few can do it. I think the 1-3% of players is probably a pretty good estimation.

However, I completely disagree with anyone who thinks 10BB/hr is easier at 2/5 than it is at 1/2 or 1/3 due to rake being a bigger factor at lower stakes. The skill difference in the average 2/5 player compared to the avg 1/2 player is a much bigger factor than the rake is.
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Old 03-09-2018, 11:31 AM   #21218
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Nobody is saying 10bb/hr is easy. I agree that very few can do it. I think the 1-3% of players is probably a pretty good estimation.

However, I completely disagree with anyone who thinks 10BB/hr is easier at 2/5 than it is at 1/2 or 1/3 due to rake being a bigger factor at lower stakes. The skill difference in the average 2/5 player compared to the avg 1/2 player is a much bigger factor than the rake is.


Disagree with your second statement. My guess is that in most casinos that run $2-5, tonight (a Friday) most will have have at least one 10bb/hr crusher. Because of the fact that at $1-3 and $1-2 a 10bb/hr winner will move up, most casinos that would have a 10bb/hr winner tonight at low stakes wont have one. Which is good for me because i play $1-3. Your argument really can only be made in a vacuum. It almost cant be demonstrated. Over the last couple of years i have seen too many hands get to showdown where i think to myself "where is all the $$" and it will be 2 guys playing their hands passively as bluff catchers unwilling to put $$ in the pot without the nuts. I think some of that is attributed to the high rake in these games.
Also, more whales show up to $2/5 than $1/2 or $1-3. Before i get taken out of context, i am not saying $2/5 is easier than $1/3. But i am saying for a crusher that 10bb/hr is easier at $2/5 than $1/2 or $1/3. The lower stakes are just too passive and rake too high!
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Old 03-09-2018, 12:00 PM   #21219
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I think youre comparing how many people crush 1/2 and how many crush 2/5. Im comparing my personal results at 1/2 and 2/5. The rake is the same at both stakes in my room. My results at 1/2 (in terms of BB/hr) are significantly higher at 1/2 than 2/5.

There may be more whales that show up at 2/5 than 1/2, but there are way way more people playing 1/2 who literally dont know how to play. When I played 1/2, I would see people who didnt know what a straddle was. I saw people who didnt know what "buying the button" was. Some had to be told over and over when the action was on them. Im not saying every table is like that, but I would say there are as many completely clueless 1/2 players as there are total whales playing 2/5.

I put in about 650 hours of 1/2 (a little of that is 1/3). I can honestly say I saw exactly 1 player whose game I respected and I thought would do really well at 2/5.

Im sure its a different story in rooms where 1/2 or 1/3 is the only game, but in rooms Ive played in where they have multiple stakes, the lowest game is so soft that a good player will just completely demolish it.
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Old 03-09-2018, 12:26 PM   #21220
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Submerged View Post
Disagree with your second statement. My guess is that in most casinos that run $2-5, tonight (a Friday) most will have have at least one 10bb/hr crusher. Because of the fact that at $1-3 and $1-2 a 10bb/hr winner will move up, most casinos that would have a 10bb/hr winner tonight at low stakes wont have one. Which is good for me because i play $1-3. Your argument really can only be made in a vacuum. It almost cant be demonstrated. Over the last couple of years i have seen too many hands get to showdown where i think to myself "where is all the $$" and it will be 2 guys playing their hands passively as bluff catchers unwilling to put $$ in the pot without the nuts. I think some of that is attributed to the high rake in these games.
Also, more whales show up to $2/5 than $1/2 or $1-3. Before i get taken out of context, i am not saying $2/5 is easier than $1/3. But i am saying for a crusher that 10bb/hr is easier at $2/5 than $1/2 or $1/3. The lower stakes are just too passive and rake too high!
The more passive the 1/2 or 1/3 game is the easier it is to win.

From my limited experience 10BB per hour is much easier at 1/2 and 1/3.
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Old 03-09-2018, 12:34 PM   #21221
gobbledygeek
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Re: Hit N Running as a BR management tool

This is an excellent strategy, imo, especially if you feel outmatched when deep. ETA: In regards to leaving tables when deep against good opponents. Obviously if you're deep but no one else is or if your deep opponents are terrible then much more reason to stick around (leaving just to book the win is much more of a meh reason although it's your life so whatever). And obviously another option is to get good at playing deep (easier said than done, though).

Instead of leaving the room, another option is to find a shorter stacked table (maybe one that has just recently started or one where anyone else sitting deep you don't consider a threat), and then attempt to move your stack to that table (where you will then be effectively sitting shorterstacked again).

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 03-09-2018, 12:40 PM   #21222
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Re: Hit N Running as a BR management tool

It's pretty bad for the game to get a big stack, cash out, and come back an hour later with a regular starting stack. The players you win the money from don't like it (most likely fish) and they'll start to not want to play with you / pay you off. It's frowned upon and borderline unfair.

With that being said, if you're done for the day, then sure, it's fine to leave if the conditions aren't good.
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Old 03-09-2018, 02:14 PM   #21223
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Re: Hit N Running as a BR management tool

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You're absolutely right that it's not optimal to quit just because I have a lot of chips if I have an edge in the game, but risk of ruin has to take precedence over maximizing value.
If your risk of ruin is that great then you simply must not play this game. Again, you cant really build a roll hit n running just to preserve what little money you have. Lets say you had $200 to your name, 1 single buyin. You would be better served having an epic night running it up to $1000+ or whatever than you would quitting every time you double up, because you arent likely to double up enough between sessions to counter the times you get felted or just bleed chips from a bad night. The circumstances that make for a good game dont come around all the time. Never underestimate the power of momentum. When you're running hot people play differently against you. HECK you play differently against them. Your confidence will be high, you'll be making all the right moves, their confidence will be low, they'll be afraid of you because somehow you always have it, etc etc etc. These are all tangible attributes that contribute towards your bottom line. Coming back the next day with a non-threatening 100BB stack to re-grind just puts you back at plan A which is "hope for the best".

Quote:
I disagree with your observation that you have to be willing to play super deep to be a winning player, that's simply not true. You could potentially buy-in with 25BBs and play raise-shove poker and leave every time you double profitably. Very boring way to play though and there's not much money in it.
No this would never be profitable. What do you do if you lose 3 hands in a row then win 1, you quit while youre down? Shortstack strategy isnt really profitable live at all because the game is typically already running with short effective stacks considering in a 1/2 game the standard opening raise is often $15. You're basically playing with 5-10 BB's if you bought in for the minimum and will get nowhere.

Quote:
If I'm playing with $600 in a $1/2 game with lots of other $600 stacks, it's not all that much better than if I were to just buyin full to a $2/$5, which I would never do on my limited roll.
No it's completely different. If you were in a 2/5 game and ran it up to $1500 do you feel the game flow would play the same as a single buyin shot at 5/10? The preflop sizing will be different, the quality of players will be different, the blinds themselves will take a greater toll on you and you'll lessen your FE as your stack diminishes, the risk aversion will be different since the prospect of losing 300BB's in a 1/2 game feels much scarier than losing 150BB's in a 5/10 game.
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Old 03-09-2018, 02:43 PM   #21224
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Im gonna go out on a limb and say that any 1/2 game currently being spread in this Country that is not raked higher than $5 + $2 is beatable for higher than 7BB/hr.

You just cant sit there and wait for premium hands and play 16/5. Learn how to play better post flop and play 23/17 ish and the game can be crushed like an aluminum can.
2,958 hours I've recorded total at mix of 1/2 and 1/3 for 7.36bb per hour.

I'm better now than at the beginning with data backing that up. But also this is a hobby for me and as such low stress is important. 75% of my time at the table is also spent watching movies or tv on my phone. If I actually put effort in to focus all the time no doubt at least 3bb more per hour should be easily attainable.



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Old 03-09-2018, 02:51 PM   #21225
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nice results Zippy.

Expecting to add 40%+ to your winrate easily just due to focus is a little bit optimistic.

GimoG
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