Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-07-2018, 06:52 PM   #21151
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
That's a nice story Mike.

Looks like you're playing in a 2/5 NL game? What's the max BI / rake in that game?

GnotremotelyrelevanttotheconditionsI'mdiscussing?G
Max buy in was just raised to $1000. Rake is $5+$2. How does that make a difference in this hand? Actually the deeper people are the more likely they will call $40 which means in your 100BB buy in game you will get called almost never if you do this. Especially with your image. My image is quite different than yours and I still wont get called here more than 10-15% of the time.

Ive done this same thing playing 1/2 which is $300 max (almost nobody buys in for $300. Lots of $60-$175 type stacks) and rake is still $5+$2. 5 people limp...raise to $25 and watch them all fold one after the other.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 07:01 PM   #21152
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,436
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Max buy in was just raised to $1000. Rake is $5+$2. How does that make a difference in this hand? Actually the deeper people are the more likely they will call $40 which means in your 100BB buy in game you will get called almost never if you do this. Especially with your image. My image is quite different than yours and I still wont get called here more than 10-15% of the time.

Ive done this same thing playing 1/2 which is $300 max (almost nobody buys in for $300. Lots of $60-$175 type stacks) and rake is still $5+$2. 5 people limp...raise to $25 and watch them all fold one after the other.
Again, I mostly want to stay away from strat here, but the game conditions you describe (2/5, 200bb BI, relatively sweet $5+2 rake) is simply not the conditions I'm discussing.

It always seems I'm discussing A when everyone wants to chime in with their examples of B. A and B are not the same, and shouldn't be treated the same with regards to what can be accomplished in them; that's kinda my whole argument. You don't disprove that by showing a whole bunch more B examples.

GcluelessconditionsnoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 07:03 PM   #21153
squid face
ChatThreadPrez
 
squid face's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: grabbin c-notes from the money tree
Posts: 10,299
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Homey D. Clown View Post
This is quite sad. I actually feel for you.
thx man

I am just over it. I remember tellin my wife when black friday happened I thought that I had 2 maybe 3 years of casino dwelling in me. I sacked up and cranked out nearly 7 years. Luckily, I am not a complete assclown and have a nice size nest egg and am taking some serious time off. Its kind of funny - I was on a really sick heater when I stopped playing. What happened was my woman SPC broke her leg kite boarding. And I stopped playing to take care of her. 1 week turned into 6 and I am really having a great time not going to the casino.

Maybe that will recharge me (doubt it). But I have never been a one dimensional dude and have a ton of interests and things I do that inspire me. Its just that after 25+ years gamboolin aint one of em.
squid face is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 07:12 PM   #21154
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Again, I mostly want to stay away from strat here, but the game conditions you describe (2/5, 200bb BI, relatively sweet $5+2 rake) is simply not the conditions I'm discussing.

It always seems I'm discussing A when everyone wants to chime in with their examples of B. A and B are not the same, and shouldn't be treated the same with regards to what can be accomplished in them; that's kinda my whole argument. You don't disprove that by showing a whole bunch more B examples.

GcluelessconditionsnoobG
Tell me what the difference is. There was nobody at my table at the time with more than 100BB (besides me). 5 people limped and I raised 8BBs. They all folded because they have trash which is why they limped.

That can be done in any game 1/2 game where people will have 40-100BBs. The rake doesn't even matter at all if its no flop no drop. I play in other rooms that do rake preflop and I dont alter my play one iota. If you are thinking about rake and adjusting your raise sizes and things like that to try to manipulate the rake total, you're doing it all wrong. We arent talking about a room that rakes $15 per hand. Your rake isnt much different than most paces in the U.S.

I swear you are the most hard headed person Ive ever talked to. You keep harping about how its impossible to win X amount and people are telling you that you are wrong and some have even told you a few things youre doing wrong. You dont want to change. You just want to show everyone that you are right so that you can justify not changing. Why change your game if its impossible to win more than you already are?

Thats clearly what you think and your win rate slowly and continually drops. The rest of us are facing higher rake, more educated players and all of those same factors, but yet we are winning at the same or higher rates than ever because we are improving and not staying stagnant.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 07:16 PM   #21155
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,885
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I've addressed one part of this already (i.e. not everyone has other steaks they can move up to nor want to even if they did).

And what's so difficult about achieving 4000 hours at a level? I have a once-a-week rule with the wife and still get in 500+ hours a year. Seems to me it would be very simple for rec players who love poker as a hobby to get in much more. I talked with a rec the last session out who claims she plays almost every night, and considering she, like a lot of others, seems to be there every single night I play, this doesn't sound too farfetched. 800+ hour years for devoted nothing-else-much-going-on-in-their-lives recs seems very reasonably attainable to me.

GcluelesshoursnoobG
I'd argue that if there isn't a higher stake (you're making my hungry for a chunk of cow with your misspellings BTW) available in your market, you can't really play professionally. You're at maybe $40k/yr before taxes and insurance and whatnot. Not exactly a great career choice. So you either have to get a different job or move to someplace with tastier stakes.


If you're playing once a week and getting 500 hours in, you're putting in 9.6hr sessions. Those are really long sessions for a rec player. (Or anyone.) I expect that someone playing "almost every night" to be more in the 3-4 hour range. Ask the woman you spoke to about it the next time you chat with her. 5 nights a week at 4 hours a session is 1000 hours a year. So 4 years for your sample. That's a long time for many people to dedicate to a hobby.

But again, we're getting into the question of if a "rec" player is putting in the effort to maximize their WR. I think that by definition they're not. Hence the "rec" part. It doesn't sound like you are. I'm not anymore. (Don't have the time with work, and I'm skating 3 times as much as I used to to ward off becoming a fat ass instead of grinding.) But we can still put up 7bb/hr without hassle.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 07:30 PM   #21156
Dizzyqtp
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dizzyqtp's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 7,385
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Gg really needs to get banned from this thread this is getting insane.
Dizzyqtp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 08:16 PM   #21157
ES2
adept
 
ES2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 995
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Guy limps [1/3NL] @ MGM National Harbor, MD: You raise to $18 limper calls.

$40 - $4 rake $2 BBJ = $34 [$18 yours]

Flop: XXX

V bets $20, you call, last $1 in rake taken Pot $73 [$38 of it yours]

You take it down on the turn.

You profit $73 - your $38 = $35 net profit + the $5 + $2 = $42. 7/42 = 17%

I've won $300 in promo money this week & last year I won ~$3.3K in promo money, so can you really count the BBJ as rake that you never get back?

Also, if you're playing at a 1/3NL at the MGM where the avg pot is $100, you're a fool, because there are 18 1/3NL games going & somewhere in that room are games with pots that avg $200+.
Assuming rake is a %, I try to avoid taking flops with round amounts like $40.

An average pot of $200 would be great. Certainly, games differ widely.

As to your promo question, this is my assessment.

Yes, the dollar you put in in this situation is more or less a dollar you never really get back, for practical purposes.

In the little side game of promos, you want to put in the minimum number of dollars and take out the max.

Depending on the nature of the promos, you might be doing better in some spots than others. Like, you can make quads with PPs more easily.

If it's a BBJP most of your hands are drawing dead pre and are therefore simply giving up a dollar into the pool when you win.

If it were, say, splash pots, or a freeroll, the promo drop could be acceptable or even +ev, but you'd still have a dollar less in your pocket for every dollar you put into it.

So, I think when there is a promo drop, you have to tighten up a notch pre, especially if you are playing with an eye to winning a small pot.
ES2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 08:24 PM   #21158
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,103
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

10 bigs an hour is easier than gg believes but way harder than 99% of the rest of the forum believes.

A bunch of people with meaningless sample sizes arguing semantics is a waste of time.

A meaningful sample size is going to be in the tens of thousands of hours. If you think you know what your actual long term win rate is after 2000 or 4000 hours or whatever small sample size you are referencing then it shows your obliviousness to variance (in my humble opinion of course).
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 08:46 PM   #21159
ES2
adept
 
ES2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 995
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913 View Post
Can this be discussed a bit more? I currently live in an area that only supports $1/2 or the very occasional $2/5, but I'm traveling to an area that has a wide selection of $2/5 and I'll have a few days to play but am debating if I should play 1/2 or 2/5. I am adequately rolled for a $2/5 game but am curious the general thought on how much better the players are at $2/5. I know this is a tough question to give a quantitative answer to, but just interested in some different perspectives.
I'd say give it a shot. Probably the biggest factor will be the size and affluence of the area. If a lot of people can comfortably play 2/5 for fun, the games will be fine.
ES2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 09:27 PM   #21160
crsseyed
old hand
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 1,887
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
10 bigs an hour is easier than gg believes but way harder than 99% of the rest of the forum believes.

A bunch of people with meaningless sample sizes arguing semantics is a waste of time.

A meaningful sample size is going to be in the tens of thousands of hours. If you think you know what your actual long term win rate is after 2000 or 4000 hours or whatever small sample size you are referencing then it shows your obliviousness to variance (in my humble opinion of course).
This is the most intelligent post I've read in this thread in the last 4 days....
crsseyed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 09:58 PM   #21161
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,660
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by homerdash View Post
Garick, i don’t understand why GG is allowed to incessantly post AIDs in this thread and the high stress thread (not to mention the individual strat thread that i don’t read but if i do, look who’s AIDsing), and we can’t talk about tangential live poker topics.
Because he's not trolling and he's not being disrespectful. He's posting his honest opinion. I disagree with a lot of it, and think he's gotten way too stubborn lately, but that doen't make it trolling.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
And what's so difficult about achieving 4000 hours at a level? I have a once-a-week rule with the wife and still get in 500+ hours a year. Seems to me it would be very simple for rec players who love poker as a hobby to get in much more. I talked with a rec the last session out who claims she plays almost every night, and considering she, like a lot of others, seems to be there every single night I play, this doesn't sound too farfetched. 800+ hour years for devoted nothing-else-much-going-on-in-their-lives recs seems very reasonably attainable to me.

GcluelesshoursnoobG
Several things. One, most rec players aren't here. They aren't interested in the amount of work that discussing strat on 2+2 is, and they probably aren't tracking their results, or at least not 100% honestly. You are frankly an anomaly in being here and engaged in strat, but unwilling to move beyond what you learned several years ago. And, frankly, your opinions have hardened to "you kids get off my lawn" level over the last year or so.

Two, very few recs put in the session lengths you do. My average is under 4 hours, for example.

Three, it doesn't take a crusher anywhere close to 4K hours to build a roll for a higher level, if available. I did it in 400 hours.

Four, lots of recs get bored and move on if they can't move up. (See anomaly comments above). I have less than 50 hours over the last year. Of those, less than 10 are $1/2, and I just played that because I was already there and it was all that was running. And I'm one of the few who still really like poker. $1/2 has no challenge to me anymore though, and the money available playing it is meaningless, so why bother?

Five, No one is going to grind the **** out of 1/2 "to prove you wrong." Why should they bother?

Six, by the time you get 4K hours in a game, both the game and (hopefully) your play have changed so much that the idea of a common "true winrate" throughout is likely meaningless.

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
10 bigs an hour is easier than gg believes but way harder than 99% of the rest of the forum believes.
This.

Quote:
A bunch of people with meaningless sample sizes arguing semantics is a waste of time.

A meaningful sample size is going to be in the tens of thousands of hours. If you think you know what your actual long term win rate is after 2000 or 4000 hours or whatever small sample size you are referencing then it shows your obliviousness to variance (in my humble opinion of course).
Not this. You don't know what your actual WR is, but it doesn't take 10s of thousands of hours to get a 95% confidence rates with reasonable bounds. You won't know your mythical "true winrate,' but you can be 95% confident that it lies between (for example) 8BB/hr and 16BB/hr (which happens to be my most recently figured 95% confidence interval).

And remember that statistically, I'm as likely to be running like crap with an expected WR of 14BBhr+ as I am to be running like god with a true WR below 10BB/hr. I am not a stats expert, but I believe these are bell-curve distributed, with my most-likely WRs clustered near my observed WR.

Of course, outliers exist, but that doesn't make smaller samples statistically meaningless. It is far more likely that GG's reduced WR over the last 1K hours is more due to rake and game condition changes in that time than it is to GG running poorly. Obv, it's not due to his playing style changing.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 10:12 PM   #21162
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,103
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Garick, think about how often those “big pots” exist. Now think about how often it would take to achieve an actual expected value in those pots.

The edges you are trading in small pots does not come anywhere close to contributing to those large win rates. If you’ve played anything over a few thousand hours of live poker and have the slightest sense of objectivity you should be able to cast your ego aside and say the majority of live poker is entirely influenced by variance.

You’ve got people like IkeCarr that say they win $x/hr and then they post strat that barely passes for break even poker. I guess it’s human nature that everyone thinks they are a crusher when they are really just flopping sets in 3! pots.

If you want to know if someone is a winning player just observe their strat posts. Everything else is noise.

PS: the reason your 95% confidence interval is irrelevant is the same reason variance calculators are - you’re assuming constant conditions and results which only takes two sessions to realize that no two sessions are ever alike.

If you think you have reached the expected value of all the possible permutations of hand results that are possible in a few thousand hour sample size than I don’t know what else to contribute here. Common sense and intuition should indicate you are just scratching the surface.

Last edited by johnnyBuz; 03-07-2018 at 10:20 PM.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 10:22 PM   #21163
pocketzeroes
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,333
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

For what it’s worth, when I started playing again last year, I took a super aggressive stance on BR management. I basically decided i’d start playing 1/2 and take a shot at 2/5 as soon as I won $1600 at 1/2. If I lost money at 2/5, I’d make sure I covered that plus some at 1/2 before moving back up.

Out of well over 1k hours I’ve logged, I have a total of only 47 hours logged at 1/2. I’ve probably won a bit over expectation, but my results are a little over +$1700 for a winrate of 18.1 BBs/hour. (I had actually moved up to 2/5 about 5-10 hours of play before this, but ran flat since - only play 1/2 rarely when I’m waiting for another game)... Yes I know this is a meaningless sample size - the point is that I moved up ASAP, so I will never have the amount of history GG is looking for.

After doing well at 2/5 for a while, I now mostly play 2/5/10 and 10/10 NLHE, and occasionally play 5/5 PLO (which is bigger than a $10 BB NLHE game), and have taken a couple bigger shots at 10/10 PLO and 10/25 NLHE.

I know that 1/2 games are generally much easier to exploit than 2/5 games, and 2/5 games are generally much easier than bigger games (mostly because of the other good players/pros at the table who will dig in considerably to your WR). Because of this, I have no doubt at all that well over 10BBs/hour is attainable at most 1/2 games... But you have to exploit exploitable spots.
pocketzeroes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 11:03 PM   #21164
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,660
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Oh, I have no doubt variance is a stone cold *****, and I definitely am not saying that any one person is not an outlier. I'm just saying that it's not meaningless. The abyss is as likely to hit at the beginning (in which case someone stops playing) as at the 2.4K hour mark, or in a bunch of crevices.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 11:20 PM   #21165
YGOchamp
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,532
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
If there's something even more Sasquatch around here than 10bb+/hr, it's $100K+/yr.

Gnotbuyingwhatyou'resellingG
??????????
You don't think anybody makes more then 6 figures???
Obviously not at 1/2... im saying crushers arent playing 1/2 bcuz they want to make 6 figures.... and you're saying... nobody in poker is making that? lol ok yeah youre trolling

GG also keeps asking for a graph/proof when we've had MULTIPLE great answers as to why that won't happen from various people.

He just doesn't care, so yeah I'm out of this convo getting dumb at this point
YGOchamp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 11:27 PM   #21166
Tomcee
stranger
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 5
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hello guys I play 1/2 300 max (I always buy in 200$ tho) (rake 10% up to 5 + 1bbj) in the last 7 months I record total 319 hours and my win rate after rake,tips to dealer and coffee is 5.07$/h. Already had a big 6buy in downswing and not too long ago started winning again! So I was just wondering.. What do you guys think about my winrate? Is it super terrible ?
Tomcee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 11:33 PM   #21167
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,660
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Too soon to say. You're winning though, which is better than most players. Keep it up!
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 11:33 PM   #21168
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,103
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Oh, I have no doubt variance is a stone cold *****, and I definitely am not saying that any one person is not an outlier. I'm just saying that it's not meaningless. The abyss is as likely to hit at the beginning (in which case someone stops playing) as at the 2.4K hour mark, or in a bunch of crevices.
I’m not talking about the abyss. I’m talking about meaningful sample sizes.

You get set over setted every 15,000 hands. If you think you can have a 95% confidence interval expected win rate at 2000 hours which is 65,000 hands than I say you are out of your mind, inexperienced or some combination of the two.

Since I know you are not inexperienced I don’t know what you are basing your numbers on.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2018, 11:38 PM   #21169
johnny_on_the_spot
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnny_on_the_spot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: S-Mart
Posts: 10,941
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
??????????

You don't think anybody makes more then 6 figures???

Obviously not at 1/2... im saying crushers arent playing 1/2 bcuz they want to make 6 figures.... and you're saying... nobody in poker is making that? lol ok yeah youre trolling



GG also keeps asking for a graph/proof when we've had MULTIPLE great answers as to why that won't happen from various people.



He just doesn't care, so yeah I'm out of this convo getting dumb at this point


His "challenge" is so specific that it borders on absurd. I live less than 1 hour from probably 8 rooms and I'm not sure a single one of them would meet his conditions because their max buy ins at 1/2 or 1/3 are > 100bb and they all run stakes higher than 1/3 typically. I feel like the only way that this "challenge" could be met is by playing in some podunk room for 2-4 years that is super isolated from the poker community so they never change anything, which sounds awful.

Obv no real player is going to give it a go unless GG offered like 500k against the prop, because the amount of lost wages would be staggering
johnny_on_the_spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2018, 12:04 AM   #21170
Koss
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Playing Recreationally
Posts: 6,058
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomcee View Post
Hello guys I play 1/2 300 max (I always buy in 200$ tho) (rake 10% up to 5 + 1bbj) in the last 7 months I record total 319 hours and my win rate after rake,tips to dealer and coffee is 5.07$/h. Already had a big 6buy in downswing and not too long ago started winning again! So I was just wondering.. What do you guys think about my winrate? Is it super terrible ?
It's higher than probably 80% of the people in the room you play in. What I like about this thread is that it gives you an idea for the typical winrates that people are achieving, as well as the types of downswings experience. Maybe you're a it on the low side, but you could just be running bad over the 319 hours. Or you're not good and you're running hot. Just focus on learning from us here and on playing good poker.

As for the GG/winrate discussion, he plays 1/3 right? How much different is 1/2 from 1/3? One thing I've noticed is standard raises tend to be the same for both structures, and the increased bb doesn't have as big of an impact on game size. 1/2 games tend to play "bigger" in terms of blinds than 1/3. The buy ins are deeper, with the typical buy in being $200-$300 regardless of structure. So a 7bb/hr winrate at 1/3 would equal a 10.5bb/hr winrate at 1/2?

Also GG, do your games allow straddles or button straddles? The button straddle has become insanely popular in my room lately, and depending on table anywhere from 10-50% of pots are straddled in a given night. That makes our deep 1/2 game play more like a medium stacked 2/5 against the same crap players. I think that helps with winrates as well.

Either way, I could care less about the discussion as to what winrates are ultimately achievable or whatever. I really just like this thread up to date with the winrates of grinders so newbiews can learn the types of earnings and swings achieved by us when starting a low stakes journey.
Koss is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2018, 12:18 AM   #21171
setintostraight
adept
 
setintostraight's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 854
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Guy limps [1/3NL] @ MGM National Harbor, MD: You raise to $18 limper calls.

$40 - $4 rake $2 BBJ = $34 [$18 yours]

Flop: XXX

V bets $20, you call, last $1 in rake taken Pot $73 [$38 of it yours]

You take it down on the turn.

You profit $73 - your $38 = $35 net profit + the $5 + $2 = $42. 7/42 = 17%

I've won $300 in promo money this week & last year I won ~$3.3K in promo money, so can you really count the BBJ as rake that you never get back?

Also, if you're playing at a 1/3NL at the MGM where the avg pot is $100, you're a fool, because there are 18 1/3NL games going & somewhere in that room are games with pots that avg $200+.
As someone who also plays at MGM NH, how do you deal with what you said? There may be much more loose games available, but at prime times (I have a full time job), e.g. Friday and Sat. nights, there's always a wait list so switching tables isn't that easy.

Also, in your experience, have the games gotten worse once the promotions died down? I seem to be getting into tables with a lot of regs frequently.

This is somewhat offtopic, so if you want to take this to PM, we can. Please don't think im trying to encroach on your casino btw, im not good enough to make more money than my job-job with poker. I would just like to have fun, while beating rake.
setintostraight is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2018, 12:30 AM   #21172
Badreg2017
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Florida
Posts: 2,901
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomcee View Post
Hello guys I play 1/2 300 max (I always buy in 200$ tho) (rake 10% up to 5 + 1bbj) in the last 7 months I record total 319 hours and my win rate after rake,tips to dealer and coffee is 5.07$/h. Already had a big 6buy in downswing and not too long ago started winning again! So I was just wondering.. What do you guys think about my winrate? Is it super terrible ?
Somethings like 90% of people are losing players. Plus you probably are paying something like $16 an hour in rake. Seems like you are off to a solid start but the sample size is small.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 03-08-2018 at 12:38 AM.
Badreg2017 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2018, 12:45 AM   #21173
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I’m not talking about the abyss. I’m talking about meaningful sample sizes.

You get set over setted every 15,000 hands. If you think you can have a 95% confidence interval expected win rate at 2000 hours which is 65,000 hands than I say you are out of your mind, inexperienced or some combination of the two.

Since I know you are not inexperienced I don’t know what you are basing your numbers on.
I got set over setted 3 times in about 900 hands (25 hours) in Feb.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2018, 01:02 AM   #21174
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,103
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Cool story Hansel. Has no relevance on the discussion at hand.

It did help me win $20 on my prop bet that you would respond making it about you.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2018, 05:13 AM   #21175
homerdash
banned
 
homerdash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: desert
Posts: 6,062
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Cool story Hansel. Has no relevance on the discussion at hand.

It did help me win $20 on my prop bet that you would respond making it about you.


Hansel running so hot right now Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

i’m with you on sample size and variance, also survivorship bias with people posting larger (for live poker) samples ITT elsewhere
homerdash is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:21 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive