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Old 03-07-2018, 02:47 PM   #21126
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
FWIW I'm of the position that 10bb/hr is MORE likely to be achievable in the high rake environments because the quality of play is so much lower.

But often this 10bb/hr thing comes largely down to structure. I'd be willing to bet my left nut that no one on earth could win @ 10bb/hr at Crown Melbourne 1/2. My left nut.
These two statements seem contradictory to me, no?

GcluelesscontradictorynoobG


Quote:
Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
II said this earlier, but I don't think a top notch player's rate should be much different between 1/3 and 2/5. Because:

Rake is lower.

Players sit deeper.
These 2 reasons make it make it much more likely that higher winrates are possible at bigger games due to the crippling rake being outrun.

GcluelesscripplingrakenoobG


Quote:
Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
I think addressing these spots is probably the best thing to do, really. I thought about starting a thread but I'm not sure if it's appropriate.

I had one the other day. It was just like a video. Bad rec who played half his hands limped. Folded to me. Button and blinds were really tight. I raised SCs. Everyone folded to the limper. He called. He donked the flop, which gave me a gutshot and backdoor flush. It was a textbook float spot, given my hand and the situation. The turn was an ace and gave me an FD. He check folded.

I paid 20% of my winnings to rake and tip. If I'd raised a dollar more pre, I'd have paid another dollar. This was with no promo drop.

Is this a winning play?
This is a very good question, imo.

Again, in crippling rake conditions, you have to be that much better than your opponents to have these plays profitable. In games that outrun the rake, it's not nearly as much a concern.

Gunfortunately,likelynottheplaceforitG


Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
You can buy in @ Harrahs in Atlantic City for $500 into a 1/2NL game. Rake is $4 & $2 for BBJ & no flop/no drop.

At the Borgata, it's $4 max rake & $1 BBJ but max buy-in is $300

At the MGM @ National Harbor MD, where I play 1/3NL, it's $500 max buy-in, $5 rake & $2 for BBJ taken out at $10 & $30 & no flop/no drop.

Most of the players at MGM have money, so even though they may buy-in for $300, they have several bullets in their pockets.

How often do you get on a table where someone burns through $1K+? I can find a table like that most nights. Pots of $200+ quite often.

Does that sound like your poker room?
No, not at all, and it's also not addressing the conditions I'm addressing (which is high relative rake in low BI games).

FWIW, over time, your rake will definitely go up simply due to inflation and the poker rooms needing to stay ahead of the curve financially. So while they are good now, they can (and will) only get worse.

GcluelessrakenoobG


Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
Which is EXACTLY why I've been so confidently preaching that high WR's are super attainable in 1/2. fwiw I also think most people at 2/5 are also bad, but they at least have a clue, whereas the majority of 1/2 players are just terrible and never adjust so you can exploit them over and over (okay, not NEVER, but you get the point).
I've also addressed this in other parts of this thread. Basically, you're assuming there is a big degree of difference in skill level between 1/2 NL tables and 2/5 NL tables. This is really room dependent, but (a) that skill level difference is lessening, and while I'll admit it could definitely still be fairly wide in multi-steak rooms, (b) it is totally non-applicable to rooms that only have 1 steak (I know you likely play in a multi-steak room, but there are *lots* of us that don't).

GcluelesssteaksnoobG


Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
Not intended to be a brag, but my WR is 70% higher over the last 2+ years playing $2/5 exclusively than it was playing $1/2 and some $2/5. I'm not trying to share my WR but based on the numbers thrown around here I'm an well-above-average winning player. This is in spite of a *gasp* RAKE INCREASE!!!! (now $5+2)

To be fair to GG, 100bb cap games are tougher to beat, especially when not everybody is buying in to the max and topping off.

If you're someone who's only making 3-5BB or less at 1/2 or 1/3 over any significant sample, you haven't put the work in to improve enough to win more. It's that simple.
Is it possible your winrate is also higher simply because you are outrunning the rake / small BI cap of your smaller games? (obviously it helps that you've studied and improved your game, not saying that doesn't have a big affect as well)

Your rake in your big game is still less than mine in my small game ($7 + $1, will be moving to $8 + $1 fairly shortly just like other rooms in the area). Have you actually considered how big just a $1 increase in rake in a small BI game has on our bottom line? If you start crunching the numbers, it might surprise you. Actually had a local travelling pro tell me that when the rake increases to $9 (which it inevitably will) in a our $300 max BI game that the game will be unbeatable; I actually don't agree with him, but it definitely will be flat out impossible to crush.

GcluelessrakenoobG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 03-07-2018 at 02:54 PM.
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Old 03-07-2018, 02:51 PM   #21127
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Come on GG, that's easy. It's only 2000 hours at $2/5 for 10bb/hr.


Glol'ed,niceG
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Old 03-07-2018, 02:53 PM   #21128
Petrucci
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you want to be really really MUBSy GG regarding to the raise in winrate in Deathcabs case, we could just shut him down on it by saying he is on a lifetime heater and dont realize how good he is sunrunning.
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Old 03-07-2018, 02:57 PM   #21129
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
If you want to be really really MUBSy GG regarding to the raise in winrate in Deathcabs case, we could just shut him down on it by saying he is on a lifetime heater and dont realize how good he is sunrunning.
I've said nothing of the sort and even noted that his studying / hard work has undoubtedly paid off in spades.

What I'm saying in that a high relative raked / small BI game is extremely difficult to crush and to prove me otherwise (which no one has yet to do).

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 03-07-2018, 03:00 PM   #21130
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
If you want to be really really MUBSy GG regarding to the raise in winrate in Deathcabs case, we could just shut him down on it by saying he is on a lifetime heater and dont realize how good he is sunrunning.
believe me, the thought crossed my mind
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Old 03-07-2018, 03:04 PM   #21131
Petrucci
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Have you ever asked yourself if it is your ubernitty rock of the century image and constantly weak tight predictable playing style (wich in the next chapter actually helps your opponents making better decisions against you in terms of not paying you off) that is the real problem, and not the rake?

I honestly think seriously asking yourself these kind of questions would help your approach/game and winrates more in the future GG. I am willing to bet a huge amount that if you put wellknown crushers on these forums with a more open aggro game than you have, players that is using a bigger toolbox overall, is gonna achieve a much higher winrate in your games than you do. Because they is gonna employ a strategy and a playing style that is simply gonna force your opponents to make mistakes against them- one way or another.

To be honest i am not even sure how many really really good cash grinders you have ever played with- and in what kind of way they are adjusting in the quarter of a second, and how they are able to destroy table dynamics/spesific villains.
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Old 03-07-2018, 03:18 PM   #21132
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Like I've said over and over Gil, I'm not going to address strat here (it's not the place). I think you're also missing the overall point, which I'll hopefully illustrate below.

In keeping with the thread, here's a very simple thing for people to ponder and I'd be curious as to the numbers you come up with.

Let's say you play in a 1/3 NL game with a $300 max BI (although lots of players BI for $200). Game overall is pretty loose preflop (lotta 6way limped pots and 4way raised pots), but plays a lot tighter postflop (lotta pots ending 3ways or HU by the turn, not a lot of river bets with showdowns). A decent amount of pots (most?) reach $50 - $80 due to this, but often not much more.

So you've got a winrate of x bb/hr with a $5 maximum rake (10%) over some significant time period.

What would your winrate be over that same time period had you played with a $6 maximum rake?

What about a $7 maximum rake?

$8?

Show your math or how you arrived at your estimate before reading the spoiler.

Spoiler:


GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 03-07-2018, 03:27 PM   #21133
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Lol, not touching upon strategy or skillsets-when those factors is highly correlated to achieveable winrates. Game approach, strategy and skillsets is obviously chained together on alot of levels. A player capable of 3 betting light, can as an example force opponents to stackoff wider/fold away too much money/tilt and possibly get them to spew off whole 100 BB buyins. How convinient to just ignore that full discussion when its highly correlated to winrates discussion, but instead cherrypick the aspects that suits your beforehand decided beliefs- and that way continue to drive your stubborn locomotive full speed ahead dont listening to anyone or anybody.
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Old 03-07-2018, 04:16 PM   #21134
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Gil, as much as you accuse me of going circles, I can accuse much of the same.

I asked a very simple question above, that is directly related to winrates.

Any thoughts on it?

Ganyone?G
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Old 03-07-2018, 04:36 PM   #21135
VipassanaMan
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Pretty new to the forum, but not new to poker. I've been playing exclusively NL Hold'em for a while now the vast majority being 1/2, with some 1/3, 2/5, and 5/5 thrown in. I used to be a consistent internet player back in the day, but don't play online at all anymore. I recently got back to playing regularly.

I still make mistakes of course and am learning something new every day. With that said 8-10 BB/hr has been achievable for me in the games that I play. That's with looking back in hindsight with a clear memory on some very stupid moves that I made. Years ago I used to still tilt slightly.

I think overall the games have gotten a little tougher, but in my room especially on the weekends the games are really good. Even the daytime games with grinding regs are beatable.

In my room a lot of the regs are old-time nits/boring TAGs who are easy to exploit. I see this trend with the younger guys grinding the game as well.

It's obvious to me by the way they play that many of the grinding regs do not do the hard work away from the table. What I mean is practicing hand-reading and dissecting hands/hand ranges slowly piece by piece.
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Old 03-07-2018, 04:40 PM   #21136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Like I've said over and over Gil, I'm not going to address strat here (it's not the place). I think you're also missing the overall point, which I'll hopefully illustrate below.

In keeping with the thread, here's a very simple thing for people to ponder and I'd be curious as to the numbers you come up with.

Let's say you play in a 1/3 NL game with a $300 max BI (although lots of players BI for $200). Game overall is pretty loose preflop (lotta 6way limped pots and 4way raised pots), but plays a lot tighter postflop (lotta pots ending 3ways or HU by the turn, not a lot of river bets with showdowns). A decent amount of pots (most?) reach $50 - $80 due to this, but often not much more.

So you've got a winrate of x bb/hr with a $5 maximum rake (10%) over some significant time period.

What would your winrate be over that same time period had you played with a $6 maximum rake?

What about a $7 maximum rake?

$8?

Show your math or how you arrived at your estimate before reading the spoiler.

Spoiler:


GcluelessNLnoobG
6-way limped pots = lots of opportunities to win 5-6+ BBs preflop. How many of these opportunities are you taking? If your preflop raise with a marginal hand gets called, then you have the opportunity to win even more BBs, and you'll be in a very profitable situation if you are good at knowing which flops to cbet, which cards to double barrel, etc against 2 or 3 or 4 villains. How many of those opportunities to barrel simply because of board texture and your perceived range, more than your actual cards, do you take?

I think you can win more than 10 BBs an hour in a game like this, despite the rake.
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Old 03-07-2018, 04:44 PM   #21137
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Gil, as much as you accuse me of going circles, I can accuse much of the same.

I asked a very simple question above, that is directly related to winrates.

Any thoughts on it?

Ganyone?G


your game sucks, stop playing and stop posting. You have not even entertained the thought that any of the experienced players giving you free advice could be right. Your attitude is worse than betgo from the HSMTT forum days.
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Old 03-07-2018, 04:47 PM   #21138
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Garick, i don’t understand why GG is allowed to incessantly post AIDs in this thread and the high stress thread (not to mention the individual strat thread that i don’t read but if i do, look who’s AIDsing), and we can’t talk about tangential live poker topics.
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Old 03-07-2018, 04:52 PM   #21139
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GG needs his own containment thread lol
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Old 03-07-2018, 05:00 PM   #21140
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What's really funny is that I've asked 2 very simple easily answerable questions; 1) post a significant sample size 10+ bb/hr winrate at low stakes raked / small max BI game, and 2) the simple rake question above (which is like, I dunno, 6th grade math?).

And yet no one has answered them (although I'm fully expecting someone to come up with the rake question answer, I haven't totally lost hope with the forum / thread yet).

For a forum thread revolving around stats and proof and math, it's actually quite pathetic.

Gwillnolongerberespondingtothislineofquestioningun tilmyeasyquestionsareansweredG
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Old 03-07-2018, 05:30 PM   #21141
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As mentioned previously ITT, posting a ‘significant sample size 10bb/hr+ winrate at a low stakes capped max buyin game’ is not an ‘easily answerable question’ and denying any advice based on the fact that someone hasn’t posted one is an effective but misguided cop out since, as also mentioned, even if someone were to post one it would likely be shot down because other game conditions are too different to compare. Talk about running in circles...

As far as the rake problem, it’s obvious that any increase in rake will result in some winrate less than x, not sure how that proves anything about achievable winrates except that they might be capped at some (largely speculative) amount. The only proof you have is based on your own experience (big kudos for posting your stats over 4000 hours, no small feat) in a game whose nature may very well have changed over the course of those 4000 hours. I see people in here suggesting that you look at the one variable you have full control over - your own play and exploitative adjustments that may improve your winrate - but I also sense an air of ‘trust me, this game is unbeatable for anything over xbb/hr’. Reminds me of overweight individuals claiming they ‘tried dieting and working out but it doesn’t work for me’ even though their idea of ‘trying’ is light steady-state cardio and subbing Coke with its diet counterpart or ordering small fries instead of large.

I don’t post much but have been lurking this thread for a while and thought I’d drop my 2 cents regarding the latest discussion/derail
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Old 03-07-2018, 05:34 PM   #21142
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
What's really funny is that I've asked 2 very simple easily answerable questions; 1) post a significant sample size 10+ bb/hr winrate at low stakes raked / small max BI game, and 2) the simple rake question above (which is like, I dunno, 6th grade math?).

And yet no one has answered them (although I'm fully expecting someone to come up with the rake question answer, I haven't totally lost hope with the forum / thread yet).

For a forum thread revolving around stats and proof and math, it's actually quite pathetic.

Gwillnolongerberespondingtothislineofquestioningun tilmyeasyquestionsareansweredG
How is posting a 4k hand sample for a low stakes small max BI game easy? How many such samples do you think exist at all, let alone 10BB/h+ samples?

As for your question about the rake, I'm not sure what the relevance is, but I'll answer it.

You say most pots will be $50-$80 in this game. Let's say 50% of pots fall in this range and are evenly distributed, with 25% of pots higher and 25% of pots lower. The pot is rounded down for rake purposes.
.5*(1/3*1+1/3*2)+.25*2 = $1/h average rake increase. Let's say we win about our fair share of hands for a rough estimate of 1.5BB/h rake increase per individual for increasing the rake cap from $5/hand to $7/hand.
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Old 03-07-2018, 06:01 PM   #21143
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Anyone friends with friends of Doug Hull from Red Chip Poker? Doesn't he play 1-2 exclusively to develop lessons/strategy for his target audience? I know he claims he made $12k at Mirage over 300 hrs for $40/hr.

If anyone has this "Sasquatch" WR at 1-2 I would put my money on him.
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Old 03-07-2018, 06:17 PM   #21144
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Yea, seeing a 4000 hour sample of 10+bb/hr isn't going to happen. As a rec player that plays pretty consistently around work and life, I can get 500-600 hours a year. My game conditions weren't constant over the 6-8 years it took to collect that much data. I could see a rec getting 1000 hours if they were pretty committed. But part of being a "rec" player is that you're not pushing the bounds of possible winrates. You're playing as a hobby or for fun.

Anyone playing for a living or as a serious income generator is going to get more hours and be able to collect that kind of data in ... 2 years? They're the most likely to achieve a WR like that, but then they're also the most likely to move up before they collect that much.

Based on a ~2k hour stretch I have, and GG's results, and other samples we've seen around 7-8bb/hr for a rec ... I have little doubt that a dedicated player could hit 10bb/hr for a long term WR. But I don't expect to see a sample beyond maybe 1000 hours of it.
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Old 03-07-2018, 06:17 PM   #21145
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Jeezus fukkin Christ GG i wasnt going to poast in this thread and am effectively done with it b/c of your non stop drivel

y no 4k samples at 1/2

here is y

when I switched from full time 21 pro to poker back in 03 or so I started playing on line. I had already bin a pro gambooler for 11 years

the lowest stake I played was 400 nl on line. Thats where I started.

Pros are not going to dick around at peanut stakes period
when I waitlist I never ever play 1/2 - zero interest
the only reason I have played 1/2 was for coaching people.

anyone that beats 1/2 for a decent rate is gunna move up - end of story. Ya ya ya some people dont have better options. Maybe they get bored trading their time for 20$/hour. I dont know and I dont care. I personally fuggin hate live poker. But for me 50+ per hour is worth my time and I trade my time for that.
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Old 03-07-2018, 06:27 PM   #21146
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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
I personally fuggin hate live poker. But for me 50+ per hour is worth my time and I trade my time for that.
This is quite sad. I actually feel for you.
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Old 03-07-2018, 06:31 PM   #21147
gobbledygeek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
You say most pots will be $50-$80 in this game. Let's say 50% of pots fall in this range and are evenly distributed, with 25% of pots higher and 25% of pots lower. The pot is rounded down for rake purposes.
.5*(1/3*1+1/3*2)+.25*2 = $1/h average rake increase. Let's say we win about our fair share of hands for a rough estimate of 1.5BB/h rake increase per individual for increasing the rake cap from $5/hand to $7/hand.
I think this is a decent attempt.

But what about when you stack someone (especially a smaller stack)? If we assume we're stacking idiots mostly, and those idiots are loose and playing in a lot of pots, their stack has likely been obliterated by the rake. I think this also needs to be factored in somehow?

Gthanksfogivingitashot,imoG
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Old 03-07-2018, 06:35 PM   #21148
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hand from today...5 guys limp. I raise $40 from the BB with QJ. They all fold one after the other. Easy $25 profit. Actually $27 since its "drop flop no drop". Lets take a poll to see when GG even thought about doing that...let alone actually pulled the trigger
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Old 03-07-2018, 06:38 PM   #21149
gobbledygeek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Yea, seeing a 4000 hour sample of 10+bb/hr isn't going to happen. As a rec player that plays pretty consistently around work and life, I can get 500-600 hours a year. My game conditions weren't constant over the 6-8 years it took to collect that much data. I could see a rec getting 1000 hours if they were pretty committed. But part of being a "rec" player is that you're not pushing the bounds of possible winrates. You're playing as a hobby or for fun.

Anyone playing for a living or as a serious income generator is going to get more hours and be able to collect that kind of data in ... 2 years? They're the most likely to achieve a WR like that, but then they're also the most likely to move up before they collect that much.

Based on a ~2k hour stretch I have, and GG's results, and other samples we've seen around 7-8bb/hr for a rec ... I have little doubt that a dedicated player could hit 10bb/hr for a long term WR. But I don't expect to see a sample beyond maybe 1000 hours of it.
I've addressed one part of this already (i.e. not everyone has other steaks they can move up to nor want to even if they did).

And what's so difficult about achieving 4000 hours at a level? I have a once-a-week rule with the wife and still get in 500+ hours a year. Seems to me it would be very simple for rec players who love poker as a hobby to get in much more. I talked with a rec the last session out who claims she plays almost every night, and considering she, like a lot of others, seems to be there every single night I play, this doesn't sound too farfetched. 800+ hour years for devoted nothing-else-much-going-on-in-their-lives recs seems very reasonably attainable to me.

GcluelesshoursnoobG
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Old 03-07-2018, 06:41 PM   #21150
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Hand from today...5 guys limp. I raise $40 from the BB with QJ. They all fold one after the other. Easy $25 profit. Actually $27 since its "drop flop no drop". Lets take a poll to see when GG even thought about doing that...let alone actually pulled the trigger
That's a nice story Mike.

Looks like you're playing in a 2/5 NL game? What's the max BI / rake in that game?

GnotremotelyrelevanttotheconditionsI'mdiscussing?G
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