Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-05-2018, 03:57 PM   #21051
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
small winrate
Prove it.

Everybody in this thread is talking about Sasquatch. And yet no one is showing any proof.

GthereisnoSasquatch;shouldbeprettyeasytoproveother wiseG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 04:00 PM   #21052
Dizzyqtp
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dizzyqtp's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 7,384
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

if I had a free 4,000 hours to spare maybe I would lol.

also when I say small winrate I am referencing your more recent results that you have been complaining about. 7bb/hr over 4k hours is solid.
Dizzyqtp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 04:10 PM   #21053
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

4000 hours is 4 years of 1000 hours. I'd guess that there a lot of recs in my game that put in that much (although I only put in about half that much). Also (and I don't want to re-open this issue) but there are lots of players (even the winning ones) who stay at the lowest steaks for lots of reasons (no steak available to move up to, perfectly fine crushing their current opposition, it's just for fun anyways, etc.).

GWJ,endtheargumentandpostyourgiraffe,imo!G
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 04:12 PM   #21054
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Awesome post by SABR regarding capped winrates at the lowsteaks rake-trapped games (especially those with maximum BI limits which, in my experience, most are), as well as how we can run very good / very bad over very "long" (i.e. lol live) periods, imo.

Like SABR, I'm also fairly ready to call BS on anyone who claims a 10 bb/hr winrate *at these lowsteaks rake-trapped maximum BI games* (i.e. I'm not talking your higher BI 2/NL nosebleed steaks which at that point are beginning to outrun the rake trap). To date, I don't believe *anyone* has posted proof of this in this thread over anything that would be considered significant hours (even Squiddy's hours are mostly at 2/5 NL if I recall). To say that "those crushers move up before attaining significant hours" is a cop out, imo.

Gwon'tberespondingtostrategyrecommendationsinthist hread,toomuchofaderail,imoG
not what SABR wrote tho
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 04:19 PM   #21055
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sai1b0ats View Post
not what SABR wrote tho
Um, he pretty much called BS on anyone claiming 10 bb/hr in 1/2 NL, no?

Sailboats, you must have a pretty good sample size at the small steaks by now, or did you move up before accumulating some solid hours?

Gclueless10bb/hrnoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 04:31 PM   #21056
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
In fact, here's a little something I'm going to do. In 170 hours, I'm going to post my 4000 hour results at 1/3 NL (almost exclusively, save for about ~200 hours, played in a $300 maximum BI game). Don't want to spoil the surprise, but it'll be about 7 bb/hr.

So here's your incredibly simple proof-is-in-the-pudding task to shut me up and make me eat crow. *Simply post a better one* (again, anything up to and including 1/3 NL in a 100bb maximum BI game over 4000+ hours). It's *that easy*.

My guess is that Squiddy (if he can ever recover his lost stats and played enough capped 1/2 NL) might be the *only* one who could take on that challenge. Everyone else is just talking out their ass until they prove otherwise, imo.

ETA: Ha, after posting this I reread it and it came off a little "I'm the best player here" and that isn't what was intended (I don't think that for a second, FWIW). What I'm simply going to prove is that this magical 10+ bb/hr is thrown around *a lot* too casually here and without regards to steaks / maximum BIs (seriously, lol at the "I'd crush your game to the tune of 15 bb/hr" quotes above). Again, *simply prove me wrong*.

ETA#2: And this isn't the first time I've dealt with highly inflated estimates of what possible winrates could be without taking into regards steaks / maximum BIs. The same thing occurred in the past with Limit poker, where a 2 BB/hr winrate was tossed around as gospel. Problem was, no one took the time to consider that the rake at live 2/4 Limit is much more devastating than it is at live 10/20 Limit game (making the former virtually unbeatable). It's really the same case here. For a forum and thread based around facts, it's very disappointing that what seems to be an overwhelming conjecture has never been backed up with cold hard facts.

G*proveit*,imoG
prove it - lol. a giraffe poast is proof?

I have 3Avas lifetime spread over 1-2,1-3,2-5. If you don't think I have beaten and can beat full stack 1-2,1-3 games for 10bb that's cool. I'm not sure why you want to convince people that it is unattainable.

I'm not sure where my winrate (lossrate?) would cap if my Villains stopped telling me when they flop a set tho.

poast isn't a brag, these live games aren't that tough. (of course, for most of us, it takes a lot of work to reach that realization)
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 04:35 PM   #21057
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
I'm definitely calling BS on anyone claiming to have a true winrate significantly higher than 10 bb/hr (which is extremely hard to achieve by itself).
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Like SABR, I'm also fairly ready to call BS on anyone who claims a 10 bb/hr winrate *at these lowsteaks rake-trapped maximum BI games*
Quote:
Originally Posted by sai1b0ats View Post
not what SABR wrote tho
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Um, he pretty much called BS on anyone claiming 10 bb/hr in 1/2 NL, no?

Sailboats, you must have a pretty good sample size at the small steaks by now, or did you move up before accumulating some solid hours?

Gclueless10bb/hrnoobG
.
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 05:24 PM   #21058
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ok, fair enough, I didn't catch the "significantly higher" part of SABR's post.; my bad.

But this isn't the point. Heck, it's not even the point if one random does eventually come in here and manage to post a 4000 hours @ 10 bb/hr in a 100bb max BI game (congrats if you do, seriously, hats off); SABR himself even says this is *significantly* difficult to achieve.

The point is that the 10 bb/hr winrate is tossed around in here with clear disregard to steaks / max BIs as if all levels are the same with regards to rake (they aren't, and I believe this is one of the general points SABR was making).

If you or someone else can do it, fine, congrats. But making it out like if you're a winning player that ain't in the top .1% then you're nothing when *not a single solitary person has posted proof of this in this thread* is pretty lol.

GSasquatcheseverywhere,apparently,somuchsothatnopr oofrequiredG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 05:52 PM   #21059
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sorry, I'm unclear on your overall point, I'm afraid. To summarize, I believe you have claimed here or elsewhere:

- you have realized a 7bb winrate over a significant sample
- you haven't read a strat book published in the last 8 (10?) years
- you don't subscribe to any training sites
- you play in a tougher than average LLSNL market with relatively high rake
- you claim that a 10bb winrate is sasquatch territory

my response is "huh?"

not trying to twist your words or rag on your skills, but what am i missing here?
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 06:19 PM   #21060
TexasDonkem
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 86
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Facesquid the game is 1/3 $300max buy in 10% with$15 cap and we're actually not allowed to tip. There is a royal flush jackpot average $25k if we flop it.
TexasDonkem is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 06:21 PM   #21061
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I will never be able to prove it because I will never play 4000 hours of 1/2, but theres not one single doubt in my mind that I could break 10BB/hr. My room has a 150BB max buy in at 1/2 but almost nobody buys in that deep. There are way more $60-$100 stacks than $250+ stacks.

I still demolished 10BBs. I only played 650 hours but I was at 18bb/hr total and 22BB/hr in peak times when stacks are a bit deeper and there's recs littered everywhere at the tables. You can tell yourself that I just ran hot but I know better.

Ive played around 4000 live hours. I know when Im running hot and when Im not.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 06:54 PM   #21062
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sai1b0ats View Post
Sorry, I'm unclear on your overall point, I'm afraid. To summarize, I believe you have claimed here or elsewhere:

- you have realized a 7bb winrate over a significant sample
- you haven't read a strat book published in the last 8 (10?) years
- you don't subscribe to any training sites
- you play in a tougher than average LLSNL market with relatively high rake
- you claim that a 10bb winrate is sasquatch territory

my response is "huh?"

not trying to twist your words or rag on your skills, but what am i missing here?
I don't know how I can boil this down any simpler than this.

1) Everyone claims 10 bb/hr is doable in lowstakes heavily raked 100bb maximum BI games.

2) Not one single person in this thread has provided any substantial proof of that.

It's that simple.

Not saying it's not completely unnatainable. But the fact that not one single person has provided proof of it yet suggests that it is perhaps a lot more difficult to attain the everyone is making it out to be.

ETA: I guess your point is that even a moron like me (my words, I think they are somewhat accurate) can make 7 bb/hr then lots of people should be able to make more. And yet I still don't see any proof of that?

GSasquatch!G
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 07:03 PM   #21063
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I will never be able to prove it because I will never play 4000 hours of 1/2, but theres not one single doubt in my mind that I could break 10BB/hr. My room has a 150BB max buy in at 1/2 but almost nobody buys in that deep. There are way more $60-$100 stacks than $250+ stacks.

I still demolished 10BBs. I only played 650 hours but I was at 18bb/hr total and 22BB/hr in peak times when stacks are a bit deeper and there's recs littered everywhere at the tables. You can tell yourself that I just ran hot but I know better.

Ive played around 4000 live hours. I know when Im running hot and when Im not.
FWIW, I had a 1013.5 hour stretch (which I've logged as a filter in Poker Journal as "Crazy Upwswing 1/3 NL") where I ran at 12.7 bb/hr. And yet 4000 hours will have me sitting at a lowly 7 bb/hr (wrap your around how poorly the results in the other ~3000 hours have to be in order to attain that).

Guntilyoudoit,orsomeoneprovesthey'vedoneit,youdon' tknowit,imoG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 07:17 PM   #21064
SABR42
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SABR42's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: printing money
Posts: 22,006
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

GG, what is your point?

The only people who are going to have 4000 hours at $1/2 or $1/3 are rec players who have no interest in moving up, and this group of players, by definition, is not going to be very good at poker.
SABR42 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 07:19 PM   #21065
Homey D. Clown
adept
 
Homey D. Clown's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,103
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Not saying it's not completely unnatainable. But the fact that not one single person has provided proof of it yet suggests that it is perhaps a lot more difficult to attain the everyone is making it out to be.
No, not at all. I'm not even saying it wouldn't be difficult, it might very well be, but the fact that no one provided proof mainly suggests that nearly all good players capable of 10+bb winrates have long since moved up before they reached your conveniently chosen 4000 hour mark. And why wouldn't they? So why don't you just quit this crusade of yours? No, it's obviously not easy to attain a 10bb+ winrate, that's why the vast majority will never even come close, but for good players it is certainly doable. Those good players will never play 4000 hours of 1/2, though, because they will simply have much better/more profitable things to do/stakes to play.

This is not rocket science. You must know this yourself, right?
Homey D. Clown is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 07:20 PM   #21066
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
FWIW, I had a 1013.5 hour stretch (which I've logged as a filter in Poker Journal as "Crazy Upwswing 1/3 NL") where I ran at 12.7 bb/hr. And yet 4000 hours will have me sitting at a lowly 7 bb/hr (wrap your around how poorly the results in the other ~3000 hours have to be in order to attain that).

Guntilyoudoit,orsomeoneprovesthey'vedoneit,youdon' tknowit,imoG
More than 1 person agrees with me that that is most likely because youve been nitting it up so long that nobody will pay you off anymore. At least not in big pots.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 10:48 PM   #21067
YGOchamp
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,517
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post

Like SABR, I'm also fairly ready to call BS on anyone who claims a 10 bb/hr winrate *at these lowsteaks rake-trapped maximum BI games* To say that "those crushers move up before attaining significant hours" is a cop out, imo.
LOLLLLLLLL IS THIS FOR REAL. Honestly worst post I've ever seen from you.

HOW IS THAT A COP OUT??? It's entirely true. Yes, you are 100% in the minority of players that stay at a lower level and thus retain small profits. Most everybody else wants to branch out. I'm not sure how you can possibly think this is a cop out. Honestly absurd.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
sure gg; b/c no one has anything better to do than play 4,000 hours of low stakes poker for the sole purpose of proving you wrong lol.

you are throwing around the phrase "prove me wrong" like any of us can go out and play a 4,000 hour sample size in no time. believe it or not, that actually takes a lot of time to accomplish!
this lol.

I would happily take you up on a prop bet GG for sustaining 10bb/hr WR at 1/2, but the problem is that the opportunity cost is so high that it'd have to be 500k minimum and even then it'd take about 3 years to complete. (3 very miserable years). This "challenge" of yours is just as absurd (if not more absurd) then claiming good players moving up is a "cop out"

Plenty have similar amount of total hours but we move up prior to reaching such a large sample

While I do appreciate preaching about variance (something that becomes very real when reading DGAF's thread), youre more-so preaching (incorrectly) about how everybody who's "crushing" LLSNL is sun-running and their real WR is capped at a much smaller number
YGOchamp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 11:01 PM   #21068
ES2
adept
 
ES2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 995
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Here is the problem. And maybe a more fruitful direction.

There are a ton of spots that are profitable but for the rake and it's hard to even say where the cutoff is.

Simple example. It folds to you in LP w k9s. Lol you are so much better than everyone. Easy raise.

Unlike most, even crushers, you know to raise amounts that circumvent the rake a little. You make it 12. The bb calls and check folds. Easy money!

You risked about 24. You won 13. But the rake is at least 2. Tip is a buck. If there is a promo take out another. Now you risked 24 to win 9. The juice is over 1/3 of your winnings.

Is this really much of a profitable play? If not, that's a good source of winnings gone.

There are many other scenarios where I know I am beating the villain but it's hard to say if I am beating the rake. Floating and taking it away in a small or medium pot e.g.

You won't really notice this when running good or even average. You'll only notice how much you outplay Vs
ES2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2018, 12:01 AM   #21069
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I don't know how I can boil this down any simpler than this.

1) Everyone claims 10 bb/hr is doable in lowstakes heavily raked 100bb maximum BI games.

2) Not one single person in this thread has provided any substantial proof of that.

It's that simple.

Not saying it's not completely unnatainable. But the fact that not one single person has provided proof of it yet suggests that it is perhaps a lot more difficult to attain the everyone is making it out to be.

ETA: I guess your point is that even a moron like me (my words, I think they are somewhat accurate) can make 7 bb/hr then lots of people should be able to make more. And yet I still don't see any proof of that?

GSasquatch!G
Proof.

You keep using that word.
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2018, 01:16 AM   #21070
YGOchamp
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,517
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The other huge take away is that anybody who is beating the games for that amount is not going to share their WR's. They don't want people knowing what's possible. The only reason I don't care is because I don't play 1/2 anymore. If I was still playing 1/2 and crushing, best believe I wouldn't be in here saying "hey look im beating 1/2 for 17bb/hr"
YGOchamp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2018, 04:19 AM   #21071
daniel9861
veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 3,381
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Lol. 10 bb/hr is easily attainable if certain conditions line up. Some of those conditions are:

1) Location
- Attainable winrates in an underground game in Texas are going to be much higher
than attainable winrates in Vegas at the same stake.
2) Time of day
- Attainable winrates on a Monday at 10am are going to be quite lower than Friday at
10pm
3) Rake structure
4) Buyin structure
5) Game selection
- For instance, always looking for and getting transfers to the tables with the biggest
stack sizes or the ones with the most straddles.
6) Presence of other stakes
- A room that only has 1/2 running will be tougher than a room with 1/2, 2/5, and
5/10 running

Etc.

I have no doubt there are some players at low stakes who have long term true winrates of > 10bb/hr when/where these conditions are favorable.
daniel9861 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2018, 04:50 AM   #21072
YGOchamp
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,517
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

finally, an actual good post.

100% agree. I beat 1/2 for 17bb/hr over 1k hours... does that mean I think I could ALWAYS beat it for that rate regardless of game conditions? hell no. I was a beast at game selecting, and would very quickly get to realize that equity when somebody doubled me up within 20 minutes of changing tables. I also almost never played in the morning. I still think I (and any solid 5/10 player) could at the very least maintain somewhere along a 10bb/hr WR even in marginal games/times.
YGOchamp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2018, 09:29 AM   #21073
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
finally, an actual good post.

100% agree. I beat 1/2 for 17bb/hr over 1k hours... does that mean I think I could ALWAYS beat it for that rate regardless of game conditions? hell no. I was a beast at game selecting, and would very quickly get to realize that equity when somebody doubled me up within 20 minutes of changing tables. I also almost never played in the morning. I still think I (and any solid 5/10 player) could at the very least maintain somewhere along a 10bb/hr WR even in marginal games/times.

Sorry. I'm pretty sure you just imagined those results. If GG beats a tough game for 7bb, it's pretty unlikely that anybody can beat any capped buy-in game for more than 10bb.
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2018, 09:37 AM   #21074
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Im gonna go out on a limb and say that any 1/2 game currently being spread in this Country that is not raked higher than $5 + $2 is beatable for higher than 7BB/hr.

You just cant sit there and wait for premium hands and play 16/5. Learn how to play better post flop and play 23/17 ish and the game can be crushed like an aluminum can.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2018, 09:37 AM   #21075
wj294
adept
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 1,074
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah GG do you not see the contradiction in your logic? You’re beating what appears to be a tougher than average 1/3 game for 7bb/h but don’t believe that people, in softer markets, can beat games for >10bb/h? Seems pretty reasonable to me.
wj294 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:37 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive