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Old 03-02-2018, 02:25 PM   #21026
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ha, not to derail the thread Squiddy, but I'm not sure you'll like my conclusion regarding the best way to play in my current poker conditions (hint: it involves almost never seeing a flop). Ha, good luck to me obviously.

G/derailG
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Old 03-02-2018, 04:35 PM   #21027
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
This is also a standard response, which I've responded to many times.

In a nutshell, in those 12 hours to date, and if I've done my math right, someone flopped a set 18 times (not to mention two pair, or turned sets, or other big hands). You will steal a lot of pots and get TP off their hand a lot, no doubt about it. But in multiway pots (and there are even still a large amount of multiway raised pots in my game), there is simply too good a chance you'll run into that minefield of sets / two pair / etc. that aren't going to fold, and my guess (I could be wrong) is that you're going to spew off all your profit into them.

Last night I was fairly card dead and played very few hands, which certainly didn't help my already super rock image. But I once found myself in a 7way limped pot (limped pots being the exception these days) with A8hh on the Button. KQ8hh. It's checked to the CO who bets. The cutoff ain't a nit who likely would have raised KQ and possibly even 88 preflop. I have a super nit image that he is well aware of. I could have just called and tried to invite others into the pot and played for stacks behind, but instead went for the steal. I raised, he was the only caller, and I shoved for a little over a PSB on the blank turn. It was my only "steal" attempt of the night in 6 hours. I ran into Q8 who tank/called (who knows what he thinks hes ahead of), but I got there.

Ggoodluckintheminefield,imoG
I don't agree that misplaying a 7 way limped pot is an indication you can never bluff. I don't want to talk about the hand since it is the winrates thread, just saying it does not prove your point at all.

Being seen as a nit, while being able to bluff, is hugely +ev. Pick good spots for it, not 7 ways with the nut flush draw and two pair outs, and your winrate will improve.
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Old 03-02-2018, 07:46 PM   #21028
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GG, the adjustments you've made are to get even nittier which is exactly the opposite of what you should be doing.

Any tough aggro player will beat that type of game up pretty badly as the nits sit around waiting for the nuts to play back.

There is no doubt in my mind that I, or any tough aggro player, could beat your 1/2 game for 15BB+/hr. That game sounds just like the daytime 1/2 in my room.
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Old 03-02-2018, 08:28 PM   #21029
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Yeah GG, I know you just can't seem to fathom the idea that it's you, but at some point you just have to start believing what everyone here has been trying to tell you now for quite some time: it's you.

Anyone who's not getting paid off at LLSNL is just doing it wrong, plain and simple. Open up your range, show up with a few dumb bluffs once in a while, quit limping and checking everything, etcetera. Just be more active in general. This whole forum has been sounding like a broken record about this, but unfortunately you refuse to listen and simply look the other way. You give new meaning to the word stubborn lol.
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Old 03-02-2018, 08:29 PM   #21030
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
GG, the adjustments you've made are to get even nittier which is exactly the opposite of what you should be doing.

Any tough aggro player will beat that type of game up pretty badly as the nits sit around waiting for the nuts to play back.

There is no doubt in my mind that I, or any tough aggro player, could beat your 1/2 game for 15BB+/hr. That game sounds just like the daytime 1/2 in my room.
You make it sound like Wednesday noon games are more profitable than Saturday midnight games.
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Old 03-02-2018, 08:38 PM   #21031
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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
You make it sound like Wednesday noon games are more profitable than Saturday midnight games.
That's not what I meant to imply. Im just saying that a tight super nitty table can be run over like a bull dozer for a very good win rate and super low variance.

Its funny you say that though because Wed is my best day of the week and somehow Sat is my worst.
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Old 03-03-2018, 12:39 AM   #21032
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Where I play the weekday games are full of bad regs but the weekends are a mix of wild drunks and semi pros, so it can be a bit hit or miss.

If no one is paying off your sets on the river, then bet the river with air more.
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Old 03-03-2018, 02:03 AM   #21033
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If no one is paying off your sets on the river, then bet the river with air more.
But the two times he tried it, it didn't work, so we gatta give up forever now

But yeah like, no offence to GG, not calling you a bad player but I'm pretty sure we'd all agree you're no crusher (a winning player, yes, but not a crusher), so your preaching of variance wrt to 10bb+ winners at 1/2 isn't very relevant, because I feel very confident a true crusher would be able to always sustain a high WR at 1/2 unless it was just truly truly horrid variance. Obviously it's been discussed that we'll never know who a "true crusher" is bcuz of survivorship bias/heaters and whatnot, but they do exist regardless if we can confirm who is/is not one. Once you get to 2/5-5/10, then yeah even a crusher can go on a downswing over X hours bcuz you cannot exploit as much.
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Old 03-03-2018, 02:30 PM   #21034
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$1/2 winrates are capped by rake.

Without rake a lot of people would theoretically be winners, but the rake makes it so that the first few bb/hr you "win" are spent offsetting losses from rake. And everyone loses so much to the rake that top winrates will be significantly capped. Do the math yourself. Large casinos rake in 8 figures every year, it is always the biggest winner and the single biggest reason why winrates are capped.

I'm definitely calling BS on anyone claiming to have a true winrate significantly higher than 10 bb/hr (which is extremely hard to achieve by itself).

I have over 10000 hours of poker played lifetime, online and live. My first 2 months of playing $2/5 live full-time I made $32K, for a winrate of 20 bb/hr. I was by far the best player in my room, but was that my true winrate? **** no man, I ran hot as hell and won tons of big pots and rarely lost them. After 500 hours I still maintained a winrate close to 18 bb/hr and used the money to buy myself an expensive car, which is still my car today. Needless to say, that winrate did not last.

I currently play mostly $10/20, and I'm a far better player now than I've ever been, and do you know my winrate over the past 18 months? It's positive, but barely. And I know why it is what it is. In that time period I've been set over set around 10 times in big pots (at least 150 bb lost). I set over set someone only once (for a much smaller 60 bb). I've put tons of money in with big pairs to have people spike underpairs on me in big pots, and lost numerous big pots in spots where I flopped the nuts and lots of money went in and I lost to draws. Meanwhile my own draws seemed to hit about 15% less than they statistically should have.

But whatever, I'm not saying this to feel bad for myself because I've had multiple times in the past where I ran hot for 500-hour stretches and made more than I should have. You know what's common about every hot strech that anyone's ever had? You simply got very lucky at avoiding coolers. Your overpairs help up, your value-betting hands got clean boards to keep betting, and you hit plenty of sets and draws and people just gave you money. During a hot streak you may think you ran normal and won at your true winrate but the truth is you ran hot in a lot of ways that you don't realize.

The nature of live poker makes it so that there will always be some people who are running extremely hot for even thousands of hours, but even those people never maintain their inflated winrates and come back to earth eventually, it might just take a few years. I have seen it many times.

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Last edited by SABR42; 03-03-2018 at 02:35 PM.
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Old 03-03-2018, 07:58 PM   #21035
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Yeah good post.
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Old 03-03-2018, 10:14 PM   #21036
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The key is being astute enough to know when you are running hot, cold or avg. Once you've played enough, you should be able to tell the difference and be honest with yourself.
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Old 03-03-2018, 10:44 PM   #21037
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My point is that at 10/20 you're running very bad and able to sustain a slightly positive WR -- if you were playing 1/2 with that same variance you'd very easily be able to still maintain a relatively high WR because there's just SO MUCH ROOM for exploiting people. I don't want to dive into the nuances, but 1/2 and 10/20 is just milessss apart that even if you were god-running both, the god-running WR possible at 1/2 would be like double or whatever.
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Old 03-04-2018, 05:12 PM   #21038
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Ha, not to derail the thread Squiddy, but I'm not sure you'll like my conclusion regarding the best way to play in my current poker conditions (hint: it involves almost never seeing a flop). Ha, good luck to me obviously.

G/derailG
Make an effort to actually get better at post-flop play instead of only thinking about what kind of stack-off thresholds you need. Start thinking about ranges instead. It's difficult if you've never done it before, but you are certainly heading towards a path of breaking even. From almost every hand you post, it seems like you never think about what kind of range your action represents, what kind of range villains have, and what they perceive you to have.

For example, you expressed incredulity at being called down by Q8 on KQ8hh when you chose to "bluff" with A8hh, but you failed to think about ranges at all. This was a hand you overlimped in LP, yet somehow you are trying to tell the story that you have a huge hand on KQ8? And with villain holding Q8 thus limiting you to 1 combo of bottom set, you are somehow surprised that your bluff didn't work? This is what I'm talking about, just because you are "nitty" it doesn't mean your bluffs will work if you aren't repping anything.

Now, if you are okay with simply killing time playing poker to break even, then ignore this. I'm legitimately trying to help you but I suspect I am wasting my time because some people simply never learn.
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Old 03-04-2018, 08:03 PM   #21039
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Good catch, lol.
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Old 03-05-2018, 09:40 AM   #21040
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A relevant quote from a known pro with regards to playing solid pre-flop poker, and avoiding difficult spots (post) in $1/$2 and $2/$5 NL ...

"If you want to maximize your wins and play top-level poker, then learn to be uncomfortable."
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Old 03-05-2018, 02:04 PM   #21041
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Awesome post by SABR regarding capped winrates at the lowsteaks rake-trapped games (especially those with maximum BI limits which, in my experience, most are), as well as how we can run very good / very bad over very "long" (i.e. lol live) periods, imo.

Like SABR, I'm also fairly ready to call BS on anyone who claims a 10 bb/hr winrate *at these lowsteaks rake-trapped maximum BI games* (i.e. I'm not talking your higher BI 2/NL nosebleed steaks which at that point are beginning to outrun the rake trap). To date, I don't believe *anyone* has posted proof of this in this thread over anything that would be considered significant hours (even Squiddy's hours are mostly at 2/5 NL if I recall). To say that "those crushers move up before attaining significant hours" is a cop out, imo.

Gwon'tberespondingtostrategyrecommendationsinthist hread,toomuchofaderail,imoG
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Old 03-05-2018, 02:18 PM   #21042
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In fact, here's a little something I'm going to do. In 170 hours, I'm going to post my 4000 hour results at 1/3 NL (almost exclusively, save for about ~200 hours, played in a $300 maximum BI game). Don't want to spoil the surprise, but it'll be about 7 bb/hr.

So here's your incredibly simple proof-is-in-the-pudding task to shut me up and make me eat crow. *Simply post a better one* (again, anything up to and including 1/3 NL in a 100bb maximum BI game over 4000+ hours). It's *that easy*.

My guess is that Squiddy (if he can ever recover his lost stats and played enough capped 1/2 NL) might be the *only* one who could take on that challenge. Everyone else is just talking out their ass until they prove otherwise, imo.

ETA: Ha, after posting this I reread it and it came off a little "I'm the best player here" and that isn't what was intended (I don't think that for a second, FWIW). What I'm simply going to prove is that this magical 10+ bb/hr is thrown around *a lot* too casually here and without regards to steaks / maximum BIs (seriously, lol at the "I'd crush your game to the tune of 15 bb/hr" quotes above). Again, *simply prove me wrong*.

ETA#2: And this isn't the first time I've dealt with highly inflated estimates of what possible winrates could be without taking into regards steaks / maximum BIs. The same thing occurred in the past with Limit poker, where a 2 BB/hr winrate was tossed around as gospel. Problem was, no one took the time to consider that the rake at live 2/4 Limit is much more devastating than it is at live 10/20 Limit game (making the former virtually unbeatable). It's really the same case here. For a forum and thread based around facts, it's very disappointing that what seems to be an overwhelming conjecture has never been backed up with cold hard facts.

G*proveit*,imoG

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Old 03-05-2018, 02:19 PM   #21043
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Good post Sabr42 !

I've been playing 1/3 full time for 9 months now and have logged 1400 hours. The first 6 months I ran super hot and crushed the game achieving 11bb/hr as my highest and now my average is 5bb/hr.
I've been in a downswing for the last 3 months with some of the sickest coolers imaginable for big pots and I'm starting to doubt it's even a profitable game because of the rake. I mean I have no idea how long a downswing will last for or even what my true win rate is because my sample is too small. What I am seeing is that 10% rake capped at $15 is insanely high. Last year I probably paid $20,000 in rake whilst I profited a tidy $30,000. Over the last 3 months I've dropped $9000 and I'm not even certain I should continue. Is this game even beatable?

I'm seriously considering just moving to online or just wait until I have the bankroll for higher stakes 5/5+ (far less rake % paid)
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Old 03-05-2018, 02:39 PM   #21044
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Quote:
Originally Posted by samo View Post
A relevant quote from a known pro with regards to playing solid pre-flop poker, and avoiding difficult spots (post) in $1/$2 and $2/$5 NL ...

"If you want to maximize your wins and play top-level poker, then learn to be uncomfortable."
+1

Since I started playing more recently I have been 3-betting and even 4-betting light a lot more often. The first few times I was super uncomfortable. As I do it more I get better at recognizing good times to do it and am better at playing post flop in these situations.

I also looked at any money I lost in these spots as investments towards my overall play.

Humans in general shy away from adversity but it is what makes us grow. We should embrace being uncomfortable.
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Old 03-05-2018, 02:43 PM   #21045
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Originally Posted by TexasDonkem View Post
Good post Sabr42 !

I've been playing 1/3 full time for 9 months now and have logged 1400 hours. The first 6 months I ran super hot and crushed the game achieving 11bb/hr as my highest and now my average is 5bb/hr.
I've been in a downswing for the last 3 months with some of the sickest coolers imaginable for big pots and I'm starting to doubt it's even a profitable game because of the rake. I mean I have no idea how long a downswing will last for or even what my true win rate is because my sample is too small. What I am seeing is that 10% rake capped at $15 is insanely high. Last year I probably paid $20,000 in rake whilst I profited a tidy $30,000. Over the last 3 months I've dropped $9000 and I'm not even certain I should continue. Is this game even beatable?

I'm seriously considering just moving to online or just wait until I have the bankroll for higher stakes 5/5+ (far less rake % paid)
You are beating it for 5bb/hr over 1400 hours. Sounds like it is beatable to me.

That is a very high rake though.
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Old 03-05-2018, 02:59 PM   #21046
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GG - ive played very very little 1/2 or 1/3. WJ94 may have the sample size at 1/2 and 1/3 his w/r in those games is obscene!

TexasDonkem - what is the buy in structure? What are stack sizes like in your game? Are there a lot of players with under 35 bb? Your rake is in fact quite high and 9k down swing in 1/3 is very substantial
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Old 03-05-2018, 03:01 PM   #21047
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You're losing like 5 to 6 bb an hour more than you should just from the rake if not more that's crazy!
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Old 03-05-2018, 03:27 PM   #21048
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With regards to rake, I'm curious if the rake in my game is considered high, average or low compared to your games in (mostly) the States. Mind you, I somehow feel that in the US you'd have to actually add your tips to the rake, since they're considered to be pretty much mandatory, right? Where I play, tipping is not mandatory (dealers' salaries are much higher, and all tips are put together and divided amongst all employees of all the casinos, so you can't actually tip the dealers of your choice anyway) and personally I never tip. This is not considered as being cheap where I'm from; lots of players don't tip, maybe even the majority.

Anyway, my stakes and corresponding rake percentages:
5/5 5% cap 25 (max BI 500bb, players mostly buy-in 100-200bb)
2/4 5% cap 20 (max BI 250bb, most initial buy-ins 75-150bb)
2/2 10% cap 10 (max BI 200bb, most initial buy-ins 75-150bb)

Any thoughts?
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Old 03-05-2018, 03:29 PM   #21049
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
GG - ive played very very little 1/2 or 1/3. WJ94 may have the sample size at 1/2 and 1/3 his w/r in those games is obscene!
Yeah, WJ did post some very crushing winrates over the first 1000 hours (1500?) or so. While he still posts in strat threads I don't think he's updated his stats recently in the Winrates thread, would definitely be curious as to where he's at now (I'm guessing he has to be approaching 4000 hours as well?). Can't recall if his game had a larger than 100bb BI, and I'm pretty sure he also sat in 2/5 NL as well (if he thought the game was better).

GpostyourstatsWJ!,imoG


Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
TexasDonkem - what is the buy in structure? What are stack sizes like in your game? Are there a lot of players with under 35 bb? Your rake is in fact quite high and 9k down swing in 1/3 is very substantial
$15 maximum rake is very high. I'm not convinced my $300 max BI game could be beat at that rake with the sole exception of winning all pots preflop (where the pot is unraked, and is actually a strategy I'm moving towards).

And while I'm a super conservative player who has only gone on 2 downswings approaching 1000bbs, a 3000bb downswing does sound extremely large (although I'm guessing some of our more aggro threaders have done this although I'm guessing in a bigger BI game?).

Ggoodluck,imoG
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Old 03-05-2018, 03:44 PM   #21050
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
In fact, here's a little something I'm going to do. In 170 hours, I'm going to post my 4000 hour results at 1/3 NL (almost exclusively, save for about ~200 hours, played in a $300 maximum BI game). Don't want to spoil the surprise, but it'll be about 7 bb/hr.

So here's your incredibly simple proof-is-in-the-pudding task to shut me up and make me eat crow. *Simply post a better one* (again, anything up to and including 1/3 NL in a 100bb maximum BI game over 4000+ hours). It's *that easy*.

My guess is that Squiddy (if he can ever recover his lost stats and played enough capped 1/2 NL) might be the *only* one who could take on that challenge. Everyone else is just talking out their ass until they prove otherwise, imo.

ETA: Ha, after posting this I reread it and it came off a little "I'm the best player here" and that isn't what was intended (I don't think that for a second, FWIW). What I'm simply going to prove is that this magical 10+ bb/hr is thrown around *a lot* too casually here and without regards to steaks / maximum BIs (seriously, lol at the "I'd crush your game to the tune of 15 bb/hr" quotes above). Again, *simply prove me wrong*.

ETA#2: And this isn't the first time I've dealt with highly inflated estimates of what possible winrates could be without taking into regards steaks / maximum BIs. The same thing occurred in the past with Limit poker, where a 2 BB/hr winrate was tossed around as gospel. Problem was, no one took the time to consider that the rake at live 2/4 Limit is much more devastating than it is at live 10/20 Limit game (making the former virtually unbeatable). It's really the same case here. For a forum and thread based around facts, it's very disappointing that what seems to be an overwhelming conjecture has never been backed up with cold hard facts.

G*proveit*,imoG
sure gg; b/c no one has anything better to do than play 4,000 hours of low stakes poker for the sole purpose of proving you wrong lol. people try to help you get better on the forum; but no one actually cares that much if you continue to play your own way/grind out a small winrate.

you are throwing around the phrase "prove me wrong" like any of us can go out and play a 4,000 hour sample size in no time. believe it or not, that actually takes a lot of time to accomplish! plus even if anyone did you'd just say "well your game conditions must be different than mine" lol..
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