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Old 02-24-2018, 06:30 PM   #20926
pocketzeroes
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Re: Risking 10% of your bankroll for a 10% edge... This is actually the Kelly optimum bet size. Ie, if we wanted to grow our bankroll as fast as possible and we’re offered a bet with a 10% edge, then we should bet 10% of our bankroll.

Investment people still tend to prefer a strategy where they’re risking less (eg fractional Kelly), but a lot of that has to do with uncertainty regarding their actual edge. I would definitely take the 10% BR bet if I knew for sure that it was a 55/45 flip.
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Old 02-24-2018, 07:34 PM   #20927
YGOchamp
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sai1b0ats View Post
Sure, we can come with justifiable scenarios and all that. But I think it's worth reiterating that if you're turning down 55% spots, you're probably doing it wrong.
okay, then explain how they should do it differently.
Get up from your seat and make 0 dollars for the remainder of the night?

Last edited by YGOchamp; 02-24-2018 at 07:41 PM.
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Old 02-24-2018, 08:03 PM   #20928
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Enough with the pedantics. sai1b0ats is clearly saying that if you are close to properly rolled for the games you play, you won't be facing shoves with no dead money and 45% vs. 55% for 10% of your bankroll except in very weird circumstances, and that if you aren't in a circumstance at least that extreme, passing up 10% equity edges is terrible.

Now let's stop making up scenarios that are exceptions to the rule and move on.
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Old 02-25-2018, 12:49 PM   #20929
Sol Reader
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah, like why are we finding excuses to fold a favourite? I’m usually finding an excuse to put money in with an underdog.

Which as we all know, due to pot odds and fold equity, is how winning poker is ultimately played. You wanna play well, you have to get used to putting money in bad. If your river call efficiency is 1 or higher, you’re definitely doing it wrong. In line with previous discussion: to try obsessively to put money in good is a leak. NO. Put money in when it’s +EV.
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Old 02-26-2018, 09:16 AM   #20930
Pensfan
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How many of your live sessions are winning sessions?

Title is self explanatory, but I'd like to go even a bit deeper. I'm someone who recently quit the game because I'm not any good at it but I know I'll go back to playing again and in my "time off" I'm trying to learn as much as I can, including the mindset a player needs to be successful.

For the regular players, you don't have to be a full time pro, just someone who plays regularly and is a winning player how many sessions are:

1. Winning sessions
2. Losing sessions
3. Big winning sessions (which I define as more than two buy ins)
4. Big losing sessions (again more than two buy ins)
5. Very big winners (5 buy ins)
6. Very big losers (5 buy ins)

I'd appreciate any honest answers your comfortable giving. I guess I feel like the regs in the room I played in seemed to always win and I know nobody wins every session. I'm just trying to come up with realistic expectations if/when I start to play again.

Thanks.
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Old 02-26-2018, 09:45 AM   #20931
MikeStarr
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Re: How many of your live sessions are winning sessions?

These numbers aren't all that important in the grand scheme of things but it does feel good to leave the casino after winning. The numbers are also dependent on how long your sessions are. The longer your sessions are, the higher your win % will be. If a winning player played one long never ending session, his win % would be 100%. My avg session length is about 4 hours.

1) 71%
2) 29%
3) 7%
4) 1.5%
5) 1 time...less than 1%
6) Never
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Old 02-26-2018, 09:48 AM   #20932
Submerged
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Re: How many of your live sessions are winning sessions?

Data from me from 1/1/2017 through today:
154 Sessions / 92 winners (60%) - my lifetime is 61%
3 winners over 2K, 0 losses over 2K (one of those 3 is over $2.5K for your 5 buy-in question)
12 1K winners, 11 1K losses
you didn't ask, but for where my data stands out 33 winners between 500 - 1K and 19 losses between 500 - 1K

Data is primarily $1-3 but does include $2-5 (I buy-in for $500 for both), and also some $1-2 ($300 buy-in)
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Old 02-26-2018, 10:11 AM   #20933
VipassanaMan
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Re: How many of your live sessions are winning sessions?

These are my numbers from my records. Mostly 1/2 NL with some 1/3 NL thrown in.

1) 72%
2) 28%
3) 3%
4) never
5) never
6) never
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Old 02-26-2018, 10:59 AM   #20934
Homey D. Clown
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Since 1/1/2017 (540 hours, average session length 4,5 hours; stakes 49% €2/4, 38% €5/5, 13% €2/2):

1. Winning sessions
62% (2016 and 2017 combined was 58%, but this year has started with a bang)

2. Losing sessions
38%

3. Big winning sessions (which I define as more than two buy ins)
28% (1 buy-in being 100bb, but I mostly buy-in for about 125bb and sometimes top up to 200bb)

4. Big losing sessions (again more than two buy ins)
8%

5. Very big winners (5 buy ins)
3%

6. Very big losers (5 buy ins)
2% (twice, both times exactly 500bb, which was my stop-loss)

Last edited by Homey D. Clown; 02-26-2018 at 11:15 AM.
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Old 02-26-2018, 12:00 PM   #20935
meale
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

60% wins. When I lose, I lose small. When I win, I win small or big.
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Old 02-26-2018, 02:25 PM   #20936
ZippyThePinhead
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Re: How many of your live sessions are winning sessions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pensfan View Post

1. Winning sessions
2. Losing sessions
3. Big winning sessions (which I define as more than two buy ins)
4. Big losing sessions (again more than two buy ins)
5. Very big winners (5 buy ins)
6. Very big losers (5 buy ins)

Thanks.

1) 131
2) 88
3) 27
4) 11
5) 5
6) 1

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Old 02-26-2018, 02:56 PM   #20937
gobbledygeek
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Re: How many of your live sessions are winning sessions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pensfan View Post
1. Winning sessions
2. Losing sessions
3. Big winning sessions (which I define as more than two buy ins)
4. Big losing sessions (again more than two buy ins)
5. Very big winners (5 buy ins)
6. Very big losers (5 buy ins)
492 sessions over 3823 hours. If I've manually counted right, my results are:

1. 321 (65%)
2. 169 (34%)
3. 74 (15%) (assuming 100bb as a BI)
4. 18 (4%)
5. 4 (1%)
6. 0 (0%)

But, as Mike says, a lot has to do with your session length.

And also has a lot to do with your game. I'm to 3823 hours now at my 1/3 NL game, but that's going into its 9th year, and things simply change over time. For instance, my session winning percentages the last 3 years are all at about 58% (and way down from 70%+ over my first few years). And my bigs wins are *way* down as the game changed from very very very good to now just simply good.

Will also have a lot to do with your style and how deep a game you play in.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 02-26-2018, 03:46 PM   #20938
samo
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Since retirement, 02/18/17:

1. 55%
2. 45%
3. 12%
4. 2% (note that I limit losses to 2 BIs)
5-6. 0%

Post# 20912 in this thread contains my recently posted results.

Good regs don't always win. They quickly top-off/reload, so don't be fooled by seeing them with perpetual stacks.
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Old 02-26-2018, 05:19 PM   #20939
reliv
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Re: How many of your live sessions are winning sessions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
These numbers aren't all that important in the grand scheme of things but it does feel good to leave the casino after winning. The numbers are also dependent on how long your sessions are. The longer your sessions are, the higher your win % will be. If a winning player played one long never ending session, his win % would be 100%. My avg session length is about 4 hours.

1) 71%
2) 29%
3) 7%
4) 1.5%
5) 1 time...less than 1%
6) Never
I'm being nitpicky here, but I imagine you mean, if a winning player [could] play an infinite session.

A better way to frame it is if a winning player combines all of their sessions as one never-ending session, that player wins at 100% rate.

In the real world, I think we approach our true winrate (bb/hr) when we play optimal session lengths. Less than optimal session lengths adversely affecting that, but when the game is good, the gain in edge overcomes the loss in edge from fatigue.

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Old 02-26-2018, 05:53 PM   #20940
Pensfan
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Wow, thank you all for the detailed responses. I'm impressed at your stat tracking, well done.

It does put things in perspective for me as I've felt winning players simply walk in and win 95% of the time. Seeing 60-70% honestly surprises me, but in a good way.

I feel less inferior now knowing winning players have losing sessions more than I thought.

I appreciate the honesty.
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Old 02-26-2018, 06:11 PM   #20941
Dizzyqtp
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Re: How many of your live sessions are winning sessions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pensfan View Post
1. Winning sessions
2. Losing sessions
3. Big winning sessions (which I define as more than two buy ins)
4. Big losing sessions (again more than two buy ins)
5. Very big winners (5 buy ins)
6. Very big losers (5 buy ins)
my lifetime NL results; 2200 hours total across 1/2; 1/3; 2/5; T/T

Total Sessions: 464
1. Winning Sessions: 270 (58%)
2. Losing Sessions: 190 (41%)
3. +200bb Sessions: 109 (23%)
4. -200bb Sessions: 55 (12%)
5. +500bb Sessions: 19 (4%)
6. -500bb Sessions: 5 (1%)
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Old 02-26-2018, 07:06 PM   #20942
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pensfan View Post
Wow, thank you all for the detailed responses. I'm impressed at your stat tracking, well done.

It does put things in perspective for me as I've felt winning players simply walk in and win 95% of the time. Seeing 60-70% honestly surprises me, but in a good way.

I feel less inferior now knowing winning players have losing sessions more than I thought.

I appreciate the honesty.
No one is winning remotely close to 95% of sessions (assuming non lol sample size and no play-until-winning-no-matter-how-many-hours strategy); there's just too much short term variance for that to happen.

If I read things right, I believe Sol hints earlier (within the last few pages) that crushers might actually have fairly meh results when it comes to winning percentages and big losses (and Dizzy's totals above might back that up a bit). i.e. You could probably play a really super nit strategy that might produce a high session winning percentage and limit losses but it might not necessarily (???) be the most crushing strategy for the game you play in (although it would likely still be a winning strategy).

GgoodluckG
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Old 02-26-2018, 07:43 PM   #20943
Dizzyqtp
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Re: How many of your live sessions are winning sessions?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
No one is winning remotely close to 95% of sessions (assuming non lol sample size and no play-until-winning-no-matter-how-many-hours strategy); there's just too much short term variance for that to happen.

If I read things right, I believe Sol hints earlier (within the last few pages) that crushers might actually have fairly meh results when it comes to winning percentages and big losses (and Dizzy's totals above might back that up a bit). i.e. You could probably play a really super nit strategy that might produce a high session winning percentage and limit losses but it might not necessarily (???) be the most crushing strategy for the game you play in (although it would likely still be a winning strategy).

GgoodluckG
yup, +1 to this (hey gg we finally agree on something ). No one is winning anywhere near 90%+ of sessions and a higher win % doesn't necessarily mean a higher win-rate (win % is a pretty meaningless stat imo). It is all about maximizing the wins and minimizing the losses (in $$$ amount)

my stats vs my win rates for reference:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
my lifetime NL results; 2200 hours total across 1/2; 1/3; 2/5; T/T

Total Sessions: 464
1. Winning Sessions: 270 (58%)
2. Losing Sessions: 190 (41%)
3. +200bb Sessions: 109 (23%)
4. -200bb Sessions: 55 (12%)
5. +500bb Sessions: 19 (4%)
6. -500bb Sessions: 5 (1%)
1/2NL: 812hrs @ 12.9bb/hr
1/3NL: 95 hrs @ 22.4bb/hr
2/5NL: 990 hrs @ 11.7bb/hr
T/TNL: 270 hrs @ 13.5bb/hr
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Old 02-26-2018, 07:47 PM   #20944
NeA
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Lifetime 1/2 deep. 786 hours, 107 sessions.

1. Winning Sessions: 62.6%
2. Losing Sessions: 37.4%
3. +200bb Sessions: 37%
4. -200bb Sessions: 18%
5. +500bb Sessions: 11%
6. -500bb Sessions: 3%.

16.5bb/hr WR.
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Old 02-26-2018, 09:21 PM   #20945
Pork Fri Rize
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How many years is lifetime and why didn't u move up yet
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Old 02-26-2018, 10:46 PM   #20946
NeA
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Just over 1 year and it's the highest stake that runs in my city.
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Old 02-27-2018, 08:01 AM   #20947
squid face
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

last 540 sessions of 2/5
win 365 (65% winners)
w/r 11.17 bb/hr

I do not lock up wins. I dont really have a stop loss. But I will leave if i feel like my game is off. Dont know how to sort biggest losses or biggest wins. But I do know my largest wins are bigger than my largest losses and I have a hell of a lot more of em.

As someone who wins at a high clip - I would obviously love to win more than 65% of my sessions. But this is what makes poker beautiful. Gamboolers who dont keep records are able to delude themselves into believing that they can beat the game cuz they remember the wins and forget the losses. AND they can say stuff like well I would be winning this year if it wasnt for that guy that chased that draw and spiked, or that time I got tilted and sprayed, or that time I was drunk, etc, etc. They win often enough to keep coming back for more
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Old 02-27-2018, 08:31 AM   #20948
DeathCabForTootie
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

my new tracking app doesn't allow me to figure out % of sessions won without exporting it to excel so I'm going to assume over the last 420 hours i won 69% of my sessions.
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Old 02-27-2018, 08:40 AM   #20949
meale
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
last 540 sessions of 2/5
win 365 (65% winners)
w/r 11.17 bb/hr

I do not lock up wins. I dont really have a stop loss. But I will leave if i feel like my game is off. Dont know how to sort biggest losses or biggest wins. But I do know my largest wins are bigger than my largest losses and I have a hell of a lot more of em.

As someone who wins at a high clip - I would obviously love to win more than 65% of my sessions. But this is what makes poker beautiful. Gamboolers who dont keep records are able to delude themselves into believing that they can beat the game cuz they remember the wins and forget the losses. AND they can say stuff like well I would be winning this year if it wasnt for that guy that chased that draw and spiked, or that time I got tilted and sprayed, or that time I was drunk, etc, etc. They win often enough to keep coming back for more
What's the buyin cap and rake structure at your 2/5? Not sure if I've asked you this before...
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Old 02-27-2018, 10:11 AM   #20950
squid face
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meale
1k cap 200 min 9 handed
10% rake capped at 5$ & 2$ jackpot drop (the 2nd jackpot dollar gets raked when the pot hits 20$
this game is raked and jackpot dropped pre
so if someone opens to 20 and I 3 ball em and everyone folds they will rake the full 7 cuz they round up. If I steal the blinds the house policy is to rake 2$ (1 & 1)but some dealers will only rake 1.

This preflop rake is insanely expensive
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