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Old 02-23-2018, 08:35 AM   #20901
Petrucci
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yes there is. Ive experienced it many times, one time the grinder flashed me AJ before folding in a spot like that last to act, and said with a frustrated look on his face that "i dont want to gamble like this right now".

Risk aversion is more common than you would think, even amongst steadily winning players.
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Old 02-23-2018, 09:01 AM   #20902
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
this is a good way to get yourself killed if u dont know how to fight. especially if they know u have money and keep it all in your checking account, they will kill u for your atm card and pin. would anyone be willing to take a stranger into their house and rent to them dirt cheap, not worrying about their own safety unless they planned to be the villian themselves?

i only stay with people ive known at least 20 yrs. and no responsible person would do the same, unless they knew how to fight if attacked in someone else home. with the exception of very naive kids 18-30. no one gets roommates once they pass 40. women lose all respect for u when u dont have your own place.

i would never trust anyone i didnt know without first browsing their facebook profile and finding out who they voted for and how they feel about certain moral and social issues. if they a fraction of the inch to the left of me, (and im on the far right on about every social issue) id be scared to risk trusting them, for fear they would hate me for holding different views. some would feel theyre doing the world a service by killing a conservative.
Wow. I don't know where to start... So I wont. GL.
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Old 02-23-2018, 09:34 AM   #20903
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
Like i know several grinders who are so damn risk averse that they are capping their own winrate.

Lets say you have a maniac sitting on $1000 in a 2-5 game. Maniac is on tilt and have announced he is blind allin pre, before cards are dealt. His chips is already in the middle across the betting line before cards are dealt, so its no angling possible. These risk averse grinders will literally fold hands like AJ or AQ off in this spot, because they think its too much to put in pre and too high variance against a blind hand. Even though youre obviously destroying maniacs range of any two cards with those hands. What many rock/grinders want if possible is _variance free money_, and this attitude is having an impact on their whole view on poker+ how they due to risk aversion pass on quite alot of decent spots.
This is nearly entirely a function of most people being under rolled for the stakes they are playing.
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Old 02-23-2018, 09:40 AM   #20904
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It's usually not. It's like a 1bb game (if you have 1k yourself) and you're UTG with AQ. You could definitely jam here profitably.

If you're last to act you should be calling waaaay wider than that.
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Old 02-23-2018, 09:53 AM   #20905
Petrucci
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
This is nearly entirely a function of most people being under rolled for the stakes they are playing.
I can agree on that being the case in some instances, (and i absolutely agree that many liveplayers simply play way too underrolled). However its quite interesting that my experience with risk aversion often manifests itself when it comes to grinders with decent or big rolls, not vastly underrolled players.

To me it almost seems like an uncle scrooge concept type of personality thing. Like they have a decent amount of money because they are life nits, and also as a consequence they are allergic to variance in poker- and therefor they try to avoid marginal spots at almost all cost.
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Old 02-23-2018, 12:17 PM   #20906
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
It's usually not. It's like a 1bb game (if you have 1k yourself) and you're UTG with AQ. You could definitely jam here profitably.

If you're last to act you should be calling waaaay wider than that.
We used to have a guy in our game that would occasionally straddle all in blind like that. Often enough that I actually worked out the exact range you need to be favored there. If you're closing the action HU it's *absurdly* wide. Like J3o+ wide to be better than 50%.

Edit: Found it (was ITT I thought):

Hand 0: 41.870% 40.38% 01.49% 553966234484 20410589878.00 { random }
Hand 1: 58.130% 56.64% 01.49% 777024935360 20410589878.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J6s+, T7s+, 98s, A2o+, K2o+, Q5o+, J8o+, T9o}

Last edited by Angrist; 02-23-2018 at 12:24 PM. Reason: Found Range
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Old 02-23-2018, 01:57 PM   #20907
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Note that there are no hands in that range that are behind a random range. That's why the overall range is 58%, because the top end are huge favorites, skewing the average up and hands like J8o and Q5o are above 50%% against ATC, believe it or not.
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Old 02-23-2018, 02:15 PM   #20908
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

was super fun during online snapping those hands in sngs/mtts bvb
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Old 02-23-2018, 02:17 PM   #20909
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Would not recommend calling a blind all-in with J3o if it is >9 bb deep.

Hand 0: 45.276% 42.97% 02.31% 10815107388 581140614.00 { J3o }
Hand 1: 54.724% 52.42% 02.31% 13193480184 581140614.00 { random }
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Old 02-23-2018, 02:26 PM   #20910
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Look at the actual range he posted, not the vague memory. Bottom is J8o (actually, Q5o is worse).
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Old 02-23-2018, 02:28 PM   #20911
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Note that there are no hands in that range that are behind a random range. That's why the overall range is 58%, because the top end are huge favorites, skewing the average up and hands like J8o and Q5o are above 50%% against ATC, believe it or not.
Yup. Good catch. We had a bit of a debate about that in the other thread when developing the range and debating what the range should look like with players left to act behind us.


Quote:
Originally Posted by gangip View Post
Would not recommend calling a blind all-in with J3o if it is >9 bb deep.

Hand 0: 45.276% 42.97% 02.31% 10815107388 581140614.00 { J3o }
Hand 1: 54.724% 52.42% 02.31% 13193480184 581140614.00 { random }
Yea, it's actually J8o and Q5o. I was a little bit off. Although I guess you could argue that there's some value in calling a touch wider to encourage gambly behavior from the guy. Or to get a shot at the money now before someone else calls the next hand.
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Old 02-23-2018, 07:17 PM   #20912
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Recently I completed a year anniversary since my retirement last February. Having more free time allowed me to play more frequently and record some decent volume. My sessions were played in a single room, with a mostly favorable (obviously relative) player pool. I don’t have graphs but here is a summary of the year-long trek in $2/$5NL.

Sessions: 104
Hours: 454
Earnings: $16,453
Hourly: 7.2 BBS, $36.24

Observations:
1. The results of this sample improved my overall hourly by ~23%.
2. There are sessions where the random sample of hands are absolutely the pits. Recently I had a VPIP of 6 over 3.75 hours. My VPIP is 17, raising ~65% of those (17/11).
3. The downswings are indeed very ugly. My worst was a $3.9k downer.
4. I normally don’t count W/L session % but noted that I had lost several consecutively (6). I calculated my W/L at 55%, which is lower than lifetime of 62%.
5. Limiting my losses to 2 BIs helps my hourly dramatically. I find that while my level of play doesn’t necessarily suffer, my mental state has an edge, sort of a “woe is me” tude.
6. While the weekday games are a bit tougher, they are not markedly so.
7. Need to improve my ability to analyze flop textures in pots I have raised pre.
8. Some skilled players can transparently embrace variance, managing table and player pool relationships well. I am improving in this area.

Any, and all comments are welcome. Thanks for reading.
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Old 02-23-2018, 07:42 PM   #20913
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
Yes there is. Ive experienced it many times, one time the grinder flashed me AJ before folding in a spot like that last to act, and said with a frustrated look on his face that "i dont want to gamble like this right now".

Risk aversion is more common than you would think, even amongst steadily winning players.
Where are you playing? LA?
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Old 02-23-2018, 07:54 PM   #20914
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Originally Posted by samo View Post
5. Limiting my losses to 2 BIs helps my hourly dramatically. I find that while my level of play doesn’t necessarily suffer, my mental state has an edge, sort of a “woe is me” tude.
This is (sometimes) a good stopgap measure to get you out of games where you're overmatched but don't *realize* that you're overmatched too.
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Old 02-23-2018, 09:39 PM   #20915
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Guy goes all-in for $1K & I'm last to act. He says, "Come on man! Give me a lil' action!" & turns over his hand. I have 55% equity. I am not calling, because $1k is 1/10th my bankroll, well it would be 1/11th if I'm up that much, and I lose 4x in a row 4.1% of the time, which is slightly less than chance of getting runner/runner flush [4.25%] & I see it numerous times in a month. PLUS: How often does that situation come up?
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Old 02-23-2018, 09:56 PM   #20916
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Originally Posted by samo View Post
Sessions: 104
Hours: 454
Earnings: $16,453
Hourly: 7.2 BBS, $36.24
Solid results, wp
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Old 02-23-2018, 10:44 PM   #20917
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Guy goes all-in for $1K & I'm last to act. He says, "Come on man! Give me a lil' action!" & turns over his hand. I have 55% equity. I am not calling, because $1k is 1/10th my bankroll, well it would be 1/11th if I'm up that much, and I lose 4x in a row 4.1% of the time, which is slightly less than chance of getting runner/runner flush [4.25%] & I see it numerous times in a month. PLUS: How often does that situation come up?
Someone says "hey, you want $100?" and I say "nah, I can't handle the swings"

stand up
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Old 02-23-2018, 11:29 PM   #20918
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Guy goes all-in for $1K & I'm last to act. He says, "Come on man! Give me a lil' action!" & turns over his hand. I have 55% equity. I am not calling, because $1k is 1/10th my bankroll, well it would be 1/11th if I'm up that much, and I lose 4x in a row 4.1% of the time, which is slightly less than chance of getting runner/runner flush [4.25%] & I see it numerous times in a month. PLUS: How often does that situation come up?
What? Don't play with 1/10th of your bankroll on the table then
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Old 02-23-2018, 11:37 PM   #20919
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
What? Don't play with 1/10th of your bankroll on the table then
This!

10% edge is huge!
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Old 02-24-2018, 03:50 AM   #20920
setintostraight
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by samo View Post
Recently I completed a year anniversary since my retirement last February. Having more free time allowed me to play more frequently and record some decent volume. My sessions were played in a single room, with a mostly favorable (obviously relative) player pool. I don’t have graphs but here is a summary of the year-long trek in $2/$5NL.

Sessions: 104
Hours: 454
Earnings: $16,453
Hourly: 7.2 BBS, $36.24

Observations:
1. The results of this sample improved my overall hourly by ~23%.
2. There are sessions where the random sample of hands are absolutely the pits. Recently I had a VPIP of 6 over 3.75 hours. My VPIP is 17, raising ~65% of those (17/11).
3. The downswings are indeed very ugly. My worst was a $3.9k downer.
4. I normally don’t count W/L session % but noted that I had lost several consecutively (6). I calculated my W/L at 55%, which is lower than lifetime of 62%.
5. Limiting my losses to 2 BIs helps my hourly dramatically. I find that while my level of play doesn’t necessarily suffer, my mental state has an edge, sort of a “woe is me” tude.
6. While the weekday games are a bit tougher, they are not markedly so.
7. Need to improve my ability to analyze flop textures in pots I have raised pre.
8. Some skilled players can transparently embrace variance, managing table and player pool relationships well. I am improving in this area.

Any, and all comments are welcome. Thanks for reading.
Solid results. What is your bankroll and typical buy-in? What are the typical stacks at your table?
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Old 02-24-2018, 08:41 AM   #20921
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Originally Posted by setintostraight View Post
Solid results. What is your bankroll and typical buy-in? What are the typical stacks at your table?
Thx.

I have a life bankroll, poker is part of it. That said, I do deposit monthly profits in a separate bank account, but also use those funds for life things like daughter's braces, vaca, etc. so the $ is fungible.

I BI for 120 bbs. This week I will increase to 140 ($700). Max is $1k with avg stack usually in the $700-$800 range.
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Old 02-24-2018, 10:44 AM   #20922
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Or to get a shot at the money now before someone else calls the next hand.
You've got that backwards, there's no benefit to putting money in bad and sucking out, and it's detrimental if busting V means he quits the game.

There'd actually be value in passing on a thin edge, and giving villain a chance to suck out on another player and win more money to give away. How much value, depends on your relative position and the rest of the table

in practice i'd just call whatever's immediately +ev

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Guy goes all-in for $1K & I'm last to act. He says, "Come on man! Give me a lil' action!" & turns over his hand. I have 55% equity. I am not calling, because $1k is 1/10th my bankroll, well it would be 1/11th if I'm up that much, and I lose 4x in a row 4.1% of the time, which is slightly less than chance of getting runner/runner flush [4.25%] & I see it numerous times in a month. PLUS: How often does that situation come up?
You're throwing $100 in the garbage if you can't take that gamble. Might still be a wise decision given BR but you don't really get better spots than that (and you might just be better racking up if it's a BR concern.)
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Old 02-24-2018, 03:45 PM   #20923
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Guy goes all-in for $1K & I'm last to act. He says, "Come on man! Give me a lil' action!" & turns over his hand. I have 55% equity. I am not calling, because $1k is 1/10th my bankroll, well it would be 1/11th if I'm up that much, and I lose 4x in a row 4.1% of the time, which is slightly less than chance of getting runner/runner flush [4.25%] & I see it numerous times in a month. PLUS: How often does that situation come up?
I'm going to say this is fine, actually, depending on how many BB $1k is.

It is possible to be rolled for a game without being rolled for every possible situation which could possibly come up. If this is a 1|2 game and $1k is 500BBs, it's fine to wait for a bigger edge to put in a full stack. If it's a 5|T game, not so much.

In fact, it's impossible to be rolled for every possible +EV situation which could come up. Even with a 1000 BI roll we're not rolled to take a .01% edge for 1 BI.

Back to this example, risking 10% of our bankroll on an even money wager for a 10% edge is actually optimal for bankroll growth according to Kelly. However, this doesn't quite work for poker since we can't scale our bets in future hands if we lose. If we lose this hand we lose some of our future opportunities to make money. I'd fold this too.
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Old 02-24-2018, 04:14 PM   #20924
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I agree. It makes perfect sense to both stay in the game but also pass on this edge.

We make 0 dollar if we get up and leave. We can still be profitable and take bigger edged spots with much lower variance by staying. It's big yes, but not worth 10% of the roll to take up this spot given RoR considerations. Obviously if you can replenish the roll, take the edge. If not, its okay to fold.

I've made some pretty big folds in my first year or so, or particularly when I was shot taking, not even because RoR necessarily but the swing would be big enough that I wouldn't have had taken another shot for a while if I lost, thus likely losing more $ longterm than the actual EV of the hand. And yet, I still think it was correct for me to stay in those games, even if I wasn't willing to correctly stack off for 400bb
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Old 02-24-2018, 05:18 PM   #20925
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Sure, we can come with justifiable scenarios and all that. But I think it's worth reiterating that if you're turning down 55% spots, you're probably doing it wrong.
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