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Old 02-21-2018, 11:21 AM   #20851
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If I couldnt answer these questions, I wouldnt be trying to play 1/2 for a living.
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Old 02-21-2018, 11:36 AM   #20852
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Buying in for 10 percent of your total bankroll is crazyness imo (if you dont have anymore money, other type of safetynet or other sources of income), and will put you into a decent chance of going totally busto if you hit a real downswing. Like if you have a $2000 roll and buys into 1/2 games for $200 at a time, you are just praying that you dont go on a downswing in order for you to not go busto. Its poor bankrollmanagement, and its demonstrating a poor understanding of the very possible swings in poker if youre gonna play your A game- wich amongst other things consists of not being scared money and not being afraid of taking the spots that occure.

Also what Mike said. If you are unsure of such basic things i think its very very likely youre not ready to go pro and play cards for a living.
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Old 02-21-2018, 12:51 PM   #20853
daniel9861
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
if someone plays $1-2 NL at a place with NO CAP on the maximum buyin, how much should they buyin for? im sure not buying in more than i have to i usually buyin $100-120. this is a little low since my roll is $13,000 but once u subtract 6 months of living expenses (and take into account this is the lowest my roll has been in 2 yrs) my roll is about as low as u can get.

forget about my situation, im not changing my buyin (unless i start doing $200 instead of $100-120) but how much do MOST of u buyin for? assume that u arent getting any other income and cannot replace it if u lose the whole $13,000 and will be homeless and panhandling if u go busto. and assume that like me, your hourly will run somewhere between $12 and $20 per hour
Kinda hard to answer that without knowing just how much of the roll the 6mo living expenses represents.
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Old 02-21-2018, 01:18 PM   #20854
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Regarding BIing short versus deepstack is also pretty dependent on an accurate view of your skill advantage over the table short vs deep. My guess (?) is that most overestimate their skill advantage deep, but I could be wrong (simply cuz I suck at deepstack myself).

And I've yet to play in games where anyone is punting big stacks on a regular basis with lol holdings (and yet people punt small stacks *all the time* with lol holdings), so I kinda think the whole deepstack thing is a bit of a myth. Even most massive fish who punt shortstacks all the time play deepstacks vastly differently, imo. Although having said that, I can see how if you definitely do have a big edge deepstacked then it could perhaps be a goldmine; but you have to know you have a big edge.

Gshortstackingisfine,imoG
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Old 02-21-2018, 01:29 PM   #20855
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

GG 1 hunnit percent correct here. Most would be significantly better off not playing deep.

Also your new avatar sux ass. You should use the 1 miami suggested
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Old 02-21-2018, 01:32 PM   #20856
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

When speaking about deep stack we r thinking of 200bb+?Deep stack,in theory,should reduce variance ("luck" factor).Probably that's why rules in that Libratus vs Humans match were -every next hand resetting to 200bb.
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Old 02-21-2018, 04:14 PM   #20857
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by disident View Post
When speaking about deep stack we r thinking of 200bb+?Deep stack,in theory,should reduce variance ("luck" factor).Probably that's why rules in that Libratus vs Humans match were -every next hand resetting to 200bb.
I challenge anyone to provide convincing evidence that the variance of our results in dollars decreases with stack depth.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
if someone plays $1-2 NL at a place with NO CAP on the maximum buyin, how much should they buyin for? im sure not buying in more than i have to i usually buyin $100-120. this is a little low since my roll is $13,000 but once u subtract 6 months of living expenses (and take into account this is the lowest my roll has been in 2 yrs) my roll is about as low as u can get.

forget about my situation, im not changing my buyin (unless i start doing $200 instead of $100-120) but how much do MOST of u buyin for? assume that u arent getting any other income and cannot replace it if u lose the whole $13,000 and will be homeless and panhandling if u go busto. and assume that like me, your hourly will run somewhere between $12 and $20 per hour
There is a formula to calculate risk of ruin depending on your bankroll, SD and win-rate. You do not need to subtract 6 months of living expenses to figure out your "poker bankroll." Your poker bankroll should NOT be considered separately from your living expenses, except for an emergency fund. A month or two of living expenses should be fine, so that if you go busto you don't have to live on the street while you look for a job (AFAIK it doesn't take six months to find a job).

Use the calculator here:

http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/poke...uirements.html

Before you enter your win-rate, you need to make an adjustment for your expenses. Take your monthly expenses and divide by the number of hours you play in a month, and subtract that from your win-rate.

When inputting your numbers err on the side of caution. It is more costly to overestimate your win-rate than underestimate it.

Both your SD and win-rate are going to depend on what you buy in for, and it's hard to model. If you are used to buying in for 100-120, I would just stick to that, since drastically changing your strategy is risky and also relies on you to correctly estimate your new win-rate and SD. If your RoR is really small then consider buying in for more and play for awhile to get more data. Don't feel bad about hitting and running. If your stack is above an amount you'd comfortably buy in for, leave. It's Vegas and you can finish your session at a ton of other places.

The actual formula is given by BruceZ (awesome poster!) on this page:
http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/show...fpart=all&vc=1
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Old 02-21-2018, 05:44 PM   #20858
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
lmao get real.

You're never going to buy in 10% of your entire BR if you have absolutely no other source of income/ability to get a well paying job and would be forced into homelessness.

We're answering from his perspective, not our own
Quote:
forget about my situation, im not changing my buyin (unless i start doing $200 instead of $100-120) but how much do MOST of u buyin for?
OP did actually ask how much we personally would buy in for. Yes I would risk 10% bankroll. I did also acknowledge that it went against traditional advice so I don't see where the problem is.

Unless we are highly disabled or have a criminal record homelessness is simply not realistic. Fast food and other **** jobs are always there if worst comes to worst. 10% roll in a fantastic and rare spot vs having to temporarily work a **** job is fine with me.

Last edited by NewClintEastwood; 02-21-2018 at 05:58 PM.
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Old 02-21-2018, 07:36 PM   #20859
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post

And I've yet to play in games where anyone is punting big stacks on a regular basis with lol holdings (and yet people punt small stacks *all the time* with lol holdings), so I kinda think the whole deepstack thing is a bit of a myth.
Gshortstackingisfine,imoG
No lol, you're just not exploiting it.

If they aren't "punting stacks", that means they require a nutted range to call it off for 300+bb. So that means you should put them in super tough spots and overbet 3x pot often when you know their capped.

Obviously if you don't know/aren't willing to bluff and implement such a strat, buying in super deep won't do you much good unless you cooler them .
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Old 02-21-2018, 07:48 PM   #20860
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
4-5 fish sitting $500 deep is a gold mine. That game could be beaten for $50+/hr. Screw the Aria. Id be slumming downtown.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewClintEastwood View Post
Is the golden nugget game really that fishy? I've always held the assumption that downtown games would be bad compared to the strip
Let me put it this way. Golden Nugget is the only place I play $1/2 in Vegas. It is an easy and very profitable game. I haven't seen the fish get their whole huge stacks in very often in my limited sample size, but I've seen medium-sized pots with absolute crap many, many times.

When I go to Vegas, I'm not there to grind. I'm on vacation, and when I play poker I'm usually at $2/5 or at a big donkament, because neither ever runs where I live. If I were grinding, though, I'd probably play at the GN where the other grinders aren't and where stacks are much deeper than the other grinderless spots like the Excalibur, at least until my roll and my skill level allowed me to play bigger games without reducing my winrate or increasing my RoR.

FWIW, I usually BI for $300-400 at the GN, and keep an extra hundo or two in greens in my pocket for topping up if I lose a couple pots or if I see a spot I want to cover. As for what I would do in TBC's case, I'd prob BI for about $250, which would allow SPRs big enough to play some speculative hands, even given the oversize raises that 1/2 often sees.

Last edited by Garick; 02-21-2018 at 07:56 PM. Reason: FWIW: In my very limited sample size, I am winning over $67/hr at GN 1/2
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Old 02-21-2018, 08:32 PM   #20861
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by daniel9861 View Post
Kinda hard to answer that without knowing just how much of the roll the 6mo living expenses represents.
actually i think only 3 months is needed, according to my phone i only have 1 bad month at most per year, sometimes 2, but theyre not consecutive. but only one losing month in poker. it only tracks poker, not any other games.

most of the time in the past 2 years, which is tracked on my phone, my roll was between 13k and 25k. it once got slightly lower and once got higher. most of the time it was about 17 to 19k. in the time period 1993 to 2008 it often was well below 10,000 so im happy with these figures.

so im thinking 2500 per month in rent, food, Uber, and miscellaneous. so if 7500 is needed to hold onto for 3 months, or 15,000 for 6 months, this takes a lot out of the roll, which is why im not comfortable with 2-5 instead of 1-2. sometimes ill play 1-3. when u subtract either 7500 or 15000 whats left is actually the poker roll.

seperating them any way other than mentally is pointless for if u go broke in the living roll u dig into the poker roll to survive. and if the poker roll goes broke, u dig into the living roll to stay in action. when u have been without a job for 25 years with no history of ever having one, and the most u can earn is the minimum wage of 7.25 per hour u wont want one no how.

but yeah if at all possible i would like to start slowly raising my initial starting buyins and seeing if it helps increase my win rate per hour. either this or try to slowly migrate to 2-5, but i dont feel comfortable with 500-1000 swings daily mentally with less than 25k

as to why my roll never gets big about 2 times per year i tend to throw away 20-25 percent on blackjack. bad idea i know but i do have a big plus count when i make them big bets but i bet way too much to get unstuck so if it goes badly, then

at poker im more disciplined by far, u will never see me putting this much of the bankroll at risk. i like to buyin for 1 percent of the roll and hit and run if i get it up to 3 percent.
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Old 02-21-2018, 08:47 PM   #20862
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Originally Posted by NewClintEastwood View Post
OP did actually ask how much we personally would buy in for. Yes I would risk 10% bankroll. I did also acknowledge that it went against traditional advice so I don't see where the problem is.

Unless we are highly disabled or have a criminal record homelessness is simply not realistic. Fast food and other **** jobs are always there if worst comes to worst. 10% roll in a fantastic and rare spot vs having to temporarily work a **** job is fine with me.
yeah... how much we would buy in for given his circumstances.

lol, you're never going to build another roll AND pay bills grinding an $8/hr job. All your money will go towards sustaining yourself via rent/food etc.

Even if you score a $10/hr job and work 50 hour a week, that's ~1600/month after taxes. Food/rent is going to cost you at least 800/month unless youre in a total ****-hole eating ramen. Add on phone/internet and anything else you might buy as to not lose your sanity, and you're looking at maybe 1-2 buy ins per month (again, assuming you live with the bare minimum).

So, it'd take you about 6 months of grinding through hell to get back to a opportunity to play poker again. When you've never worked a job before and you have to work a fastfood/retail job for 50 hours a week, and your home/food is **** as well, well, idk about you but I'd go insane.

As I've said before, if this is your reality if you go busto, then your Risk of ruin is wayyyy more important then maximizing EV. Buying in for 10% of insane.
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Old 02-21-2018, 08:51 PM   #20863
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If you've like, never gone above 25k net in your entire life, you should really reassess what you're doing. What are you going to do another 20 years from now when you're very old with 0 savings?

You should try cutting down expenses and actually working on your game and give yourself a chance to either exploit fish more by being over-rolled or play some 2/5. I mean, I guess having sustained yourself for 25 years without a job is certainly nice. But I can't imagine it's a super happy life to have "just enough" and be forced to grind 1/2 all the time, worrying that homelessness could be just around the corner.
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Old 02-21-2018, 09:30 PM   #20864
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post

as to why my roll never gets big about 2 times per year i tend to throw away 20-25 percent on blackjack. bad idea i know but i do have a big plus count when i make them big bets but i bet way too much to get unstuck so if it goes badly, then
your logic/discipline is completely outta whack.

Assuming that you play perfect blackjack and count perfectly (which is highly unlikely). Your biggest edge is gunna be close to 5% and you are willing to piss away 20-25% on your roll on that small of an edge - if any at all, and it is highly unlikely that you are paying any attention to Kelly criterion. Yet you will work your ass off grinding while never taking shots at higher stakes and play under 50bb poker at 1/2 (based on posts in other threads)

You are not getting any younger. You seriously need to stop playing playing blackjack
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Old 02-21-2018, 09:54 PM   #20865
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Not sure if you're comment is directed at me or OP but yeah obviously grinding 1/2 with no income, backup plan, or safety net isn't smart. Him saying "forget my situation" makes me think we aren't using his situation. In my own situation ruin wouldn't be ruin and absolute worst case I'd still have a perfectly fine poker free life
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Old 02-21-2018, 10:00 PM   #20866
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Let me put it this way. Golden Nugget is the only place I play $1/2 in Vegas. It is an easy and very profitable game. I haven't seen the fish get their whole huge stacks in very often in my limited sample size, but I've seen medium-sized pots with absolute crap many, many times.

When I go to Vegas, I'm not there to grind. I'm on vacation, and when I play poker I'm usually at $2/5 or at a big donkament, because neither ever runs where I live. If I were grinding, though, I'd probably play at the GN where the other grinders aren't and where stacks are much deeper than the other grinderless spots like the Excalibur, at least until my roll and my skill level allowed me to play bigger games without reducing my winrate or increasing my RoR.

FWIW, I usually BI for $300-400 at the GN, and keep an extra hundo or two in greens in my pocket for topping up if I lose a couple pots or if I see a spot I want to cover. As for what I would do in TBC's case, I'd prob BI for about $250, which would allow SPRs big enough to play some speculative hands, even given the oversize raises that 1/2 often sees.
Good to know. Bellagio and CP have been my go to spots on Vegas trips so I might have to venture over to GN.
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Old 02-21-2018, 10:04 PM   #20867
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
actually i think only 3 months is needed, according to my phone i only have 1 bad month at most per year, sometimes 2, but theyre not consecutive. but only one losing month in poker. it only tracks poker, not any other games.

most of the time in the past 2 years, which is tracked on my phone, my roll was between 13k and 25k. it once got slightly lower and once got higher. most of the time it was about 17 to 19k. in the time period 1993 to 2008 it often was well below 10,000 so im happy with these figures.

so im thinking 2500 per month in rent, food, Uber, and miscellaneous. so if 7500 is needed to hold onto for 3 months, or 15,000 for 6 months, this takes a lot out of the roll, which is why im not comfortable with 2-5 instead of 1-2. sometimes ill play 1-3. when u subtract either 7500 or 15000 whats left is actually the poker roll.

seperating them any way other than mentally is pointless for if u go broke in the living roll u dig into the poker roll to survive. and if the poker roll goes broke, u dig into the living roll to stay in action. when u have been without a job for 25 years with no history of ever having one, and the most u can earn is the minimum wage of 7.25 per hour u wont want one no how.

but yeah if at all possible i would like to start slowly raising my initial starting buyins and seeing if it helps increase my win rate per hour. either this or try to slowly migrate to 2-5, but i dont feel comfortable with 500-1000 swings daily mentally with less than 25k

as to why my roll never gets big about 2 times per year i tend to throw away 20-25 percent on blackjack. bad idea i know but i do have a big plus count when i make them big bets but i bet way too much to get unstuck so if it goes badly, then

at poker im more disciplined by far, u will never see me putting this much of the bankroll at risk. i like to buyin for 1 percent of the roll and hit and run if i get it up to 3 percent.
$2500/month expenses is way too high to be playing 1|2 for a living. Earlier you estimated that your win-rate was $12-$20/h. If we take the conservative side, you need to be playing ~208 hours per month just to cover the cost of living. To have a reasonable RoR you need to play even more than that. Even if you manage to play 250 hours per month, which very few people can do, your adjusted win-rate is only $2/h, and with a $13k roll your RoR is going to be too high. I'm also guessing you're not paying taxes since you didn't mention that in your expenses when it should be one of the biggest ones.

Also, you should not be playing blackjack without a strong understanding of how your bet sizing should depend on your bankroll. Do you know about the Kelly criterion?
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Old 02-21-2018, 10:33 PM   #20868
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by NewClintEastwood View Post
My philosophy would be pretty much what it is at capped games. I buy in for 100bb minimum and the lowest amount that still covers every player I consider myself to have a decent edge on. If there was a fish with $2k id buy in for $2k. If the fish were all sitting on $200 and the pros all on $500 I would buy in for $200. Cover fish and limit risk vs skill.
This is spot on to how I would approach that situation. Must always have the fish covered but no reason to match the stacks of the pros
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Old 02-21-2018, 11:01 PM   #20869
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
your logic/discipline is completely outta whack.

Assuming that you play perfect blackjack and count perfectly (which is highly unlikely). Your biggest edge is gunna be close to 5% and you are willing to piss away 20-25% on your roll on that small of an edge - if any at all, and it is highly unlikely that you are paying any attention to Kelly criterion. Yet you will work your ass off grinding while never taking shots at higher stakes and play under 50bb poker at 1/2 (based on posts in other threads)

You are not getting any younger. You seriously need to stop playing playing blackjack
Not to mention, if you are counting well and using a large enough bet spread to get a reasonable edge, the casinos will spot it immediately and back you off. I'm hardly a blackjack savant, but it took me 6 months to get backed-off from every casino in Vegas, including downtown and off-strip. And one casino trespassed me for it (SLS).
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Old 02-21-2018, 11:43 PM   #20870
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Because no one in Vegas wants to play 1/2 and/or go downtown. The Golden Nugget game is a gold mine. It's not common to have 4-5 fish sitting $2K deep, ime, but I'd bet it happens. It's common to have 4-5 fish sitting ~$500 deep.
I know a place like that. 1/3 tho.
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Old 02-22-2018, 12:52 AM   #20871
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

ive been banned from playing BJ or allowed to only flat bet a few places in my life. but often i try to make it look like im martingaling and i only play shoe games instead of 1-2 deck games so it makes it harder to tell im counting. the thing is im flat betting the min in negative counts and only jacking up the bets in the good counts.

i know im only supposed to bet 1-2% of the roll according to kelly but i have a bad tendency to overbet when im stuck too much. plus sometimes u end up with multiple splits and double downs when u bet 1-2% which makes the total bet much higher. especially when betting 2-3 spots.

most of the past 2 years ive been between 13k and 25k but not ALL of the time. for 3 weeks or so i was briefly just over 40k. then after dropping 25% of the roll twice in a month, i was back down to under 25k. never went back over since. this was late jan-feb in reno of 2017.

but to be honest the reason it got so high in the first place was a very lucky BJ run in downtown vegas in january 2017 right before i went to reno. most of it wasnt from poker.
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Old 02-22-2018, 02:52 AM   #20872
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

@sevencard2003 you should really take squid's advice seriously. the guy has been gambling for a living for a very long time.

i also agree with GG's assessment of deepstack poker. it's sexy to be playing deepstack poker, but most people def overestimate their skill level, myself included.

people are 100% more willing to punt stacks with shorter stacks obviously.
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Old 02-22-2018, 04:58 AM   #20873
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you rarely ever lose 5-6 buyins in a row, you’re certainly not playing properly, and you’re winrate growth will stagnate very quickly. I’d rather play smaller, but in a style that wins more money and teaches valuable skill, than nit peddle at a higher stake for slightly higher winrate. If the games don’t change more hourly is good, but games don’t stay the same.

If you’re not ready to lose a sht ton of buyins, you’re not cut out to move up, and you’re not cut out for staying a pro for the long haul.
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Old 02-22-2018, 05:02 AM   #20874
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I suggest always having 20 buyins for the next lower stake if you want to shot take, and 30-50 buyins if you pay rent and so on, or can’t move down.

Obviously you’re not hoping to lose a lot, but if you play with the goal and/or expectation of not losing a lot, you’re almost certainly going to play subpar poker.

Also in terms of optimising buying size and EV and risk, 60-80bbs is far superior to 100-150 bbs for simple +EV poker.
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Old 02-22-2018, 05:06 AM   #20875
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
If you rarely ever lose 5-6 buyins in a row, you’re certainly not playing properly, and you’re winrate growth will stagnate very quickly. I’d rather play smaller, but in a style that wins more money and teaches valuable skill, than nit peddle at a higher stake for slightly higher winrate. If the games don’t change more hourly is good, but games don’t stay the same.

If you’re not ready to lose a sht ton of buyins, you’re not cut out to move up, and you’re not cut out for staying a pro for the long haul.
I agree for most 2/5 and above games but because of the excessively passive nature of 1/2+1/3 games I think losing 5+ buyins in a row at those games should absolutely be a very rare occurrence. People just don't play back enough or call with strong enough equity for variance to allow that.

Like in a 1/2 game people bluff or call with <20% equity all the time. In bigger games the bluff and calling while behind equity is much higher on average.
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