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Old 02-16-2018, 09:32 PM   #20801
Avaritia
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I once saw the flop with a pocket pair 62 times in a row with out hitting a set and then the 63rd time I hit a set and got stacked.
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Old 02-16-2018, 09:50 PM   #20802
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My one and only trip to Vegas was this past summer. Was there for like 7-8 days played ~70 hours of poker flopped 0 sets. That’s left a sour taste in my mouth (as did the ****ty coke).

Didn’t flop one this past December either. Coincidentally my worst month in nearly 2 years.

<snark removed>

Last edited by Garick; 02-16-2018 at 10:55 PM. Reason: thread standards
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Old 02-16-2018, 10:14 PM   #20803
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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That’s left a sour taste in my mouth (as did the ****ty coke).
Who'd you buy the coke from? Asking for a friend.
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Old 02-16-2018, 10:24 PM   #20804
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Re: 1/3 Downswing

3 things that massively improved my win rate
1. Be more selective of the hands your calling with Pre, and in what position. Especially to raises. Calling to often, and not 3 betting or folding Pre is a huge leak.
2. Study tells. Make. Sure your not giving away, and study your oponnents.
3. Practice ranging your opponents on every street, and play the hand back in your head before you make any marginal river calls. Including tells. Folding more when your behind, and making good calls when your marginally ahead drastically improves your win rate.

This last one isn’t advice, but don’t forget that coolers happen. Don’t beat your self up over set Vs set hands or 2nd nut flush against the nuts agaisnt certain player types. If it’s OMC, that’s one thing. But, OMC’s have tons of tells, use them to your advantage.
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Old 02-16-2018, 10:57 PM   #20805
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Reminder to everyone about the thread standards. If you're not sure what I'm talking about, please re-read the things you agreed to when you entered this thread.
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Old 02-17-2018, 01:52 AM   #20806
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Re: 1/3 Downswing

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Originally Posted by Bostonbryan View Post
So sessions like:
+350
+220
-700
-$600
+750
+450

are completely normal? Considering how this happens a decent amount of the time for me, or I end up booking smaller multiple wins coupled with a massive loss, isn't this something more alarming?
These are actually really small swings. You haven't had any sessions where you won or lost 3+ buyins. I consider this low variance.

On PokerStars for example, I'm up 35 buyins at 2nl and I would have sessions where I won up to 8 buyins or lost up to 6 buyins in less than a thousand hands. This is equivalent to playing a 30hr live session at 1/3 and winning up to $2400 or losing up to $1800 whilst still being a huge winner overall.

My mate used to crush 50nl and he told me that having a 10 buyin swing was normal.
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Old 02-17-2018, 02:02 AM   #20807
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Re: 1/3 Downswing

Forgive me for not spouting the "variance" platitudes.

There is a good chance that you are playing too many hands, are spewing when you should be folding, are calling too much, or bluffing too much.

Start posting some hand histories and let's take a look at how you are playing. Yes, it's good to be breaking even but it' not fun, it's a waste of your time, and it's common among players who are "fit or fold" or manic-aggressive.

-600 followed by -700 at 1/3 needs to be looked at IMO.
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Old 02-17-2018, 04:14 AM   #20808
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I once saw the flop with a pocket pair 62 times in a row with out hitting a set
I genuinely don't believe that hahah you and your fkn analytics. I swear you must have 6 guys with clipboards and spreadsheets who stand behind you every time you play. :')
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Old 02-17-2018, 09:00 AM   #20809
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I genuinely don't believe that hahah you and your fkn analytics. I swear you must have 6 guys with clipboards and spreadsheets who stand behind you every time you play. :')
I swear its not very hard at all. I mean if you play 25% of your hands, you are doing nothing 75% of the time. The 25% of the time you play the hand, you fold before the river a lot of the time.

Including the time in between hands, dealer giving out chips...ect, you are probably sitting idle 90% of the time you are at a poker table. There's plenty of time to record stuff and I have a very good memory.

So far in 2018, Ive called raises with pocket pairs with the intention to set mine 93 times.

Ive hit 14 sets and made $3635 in those hands.

21 times I continued post flop even though I originally was set mining but something during the hand changed my mind. In those hands I made $1360. I won 16 of those hands. 1 of those was a big all in on the flop and I won and in the process I won $465 more than my All in EV so my adjusted profit on these 21 hands is $895 or about $43 per hand.

In the other 58 hands, I lost a total of $1020 by calling preflop and then folding the flop.

This is all very helpful information when determining if Im calling too many raises with small-mid pairs to set mine. Instead of reading a book and using some guys arbitrary formula to determine when I can profitably call a raise with a pp, I record this kind of stuff and determine it on my own. Im not guessing. I know these things for a fact.

It also keep me from getting bored which can be a big problem playng live.
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Old 02-17-2018, 11:18 AM   #20810
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Man I don't know how you have so much free time in between hands to record all this. I'm too busy trying to pay attention to showdowns, bet sizing, physical tells, etc. I think my brain would explode a la Scanners if I tried to record all the stuff you do.
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Old 02-17-2018, 01:44 PM   #20811
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Whats a realistic winrate for the 1/3 games in Vegas if you play mostly during the "good" hours?
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Old 02-17-2018, 03:05 PM   #20812
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How good are you?

General consensus is that if you are beating a game for 10BBs/hour, you are crushing it. Whether you are a crusher, of course, we can't know, but that's about the ceiling in general. Deep games with bad players can sometimes be beaten for more, but Vegas 1/3 does not really fit that criteria often.
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Old 02-17-2018, 03:17 PM   #20813
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Which Vegas 1/3 you play? Aria and Wynn have always been soft in my experience. I played during the WSOP and winter holidays though.
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Old 02-17-2018, 03:54 PM   #20814
daniel9861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I swear its not very hard at all. I mean if you play 25% of your hands, you are doing nothing 75% of the time. The 25% of the time you play the hand, you fold before the river a lot of the time.

Including the time in between hands, dealer giving out chips...ect, you are probably sitting idle 90% of the time you are at a poker table. There's plenty of time to record stuff and I have a very good memory.

So far in 2018, Ive called raises with pocket pairs with the intention to set mine 93 times.

Ive hit 14 sets and made $3635 in those hands.

21 times I continued post flop even though I originally was set mining but something during the hand changed my mind. In those hands I made $1360. I won 16 of those hands. 1 of those was a big all in on the flop and I won and in the process I won $465 more than my All in EV so my adjusted profit on these 21 hands is $895 or about $43 per hand.

In the other 58 hands, I lost a total of $1020 by calling preflop and then folding the flop.

This is all very helpful information when determining if Im calling too many raises with small-mid pairs to set mine. Instead of reading a book and using some guys arbitrary formula to determine when I can profitably call a raise with a pp, I record this kind of stuff and determine it on my own. Im not guessing. I know these things for a fact.

It also keep me from getting bored which can be a big problem playng live.
Impressive stat tracking no doubt.
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Old 02-17-2018, 04:22 PM   #20815
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Mike, the human holdem manager.
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Old 02-17-2018, 04:49 PM   #20816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I swear its not very hard at all. I mean if you play 25% of your hands, you are doing nothing 75% of the time. The 25% of the time you play the hand, you fold before the river a lot of the time.

Including the time in between hands, dealer giving out chips...ect, you are probably sitting idle 90% of the time you are at a poker table. There's plenty of time to record stuff and I have a very good memory.

So far in 2018, Ive called raises with pocket pairs with the intention to set mine 93 times.

Ive hit 14 sets and made $3635 in those hands.

21 times I continued post flop even though I originally was set mining but something during the hand changed my mind. In those hands I made $1360. I won 16 of those hands. 1 of those was a big all in on the flop and I won and in the process I won $465 more than my All in EV so my adjusted profit on these 21 hands is $895 or about $43 per hand.

In the other 58 hands, I lost a total of $1020 by calling preflop and then folding the flop.

This is all very helpful information when determining if Im calling too many raises with small-mid pairs to set mine. Instead of reading a book and using some guys arbitrary formula to determine when I can profitably call a raise with a pp, I record this kind of stuff and determine it on my own. Im not guessing. I know these things for a fact.

It also keep me from getting bored which can be a big problem playng live.

tldr poker sucks.

last night i dropped 6.5 buy ins. i should have a stop loss, but i only play poker like once a month now and so i rather not cut my sessions short.

i would truly say that most of me getting stacked were coolers. King-high flush vs. Ace-high flush on a 3-card flush non-paired board; AK vs KxTd in big 3bet pot all in on a dry Kxx flop he runner runner flush; set over set; flopped straight vs bottom set all in turn he rivers boat. literally like 3-4 more of these types of hands.

other than that, i flopped a straight in a heads-up single raised pot and i c-bet and he folded, i win $25. i flopped middle set in another single raised heads-up pot, i c-bet and i win another $25.

again, tldr, poker sucks.
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Old 02-17-2018, 05:59 PM   #20817
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Originally Posted by jc315 View Post
tldr poker sucks.

last night i dropped 6.5 buy ins. i should have a stop loss, but i only play poker like once a month now and so i rather not cut my sessions short.

i would truly say that most of me getting stacked were coolers. King-high flush vs. Ace-high flush on a 3-card flush non-paired board; AK vs KxTd in big 3bet pot all in on a dry Kxx flop he runner runner flush; set over set; flopped straight vs bottom set all in turn he rivers boat. literally like 3-4 more of these types of hands.

other than that, i flopped a straight in a heads-up single raised pot and i c-bet and he folded, i win $25. i flopped middle set in another single raised heads-up pot, i c-bet and i win another $25.

again, tldr, poker sucks.
Unless you're Mike. He has won 20 straight!
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Old 02-17-2018, 06:49 PM   #20818
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The cards wouldnt cooperate today. The streak is dead at 20. Now back to your regularly scheduled program....
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Old 02-17-2018, 06:52 PM   #20819
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The cards wouldnt cooperate today. The streak is dead at 20. Now back to your regularly scheduled program....
Nice round number to finish it off at. Wp. Now, can you lose for 20 sessions straight!?!?
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Old 02-17-2018, 06:57 PM   #20820
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Nice round number to finish it off at. Wp. Now, can you lose for 20 sessions straight!?!?
I would bet heavily against that. My record is 5
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Old 02-17-2018, 07:28 PM   #20821
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The cards wouldnt cooperate today. The streak is dead at 20. Now back to your regularly scheduled program....
Can you edit your post and just lie to us? Keep the American poker dream alive.
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Old 02-18-2018, 09:51 AM   #20822
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ranma4703 View Post
Wondering what people's biggest downswings and breakeven stretches have been. I've got 165 (and several other ~140) hour breakeven stretches and a $5300 downswing at 2/5 (some 2/5/10). This is over 940 hours while running hot overall
I average 1500 hours a year [since 2014] & $17.xx pr hour. I've played 253.26 hours in 2018 & have averaged $2.60 per hour, winning $658 & $620 of that came in my last 2 sessions. A good part of January was spent stuck in the red.

Damn good thing I avg an additional $2 pr hr in promo money.
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Old 02-18-2018, 10:05 AM   #20823
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Re: 1/3 Downswing

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Originally Posted by Bostonbryan View Post
Trying to look more on 2+2, reading Ed Miller's The Course, studying on Red Chip Poker, etc. I think one of my biggest leaks is just calling off with the worst of it, going on tilt, and not making the right decisions in most spots. I do watch Andrew Neeme's vlogs a lot and see his perspective on calling down a decent size pot with top pair, getting in with speculative hands that probably wouldn't bode well in 1/3, etc. My last session I found myself getting into so many multiway pots and really couldn't do much. (I play in LA, and Temecula and I would say 90% of players are calling stations regardless of my raise size. And I find myself first into the pot raising and get 3-4 callers with like AKo, JJ and make poor decisions on later streets. Maybe I should be tightening up my UTG-UTG+2 range?) Just rambling, but these are the thoughts that are going on these days.
IMO, bold is the bulk of your problem

http://www.tommyangelo.com/reciprocality/
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Old 02-18-2018, 10:16 AM   #20824
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GG has agreed to wear an avatar of my choosing for 30 days if I hit 20 wins in a row. Stay on the look out of his new avatar....coming very soon
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Old 02-18-2018, 10:27 AM   #20825
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Lmao, freaking amazing. Looking forward to some epic laughs on this one Mike
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