Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-13-2018, 06:55 PM   #20776
ZippyThePinhead
adept
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 926
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just looked back through poker income app, my longest winning sessions streak is 9 with average session length of 8.6 hours.

Total poker income db average session length is 8.7 with 67% of them being winners.





Sent from my SM-G955U1 using Tapatalk
ZippyThePinhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2018, 07:10 PM   #20777
thin_slicing
grinder
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: YangGang2020
Posts: 556
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
17 and counting

68.25 hours
+$10212
$149.60/hr

I'm in shock to be honest. My record was 14 and Ive had two 13s but even then the amounts werent this big. My room raised the max buy in to 200BBs in the 2/5 games on Feb 1st and the games have been really good since then.
Are you buying in for the max or sticking at $500? Where I usually play the max is $1000 but I start at 700-800 and chip up once I'm more comfortable with the players.
thin_slicing is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2018, 07:19 PM   #20778
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If its a new table I buy in for $700 for 2 reasons

1) Not very many people are buying in above $500 anyway and I can still top up anytime I need to if/when people get deeper if I havent gotten deeper myself yet.

2) Its intimidating to some recs to see a guy buy in for $1000, especially when some clown walks up and slaps down 10 blacks. He might as well hang a sign around his neck that says "Im a pro". Some of the guys who do that still arent very good but why alert the recs that a pro is at the table? The other day a player actually said out loud "Oh look at the pro!" when a guy sat down with a stack of blacks.

If its a table that's already running, I take a quick look at the stacks while walking by on the way to the cage. So far Ive still been mostly buying for $700 but with more blacks in my pocket. If there's a few deep stacks, especially if they are fish, then I add on discretely. Im not trying to hide anything or trick anyone. I just think its bad for the game to make it really obvious Im out for blood. Although anyone who has put any time in at my room knows me anyway.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2018, 08:20 PM   #20779
Ranma4703
veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: she / her
Posts: 3,008
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hmm that makes sense MikeStarr. I typically go for $1000, because so much of my winrate comes from players who don't know how to handle being 300+bb deep, but I don't want to intimidate anyone. I tend to buy in for reds and greens and have a lot of chips which I think is less of a pro look.

My most wins in a row is 8, with a 5 hour session length. Won $12,000 in 6 weeks at 2/5 (50 hours). 61% winrate overall
Ranma4703 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2018, 09:42 PM   #20780
LordRiverRat
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,513
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thank you guys for not buying in with 10 blacks like some douchebags. Buying in for 10 blacks is just dumb. Unless someone offers you change dealer has to make change for you which slows the game down.
LordRiverRat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2018, 10:02 AM   #20781
Ranma4703
veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: she / her
Posts: 3,008
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
Thank you guys for not buying in with 10 blacks like some douchebags. Buying in for 10 blacks is just dumb. Unless someone offers you change dealer has to make change for you which slows the game down.
There are these chodes that buy into the 2/5/10 game with two $1000 chips and a $500 chip, then post a $500 chip for their $10 blind.

I refuse to make change for them. Go to the goddamn window
Ranma4703 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2018, 10:06 AM   #20782
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ranma4703 View Post
There are these chodes that buy into the 2/5/10 game with two $1000 chips and a $500 chip, then post a $500 chip for their $10 blind.

I refuse to make change for them. Go to the goddamn window
+1
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2018, 02:10 PM   #20783
LordRiverRat
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,513
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nut worst would be the wanna be pros that buy in for three blacks at 1/3...
LordRiverRat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2018, 02:43 PM   #20784
thin_slicing
grinder
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: YangGang2020
Posts: 556
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
If its a new table I buy in for $700 for 2 reasons

1) Not very many people are buying in above $500 anyway and I can still top up anytime I need to if/when people get deeper if I havent gotten deeper myself yet.

2) Its intimidating to some recs to see a guy buy in for $1000, especially when some clown walks up and slaps down 10 blacks. He might as well hang a sign around his neck that says "Im a pro". Some of the guys who do that still arent very good but why alert the recs that a pro is at the table? The other day a player actually said out loud "Oh look at the pro!" when a guy sat down with a stack of blacks.

If its a table that's already running, I take a quick look at the stacks while walking by on the way to the cage. So far Ive still been mostly buying for $700 but with more blacks in my pocket. If there's a few deep stacks, especially if they are fish, then I add on discretely. Im not trying to hide anything or trick anyone. I just think its bad for the game to make it really obvious Im out for blood. Although anyone who has put any time in at my room knows me anyway.
This makes a lot of sense.
thin_slicing is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2018, 03:05 PM   #20785
setintostraight
adept
 
setintostraight's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 851
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
If its a new table I buy in for $700 for 2 reasons

1) Not very many people are buying in above $500 anyway and I can still top up anytime I need to if/when people get deeper if I havent gotten deeper myself yet.

2) Its intimidating to some recs to see a guy buy in for $1000, especially when some clown walks up and slaps down 10 blacks. He might as well hang a sign around his neck that says "Im a pro". Some of the guys who do that still arent very good but why alert the recs that a pro is at the table? The other day a player actually said out loud "Oh look at the pro!" when a guy sat down with a stack of blacks.

If its a table that's already running, I take a quick look at the stacks while walking by on the way to the cage. So far Ive still been mostly buying for $700 but with more blacks in my pocket. If there's a few deep stacks, especially if they are fish, then I add on discretely. Im not trying to hide anything or trick anyone. I just think its bad for the game to make it really obvious Im out for blood. Although anyone who has put any time in at my room knows me anyway.
Tips like these are amazing and why I love live poker. It's so much more than math/vpip and there are +EV strategies that have nothing to do with your or your opponents cards.
setintostraight is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2018, 06:05 PM   #20786
Pork Fri Rize
Pooh-Bah
 
Pork Fri Rize's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Elbow reconstructive surgery center
Posts: 5,322
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
17 and counting

68.25 hours
+$10212
$149.60/hr

I'm in shock to be honest. My record was 14 and Ive had two 13s but even then the amounts werent this big. My room raised the max buy in to 200BBs in the 2/5 games on Feb 1st and the games have been really good since then.

As I usually start my sessions after 5/6pm, yep I have seen dozens of faces I've never seen before. Most of them middle aged guys with money.
Pork Fri Rize is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2018, 02:51 PM   #20787
Askesis
centurion
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 137
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'll see you gents this weekend. Sorry in advance...
Askesis is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-16-2018, 05:05 PM   #20788
Bostonbryan
centurion
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 139
1/3 Downswing

I'm not sure what is exactly viewed as a downswing, but I feel like I haven't been progressing much in my game these days. Granted I only have about 250 hours logged and am booking an extremely poor win rate of less than 1 bb/hr. I look at my charts compared to others and I am just going through massive roller coasters. One week I'll be up several hundred, and then lose several hundred the next week and never really make major progress in my win rate. Is there a glaring leak that is causing these swingy sessions?
Bostonbryan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-16-2018, 05:13 PM   #20789
Avaritia
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
 
Avaritia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Florida
Posts: 12,215
Re: 1/3 Downswing

Gonna get moved to the wr thread but:

-250 hours is nothing
-1bb/hr is winning and if you are winning you are ahead of 90% of live players
-you didnt say anything about your game so we cant identify leaks in your game
-try booking smaller wins/take breaks/play shorter sessions. I roller coaster alot also and this helps.
Avaritia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-16-2018, 05:34 PM   #20790
Joey913
old hand
 
Joey913's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Pre-flop
Posts: 1,300
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm taking more seriously this year tracking my poker results and know that I will have a near meaningless sample size. As someone with a full time job/family, my goal is 250 hours. My question is: if I believe I am a 10bb/hour long-term winner and play 250 hours, what would the 95% confidence interval be in terms of bb/hour? Would a negative number fall in that 95% CI?
Joey913 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-16-2018, 05:52 PM   #20791
Avaritia
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
 
Avaritia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Florida
Posts: 12,215
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Search this thread for your stdv input
Avaritia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-16-2018, 05:56 PM   #20792
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,371
Re: 1/3 Downswing

Basically, what Ava said. Especially 250 hours being nothing and being a winning player (even a modest one) nothing to sneeze at.

I recently had a ~200 hr breakeven stretch (digging out of my tied-for-worst-ever downswing) and yet have still managed a ~5 bb/hr winrate overall the last ~500 hours (which encompassed those ~200 hours). These little stretches (both good and bad) are meaningless results-wise.

Ginb4movedG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-16-2018, 05:58 PM   #20793
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913 View Post
I'm taking more seriously this year tracking my poker results and know that I will have a near meaningless sample size. As someone with a full time job/family, my goal is 250 hours. My question is: if I believe I am a 10bb/hour long-term winner and play 250 hours, what would the 95% confidence interval be in terms of bb/hour? Would a negative number fall in that 95% CI?
A NLHE player with a 60BB STD/hr would have a +- 7.6BB 95% confidence interval, so no, for a 10BB WR, 60BB STD/hr player, it wouldn't be negative.

There are a few important assumptions packed into that sentence though.
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-16-2018, 06:03 PM   #20794
Joey913
old hand
 
Joey913's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Pre-flop
Posts: 1,300
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^^ Thanks guys. I'm not very good on search to find exactly what I'm looking for, but what is a typical stdev? I would claim to be a TAG like I know most do (whether or not its actually true) and seem to have much more milder swings compared to what I hear others have, so I would imagine my stdev would be on the average/smaller side.
Joey913 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-16-2018, 06:18 PM   #20795
tdammon
journeyman
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 345
Re: 1/3 Downswing

What are you doing to improve your game? You're on here so I am assuming you post hand histories. Are you doing anything else to work on your game?
tdammon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-16-2018, 06:34 PM   #20796
Bostonbryan
centurion
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 139
Re: 1/3 Downswing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Gonna get moved to the wr thread but:

-250 hours is nothing
-1bb/hr is winning and if you are winning you are ahead of 90% of live players
-you didnt say anything about your game so we cant identify leaks in your game
-try booking smaller wins/take breaks/play shorter sessions. I roller coaster alot also and this helps.
So sessions like:
+350
+220
-700
-$600
+750
+450

are completely normal? Considering how this happens a decent amount of the time for me, or I end up booking smaller multiple wins coupled with a massive loss, isn't this something more alarming?
Bostonbryan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-16-2018, 06:38 PM   #20797
Bostonbryan
centurion
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 139
Re: 1/3 Downswing

Quote:
Originally Posted by tdammon View Post
What are you doing to improve your game? You're on here so I am assuming you post hand histories. Are you doing anything else to work on your game?
Trying to look more on 2+2, reading Ed Miller's The Course, studying on Red Chip Poker, etc. I think one of my biggest leaks is just calling off with the worst of it, going on tilt, and not making the right decisions in most spots. I do watch Andrew Neeme's vlogs a lot and see his perspective on calling down a decent size pot with top pair, getting in with speculative hands that probably wouldn't bode well in 1/3, etc. My last session I found myself getting into so many multiway pots and really couldn't do much. (I play in LA, and Temecula and I would say 90% of players are calling stations regardless of my raise size. And I find myself first into the pot raising and get 3-4 callers with like AKo, JJ and make poor decisions on later streets. Maybe I should be tightening up my UTG-UTG+2 range?) Just rambling, but these are the thoughts that are going on these days.
Bostonbryan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-16-2018, 06:57 PM   #20798
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,371
Re: 1/3 Downswing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bostonbryan View Post
So sessions like:
+350
+220
-700
-$600
+750
+450

are completely normal? Considering how this happens a decent amount of the time for me, or I end up booking smaller multiple wins coupled with a massive loss, isn't this something more alarming?
It's really hard to tell since you can easily go thru streaks where you win/lose a lot as well as streaks where you win/lose a little. In my last 8 sessions, I've only had 1 session where I won/lost more than 100bbs; but in the 8 sessions before that, I had 6.

It takes a long time to get a real feel for what is going on if you're simply looking at results. Poker is a pretty high variance game where a single pot here and there can make a *massive* difference to short term results.

GgoodluckG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-16-2018, 08:01 PM   #20799
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,603
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

SDEVs for winning players ITT have ranged from 55ish-100ishBBs/hour.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-16-2018, 08:13 PM   #20800
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ive been on 2 pretty brutal downswings in 3300 hours. I once lost AA 7 times in a row. I once saw the flop with a pocket pair 62 times in a row with out hitting a set and then the 63rd time I hit a set and got stacked. During those times I have thought to myself, why the hell dont I ever go on an unexplainable GOOD run like that?

Well, I now know what it feels like. Im now at 20 wins in a row. Im playing some really good poker but Im also hitting hands, hitting cards that I need, not getting my premium hands smashed..ect

20 days
Just under 81 hours
$13707
$169.50/hr
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:16 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive