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Old 02-07-2018, 02:52 PM   #20701
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Well .... yea. We rarely talk about the upper and lower limits of playing a stake, but we should.

If you've got $2.5k left then you've got a $2.5k roll. $2.5k < $10k --> No $2/5 for you.

The right way is to have move up and move down thresholds with some built in hysteresis. Maybe move up at 25BI for the higher stake, down at 20BI. Or 20/15. I know I've seen that talked about in a few books.

Being properly rolled is criminally underrated IMO.
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Old 02-07-2018, 06:45 PM   #20702
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Very valid point homer. The whole bankroll thing is something I have not thought of in a very long time. I have a cache of cash. If I were to run out I would simply obtain more. That being said of all my poker pals my DS is the worst that I know of. There is combined north of 30k hrs of live 2/5. So if you can really stomp the game your roll will grow quite quickly assuming you are not incinerating $ away from the tables. The problem is not a lot of dudes stomp. Many play fine when running well; but when things go wrong the wheels fall off (which is a major problem). I do not advocate a 10k roll. Just stating my experience

Squid, have you ever done a win rate breakdown by chunks of hours?

iirc your win rate is around 11bb/hr. I'd be really interested in the max deviation from your win rate over say 200 hours, 500 hours and 1k hours. Obviously you could do that in 2 ways...either just go Hr 1-200, 201-400 etc etc and see what it was or the other way which would be to look at peaks and troughs in your giraffe and see where the biggest swings would be up or down.

both would be interesting, albeit I don't want to ask you to do a load of work if it's tough?
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Old 02-07-2018, 07:17 PM   #20703
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

fw - Once I get my shyt outta storage and input that stuff I will be more than happy to ship the info to someone to do a full on breakdown. Right now I only have access to the little over 3k hrs of info and it isnt that interesting.

For now I can tell u that my worst 400 hours I won 14$ per hr. - and it was beyond painful
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Old 02-07-2018, 07:22 PM   #20704
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's pretty easy to take each session and pull the data from the previous X hours in something like Matlab (I do it as part of my analysis). I know there's a way to do it in Excel with a little bit of logic ... I just don't know off the top of my head how. I'd be willing to crunch some numbers for anyone that's interested in sharing some data.
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Old 02-07-2018, 10:19 PM   #20705
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My feels on moving up and bankroll:
Move up as soon as possible. Shot take aggressively. The rake below 2/5 is very hard to beat, you need to escape it.

I would take 2 80bb bullets to 2/5 when you have around $7500. Stand up if you hit $1000 or if you lose both. Then grind them back, because you'll lose both often. Repeat until you get a heater or hit a downswing at 1/3
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Old 02-07-2018, 11:03 PM   #20706
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Ranma4703 View Post
My feels on moving up and bankroll:
Move up as soon as possible. Shot take aggressively. The rake below 2/5 is very hard to beat, you need to escape it.

I would take 2 80bb bullets to 2/5 when you have around $7500. Stand up if you hit $1000 or if you lose both. Then grind them back, because you'll lose both often. Repeat until you get a heater or hit a downswing at 1/3
Or just play 1/3 with a full stack and auto top up which probably gives you a better hourly? You say rake at 1/3 is very hard to beat well rake at 2/5 with a short stack isn't much better.
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Old 02-07-2018, 11:16 PM   #20707
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
Or just play 1/3 with a full stack and auto top up which probably gives you a better hourly? You say rake at 1/3 is very hard to beat well rake at 2/5 with a short stack isn't much better.


the difference is the value of playing against the 2/5 lineups if the goal is to make that Hero’s permanent main game, it’s an investment
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Old 02-08-2018, 10:06 AM   #20708
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Come on, Man! Rake at 1/2 and 1/3 isnt hard to beat. The players in those games are for the most part really really bad. If you're struggling to beat the rake in those games, you just arent very good yet. If youre struggling to beat the rake at lower stakes, moving to 2/5 where there are better players is only going to get you crushed.
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Old 02-08-2018, 10:11 AM   #20709
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Come on, Man! Rake at 1/2 and 1/3 isnt hard to beat. The players in those games are for the most part really really bad. If you're struggling to beat the rake in those games, you just arent very good yet. If youre struggling to beat the rake at lower stakes, moving to 2/5 where there are better players is only going to get you crushed.
If we're talking normal USA#1 rake structures, then this is correct. Although, it depends on the game, as $15/hr might be a really good WR for a nitty, very short-stacked game. But achievable, sustainable winrates are higher than that for accomplished players in most USA#1 venues imo.
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Old 02-08-2018, 06:29 PM   #20710
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

First 16 games in 2018 all 2/5

11W, 5L

93.9 hours

$26.94 per hour

$2,530 profit

Obviously I'm happy to be winning so far but I feel like this is horrible. This game messes with my confidence so much.

I have a hard time recognizing if I'm playing bad or running bad at times (and vice versa).
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Old 02-09-2018, 04:44 AM   #20711
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What's horrible? The winrate? The numbers are obv meaningless over this sample. Confidence will come with hours played.
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Old 02-09-2018, 05:56 AM   #20712
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Are you playing mainly for fun or profit? If it's just a hobby I say you made money and did something enjoyable, so be happy. If for profit it still isn't terrible by any stretch. With so few hours its very hard to say that that is an accurate winrate and profit is profit. Keep on rollin'
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Old 02-09-2018, 01:07 PM   #20713
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I am playing for profit. Basically I am at a point in my life where I decided I was sick of doing things I didn't enjoy so I decided to take a few months off and play poker and travel a little bit.

I don't see poker as something I want to do to make a living but I am taking it serious for the first time in my life and trying to see how good I can get if I devote a lot of my attention to it.

I am starting to realize how small of a sample size this is by reading through older post in this thread. Last night I played for 5 hours and ran really hot for a $3400 profit.

So now my hourly is $63.59 over 98.9 hours.

I am going to try to not get overconfident and just keep playing my game. I may update every 50 hours or so but my goal I gave myself was to average 8 BB per hour over 500 hours.
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Old 02-09-2018, 01:28 PM   #20714
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

50 hour updates are extremely pointless please don't do that lol. as you can see, your sample size is pretty meaningless at this point.

create a pg&c if you want to track individual sessions
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Old 02-09-2018, 03:56 PM   #20715
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I don't understand how people have these massive winning or losing sessions. I play like a 15/12 internet TAG with an I'd say average 3 bet frequency. Not really that nitty. I never limp unless it's the SB or there's been like four limpers already but even then I'd rather raise. In the last 750 ish hours I've never had a session worse than -300 bb or better than +500 bb. Mainly play 1/2 and 1/3 with some 2/5 mixed in.
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Old 02-09-2018, 04:02 PM   #20716
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

how deep can/do you buy-in?
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Old 02-09-2018, 04:17 PM   #20717
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

In my regular game, 2-5, 1k cap buyin, I agree +$3.4k session is rare, but for me there are quit some $2k sessions either win or lose. Not long session tho, normally 5 hours. I don't know about others. Also I feel like it's quit easy to have a downswing way over $6k-8k lost, is this normal? As lots of posts saying in 2-5 game, 6-8k is quit a large downswing.
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Old 02-09-2018, 04:34 PM   #20718
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Always the max at 1/2 or 1/3 (300 to 500), 600 for 2/5. Not max buy in but still weird how in my 120 hours ish at 2/5 never had a session +/- 1k. Still playing the same game as 1/2. 1/3 except 3 betting more if anything and obviously defending lighter vs 3 bets which should lead to greater variance.
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Old 02-09-2018, 04:54 PM   #20719
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Losing 3 BI or winning 5 BI is a bit extreme for most people in a 5 hour session. 12 hour session sure though.

So I'd wonder what BI size and session duration Rat has too.

I don't think that a +- 4 BI volatility is out of the norm for just about anyone. You'd get that easily with 2 losing sessions in a row or two-three winners. So $4k at a $1k cap game makes sense. $8k is a little much, but not insane. Especially if you either tilt a little bit or get yourself into games where you're a dog and don't realize it.

I'd expect that the pushback you're getting about your results being weird is from people assuming a $500 BI instead.
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Old 02-09-2018, 05:01 PM   #20720
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
Always the max at 1/2 or 1/3 (300 to 500), 600 for 2/5. Not max buy in but still weird how in my 120 hours ish at 2/5 never had a session +/- 1k. Still playing the same game as 1/2. 1/3 except 3 betting more if anything and obviously defending lighter vs 3 bets which should lead to greater variance.
I have had several +$1000 games playing 1/2 and 1/3 as well. I really good at getting lucky though.
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Old 02-09-2018, 05:09 PM   #20721
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

ya @lrr do you play short sessions? that could have something to do with it also.

no +/- 200bb sessions definitely seems kinda weird (for me - it depends on your play style); but 120 hours is a very small sample so it could easily just be variance.

or maybe you're a nit
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Old 02-09-2018, 06:19 PM   #20722
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
ya @lrr do you play short sessions? that could have something to do with it also.

no +/- 200bb sessions definitely seems kinda weird (for me - it depends on your play style); but 120 hours is a very small sample so it could easily just be variance.

or maybe you're a nit
Playing 15/12 definitely has something to do with it IMO. That's super nitty. Also it 120 hours.

Also betting thinly, raising thinly, etc etc etc.
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:01 PM   #20723
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Playing 15/12 definitely has something to do with it IMO. That's super nitty. Also it 120 hours.

Also betting thinly, raising thinly, etc etc etc.
Giving action to the action players is important too. If they think you are a nit they won't want to play with you.

I don't know what 15/12 means so you probably want me in your game lol.
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:46 PM   #20724
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Giving action to the action players is important too. If they think you are a nit they won't want to play with you.

I don't know what 15/12 means so you probably want me in your game lol.
VPIP/PFR.

Considering starting to play Live on the side..

Would beating 10-25NL on WPN 9-max be close to the talent I'd face at 1/3 and 2/5?

My experience playing live is minimal, but I do know the game is about patience. Can find stretches of no playable spots for hours, but have to keep going.

If I played 1/3 to start, could I implement exploitative strategies similar to what I use for micros online?

What is a "Good/Solid" win rate per hour playing 1/3?


Thanks guys!
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Old 02-09-2018, 08:45 PM   #20725
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I don't know what 15/12 means so you probably want me in your game lol.
It means that he plays about 15% of hands, of which 12% he's coming in for a raise, so only 3% of the time is he just calling. That is very, very tight for live low stakes.
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