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Old 02-05-2018, 07:41 AM   #20676
nicname
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by NewClintEastwood View Post
So I'm planning a move to Vegas at the start of this summer to play poker professionally. Please don't bother with all the obligatory "dont do it!" and "nobody makes it" responses. I have results, I have a the bankroll for it, and I have the life situation to allow it. I would just like help/verification for 3 similar stats formulas to help me double check my budget and projected income for the next year. The more "plain english" you can make things the better. I saw a couple formulas I believe are correct, but the symbols in a few posts confuse me.

Formula 1) I have logs with hours and profits for all sessions. I want to generate confidence intervals on my hourly profit ie) I want to be 95% confident that my hourly is between X and Y. What is the correct way to calculate that?

Formula 2) I believe this is just a variant of formula 1. What is the formula to predict how "luck neutral" my results are likely to be. ie) If my results are 20bb/hr over 1000 hours, how likely is it that I could have achieved that result if my play "should have" earned me 15bb/hr.

Formula 3) Given a winrate of X over Y sessions with V variance, what are the chances that I would experience a winrate of Z if I played N more sessions?

Thanks in advance!

Also any recommendations of nice apartments (700-1200/month) within a 10 minute drive of the strip would be appreciated if anyone has some.
this is it I think.

2*(stdvhrsbb)/sqrthrsplayed

So for example.

You played 1000 hours and won 10BB/Hr cuz you been crushing/ runnin' good, and have a Standard Deviation of 73BB/Hr

2*(73) / sqrt of 1000

146 / 31.62

Means you have a 95% confidence interval of your true winrate thus far
being between

14.6BB/hr
and
5.4BB/hr

I'm not 100% certain this is correct, but that's how I understand it. Prob need some confirmation.

As for the other stuff, who knows? That's above my pay grade.

Last edited by nicname; 02-05-2018 at 07:48 AM.
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Old 02-05-2018, 09:14 AM   #20677
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Search ITT for posts by bip! with the word confidence in them.

Also, why Vegas? Better poker destinations out there, imo.
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Old 02-05-2018, 09:50 AM   #20678
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by nicname View Post
this is it I think.

2*(stdvhrsbb)/sqrthrsplayed

So for example.

You played 1000 hours and won 10BB/Hr cuz you been crushing/ runnin' good, and have a Standard Deviation of 73BB/Hr

2*(73) / sqrt of 1000

146 / 31.62

Means you have a 95% confidence interval of your true winrate thus far
being between

14.6BB/hr
and
5.4BB/hr

I'm not 100% certain this is correct, but that's how I understand it. Prob need some confirmation.

As for the other stuff, who knows? That's above my pay grade.
This is correct. Change the 2 to a 1 for 2/3 confidence, and change it to a 3 for 99% confidence.

There are some important caveats that are always worth mentioning, things like our results are not true independent trials, and as we accumulate the hours our edge may(will) change - making the inclusion of results from long ago, questionable.
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Old 02-05-2018, 02:53 PM   #20679
LordRiverRat
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You can get a nice apartment near the strip for 700? :O
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Old 02-06-2018, 10:54 AM   #20680
NewClintEastwood
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks for the responses guys! Much appreciated!
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Old 02-06-2018, 06:59 PM   #20681
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Any good bankroll management advice for someone properly rolled looking to play in some occasional tournaments? I prefer the bigger tournaments because they rake less as a percentage and have longer levels / structure, but am curious if there is a rule of thumb on on the max entree fee per tournament in relation to my br.
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Old 02-06-2018, 07:14 PM   #20682
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There are formulas out there for tournament grinders, but I haven't seen one for a mix of cash and tournament. Consider selling some of your action to get you in to the beatable structures (time and rake) without risking too much of your BR.
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Old 02-06-2018, 07:30 PM   #20683
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I don't think a mix matters to the BR calcs.

You need BR $10k to play MTT's of size X.

You need BR $10k to play $2/5 NLHE.

If you've got the $10k you can play either.
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Old 02-06-2018, 08:16 PM   #20684
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Should be able to chuck in field size, ABI, rake, estimated winrate (crushers = 100% ROI in liveaments) etc into the poker dope tourny variance calc to come up with the numbers you want.
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Old 02-06-2018, 08:24 PM   #20685
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

it's supposed to be 100 buy ins of your normal tournament size for a winning reg, but my guess would be that in the live setting approximately 0.1% of touring mtt pros/serous regs have this in their poker bankroll.
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Old 02-06-2018, 08:56 PM   #20686
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
it's supposed to be 100 buy ins of your normal tournament size for a winning reg, but my guess would be that in the live setting approximately 0.1% of touring mtt pros/serous regs have this in their poker bankroll.


yeah but how many tourneys do they play with 100% of themselves? not many imo
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Old 02-06-2018, 11:55 PM   #20687
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Also it's completely different if you're playing 100 man fields or 5k runner main events. Completely different. You can't reasonably apply 100BI BRM to both formats.
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Old 02-07-2018, 06:11 AM   #20688
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Tournament variance in livepoker is through the roof, even compared to how bad soulcrushing many people think it is.

I would bet that the amount of truly winning regs in live tournament poker is alot smaller than many people convince themself. The slow speed/small amount of hands,high rake compared to the buyin,travel/plane and food expences and more make them almost impossible to beat for a good winrate.

I strongly suspect that the "crushing" winning regs you see here and there is the group of players that find themself on a heater this time around. Then in 3 months its a new group of players, then after 6 months another group and so on.
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Old 02-07-2018, 06:50 AM   #20689
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

A tourney that costs 2.5% of your bankroll would get you in 40 tourneys - expenses.

A $300 tourney [$12K bankroll] x 30 = $9K & if my worst downswing would be an avg return of $100 per tourney, I'd still have $6k left - expenses. I think I'll stick with cash.
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Old 02-07-2018, 11:45 AM   #20690
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks for the feedback. Yes, as I hear more and more discussion, I'm sort of inclined to stick with cash games. I thought it would be fun to mix in some tournaments here and there, but where I am the rake is 20% which just seems really high to me ($360 tournament, $300 goes to prize pool) and I just dont' know if my expected winrate will be as high in a tournament as in cash....

As an aside, is $10k really considered an adequate br for 2/5? Especially if we are buying in for $1k, 10 buyins seems really short. I don't currently have 2/5 availability where I play, but I would want more than $10k to feel adequately rolled if I did.
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Old 02-07-2018, 11:54 AM   #20691
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

joey - there will always b back and forth about how much is needed for a 2/5 roll. Obv the better you are the less u guunna need. My giraff is in this thread somewhere. I have a pretty large sample of 2/5. My largest DS is somewhere in the neighborhood of 7.5K. Of all my poker buddies whose games I respect mine is the largest that I know of. This includes dudes like robfarha, cushlash, goose, etc.
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Old 02-07-2018, 12:14 PM   #20692
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I had assumed $500 BI for $2/5 (pretty standard for those stakes) for a BR of 20 BI. That's on the small side for a full time player IIRC, but it's at least in the right range. The point that I was making wasn't about the absolute size, just how to compare tournament and casb BR requirements simultaneously.
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Old 02-07-2018, 12:20 PM   #20693
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I started with 10k at $500 max buyin, so maybe you'd want 20k or buyin for $500.

I also went on a snap $5k downswing in week 1 which sucked by never really went on a bigger downswing in the last 1200 hours.
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Old 02-07-2018, 12:23 PM   #20694
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

you may not downswing for more than $10k but good luck playing on the last $2.5k after losing $7.5k
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Old 02-07-2018, 12:35 PM   #20695
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Very valid point homer. The whole bankroll thing is something I have not thought of in a very long time. I have a cache of cash. If I were to run out I would simply obtain more. That being said of all my poker pals my DS is the worst that I know of. There is combined north of 30k hrs of live 2/5. So if you can really stomp the game your roll will grow quite quickly assuming you are not incinerating $ away from the tables. The problem is not a lot of dudes stomp. Many play fine when running well; but when things go wrong the wheels fall off (which is a major problem). I do not advocate a 10k roll. Just stating my experience
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Old 02-07-2018, 12:40 PM   #20696
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Quote:
Originally Posted by homerdash View Post
you may not downswing for more than $10k but good luck playing on the last $2.5k after losing $7.5k

This and GL playing close to your A game and not playing scared money after almost torching through your 10 K roll.

I am not saying that you shoudnt shottake on 2/5 if youre sitting on a 10 K roll, but i will add that negative variance can hit you harder than you may think.

I witnessed some of the worst runbad ive ever seen for an extended amount of hours (around 200 hours of runbad), when my friend went on a big downswing when we was grinding in Vegas in November/December. Couple of examples:

-Stretch of being set over setted 7 times in a row, being on the wrong side every single time for full 100BB+ stacks.

- Stretch of bricking out 10 high equity combodraws in a row (12 outs or more). At least half of them for deep stacks.

-Running KK into AA repeatedly (like 5 times in 2 days) allin pre for stacks and never getting there

And so on and so on. Its not rocket science, but i will say that the money flies by at a very scary pace if something like this strikes you. Now i am not saying chances are big that youre gonna hit a downswing like this or that it is very likely to happen or something like that- i am just saying its wise and smart to keep a note back in your mind of how bad it really can get even in soft livepoker. Believe me, it keeps helping you stand on your feet and not lose your mind and being completely numb IF you should experience something like this.

Last edited by Petrucci; 02-07-2018 at 12:56 PM.
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Old 02-07-2018, 12:45 PM   #20697
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Also what Squid said. Being able to maintain your composure,not tilt and keep destroying the game even when youre running like dogshyt is an amazing quality that i have found that must crushers have in them- and i think it is one of the absolute key skills to have.

Same with just being able to walk away from the table if you for x amount of reasons aint able to play your best game. Very very few people have the discipline and self realizations to swallow that pride during a game- quit and call it a night.
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Old 02-07-2018, 01:27 PM   #20698
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by homerdash View Post
you may not downswing for more than $10k but good luck playing on the last $2.5k after losing $7.5k
This

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
I have a cache of cash. If I were to run out I would simply obtain more.
Is this in a rap song? I feel like this needs to be in a rap song
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Old 02-07-2018, 01:42 PM   #20699
ZuneIt
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Brandon Adams - "I once played in a PLO tourney at the Bellagio that 147 entries & the person who won had never played PLO & barely understood the rules." - from his book "Broke"
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Old 02-07-2018, 02:38 PM   #20700
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

As everybody's stated already, you're never going to play the same with your last 2.5k -- additionally, you shouldn't even play 2/5 at this point, as your roll is now 2.5k

When you flip a coin, no matter how many times you flip it your odds are 50/50. Well, it doesn't matter that we experienced a downswing and were at 10k previously, our odds of winning are still the same and we aren't "due" for a win, at this current time our BR stands at 2.5k and we should absolutely move down. Hence why I think this whole 10-20 buy in concept is complete bull****. You're never going to be able to play the same if you lose half those buyins and actually risk going busto.

I'd say its completely okay to start taking shots at that point like 1-2 times a week while continuing to grind your main game, but I'd want 30+ buyins to transition into a game full time. Hard to quantify the value of being over-rolled -- so much more you can do being able to push every edge available/experiment without having to worry about RoR considerations; plus you'll be able to really fight back against good regs instead of opting towards being weak-passive (which is not only common but possibly optimal for somebody whos just barely rolled).
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