[QUOTE=GatorXP;53398178][QUOTE=browni3141;53398121]Are you trying to make a living off of poker?
Quit PLO IMO.
It wasn't meant to bash you, but I would not play in a game where a 1200 hour breakeven stretch is reasonably likely to occur. After observing it it's more likely that it's "reasonably likely" than that it was just a freak occurrence.
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Originally Posted by Garick
Those saying what is impossible for winning players should probably run some distribution simulations. bip! had some great ones ITT, but the images are now dead.
I'm pretty sure a site like pokerdope would yield the exact same conclusions as the formulas I posted would. My formulas just don't give you those cute squiggly lines. They could be used to graph those confidence interval cones, though.
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Originally Posted by ZuneIt
What if I told you that a 2/5NL player, who was at MGM in MD the day it opened & played 18-28hr sessions, went home & slept & then back at it again, went 2 months without a single losing session & won in excess of $50K, would you believe that was an unreasonable win streak?
It depends. Is this guy a good player or just a degen? If he's playing close to every day and logged 1000+ hours over that period, then $50k might be pretty close to his EV, so it's not particularly remarkable. Even if he only played 500 hours it's not that remarkable. The impressive part is that he didn't have a single losing session. If we use the same SD/u = 10 as before, then it's roughly 77% chance to win a 25 hour session. (.77)^40 = about 1/35,000 if he played 40 25 hour sessions with SD/u = 10.
Even if this is accurate (it's probably not without knowing anything about his play or game conditions), it's pretty irrelevant. We shouldn't look to massive outliers to determine what could reasonably happen to an individual. It's like worrying about being struck by lightning every time you go outside because you heard about a guy who was struck 8 times over his lifetime.
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Bryan Devonshire's losing 18 months, could have been: won X during the 18 months & lost X+1% of X. He didn't lose every session. Also, he plays tournaments, so he doesn't put the hours into cash games that a 2/5NL cash grinder does.
As Avaritia said, Devonshire played in larger games than 2/5; he didn't play full-time, as he is mostly a tournament player. He didn't say how many hours of cash he played during the 18 months. So much arguing going on, that I wish I hadn't mentioned it.
I've been tracking my hourly since July 2014. I avg $15-$17 pr hr @ 1/2NL, depending on where the variance swing is & that includes a 7 month heater where I avg ~$31pr hr due to 2 big winning sessions. I've only had a few losing months & none were more than $1K. I've had several 100+ hr months averaging <$10pr hour. I avg 110 hours per month.
I do not play for a living, as I'm retired & worked all my life, so I have absolutely no pressure to win. I could not imagine trying to grind out a living at 2/5NL at my age.
@ Avaritia also, I was not talking about Devonshire, as he pretty clearly is playing in conditions different from someone who plays only 2|5. I was responding to this:
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Originally Posted by ZuneIt
That's like a 2/5NL player, with a $40K bankroll, having $38K left after playing poker for a year and a half.
Now Devonshire plays in a totally different kind of game & most likely doesn't play 100+ hours of cash a month, but still, I think it's possible.
SD/u = 10 was not pulled out of thin air. It is pretty close to what I've experienced and it is higher than what a lot of other people have experienced. If you don't like my choice then pick your own value.
Mathematical models are not perfect, but they are far superior than personal experience and anecdotes from outliers at representing what could happen to an individual in the future.