Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-09-2018, 12:31 PM   #20526
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
If you can pinpoint a few hands that were that detrimental to your wr, then it sounds like you were never properly rolled to begin with -- dunno if id call that running bad for a year.
I'm not convinced of this. It's possible your whole year might simply revolve around how you ran in big pots a lot more than you think.

For example, I had a horrendous year this year, only shipping about 17 BIs (my second worst rec year ever, slightly less than 3 bb/hr, assuming a BI is 100bb although technically I'm now BIing for less). In the recent thread regarding coping with bad beats I gave an example of how I was recently 1 outed in a set over set case; we "only" got in a little over a BI all-in on the flop, but with the dead money the swing overall for me was about ~2.5 BI, which is fairly significant given what I shipped overall this year. It doesn't take all that much "running bad" in your dozen big pots for the year. I started off the year with a thread regarding how I questioned whether playing with a maniac was worth it for a rec player given how the losses in a few hands could have a huge detrimental affect on overall winrate; if I recall, I believe I ran something like -3BI below expectation in just a few hands, or something like that, which again is a whopping percentage of what I ended up shipping for the year (and even what I would hope to ship for the year). I didn't do any all-in EV a la M / Mike Starr / etc., but I'm fairly convinced I ran pretty horrendous overall in the big pots I was in this year, which can have a pretty crushing affect on winrate over a lol rec yearly hours sample size.

But, admittedly, the more of a crusher you are with regards to the field then likely the less you'll feel this affect.

I think it was SABR who popped into the chat thread earlier this year and said his whole year was salvaged by a *single hand*. Course I'm guessing SABR plays in much bigger stacked games and can get himself into situations where there are stupid monstrous bbs on the line (which is unlikely in my much smaller stacked game).

Gmayyourunwellinbigpots,becauseitislikelytheonlyth ingthatmatters,imoG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 01-09-2018 at 01:00 PM.
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 12:38 PM   #20527
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Mike - it didn’t drive me back to a “regular” job. I planned on playing full-time for 1-2 years until I found the right opportunity and that’s exactly how long it lasted - 18 months.

As I’ve said numerous times, I never intended on making it a “career.” I am still playing as my primary source of income and it will likely be my primary source for another 12-18 months until I am more established in my new career.

Would it have been exponentially better if my stint as a full-time pro continued on the 45’ trajectory it was on? Absolutely. But I did what I had to do to preserve my bankroll, minimize the downside (while capping my upside) and continue to grind and earn. I’ve been able to supplement poker with some trading income in the market, and while it wasn’t a sexy 18 months it worked for me and with my bankroll intact and money socked away I’ll be ready to ride the next wave up if and when it ever decides to return.

Since I’ve started posting here there are very very few people, maybe no more than a handful, that have been a constant presence on the forum week in and week out consistently logging volume like I have. There is something to be said for the consistency required to keep playing week in and week out through good times and bad. Go back in 1-year increments and see the amount of people that seemingly disappear, likely due to bad streaks, BRM and not managing the variance.

Yah it didn’t go to plan but I’m still pretty damn proud of what I’ve been able to accomplish and the mental fortitude I’ve developed along the way. There’s no doubt in my mind I will be back to where I want to be eventually and I’ll be a stronger player for the experiences I’ve developed along the way.
Please don't take anything Ive said as an insult or any disrespect whatsoever. I have much respect for your journey.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 12:47 PM   #20528
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
That's a strawman.

The fact remains. Two players, one tag and one lag, with the same win rates. The lag by definition has a higher VPIP/PFR/3b%. He has higher aggression.

And, perhaps surprisingly, lower variance.
Over the long term Yes. But the LAGs long term could easily be much longer than the TAGs long term making it seem like statements like "you cant play enough hours in a lifetime to get your true win rate" to seem to be true.

Assume a LAG plays for stacks 5 times per session
The TAG plays for stacks on avg once per session

They both get it in as a 70/30 favorite. If it takes 1000 all ins before they both reach the expected EV then obviously the LAG will get their 5 times earlier. But if they both run equally bad for 10 sessions, the LAG is going could experience a downswing 5 times deeper (even though theoretically he should come out of it sooner).

Also, the LAG is going to be getting it in with less of an edge than the TAG. The TAG may be getting it in with an avg of 70% equity and the LAG may only avg 50% equity or less since he is pot committing himself with bigger bets and has to call more all ins when behind which can easily cause even deeper downswings.

So over the long term, the LAGs variance is probably lower because hes playing more pots but when he runs bad he will get crushed. At least thats the way my non stat expert mind interprets it.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 01:01 PM   #20529
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

<Mod edit: see below for corrected math>

Last edited by Garick; 01-09-2018 at 03:01 PM. Reason: Poster request
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 01:05 PM   #20530
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Note- I didn't attempt to randomize the 10% component, just assumed that Player 3's game "gets good" exactly 10% of the time.
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 01:09 PM   #20531
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I can't edit my last comment regarding running-good-in-big-hands from above, but I also don't want to just leave it hiliting the negative part of things. Last year when I shipped ~6.6 bbs/hr (at the time my second worst yearly result but also I thought perhaps a lot more in line with what was now possible in my changing poker environment) I mentioned how ~80% of my profits for the year came in just ~10% of my sessions (or something like that). I can't recall those sessions, but was a large part of those sessions simply running good (or not running bad) in large pots? Honestly wouldn't surprise me at all if that was the case.

GcluelessrunninggoodinbigpotsnoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 01:11 PM   #20532
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thomas Bayes would tell us that a player who won $75,000 over his last 4000 hours and thinks he's Player 3 above, is very likely incorrect and actually has a significantly lower expectation.

But the player in question might be right.
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 01:35 PM   #20533
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sure, but if Bayes can *see* the players in the table splashing around like drunken donkeys, he might have a different opinion.

While it's hard to get statistics on a game, we can (sometimes) get an extremely fast feel for the kind of action we'll have at a table when we sit down.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 01:37 PM   #20534
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sai1b0ats View Post
Consider 3 sample players, all 3 are playing 2-5, with a long term WR = 8BB or $40 per hour.

Player 1 always sits in a game where his WR is $40/hr and his StnDev is 55BB per hour.

Player 2 always sits in a game where his WR is $40/hr and his StnDev is 75BB per hour.

Player 3 - 90% of the time he sits in a game where his WR is $30/hr and his Stn Dev is 75BB per hour, and 10% of the time he sits in an awesome high variance game where his WR is $130/hr and his Stn Dev is 150BB per hour.

So, all 3 players have an expectation of $160,000 after 4000 hours. What are their run-bad exposures over a 4000 hour sample?

PLAYER 1:
1 in 10 will win less than $137,500
1 in 100 will win less than $119,500
1 in 1000 will win less than $106,000

PLAYER 2:
1 in 10 will win less than $129,500
1 in 100 will win less than $105,000
1 in 1000 will win less than $87,000

PLAYER 3:
1 in 10 will win less than $89,500
1 in 100 will win less than $65,000
1 in 1000 will win less than $47,000

(I welcome any checking of the math, of course)
Assuming this is true...what point does it prove?
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 01:38 PM   #20535
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

MODS - Can somebody delete my poast (#20529), I fukked up the math.
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 01:41 PM   #20536
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

CORRECTED THE MATH (HOPEFULLY)

Consider 3 sample players, all 3 are playing 2-5, with a long term WR = 8BB or $40 per hour.

Player 1 always sits in a game where his WR is $40/hr and his StnDev is 55BB per hour.

Player 2 always sits in a game where his WR is $40/hr and his StnDev is 75BB per hour.

Player 3 - 90% of the time he sits in a game where his WR is $30/hr and his Stn Dev is 75BB per hour, and 10% of the time he sits in an awesome high variance game where his WR is $130/hr and his Stn Dev is 150BB per hour.

So, all 3 players have an expectation of $160,000 after 4000 hours. What are their run-bad exposures over a 4000 hour sample?

PLAYER 1:
1 in 10 will win less than $137,500
1 in 100 will win less than $119,500
1 in 1000 will win less than $106,000

PLAYER 2:
1 in 10 will win less than $129,500
1 in 100 will win less than $105,000
1 in 1000 will win less than $87,000

PLAYER 3:
1 in 10 will win less than $125,500
1 in 100 will win less than $97,000
1 in 1000 will win less than $77,000

(I welcome any checking of the math, of course)
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 01:57 PM   #20537
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Assuming this is true...what point does it prove?
The poast where I screwed up showed that running well in big pots is super important, while the corrected version shows that the effect of big pots is a bit significant, but probably overestimated by most in the long term.

Not proving anything. I've seen claims about how important running good in key situations is important and how low variance play is so much greater than high variance play. I prefer to analyze claims like those by trying to put numbers to them. Thought I'd share what I found.

All in all, I mostly agree with squid and others who say ruminations about StnDev aren't very productive. But for everyone who thinks they are running bad, or trying to make life decisions regarding how poker fits into their income plans, I think trying to understand the variance component can be worthwhile. Also, knowing the numbers better helps me in limiting entitlement tilt or whatever else it's called these days.
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 01:58 PM   #20538
bwslim69
I'm a Diva, Bruh
 
bwslim69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: TPS reports
Posts: 24,037
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
Are you saying discussion of stdev is unimportant? It's probably THE most important thing when it comes to winning long term?
If you equate poker to a financial investment you will realize that this is factually untrue. STD Dev of differing investments does not mean one investment is "better" or "worse" by itself.

I will grant that if there are 2 investments with equal expected returns (win rate if you will) we would prefer a reduced std dev if possible.

But just saying reducing std dev is the most important thing doesn't make any sense. I can invest in 30 day Treasury certificates that have virtually no STD Dev but those aren't maximizing returns (win rate)
bwslim69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 03:51 PM   #20539
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Welp, now that I've written this little calculator......

Scenario, you're a winning 1-3 rec with a steady $21/hr WR and 55BB/hr StDv, you play 600 hours a year. 5% of your year the game goes off the hook with a straddle, deep, and heavy action. You like to book solid winning years, so you question whether the extra EV is worth the risk. Do you play those 30 hours in a wild game or table change to protect your consistent stream of fun money? If we assume in the wild game you have a $48/hr WR and 80Straddles/hr StDv, how does this affect your results?

Regular Game for 600 hours
EV= $12,600
60%confidence interval = $9,200 - $16,000
90%confidence interval = $6,000 - $19,200
99%confidence interval = $2,200 - $23,000

YOLO for 30 hours + Regular Game for 570 hours
EV = $13,410
60%confidence interval = $9,400 - $17,400
90%confidence interval = $5,600 - $21,200
99%confidence interval = $1,200 - $25,600
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 04:00 PM   #20540
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So does that mean in the scarier game you're 99% sure that for the year we'll win somewhere between 0.7 bb/hr and 14.2 bb/hr?

GsothistellsmeIshould...um,whatdoesthistellmeIshou lddo?G
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 04:02 PM   #20541
browni3141
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 5,114
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Still not getting it. Stndev is an effect, not a cause.

And there is nothing this kid could do to be better at poker, besides quitting when tired/tilted, which is on the scale of things you should be focusing on, is 20-30 knotches above stdv
It could be because we're both trying to have conversations with other people involved who may not be arguing the same things, but I think you are not getting it. I hardly care about SD when I am thinking about how I play the game. I care about SD when I am deciding whether or not to play the game at all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Higher aggression (the word should probably be "better" aggression) reduces variance.

Mpethy (v/good poster/mod who did database analysis) posted on this a great deal in this thread and in chat.
Link to post?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
That's a strawman.

The fact remains. Two players, one tag and one lag, with the same win rates. The lag by definition has a higher VPIP/PFR/3b%. He has higher aggression.

And, perhaps surprisingly, lower variance.
This may be true but is not necessarily true. There are cases where aggression (even "good" aggression) may either lower variance or raise it. For example, frequently ending hands on earlier streets may decrease variance, while things like neutral EV pre-flop opens, all other strategy the same, will increase variance.

All other strategy the same, I'm pretty sure VPIPing more necessarily increases variance. The LAG would have to be playing differently on the hands both he and the TAG are VPIPing, which is the case for players that are conscious of their overall strategy; however, by my understanding of the terms' meanings there is nothing necessarily different about a LAG's vs. TAG's play style beyond pre-flop.

This is because folding has an EV of 0 on that street which is always equal to the result of 0, so the variance is also 0.
browni3141 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 04:06 PM   #20542
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
So does that mean in the scarier game you're 99% sure that for the year we'll win somewhere between 0.7 bb/hr and 14.2 bb/hr?

GsothistellsmeIshould...um,whatdoesthistellmeIshou lddo?G
correct, play it safe all year, 99% sure you'll win between 1.2 bb/hr and 12.8 bb/r.
play it safe 570 hours, YOLO 30 hours, 99% sure you'll win between 0.7 bb/hr and 14.2 bb/hr

(under the given assumptions, obv)
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 04:06 PM   #20543
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
GsothistellsmeIshould...um,whatdoesthistellmeIshou lddo?G
you can lead a GG to water....
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 04:26 PM   #20544
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sai1b0ats View Post
you can lead a GG to water....
Ok, fair enough; the comparisons show not much difference in the min/max between the two.

However, the real take away is the min/max overall is insane (the whole point of the recent variance talk). Given these mins/maxs (the min where you are just barely breakeven, the max where you are an absolute stone cold crusher), it's pretty clear everyone should either (a) add two more part time jobs on top of current job and never play poker again vs (b) quit their current job and play poker full time and (c) something in between. (i.e. pray you run well, it's likely the only thing that matters)

Gnothatingatall,justsayin'G

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 01-09-2018 at 04:32 PM.
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 04:30 PM   #20545
Avaritia
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
 
Avaritia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Florida
Posts: 12,215
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Browni, the mpethy posts were over time, and scattered about. Someone better at search than me would have to link them.

Lags and tags are playing their hands differently post flop. Notably bc lags have a wider range. They check more. They bet smaller. Etc.

You are on the right track though in realizing it has to do with non-showdown winnings. That is why a good lag can have lower variance than a good tag.

To be clear, I am talking about variance from expected win rate. That is not the same as variance from expected value. This has always confused me when talking about variance wrt poker.
Avaritia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 04:37 PM   #20546
Avaritia
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
 
Avaritia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Florida
Posts: 12,215
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Here's a rio article. Focus is in mtts but Phil's op and Ben Tollerene's first paragrah in his response are what mpethy was saying years ago. Still heavily debated as you can see.

http://www.runitonce.com/mtt/theory-variance-vs-style/
Avaritia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 04:53 PM   #20547
sai1b0ats
veteran
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,463
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Ok, fair enough; the comparisons show not much difference in the min/max between the two.

However, the real take away is the min/max overall is insane (the whole point of the recent variance talk). Given these mins/maxs (the min where you are just barely breakeven, the max where you are an absolute stone cold crusher), it's pretty clear everyone should either (a) add two more part time jobs on top of current job and never play poker again vs (b) quit their current job and play poker full time and (c) something in between. (i.e. pray you run well, it's likely the only thing that matters)

Gnothatingatall,justsayin'G
The water comment was intended as a light needle, I wasn't trying to be overly negative.

I don't draw the same conclusion that you do though.

Same scenario, but now we're talking about a guy whose a full-time player for 8 years :

hourly WR in ()

Regular Game for 16000 hours
EV= $336,000
60%confidence interval = $318,400 - $353,600 ($19.90 - $22.10)
90%confidence interval = $301,600 - $370,400 ($18.85 - $23.15)
99%confidence interval = $282,400 - $389,600 ($17.65 - $24.35)

YOLO for 800 hours + Regular Game for 15200 hours
EV = $357,600
60%confidence interval = $337,000 - $378,200 ($21.06 - $23.64)
90%confidence interval = $317,400 - $397,800 ($19.84 - $24.86)
99%confidence interval = $294,800 - $420,600 ($18.41 - $26.29)
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 09:04 PM   #20548
browni3141
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 5,114
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
To be clear, I am talking about variance from expected win rate. That is not the same as variance from expected value. This has always confused me when talking about variance wrt poker.
I was thinking up a reply, but I realized I made an assumption on what you meant here. Can you explain for me to be sure?
browni3141 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 11:02 PM   #20549
Avaritia
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
 
Avaritia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Florida
Posts: 12,215
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

heh, you’re going to catch me. I am not good at this and am paraphrasing from memory how I understand it (eek)

I think I should have said there are 2 expected values. There is an expected value hand vs hand and there is an expected win rate. Stdev bb/100 refers to win rate. Expected value hand for hand influences variance in expected win rate but it’s not the entire picture bc non showdown plays a part in wr. I think we misuse the term variance when we refer to AA losing to JJ but we use it correctly when we refer to winning/losing 100bbs in 100 hands.

I’m very close to approaching no f**king clue of what I’m talking about though. I used to know a lot more about this when it was fresh in my mind from college and when bright minds posted here often and I was truly interested in solving poker. (Most of that has died for me)

I’ve since learned to work on mental game, study common high level spots, and just shoot the ball
Avaritia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2018, 12:07 AM   #20550
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,601
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
by my understanding of the terms' meanings there is nothing necessarily different about a LAG's vs. TAG's play style beyond pre-flop.
So this is not a strat thread, and I therefore don't want to go too far down this rabbit whole, but this understanding is incorrect. LAGs depend more on non-showdown winnings and when played back at often don't have a hand worth showing down.

The reason that this matters to variance is that LAGs are all-in with cards to come less often, and therefore are less frequently at the mercy of the deck.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:12 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive