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 01-08-2018, 12:31 PM #20476 Angrist Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 3,883 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Standard deviation is calculated from your winrate statistics. So that itself is subject to variance and sample size effects too.
01-08-2018, 12:39 PM   #20477
sai1b0ats
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Angrist Standard deviation is calculated from your winrate statistics. So that itself is subject to variance and sample size effects too.
StnDev per hour converges relatively quickly.

 01-08-2018, 01:19 PM #20478 Angrist Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 3,883 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances How quickly? In sessions or in hours?
01-08-2018, 01:46 PM   #20479
johnnyBuz
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by meale More than 1000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Great. Let me be the first to congratulate you on your very first half-year anniversary birthday!!!

I'll leave you with some reading material from a guy with 17,000 - 20,000 hours that you can choose to disregard as blasphemy if you'd like.

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:

01-08-2018, 02:03 PM   #20480
sai1b0ats
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Angrist How quickly? In sessions or in hours?
Try chopping your hours into various block sizes and see how similar your sample StnDev is between the blocks when compared to sample winrate between the blocks. Try 500, 200, etc. My math degree is too rusty to throw down the formulas.

 01-08-2018, 02:27 PM #20481 Angrist Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 3,883 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Please. Eli Manning is the GOAT. Only man to beat Tom Brady in a Super Bowl. Twice. So clearly DGAF is just a high variance fish that sucks at poker. /s Although that is one of the more perfect descriptions of The Abyss I've read. I get this: If I calculate standard deviation over time. Looks like it "converges" quickly at first, then it doesn't. Then there's a decent amount of difference in 500 hour samples (although not that much "noise"). bip! would know off the top of his head.
 01-08-2018, 03:17 PM #20482 gobbledygeek Poet Laureate of LLSNL   Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 33,367 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Nice post by Johnny regarding variance, imo. We don't always see eye-to-eye in some of the strat threads, but I think we're a lot more on the same page regarding this issue. Gourlifetimeamountoflivehandswillbealolpatheticsam plesize,imoG
01-08-2018, 06:54 PM   #20483
sai1b0ats
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Angrist Please. Eli Manning is the GOAT. Only man to beat Tom Brady in a Super Bowl. Twice. So clearly DGAF is just a high variance fish that sucks at poker. /s Although that is one of the more perfect descriptions of The Abyss I've read. I get this: If I calculate standard deviation over time. Looks like it "converges" quickly at first, then it doesn't. Then there's a decent amount of difference in 500 hour samples (although not that much "noise"). bip! would know off the top of his head.
I'm not sure how to calculate it exactly mathematically, so I ran some simulations to get a very close estimate. Each bracket shows the percent chance of a random sample being within 2.5BB, 5BB, 7.5BB, 10BB, 12.5BB, 15BB of actual expectation.

SD per HR = 60BB and 100 Hour Random Sample:
WR - [32, 59, 79, 90, 96, 99]
SD - [45, 76, 92, 98, 100, 100]

SD per HR = 60BB and 500 Hour Random Sample:
WR - [64, 93, 99, 100, 100, 100]
SD - [81, 99, 100, 100, 100, 100]

SD per HR = 80BB and 100 Hour Random Sample:
WR - [25, 47, 66, 79, 89, 94]
SD - [34, 62, 81, 92, 97, 99]

SD per HR = 80BB and 500 Hour Random Sample:
WR - [49, 83, 96, 99, 100, 100]
SD - [68, 95, 99, 100, 100, 100]

how to read those results - for example, if we have a 5BB WR expectation and a true SD per hour of 60BB and we take a random sample of 100 hours of our results, there is about a 59% chance that the random sample would show a winrate between 0BB-10BB and about a 76% chance that the random sample would show a SD per hour of 55BB-65BB.

i've put my Python3 code into a spoiler as pro programmers may wish to avert their eyes. I welcome any input on methodology as I'm not up on any current theories of modelling live play. (for example - if 5% of the time, our table conditions are "awesome" but with much higher variance, how should/could we model that)

Spoiler:

01-08-2018, 07:13 PM   #20484
MikeStarr
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by sai1b0ats what's your StnDev per hour?
53.8BB/hr

01-08-2018, 07:34 PM   #20485
johnnyBuz
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by squid face hellova poast JB - if you ever make it to florida would love to buy you a beer - much respect
Thanks squid - missed this first time thru. Not sure if I’ll be down there anytime soon, but as a fan of the extreme sports (mostly skiing and skydiving) I’ll take you up on that offer to trade some stories.

01-08-2018, 08:04 PM   #20486
meale
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by johnnyBuz Great. Let me be the first to congratulate you on your very first half-year anniversary birthday!!! I'll leave you with some reading material from a guy with 17,000 - 20,000 hours that you can choose to disregard as blasphemy if you'd like.
Quote:
 I got it all in on the flop the other day (single raised multiway pot, I called on the button pre) with 8h6h vs 9c8d on 9s7h5s and I got felted.
Fold pre

 01-08-2018, 08:29 PM #20488 dayurou newbie   Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 25 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances so here are my 2017 results. I was a blackjack pro but games became unplayable, so got my hands on live poker late 2015, was a losing player in first 12 months but decided that poker intrigues me so much that im going to play through whatever is ahead. became breakeven for a couple of months towards the end of 2016, did some studying, and here are my 2017 results. I must have one of the weirdest winrate in terms of 1/2 and 2/5. Here in my local casino there s a huge difference between 1/2 and 2/5, 2/5 is usually the highest stake running and therefore where all the pros are (but games only run when there are spots). My low winrate at 1/2 is simply because I bluff way too much (most of my 1/2 volume was in the first half of the year, I felt that I improved massive since), and also ran amazingly bad in some big pots. But on the other hand I was running insane at 2/5. Obviously had a good year ŁŁŁ wise but not sure how much of this is sustainable. would be glad if i can hit even half of my last year's 2/5 winrate in 2018.
01-08-2018, 08:33 PM   #20489
Petrucci
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by meale Fold pre
Look meale, i follow your thread in the pokergoals underforum- and you seems like a smart well reflected guy with lots of good thought about poker/life.

Are you trolling regarding the variance post from DGAF that Johnny quoted? Like "fold pre", is that your only response when you read that kind of stuff from a guy who have played close to 20 000 hours of livepoker and is a well known high stakes pro for years?

01-08-2018, 08:39 PM   #20490
meale
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Petrucci Look meale, i follow your thread in the pokergoals underforum- and you seems like a smart well reflected guy with lots of good thought about poker/life. Are you trolling regarding the variance post from DGAF that Johnny quoted? Like "fold pre", is that your only response when you read that kind of stuff from a guy who have played close to 20 000 hours of livepoker and is a well known high stakes pro for years?
Yes, I was being facetious.

01-08-2018, 09:12 PM   #20491
ZuneIt
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by MikeStarr 53.8BB/hr
Mike, you say that is your standard deviation, but what session logger are you using? All the ones I've seen show it in BBs & it doesn't say per hr, so I don't know if that's per session or what.

My avg win is 91.34BB & avg loss is 91.12BB but I've won 65.75% of my sessions. Since the avg session was probably 4.5hrs over the last 13 months, I've played ~357 sessions. This is probable, because I live 15 miles from casino, will play during day & come back at night quite often. This is all 1/2NL, as I keep other limits on another session logger.

357 sessions * .6575 wins * 91.34BBs = + \$21,440
357 sessions * .3425 losses * 91.12BBs = \$11,141.

That shows me with a net profit of about \$10.3K but I won over \$20K. So either my avg session is shorter, or, I'm not considering something else.

I only had 1 losing month in the last 13 & that was for \$14.00. I had 6 months that were under \$12.00 per hr & 3 of those were under \$5.00 per hour. However, I've had 6 months that were over \$20 per hr & every month [except 1] was over 100 hours.

Now here's a small sample: Since 1Dec2017, I've played 162.5 hrs, won 77.27% of my sessions & am averaging \$33 per hr playing 1/2NL.

I have had these kind of heaters in the past & they are always followed up with a cold spell. Almost every time I hit that cold spell I weather it better than the times before. For instance, in 2016 I had more losing months & that was primarily due to going on entitlement tilt during those cold spells. Last year I stayed more mentally on point & grinded my way through the spell.

I'm better prepared for the next one [mentally] than ever before....my Shrink gave me some great meds!

I couldn't imagine having to play poker for a living.

01-08-2018, 09:12 PM   #20492
Gillingham

Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 791
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dayurou so here are my 2017 results.
Wow great results dayurou!
Where do you play?
I started playing some 1/2 live and was doing really well pretty much not bluffing at all- for some reason I changed and started bluffing a lot and my results went terrible, small sample but would you suggest hardly bluffing at 1/2?
Take it your bluffing works at 2/5?

Good luck for 2018 will be interesting to see how your 2/5 winrate changes

01-08-2018, 09:42 PM   #20493
dayurou
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Join Date: Jan 2017
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Gillingham Wow great results dayurou! Where do you play? I started playing some 1/2 live and was doing really well pretty much not bluffing at all- for some reason I changed and started bluffing a lot and my results went terrible, small sample but would you suggest hardly bluffing at 1/2? Take it your bluffing works at 2/5? Good luck for 2018 will be interesting to see how your 2/5 winrate changes
i play in London. I would suggest in general never to bluff in 1/2, unless you are playing exploitatively against a very specific type of villain. ive learned that people at 1/2 care much less about your image than you think. i.e. they are almost as likely to pay you off if you've been quiet all session vs you showing the bluffs. I adopt a much more balanced approach at 2/5 to not get exploited by fellow pros. I still play exploitatively vs fishes in 2/5. another thing to add in 1/2 is that i stopped 3 betting wide especially vs people who have a wide limping range but suddenly decide to open. I used to do that a lot because I believed in my skill edge post flop and often how easy people are to read and play against in 1/2 especially when you are in position. but i stopped doing that with the bottom of my 3b range as it is simply not worth it vs their opening range. it comes down to the basic 101 of 'whats his range' but I didnt think I gave enough thought into that when I was losing at 1/2.

to add to the above, I used to sometimes simply want to outplay a fish so much to the extent that i start assigning ridiculous hands to their range just to justify my call downs. big mistake. they snap fold their blocker type hands on the river 99% of the time, and turn them into bluffs 1% of the time without realising what they are doing. tl:dr, fold to them, dont bluff them, dont go into battles with them.

Last edited by dayurou; 01-08-2018 at 09:49 PM.

01-08-2018, 10:06 PM   #20494
Gillingham

Join Date: Jan 2013
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by dayurou i play in London. I would suggest in general never to bluff in 1/2, unless you are playing exploitatively against a very specific type of villain. ive learned that people at 1/2 care much less about your image than you think. i.e. they are almost as likely to pay you off if you've been quiet all session vs you showing the bluffs. I adopt a much more balanced approach at 2/5 to not get exploited by fellow pros. I still play exploitatively vs fishes in 2/5. another thing to add in 1/2 is that i stopped 3 betting wide especially vs people who have a wide limping range but suddenly decide to open. I used to do that a lot because I believed in my skill edge post flop and often how easy people are to read and play against in 1/2 especially when you are in position. but i stopped doing that with the bottom of my 3b range as it is simply not worth it vs their opening range. it comes down to the basic 101 of 'whats his range' but I didnt think I gave enough thought into that when I was losing at 1/2. to add to the above, I used to sometimes simply want to outplay a fish so much to the extent that i start assigning ridiculous hands to their range just to justify my call downs. big mistake. they snap fold their blocker type hands on the river 99% of the time, and turn them into bluffs 1% of the time without realising what they are doing. tl:dr, fold to them, dont bluff them, dont go into battles with them.
When I play I play in London too

Ah nice point about 3betting hadn't thought of that a great deal but seems a very good point if they are going from limping to raising. Impressive how you seem to be crushing poker after just a couple of years.

With me it's the opposite I don't really care about outplaying the fish as they do some daft things..... It's the nits or good players I end up trying to outplay and get myself in trouble at the moment.

Again when I first started I would just pretty much give nits/good players no action whatsoever and concentrate on playing the fish which was working well but I changed and have been losing a lot to them recently....... Find them frustrating to play against (nits)

01-08-2018, 10:47 PM   #20495
MikeStarr
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by ZuneIt Mike, you say that is your standard deviation, but what session logger are you using? All the ones I've seen show it in BBs & it doesn't say per hr, so I don't know if that's per session or what. My avg win is 91.34BB & avg loss is 91.12BB but I've won 65.75% of my sessions. Since the avg session was probably 4.5hrs over the last 13 months, I've played ~357 sessions. This is probable, because I live 15 miles from casino, will play during day & come back at night quite often. This is all 1/2NL, as I keep other limits on another session logger. 357 sessions * .6575 wins * 91.34BBs = + \$21,440 357 sessions * .3425 losses * 91.12BBs = \$11,141. That shows me with a net profit of about \$10.3K but I won over \$20K. So either my avg session is shorter, or, I'm not considering something else. I only had 1 losing month in the last 13 & that was for \$14.00. I had 6 months that were under \$12.00 per hr & 3 of those were under \$5.00 per hour. However, I've had 6 months that were over \$20 per hr & every month [except 1] was over 100 hours. Now here's a small sample: Since 1Dec2017, I've played 162.5 hrs, won 77.27% of my sessions & am averaging \$33 per hr playing 1/2NL. I have had these kind of heaters in the past & they are always followed up with a cold spell. Almost every time I hit that cold spell I weather it better than the times before. For instance, in 2016 I had more losing months & that was primarily due to going on entitlement tilt during those cold spells. Last year I stayed more mentally on point & grinded my way through the spell. I'm better prepared for the next one [mentally] than ever before....my Shrink gave me some great meds! I couldn't imagine having to play poker for a living.
I use the "Run Good" app. I dont know what you mean. The App shows the StnDev per hour and per session and both are listed in \$\$/hr. I converted it to BB/hr myself.

The App shows \$269/hr playing 2/5 which is 53.8BB/hr.
My per session StnDev is \$514 or 101BBs per session.

01-08-2018, 10:53 PM   #20496
meale
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by MikeStarr I use the "Run Good" app. I dont know what you mean. The App shows the StnDev per hour and per session and both are listed in \$\$/hr. I converted it to BB/hr myself. The App shows \$269/hr playing 2/5 which is 53.8BB/hr. My per session StnDev is \$514 or 101BBs per session.
I'm trying to consolidate our two numbers... Mine just says "Std. Dev. 206.331bb", are you on average playing sessions half as long as me or?

 01-08-2018, 11:00 PM #20497 ZuneIt veteran   Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Where I can find out how2play poker Posts: 2,160 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances @MikeStarr: Got it. I thought the \$514 was \$51.40 My Std. Dev. is 116.69BBs which is close to yours.
 01-08-2018, 11:05 PM #20498 Avaritia Confirmed 2500 hour haver     Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: Florida Posts: 12,215 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances I wonder if LeBron knows how many little bumps are on a regulation basketball.
01-08-2018, 11:07 PM   #20499
meale
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Avaritia I wonder if LeBron knows how many little bumps are on a regulation basketball.
Are you saying discussion of stdev is unimportant? It's probably THE most important thing when it comes to winning long term?

01-08-2018, 11:12 PM   #20500
sai1b0ats
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Avaritia I wonder if LeBron knows how many little bumps are on a regulation basketball.
ha! you make fun, but this stuff can be important. Should I play on Mondays? Why not turn pro? Should I move up?

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