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Old 01-08-2018, 12:31 PM   #20476
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Standard deviation is calculated from your winrate statistics. So that itself is subject to variance and sample size effects too.
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Old 01-08-2018, 12:39 PM   #20477
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Standard deviation is calculated from your winrate statistics. So that itself is subject to variance and sample size effects too.
StnDev per hour converges relatively quickly.
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Old 01-08-2018, 01:19 PM   #20478
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How quickly? In sessions or in hours?
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Old 01-08-2018, 01:46 PM   #20479
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Originally Posted by meale View Post
More than 1000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Great. Let me be the first to congratulate you on your very first half-year anniversary birthday!!!

I'll leave you with some reading material from a guy with 17,000 - 20,000 hours that you can choose to disregard as blasphemy if you'd like.

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Originally Posted by DGAF View Post
For a second I thought you were someone else trolling me... Anyways, 15k+ hours in now (), here is one thing I think I know (which may be of some use to you):

9-handed 2-blind (and nothing else) live no limit is --maybe it became this way over recent years as the game has evolved, or maybe it’s always been this way and I just couldn’t see it when I was green/ran hot af myself-- a huge variance festival wherein ALL the biggest winners at EVERY casino are simply on massive heaters.

Almost all of today’s “top (full ring) players” glide into their local rooms with a confidence (often a smugness) that no person with a trained eye wrt variance could ever have, and they just bink, bink, bink, fade, fade, fade, cooler, cooler, cooler all over the place, amassing chips (and fan boys) at a mind blowing rate…

Some of their opponents who play ~ as well as they do (often signif better) aren’t even winning, and they haven’t been/won’t be for a while---> variance paths can remain the same for a VERY long time (mainly because “time” in live poker is measured in hours, days, weeks, months, years- not in actual # of hands dealt- which we can just never get a true sample of no matter how long we play)…

And then of course variance paths can/will change instantly as well. While most of the players running far below expectation won’t stick it out long enough/they will be beaten into submission too much to ever bask in their own heater glory when/if it comes (***there is no guarantee at all you will ever run even close to as hot as the people blazing away at your respective casinos- they are outliers, but in all likelihood you will run at least “good” for a while if you keep plugging away), most of the people currently scooping up 300-500 bbs a day (“easy”) will in fact stick it out long enough to see at least a signif dip (if not a complete plummet) in their bink/fade/cooler frequencies...

And sadly, for the rest of their careers/time in live poker, almost all ^^^ people will be left sitting at the table with sad looks on their faces, chasing their long lost heaters (never understanding/acknowledging how anomalous they were) and complaining to anyone who will (pretend to) listen about “how bad (they) run.” They will either earn A LOT less money moving forward than they have grown accustomed to (if they are good and tough and work hard/don’t run outlier bad they can still win over time obv), or they will just waste away at breakeven or worse.

***Write down the 3 biggest full ring hotshots/most highly regarded players at your casino today. Compare that list to the list of 3 years ago (ask a floor man or something). And then in another 3 years compare both lists to the new list. Not gonna be a lot of overlap…

---

So what adjustments can/should be made?

1. Temper your expectations in 9-handed 2-blind games, no matter how great the lineup is. It takes big hand over hand, the right runout, the right game flow, favorable stack sizes, etc, to win a lot generally in this format no matter what, and you honestly might not get that perfect storm (and hold) for weeks…

2. If you think you have an actual skill advantage (not a folding advantage) in a lineup- or you just want to see if you have one/you really want to compete, do everything you can (without pissing people off) to get the straddle on. The straddle isn’t a perfect counter to the slowness of live poker, but it adds a ton of edge available imo. There is suddenly something to play for pre and everyone has to PLAY (as opposed to when there are only 2 blinds there isn’t much to play for pre and everyone has to WAIT).

Adding an ante would also work, but people don’t like putting in money every hand ime, so focus on the straddle. And then talk to your casino about making table plaques for when the game has officially become a straddle game. They can take a little more rake (NO ONE cares about the increase enough to quit) and there is no issue with missed blinds and posting. And ofc once a game is officially “5-10-20” or whatever, no dirty shortsighted nit grinder fake pro can sit down and **** everything up!

3. Play short-handed AMAP. Most casinos give a rake reduction short-handed, which makes things doubly nice. And like when there is a straddle on, the correct (and only) strategy sh is to PLAY POKER. You also get way more hands dealt/a somewhat less ridic sample obv.

So don’t pick up right away just because the fish does or whatever. Don’t scream at the floor every time there is an open seat and they are unaware. Don’t have people picked up when they are on long breaks. Etc.


Disclaimer: If you enjoy folding (idk, maybe it reminds you of throwing a Frisbee or something) or if the thought of actually playing poker beyond what’s standard/solved/in forums and books everywhere stresses you the **** out or something, and you really are just there for the free drinks or food (some places) and/or the expert sports betting tips/poker hand analysis- simply say this…

Spoiler:



Cheers
Quote:
Originally Posted by DGAF View Post
The Abyss

I was in Vegas this year ****ing off during the WSOP. I was at a poker table one morning when someone I respect probably more than anyone else in the (poker/gambling) world sits down. I respect him because he has been around/in action/surviving forever→ sounds easy I’m sure to anyone who has been crushing over their first few years of live play (there are plenty of people on extended heaters all around the world), but it’s not, at all, for a myriad of reasons (just look at how few 10 year+ vets there are)… I also respect this guy because he is completely loaded with humility and sincerity- he will talk straight/share stories and information with anyone who is not a POS, and if you watch closely you will see him help/take care of all sorts of very down on their luck/haggard looking characters (I can only imagine how many of these dudes were crushers/ballers at one point) who pass by him in the poker room, randomly or not…

ANYWAYS, this dude has pretty much “seen it all.” At least as much as anyone else I ever play with (I’ve played with older players—this guy is mid-fifties-- who have prob played more hours of poker total, but I’m talking about playing in the biggest games, for a living, etc). And in addition to poker, this guy is a very sharp sports bettor/gambler. So he understands edge available, variance, etc, extremely well (especially for an lol live pro )…

ANYWAYS, ANYWAYS, this guy takes a 1-outer beat for stacks to some foreign kid pretty quickly after he sits down. Now he has never been one to complain at the table obv (anyone who has been around at all knows to not do this), and the permanent dark bags under his eyes tell you this is far from the first time he’s gotten super unlucky/faced adversity in his life (to further illustrate how old school this dude is, when I started playing with him he straight up told me I reminded him of Stu Ungar, because I was a fish 9 handed , but the last person he liked playing against short-handed )… But he actually has a legit befuddled/just seen a ghost look on his face after his ~ 3k stack is pulled in by the dealer and pushed to the foreign kid. Which is my que to say quietly from across the table, “Gross.”

Surprisingly (shockingly, actually) he breaks code and opens up to me in front of everyone. “(DGAF),” he says in gentle disgust (he knows I’ve got some miles on me too now lol), “that’s the third 1-outer this week!” And after I make the actual “eek” face, he concludes while shaking his head, “These past 2 months are the worst I’ve EVER run… Seriously… Just incredible…”

---

So what?! Why am I making this super long as it is thread, even longer? Just to talk about some old schooler who ran bad this summer???

No. I’m writing this post for me (and for some of you). This old schooler wasn’t just “running bad.” He knows how to handle “running bad.” He was running sooooo bad that he was actually in the variance abyss, where NO ONE can see straight/act right/play their A game.

After 30-40 years of beats, swings, anomalies, etc, one hand/one stroke of bad luck certainly wasn’t going to phase the Vegas old schooler. And it didn’t. It was the anomalous streak of bad luck strokes (I only witnessed the most recent one) that got him. But still, that this super seasoned vet, who understands math/probabilities/variance/etc very well (and he’s tough as nails btw), was completely owned/destroyed by his recent unlucky streak- I found that to be pretty ****ing amazing/telling. And his face/reaction/befuddlement that morning has been in the back of my mind ever since…


I’ve been to the variance abyss a couple times in my own career (2 insanely horrific against all odds stretches over ~ 7 years of high volume live play/gambling where I myself- pretty ****ing logical, well versed, battle tested, etc- was seeing ghosts and in turn, acting/playing a fool.).

I’m actually just coming out of my second stint in the abyss now (I ran good and won heaps over my last 2 sessions, which doesn’t mean I’m safely out for sure or I can’t go right back in lol, but I def feel different than I have the past few months, and I look forward to returning to form as a poker player/person soon- I hope). And it temporarily changes you, no matter who you are/how long you’ve been around/how much you’ve thought about all this stuff…

The abyss makes you self-destructive. It makes you depressed. It drains your energy. It makes you make bad calls, bad folds, bad bluffs, bad value bets, etc. It makes you readable at the table. It makes everyone else less readable. The fish suddenly play OK against you. The scared grinders suddenly play well against you. And the world class players suddenly own your troubled soul. YOU are the blood in the water- even if you’ve always been the alpha shark.

The variance abyss also makes you do dumb ****/things you never would. For respectable gamblers like the Vegas old schooler, it makes you actually talk about your bad luck at the table, even though you know it’s bad for the game and no one cares/wants to hear about it. For other less respectable gamblers, it often does much worse. There are countless examples obv (just go search NVG or HSNL) of the abyss quickly turning OK people/harmless poker enthusiasts into scammers, deadbeats, crazy people→ no one running good/OK ever owes a bunch of people money or is out scamming/committing crimes or sleeping on the streets or whatever.


So what does the abyss look like? It’s more than just some longshot beats obv. It’s ALWAYS finding the top of a range when the money goes in. It’s finding the very bottom of a range when the money doesn’t go in. It’s constantly turning 2 pair or trips when you are against a set. It’s ALWAYS BEING AGAINST A SET. It’s flopping a set yourself (finally) but knowing you aren’t going to win (and you don’t). It’s the game breaking at your lowpoint every session. It’s the 100 vpip fish taking a phone call as you get your first good hand. It’s being in position with dominating hands against a whale all night and never winning. It’s having a rep/image such that no one folds anything to you and yet you don’t turn over a winning hand for like 3 sessions straight. It’s doing all the things you've always done to cultivate a good game (investing lots of time, money and energy) and then having some other good player randomly show up and start binking all over the place until all the free money is gone. It’s getting all your playable hands in the sb. It’s having someone spill their drink on your lap. It’s getting gum on your pants from under the table- on both legs. It’s knocking your sirachi sauce off your food tray and having it hit the floor in such a magical way that it shoots up into the air and all over the well dressed high stakes limit pro behind you . It’s someone forgetting to straddle when you get aces. It’s firing a second barrel as your opponent picks up a flush draw, firing a third when they get there, checking back worse when they don’t. It’s having a nit bluff you…

In the abyss you don’t lose 5 flips in a row. You lose 5 flips in a row, then 5 more , then 5 more, then 5 more, and so on… You get sick of flipping but the whale demands you do it/he pays you juice. He’s a little bit shady and you don’t know if he already looked at his cards so you agree, but only if you can switch cards. He agrees and you give him your Aces… You don’t fire the 5 sharp nfl plays you get (because you are being responsible) and you watch them go 5-0 easy. The next week you say, “**** it, gamble!” and you fire the 5 new sharp plays given to you. You go 0-5 (partially because Eli Manning is a worthless human being), and you suddenly realize that you’ve had 0 winning sports betting weeks in the last 6 months. Now needing to earn in poker, you lose a bunch, 4 sessions in a row- in insanely soft short-handed big games, that YOU built. You win 200 bucks the next session (hey, you’ll take it), but get completely whacked right when you sit down the following session. And so on…

---

So who has been to the abyss? All but the newest players have seen glimpses of it imo. I got overset twice in an hour and 4 times in a session playing big a few years ago. That’s a glimpse. I played a 3000 bb pot with A9 vs AA on 9954 and did not win a few years before that. That’s a glimpse. I got it all in on the flop the other day (single raised multiway pot, I called on the button pre) with 8h6h vs 9c8d on 9s7h5s and I got felted. If I hadn’t already been in the abyss, that would have merely been a glimpse as well.

The abyss is basically relentless bad luck/no relief. You have to think, “OK, and it can’t get any worse than this” at least 20 times in a row spread out over time before it’s even possible you are in it. You have to FEEL like you CAN’T WIN (even if lots of data/results/logic suggests the opposite). You have to literally want to cry or break something for several hours straight (depending on how you deal with ****) for there to even be a chance you are in it. You have to a least ponder for a second when getting dressed which shirt might be luckiest/break the slump (even if you aren’t a superstitious idiot). You have to at least consider seat changing or asking for a new setup for real (even though you hate that **** and know it’s super ******ed and would never actually do it). You have to at least get mad at/airball the dealers a little for your bad hands. It has to look like there are 15 people at the table when the game is full. You have to start thinking a little, “This guy is playing kinda good” when you know deep down said guy is super terrible. You have to honestly think (and maybe even tell a friend), “No one has EVER run this bad before…“ Otherwise, no shot you have been there imo.

As mentioned, I’ve been to the abyss twice in my (pretty long) career (fingers crossed, 7 hail marys, etc, my last 2 sessions just brought me out). The Vegas old schooler has probably been there more than that (though he plays a WAY lower variance brand of poker/gambling, so maybe not). Guys like Doyle Brunson, Barry Greenstein, Mike Matusow, Ted Forrest, etc, I’m sure they’ve all been there plenty (you can see it on their faces). But have guys like Antonio Esfandiari? Idk, he’s prob played a lot of poker, but as a commentator he’s said some things that honestly make me think he hasn’t/he doesn’t even remotely grasp variance as it applies to live poker.


What % of the people playing in the biggest game in your casino have been there? Like really been there? I’d say maybe 20%. What % of the hotshots/LAGs (people still playing LAG that is) have been there? Pretty much zero.

The reason for these low figures? For sane, healthy people, one extended trip to the abyss is enough imo. They aren’t going back. Whether that means playing way tighter/more conservative, much smaller (where the abyss doesn’t really hurt), or quitting poker/gambling all together, that’s what the human survival instinct has most sane people do imo. The pain and the financial loss is just too much…

As mentioned, some warriors do just stick it out and get perma bags under their eyes and occasionally act like rookies at the table. And some stay around but it’s not long until they resort to illegal/dirty activity until they are completely broke, locked up, banned, or worse.

And then others try to document/sort through their super fishy thoughts (which only show up while in the abyss every few years) with super long, rambling essays posted anonymously on the internet, all in an effort to be more objective, stronger, and more sane (and maybe help a few others do the same) in general, and ESPECIALLY the next time they find themselves in the The Abyss.


Spoiler:


K, now run good now/don't trip on this post too much lol, just let it be something you have in your back pocket to better cope/come out faster should you ever find yourself out shopping for lucky shirts, telling your friends you have “the worst luck ever”, or grinding HARD in bankroll rebuilding mode- again, after being super pumped up- again just a few months ago.

GL
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scansion View Post
Great posts DGAF. A lot resonated with me, and it's fascinating coming to understand some of the ups and downs of live poker variance (and realizing how poorly I really understand it). I'll take another shot at an analogy as it seems to be a theme here.

Poker is like that hot, crazy girlfriend. The beginning is full of fire, obsession, passion. You vibe well and can't get enough, realizing pretty quickly that this might more than a passing interest. A few red flags along the way aren't enough to slow your determination to throw caution to the wind - nothing good is ever perfect, right? The good times far outweigh the bad, and the excitement of the everyday experience of things allows you to overlook some of the increasingly drawn out periods of irrational behavior.

So you take the plunge - this is now serious, and a large part of your life. She's something your friends know about, are curious about, even supportive of in certain ways, for obvious reasons that anyone can see. What's known in public is positive - you're "cool", and seem happy. Somehow your life is changing, yet still, for the better. You deal with the occasional negatives, as it's part of the game, right? Even when it's bad, you know the strategies required to deal with these issues; everyone involved in something this serious knows that calmly, rationally, discussing how to proceed is the only way to make progress. Eventually, those good times come around, and they're ****ing great.

Or maybe, they're not. Maybe you realize that this isn't something you want to push past a year or two of serious commitment, something that has a wild, untameable streak that isn't worth exploring further. That x-factor has reared its ugly side too many brutally hurtful times, leaving you commiserating with the bottom of the nth bottle, watching your hardened disposition cripple into literal tears. Something connects in a rational part of your mind, telling you that, as a lifestyle, this is no longer in the cards. That cute girl in finance gave you her card last week and expects a call - maybe that's the stability you need. It's going to be predictable, and you'll have to yes-man your way through a field of safely shallow conversations within a pragmatic lifestyle, but you'll get what you really need. None of the highs, none of the lows. But maybe that card slips uncalled into a fold in your wallet, just for a little while. Maybe there's something too certain about it. Maybe you intuit that, unlike what you have now, she'd never be able to **** you just right. Why turn to that - you pretty much have things under control anyhow.

Things become solid, and the bad times become less common. Perhaps you've begun to understand something about her. You're becoming more fascinated, finding out things you didn't even know were there, realizing new heights and validating efforts spent within more tumultuous times. You're encouraged to show unique, bold, creative parts of yourself that you didn't realize could even be celebrated or rewarded - but they are! New peaks, new "best day ever" situations come up, and the bad times fade, they seem alien. You've finally understood, tamed the beast. You tie the proverbial knot, and realize that this is now a full-time responsibility; there's no fall-back or getting out. Imagine what failure would consist of, and how humiliating it would be to tell your family and friends. They'd never understand, and you'd have to watch as their first impression is proven correct.

It gets bad again. This time you wait it out, knowing from experience how this works. Disappointed it got to this point again, needing to utilize the mental gymnastics to reframe something that it seemed so recently was beyond perfect, you put effort into something that's worth it. That you've invested so much time into.

It gets worse -- worse than it ever has, by a lot. Something seems warped; what's worked so well in the past never works. Your confidence wavers and your patience erodes. You become risk-averse, placating what seems like inevitable scathing. The tears come back in the particularly bad nights, and you find yourself begging to someone who's not listening, to just appreciate how hard you're trying. And just then at the edge of the slope, you find a little piece of sympathy, just enough to keep believing and keep fighting for that perfect world you used to live in. But this time you're more conscious of a sentiment that had been swimming around below the surface: you can leave if you really, really want to.

Maybe you stay. Maybe you're in too deep, physically, financially, emotionally. Maybe you're OK with playing a game where you'll have to watch, occasionally, as a little piece of you chips away. Maybe you have kids, which make it impractical to leave -- how would things work then? For their futures? Or maybe there's something hopelessly romantic in your perspective, unshakably convinced that, after all these years, you'll never find something this uniquely fitting. Maybe she'll change?
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Old 01-08-2018, 02:03 PM   #20480
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
How quickly? In sessions or in hours?
Try chopping your hours into various block sizes and see how similar your sample StnDev is between the blocks when compared to sample winrate between the blocks. Try 500, 200, etc. My math degree is too rusty to throw down the formulas.
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Old 01-08-2018, 02:27 PM   #20481
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Please. Eli Manning is the GOAT. Only man to beat Tom Brady in a Super Bowl. Twice. So clearly DGAF is just a high variance fish that sucks at poker. /s

Although that is one of the more perfect descriptions of The Abyss I've read.

I get this:
If I calculate standard deviation over time.
Looks like it "converges" quickly at first, then it doesn't. Then there's a decent amount of difference in 500 hour samples (although not that much "noise"). bip! would know off the top of his head.
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Old 01-08-2018, 03:17 PM   #20482
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Nice post by Johnny regarding variance, imo.

We don't always see eye-to-eye in some of the strat threads, but I think we're a lot more on the same page regarding this issue.

Gourlifetimeamountoflivehandswillbealolpatheticsam plesize,imoG
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Old 01-08-2018, 06:54 PM   #20483
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Please. Eli Manning is the GOAT. Only man to beat Tom Brady in a Super Bowl. Twice. So clearly DGAF is just a high variance fish that sucks at poker. /s

Although that is one of the more perfect descriptions of The Abyss I've read.

I get this:
If I calculate standard deviation over time.
Looks like it "converges" quickly at first, then it doesn't. Then there's a decent amount of difference in 500 hour samples (although not that much "noise"). bip! would know off the top of his head.
I'm not sure how to calculate it exactly mathematically, so I ran some simulations to get a very close estimate. Each bracket shows the percent chance of a random sample being within 2.5BB, 5BB, 7.5BB, 10BB, 12.5BB, 15BB of actual expectation.

SD per HR = 60BB and 100 Hour Random Sample:
WR - [32, 59, 79, 90, 96, 99]
SD - [45, 76, 92, 98, 100, 100]

SD per HR = 60BB and 500 Hour Random Sample:
WR - [64, 93, 99, 100, 100, 100]
SD - [81, 99, 100, 100, 100, 100]

SD per HR = 80BB and 100 Hour Random Sample:
WR - [25, 47, 66, 79, 89, 94]
SD - [34, 62, 81, 92, 97, 99]

SD per HR = 80BB and 500 Hour Random Sample:
WR - [49, 83, 96, 99, 100, 100]
SD - [68, 95, 99, 100, 100, 100]

how to read those results - for example, if we have a 5BB WR expectation and a true SD per hour of 60BB and we take a random sample of 100 hours of our results, there is about a 59% chance that the random sample would show a winrate between 0BB-10BB and about a 76% chance that the random sample would show a SD per hour of 55BB-65BB.

i've put my Python3 code into a spoiler as pro programmers may wish to avert their eyes. I welcome any input on methodology as I'm not up on any current theories of modelling live play. (for example - if 5% of the time, our table conditions are "awesome" but with much higher variance, how should/could we model that)

Spoiler:
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Old 01-08-2018, 07:13 PM   #20484
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what's your StnDev per hour?
53.8BB/hr
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Old 01-08-2018, 07:34 PM   #20485
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hellova poast JB - if you ever make it to florida would love to buy you a beer - much respect
Thanks squid - missed this first time thru. Not sure if I’ll be down there anytime soon, but as a fan of the extreme sports (mostly skiing and skydiving) I’ll take you up on that offer to trade some stories.
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Old 01-08-2018, 08:04 PM   #20486
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Great. Let me be the first to congratulate you on your very first half-year anniversary birthday!!!

I'll leave you with some reading material from a guy with 17,000 - 20,000 hours that you can choose to disregard as blasphemy if you'd like.
Quote:
I got it all in on the flop the other day (single raised multiway pot, I called on the button pre) with 8h6h vs 9c8d on 9s7h5s and I got felted.
Fold pre
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Old 01-08-2018, 08:07 PM   #20487
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Good poast by Johnny regarding variance in livepoker, and also the legendary stuff from DGAF regarding variance/the abyss is well known for many of us.

I can only sign on the abyss statements from DGAF: if you havent experienced being in the abyss yourself and truly felt it on your own body how you literally _cant win_, its impossible to grasp the dimensions of it.

That being said i will also add in a few words about the fact that i think many peoples most horrible downswings is compounded by various kind of tilt (maybe even unconcious), bad play, not playing your A game anymore and making worse decisions cause your insane bad run of cards will cloud your judgements. This of course is just like dropping gas in the fireplace, and just adds weight to the burden on your shoulders. It keeps the misery going on alot longer.

Sure, alot of good winning players who have never really ran abyss bad- they state it like the most obvious thing in the world when they without any road bumpers at all wins 8 out 10 sessions for months and months "i know bad downswings will come, i will handle it". But that is often excuse me pure BS. Running abyss bad ****s with your mind, it make you question the most obvious decisions if you have to be there for an extended period of time. It can even make you question your life and your existance when at its darkest. You lose your sleep, you lose your desire to eat, you cant explain what youre going through,even 98 percent of your poker friends have no chance of putting themself in your place. You really cant imagine how it wears on you mentally and pshycially over time driving to the casino and grind your ass off for 10 hours a day,only to drop 2-3-4-5 buyins every day-taking the most ridicilous beats over and over and over again:unless you have been there yourself.
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Old 01-08-2018, 08:29 PM   #20488
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

so here are my 2017 results. I was a blackjack pro but games became unplayable, so got my hands on live poker late 2015, was a losing player in first 12 months but decided that poker intrigues me so much that im going to play through whatever is ahead. became breakeven for a couple of months towards the end of 2016, did some studying, and here are my 2017 results. I must have one of the weirdest winrate in terms of 1/2 and 2/5. Here in my local casino there s a huge difference between 1/2 and 2/5, 2/5 is usually the highest stake running and therefore where all the pros are (but games only run when there are spots). My low winrate at 1/2 is simply because I bluff way too much (most of my 1/2 volume was in the first half of the year, I felt that I improved massive since), and also ran amazingly bad in some big pots. But on the other hand I was running insane at 2/5. Obviously had a good year £££ wise but not sure how much of this is sustainable. would be glad if i can hit even half of my last year's 2/5 winrate in 2018.



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Old 01-08-2018, 08:33 PM   #20489
Petrucci
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Originally Posted by meale View Post
Fold pre
Look meale, i follow your thread in the pokergoals underforum- and you seems like a smart well reflected guy with lots of good thought about poker/life.

Are you trolling regarding the variance post from DGAF that Johnny quoted? Like "fold pre", is that your only response when you read that kind of stuff from a guy who have played close to 20 000 hours of livepoker and is a well known high stakes pro for years?
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Old 01-08-2018, 08:39 PM   #20490
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
Look meale, i follow your thread in the pokergoals underforum- and you seems like a smart well reflected guy with lots of good thought about poker/life.

Are you trolling regarding the variance post from DGAF that Johnny quoted? Like "fold pre", is that your only response when you read that kind of stuff from a guy who have played close to 20 000 hours of livepoker and is a well known high stakes pro for years?
Yes, I was being facetious.
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Old 01-08-2018, 09:12 PM   #20491
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
53.8BB/hr
Mike, you say that is your standard deviation, but what session logger are you using? All the ones I've seen show it in BBs & it doesn't say per hr, so I don't know if that's per session or what.

My avg win is 91.34BB & avg loss is 91.12BB but I've won 65.75% of my sessions. Since the avg session was probably 4.5hrs over the last 13 months, I've played ~357 sessions. This is probable, because I live 15 miles from casino, will play during day & come back at night quite often. This is all 1/2NL, as I keep other limits on another session logger.

357 sessions * .6575 wins * 91.34BBs = + $21,440
357 sessions * .3425 losses * 91.12BBs = $11,141.

That shows me with a net profit of about $10.3K but I won over $20K. So either my avg session is shorter, or, I'm not considering something else.

I only had 1 losing month in the last 13 & that was for $14.00. I had 6 months that were under $12.00 per hr & 3 of those were under $5.00 per hour. However, I've had 6 months that were over $20 per hr & every month [except 1] was over 100 hours.

Now here's a small sample: Since 1Dec2017, I've played 162.5 hrs, won 77.27% of my sessions & am averaging $33 per hr playing 1/2NL.

I have had these kind of heaters in the past & they are always followed up with a cold spell. Almost every time I hit that cold spell I weather it better than the times before. For instance, in 2016 I had more losing months & that was primarily due to going on entitlement tilt during those cold spells. Last year I stayed more mentally on point & grinded my way through the spell.

I'm better prepared for the next one [mentally] than ever before....my Shrink gave me some great meds!

I couldn't imagine having to play poker for a living.
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Old 01-08-2018, 09:12 PM   #20492
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Originally Posted by dayurou View Post
so here are my 2017 results.
Wow great results dayurou!
Where do you play?
I started playing some 1/2 live and was doing really well pretty much not bluffing at all- for some reason I changed and started bluffing a lot and my results went terrible, small sample but would you suggest hardly bluffing at 1/2?
Take it your bluffing works at 2/5?

Good luck for 2018 will be interesting to see how your 2/5 winrate changes
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Old 01-08-2018, 09:42 PM   #20493
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Wow great results dayurou!
Where do you play?
I started playing some 1/2 live and was doing really well pretty much not bluffing at all- for some reason I changed and started bluffing a lot and my results went terrible, small sample but would you suggest hardly bluffing at 1/2?
Take it your bluffing works at 2/5?

Good luck for 2018 will be interesting to see how your 2/5 winrate changes
i play in London. I would suggest in general never to bluff in 1/2, unless you are playing exploitatively against a very specific type of villain. ive learned that people at 1/2 care much less about your image than you think. i.e. they are almost as likely to pay you off if you've been quiet all session vs you showing the bluffs. I adopt a much more balanced approach at 2/5 to not get exploited by fellow pros. I still play exploitatively vs fishes in 2/5. another thing to add in 1/2 is that i stopped 3 betting wide especially vs people who have a wide limping range but suddenly decide to open. I used to do that a lot because I believed in my skill edge post flop and often how easy people are to read and play against in 1/2 especially when you are in position. but i stopped doing that with the bottom of my 3b range as it is simply not worth it vs their opening range. it comes down to the basic 101 of 'whats his range' but I didnt think I gave enough thought into that when I was losing at 1/2.

to add to the above, I used to sometimes simply want to outplay a fish so much to the extent that i start assigning ridiculous hands to their range just to justify my call downs. big mistake. they snap fold their blocker type hands on the river 99% of the time, and turn them into bluffs 1% of the time without realising what they are doing. tl:dr, fold to them, dont bluff them, dont go into battles with them.

Last edited by dayurou; 01-08-2018 at 09:49 PM.
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Old 01-08-2018, 10:06 PM   #20494
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Originally Posted by dayurou View Post
i play in London. I would suggest in general never to bluff in 1/2, unless you are playing exploitatively against a very specific type of villain. ive learned that people at 1/2 care much less about your image than you think. i.e. they are almost as likely to pay you off if you've been quiet all session vs you showing the bluffs. I adopt a much more balanced approach at 2/5 to not get exploited by fellow pros. I still play exploitatively vs fishes in 2/5. another thing to add in 1/2 is that i stopped 3 betting wide especially vs people who have a wide limping range but suddenly decide to open. I used to do that a lot because I believed in my skill edge post flop and often how easy people are to read and play against in 1/2 especially when you are in position. but i stopped doing that with the bottom of my 3b range as it is simply not worth it vs their opening range. it comes down to the basic 101 of 'whats his range' but I didnt think I gave enough thought into that when I was losing at 1/2.

to add to the above, I used to sometimes simply want to outplay a fish so much to the extent that i start assigning ridiculous hands to their range just to justify my call downs. big mistake. they snap fold their blocker type hands on the river 99% of the time, and turn them into bluffs 1% of the time without realising what they are doing. tl:dr, fold to them, dont bluff them, dont go into battles with them.
When I play I play in London too

Ah nice point about 3betting hadn't thought of that a great deal but seems a very good point if they are going from limping to raising. Impressive how you seem to be crushing poker after just a couple of years.

With me it's the opposite I don't really care about outplaying the fish as they do some daft things..... It's the nits or good players I end up trying to outplay and get myself in trouble at the moment.

Again when I first started I would just pretty much give nits/good players no action whatsoever and concentrate on playing the fish which was working well but I changed and have been losing a lot to them recently....... Find them frustrating to play against (nits)
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Old 01-08-2018, 10:47 PM   #20495
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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Mike, you say that is your standard deviation, but what session logger are you using? All the ones I've seen show it in BBs & it doesn't say per hr, so I don't know if that's per session or what.

My avg win is 91.34BB & avg loss is 91.12BB but I've won 65.75% of my sessions. Since the avg session was probably 4.5hrs over the last 13 months, I've played ~357 sessions. This is probable, because I live 15 miles from casino, will play during day & come back at night quite often. This is all 1/2NL, as I keep other limits on another session logger.

357 sessions * .6575 wins * 91.34BBs = + $21,440
357 sessions * .3425 losses * 91.12BBs = $11,141.

That shows me with a net profit of about $10.3K but I won over $20K. So either my avg session is shorter, or, I'm not considering something else.

I only had 1 losing month in the last 13 & that was for $14.00. I had 6 months that were under $12.00 per hr & 3 of those were under $5.00 per hour. However, I've had 6 months that were over $20 per hr & every month [except 1] was over 100 hours.

Now here's a small sample: Since 1Dec2017, I've played 162.5 hrs, won 77.27% of my sessions & am averaging $33 per hr playing 1/2NL.

I have had these kind of heaters in the past & they are always followed up with a cold spell. Almost every time I hit that cold spell I weather it better than the times before. For instance, in 2016 I had more losing months & that was primarily due to going on entitlement tilt during those cold spells. Last year I stayed more mentally on point & grinded my way through the spell.

I'm better prepared for the next one [mentally] than ever before....my Shrink gave me some great meds!

I couldn't imagine having to play poker for a living.
I use the "Run Good" app. I dont know what you mean. The App shows the StnDev per hour and per session and both are listed in $$/hr. I converted it to BB/hr myself.

The App shows $269/hr playing 2/5 which is 53.8BB/hr.
My per session StnDev is $514 or 101BBs per session.
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Old 01-08-2018, 10:53 PM   #20496
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I use the "Run Good" app. I dont know what you mean. The App shows the StnDev per hour and per session and both are listed in $$/hr. I converted it to BB/hr myself.

The App shows $269/hr playing 2/5 which is 53.8BB/hr.
My per session StnDev is $514 or 101BBs per session.
I'm trying to consolidate our two numbers... Mine just says "Std. Dev. 206.331bb", are you on average playing sessions half as long as me or?
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Old 01-08-2018, 11:00 PM   #20497
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@MikeStarr: Got it. I thought the $514 was $51.40 My Std. Dev. is 116.69BBs which is close to yours.
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Old 01-08-2018, 11:05 PM   #20498
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I wonder if LeBron knows how many little bumps are on a regulation basketball.
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Old 01-08-2018, 11:07 PM   #20499
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I wonder if LeBron knows how many little bumps are on a regulation basketball.
Are you saying discussion of stdev is unimportant? It's probably THE most important thing when it comes to winning long term?
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Old 01-08-2018, 11:12 PM   #20500
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I wonder if LeBron knows how many little bumps are on a regulation basketball.
ha! you make fun, but this stuff can be important. Should I play on Mondays? Why not turn pro? Should I move up?
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