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Old 01-07-2018, 07:40 AM   #20451
johnnyBuz
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Played first session of 2018 after coming off my worst month in nearly 2 years in December. Ran fairly good for the most part and made strong value bets whenever possible. The only major losing hands were QQ where I went 0/3 for ~100 BB’s and AKs vs. straddler/shove short stack’s AA where we flopped case ace.

After the 4000+ hours I’ve logged over last few years it’s rather drab to report that the majority of this game comes down to how you run. Part of my evolution as a player was transitioning from my run good “I’m so awesome beating every stake for the 12-15 BB’s/hr with a 45’ giraffe for 1000 hours so I’m ready to go pro” phase to enduring the ultimate grind throughout 2016-2017 where no wins were easy and unfathomably horrendous run bad was around every corner and ensured unabated for two years.

A few people tried to explain it to me while I was in peak run good so naturally I dismissed it as sour grapes or whatever. But now that I’ve seen the light I can say it’s just one of those things every player has to experience them self in their own way to appreciate how utterly massive a role variance plays in your results over thousands upon thousands upon thousands of hours.

Even harder to eventually realize was that some people may never even reach that point during their live career. After 4000 hours and counting I truly believe it’s possible to just run extremely well for the entirety of your live “career” (3-10 years / 1000-10,000+ hours) that you’ll never truly appreciate the randomness of hand distributions if all you know is - raised pre, flopped top top, value bet 3 streets vs. a villain I had a good read on that would pay off with worse. When I was running very good, all I thought about was “way to go jbuz way to maximize value and bet 3 streets with a solid read.”

It’s only after months and months and months and months of going through the foreign and unfamiliar territory of what I now refer to as “dead sessions” where you may see an expected distribution of preflop and postflop hands but they consistently come at the wrong time, never extract value, get felted with second best monsters, lose your 95/5, 80/20, 70/30, 67/33, 60/40 and 53/43’s for stacks time and time and time again that it allows you to truly appreciate when you are blessed with “run good.”

I don’t know if it’s a good thing or a bad thing, but I am so completely in tune with how my sessions play out now that I can objectively point out when I am running good. And the biggest eye opening realization to me was just recognizing you gotta ride the wave and stack paper and hope it lasts cuz you never know when things will do a 180’ leaving you with questions of “what is going on and how is this possible?”

I’m glad I have the right mindset now and especially glad I experienced the misery that is playing full-time while seeing results way below where you expect and actively going through the transformation that is the randomness of poker.

Especially glad to be back in the land of the living in a new career I’m super excited about and knowing poker is reassuming it’s place as a part time side hustle that covers most of my month to month expenses so I can focus on work and career aspirations.

I certainly don’t recommend anyone go pro as anything more than a temporary stop gap, but having lived it myself and ignoring all the warnings I realize anyone that is seriously considering it is going to make the decision for them self and largely ignore advice because it’s incredibly difficult to synthesize and empathize with experiences and advice that you’ve never dealt with first hand.

/end rant
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Old 01-07-2018, 09:27 AM   #20452
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hellova poast JB - if you ever make it to florida would love to buy you a beer - much respect
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Old 01-07-2018, 09:45 AM   #20453
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Played first session of 2018 after coming off my worst month in nearly 2 years in December. Ran fairly good for the most part and made strong value bets whenever possible. The only major losing hands were QQ where I went 0/3 for ~100 BB’s and AKs vs. straddler/shove short stack’s AA where we flopped case ace.

After the 4000+ hours I’ve logged over last few years it’s rather drab to report that the majority of this game comes down to how you run. Part of my evolution as a player was transitioning from my run good “I’m so awesome beating every stake for the 12-15 BB’s/hr with a 45’ giraffe for 1000 hours so I’m ready to go pro” phase to enduring the ultimate grind throughout 2016-2017 where no wins were easy and unfathomably horrendous run bad was around every corner and ensured unabated for two years.

A few people tried to explain it to me while I was in peak run good so naturally I dismissed it as sour grapes or whatever. But now that I’ve seen the light I can say it’s just one of those things every player has to experience them self in their own way to appreciate how utterly massive a role variance plays in your results over thousands upon thousands upon thousands of hours.

Even harder to eventually realize was that some people may never even reach that point during their live career. After 4000 hours and counting I truly believe it’s possible to just run extremely well for the entirety of your live “career” (3-10 years / 1000-10,000+ hours) that you’ll never truly appreciate the randomness of hand distributions if all you know is - raised pre, flopped top top, value bet 3 streets vs. a villain I had a good read on that would pay off with worse. When I was running very good, all I thought about was “way to go jbuz way to maximize value and bet 3 streets with a solid read.”

It’s only after months and months and months and months of going through the foreign and unfamiliar territory of what I now refer to as “dead sessions” where you may see an expected distribution of preflop and postflop hands but they consistently come at the wrong time, never extract value, get felted with second best monsters, lose your 95/5, 80/20, 70/30, 67/33, 60/40 and 53/43’s for stacks time and time and time again that it allows you to truly appreciate when you are blessed with “run good.”

I don’t know if it’s a good thing or a bad thing, but I am so completely in tune with how my sessions play out now that I can objectively point out when I am running good. And the biggest eye opening realization to me was just recognizing you gotta ride the wave and stack paper and hope it lasts cuz you never know when things will do a 180’ leaving you with questions of “what is going on and how is this possible?”

I’m glad I have the right mindset now and especially glad I experienced the misery that is playing full-time while seeing results way below where you expect and actively going through the transformation that is the randomness of poker.

Especially glad to be back in the land of the living in a new career I’m super excited about and knowing poker is reassuming it’s place as a part time side hustle that covers most of my month to month expenses so I can focus on work and career aspirations.

I certainly don’t recommend anyone go pro as anything more than a temporary stop gap, but having lived it myself and ignoring all the warnings I realize anyone that is seriously considering it is going to make the decision for them self and largely ignore advice because it’s incredibly difficult to synthesize and empathize with experiences and advice that you’ve never dealt with first hand.

/end rant
Im sure you probably really have have some run bad. Im gone thru 2 streaks of run bad that seemed impossibly bad so I know what you mean. However, based on things like your comments here
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...=#post53320498

I think you are probably overplaying hands in some spots. Bet/call in that spot is terrible. Also, its almost impossible to get 3 streets of value in today's poker games. There just aren't very many people THAT bad anymore so if you're still going for 3 streets a lot, you are overplaying a lot.
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Old 01-07-2018, 10:48 AM   #20454
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Johhny, that was beautiful.

Mike, lol.
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Old 01-07-2018, 10:55 AM   #20455
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Johhny, that was beautiful.

Mike, lol.
I'm racking my brain thinking how to shut down Mike's comment and you crushed it.

Not going pro in the poasting game.
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Old 01-07-2018, 11:15 AM   #20456
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Whatever....if he wants to keep making the same mistakes and blaming his crazy variance on fate that's his business, but I bet his StnDev is 3 times what mine is. Some of this variance that everyone complains about is man made. That's my point.
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Old 01-07-2018, 11:53 AM   #20457
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He was crushing
poasters said, watch out for that variance
he said yolo and quit the well paying job that he hated
he wasn't crushing
he says, watch out for that variance
he's excited about his new career plans

the appropriate response to this heartfelt poast is not "yeah, but what about this leak over here"
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Old 01-07-2018, 01:01 PM   #20458
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I just so happened to read the thread where said he would bet/call the river, which is insane, and then I stopped over here and saw his post where he curses his 4000 hours of crazy variance. I stopped reading after the variance...blah blah blah...variance because Ive seen this so many times before. People blame bad play on variance. They think they just keep running into the top of peoples ranges when in fact everyone runs into the top of peoples ranges more or less the same amount over 4000+ hours but some people just lose less money when it happens.

I'm happy that hes happy about his future though.
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Old 01-07-2018, 02:07 PM   #20459
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Also, its almost impossible to get 3 streets of value in today's poker games.
grandpasimpson.gif
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Old 01-07-2018, 04:04 PM   #20460
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Not ganna comment on the validity of if he overplayed that hand or not (bcuz i dont feel like reading it for one)

However.... think about your statemenet of "people aren't bad enough to pay off 3 streets anymore". If thats true, can't we just print by tripple barrell bluffing bcuz they'll just fold like 95% of their range by the river? If the answer is anything other then "HELL YEAH", then you can indeed make plenty by getting 3 streets of value
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Old 01-07-2018, 04:09 PM   #20461
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Not ganna comment on the validity of if he overplayed that hand or not (bcuz i dont feel like reading it for one)

However.... think about your statemenet of "people aren't bad enough to pay off 3 streets anymore". If thats true, can't we just print by tripple barrell bluffing bcuz they'll just fold like 95% of their range by the river? If the answer is anything other then "HELL YEAH", then you can indeed make plenty by getting 3 streets of value
Yes, we should be triple barrelling a lot more than we did 2-3 years ago.
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Old 01-07-2018, 04:14 PM   #20462
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Mkay fair enough, so long as you're willing to double down on your statement.

Though even then I wouldn't use the term of people being "better" then they were before, they would simply be (according to you) now over-folding instead over-calling -- an equally bad exploit.
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Old 01-07-2018, 04:17 PM   #20463
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Mkay fair enough, so long as you're willing to double down on your statement.

Though even then I wouldn't use the term of people being "better" then they were before, they would simply be (according to you) now over-folding instead over-calling -- an equally bad exploit.
Now all we have to do is figure out who over calls and who over folds and we can crush. Seems simple enough
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Old 01-07-2018, 04:49 PM   #20464
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Well, players who truly crush at more than 12bb/hr really don't experience variance like jbuzz is talking about. Just no where near the amount that a 6bb/hr winner will get. It's strongly influenced by how well you're playing.
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Old 01-07-2018, 09:00 PM   #20465
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Well, players who truly crush at more than 12bb/hr really don't experience variance like jbuzz is talking about. Just no where near the amount that a 6bb/hr winner will get. It's strongly influenced by how well you're playing.
I want to agree with you, but I can't in good faith because that's part of his point -- those who are crushing for those amounts are crushing BECAUSE they haven't experienced that type of variance. Not saying he's right or wrong, just bringing that up.
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Old 01-07-2018, 09:11 PM   #20466
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Have never seen JB post something ITT that isn't him sooking about variance or how bad going pro is...
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Old 01-08-2018, 10:34 AM   #20467
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Have never seen JB post something ITT that isn't him sooking about variance or how bad going pro is...
Meale, serious question - how many hours of live poker have you played? As far as I can tell it's less than 1000 and the majority of those have come within the last 6 months when you've begun playing full-time.

It's not surprising when you say stuff like this that makes you look bat**** crazy.

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Yeeeah, the difference is though that even if things get tougher for Diz, he'll still make plenty of cash. If his hourly drops, he'll prob still be able to clear 100k EZ.
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Old 01-08-2018, 10:42 AM   #20468
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Old 01-08-2018, 10:58 AM   #20469
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Meale, serious question - how many hours of live poker have you played? As far as I can tell it's less than 1000 and the majority of those have come within the last 6 months when you've begun playing full-time.

It's not surprising when you say stuff like this that makes you look bat**** crazy.
More than 1000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 01-08-2018, 11:07 AM   #20470
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My experience is pretty similar to Johnny's. It was a great post.

My experience in other areas of gambling, where the results are less subjective, supports his account. To pick one example, my friends and I do some sports betting. Not full time, but whenever someone is free we scour for arbs and middles and stuff. We started this during the NBA playoffs and we didn't hit a middle until 2 weeks ago. I don't know the number but we were roughly zero for 50 and a lot of them were great. Then, 2 weeks ago we hit 3/4. But, it is quite plausible that we'd all have been busy or overslept that week and we'd now be sitting on 0-55 and they'd still be asking me if I was sure a middle between 20 and 23 was a good bet.

I also submit that if 12bb/hr were a realistic, long term result for mortals, a lot more people would opt to pull down over $70k per year in cash at 1/3 hold em.

However, I also think it is very, very hard to play your zeroed in A game for those kinds of hours. Like, almost impossible. So that might contribute to worse results once you go full time.
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Old 01-08-2018, 11:41 AM   #20471
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More than 1000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Please format your hours in units of 2500



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Old 01-08-2018, 11:45 AM   #20472
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Anyone else notice that the people who complain about insane variance, huge downswings and how you can never really know your true win rate no matter how many hours you play are the same people whose StnDev is insanely high?

I'm sure they also don't think its insanely high at all. They cant see the correlation? Really?
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Old 01-08-2018, 11:47 AM   #20473
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I believe the conversion would be +.4AVA, lemme grab my calculator tho.
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Old 01-08-2018, 11:48 AM   #20474
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Anyone else notice that the people who complain about insane variance, huge downswings and how you can never really know your true win rate no matter how many hours you play are the same people whose StnDev is insanely high?

I'm sure they also don't think its insanely high at all. They cant see the correlation? Really?
what's your StnDev per hour?
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Old 01-08-2018, 12:02 PM   #20475
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Anyone else notice that the people who complain about insane variance, huge downswings and how you can never really know your true win rate no matter how many hours you play are the same people whose StnDev is insanely high?

I'm sure they also don't think its insanely high at all. They cant see the correlation? Really?
Yeah, but it's not surprising at all.

Despite the variance, all those people that complain are still winning players.

They are just hyper-aware of how big of a role variance and run-good episodes play into your winrates. Even on a sample size as big as 1000 hours they play a huge role in the winrate. Your SD can be high regardless of your gameplay.

And what you see posted suffers from selection bias.
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