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Old 01-05-2018, 09:13 PM   #20426
sw_emigre
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I don't know why people are so averse to borrowing money if you're a winning player. The poster did say 100% or 90%+ certainty. People borrow money to go to school with way less certainty of getting a job than that.
Well the only way OP would know if he is a winning player with any certainty is if he had won before. In which case he'd have the BR and wouln't have posted the question.
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Old 01-05-2018, 09:38 PM   #20427
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yup. Most people who don't have records to prove it vastly overestimate their poker skill, past results, and chances of success. Heck, even those with records tend to overestimate.
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Old 01-05-2018, 09:57 PM   #20428
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I mean, there are ways to know if you're a winner other than results, and tbh results are one of the worse ways to know if you're a winner anyway.

And anyway I'm not suggesting OP can be sure he's a winning poker, just saying the suggestion is entirely reasonable based on the assumptions. It's the assumptions that need to be questioned.
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Old 01-05-2018, 10:01 PM   #20429
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I mean, there are ways to know if you're a winner other than results, and tbh results are one of the worse ways to know if you're a winner anyway.
For real?

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Old 01-05-2018, 10:01 PM   #20430
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Yes of course for real.
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Old 01-05-2018, 10:08 PM   #20431
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The number of players who have historic winning results that can't beat a game is fairly notable. Known of 100k/year winnners that can't beat 5/10 anymore, and that's not including people who ran good to win in the past. All these tournament pros have won tons in the past but are completely awful in this day and age.

The variance in poker is pretty staggering sometimes. I feel like I can fairly easily tell if a player is a clear winning player (vs potentially marginal, or losing) by playing 10-20 hours with them and talking half an hour of hand histories with them. Obviously if I think a player is probably a slight winner then I can't be as sure which side of breakeven he's going to be, especially if he has tilt leaks, though I can make guesses, and I think the guesses, depending on how much info I have (like more hours and talking more obv more accuracy), could be more accurate than 1000-2000 hours of results.

This is intuitive though, I suppose. Hard to have proof about this sort of thing.

I feel like when you've gone up and down and up and down stakes for almost 10 years, you get a grasp on these things, and even just being able to tell if someone can make it as a pro.
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Old 01-05-2018, 10:19 PM   #20432
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think Sol Reader's point is that a game can change and get tougher quicker than the speed at which a person can get meaningful results?
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Old 01-05-2018, 10:20 PM   #20433
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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The number of players who have historic winning results that can't beat a game is fairly notable. Known of 100k/year winnners that can't beat 5/10 anymore, and that's not including people who ran good to win in the past. All these tournament pros have won tons in the past but are completely awful in this day and age.

The variance in poker is pretty staggering sometimes. I feel like I can fairly easily tell if a player is a clear winning player (vs potentially marginal, or losing) by playing 10-20 hours with them and talking half an hour of hand histories with them. Obviously if I think a player is probably a slight winner then I can't be as sure which side of breakeven he's going to be, especially if he has tilt leaks, though I can make guesses, and I think the guesses, depending on how much info I have (like more hours and talking more obv more accuracy), could be more accurate than 1000-2000 hours of results.

This is intuitive though, I suppose. Hard to have proof about this sort of thing.

I feel like when you've gone up and down and up and down stakes for almost 10 years, you get a grasp on these things, and even just being able to tell if someone can make it as a pro.
A lot of the very good players theoretically I know often have horrendous tilt/boredom/punt habits that prevent them from winning or winning as much as they should in certain games. Guys who know ranges and sizings very well who don't adjust to the exploitative nature of live games (i.e. some online guys) may struggle. I think mental game stuff is somewhat overlooked here.

I know a guy who used to be one of the best 500z crushers in the world who is one of the losingest players in a 2/5 PPPoker NLH game - granted he's probably just gambling for fun now instead of for a living, but still. Adjustment is key.
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Old 01-05-2018, 11:17 PM   #20434
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I think Sol Reader's point is that a game can change and get tougher quicker than the speed at which a person can get meaningful results?
That's a big part of it, yeah. I think you can know get an idea of how a person plays by witnessing their current play, and listening to them talk about hands right now, even if not an entirely clear picture, but when you get previous results, well, that could mean anything. Results just mean you've won money, it doesn't show you how the person plays.

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A lot of the very good players theoretically I know often have horrendous tilt/boredom/punt habits that prevent them from winning or winning as much as they should in certain games.
That's true, but I did qualify that tilt is a factor, and why I said playing with someone for a bunch of hours, not just talking hands. Also fair enough, you might catch them on a good day, perhaps let me change that by saying, someone I've played 10 sessions with over 10-20 hours total, and whatever, let's say this is a bit low, someone you've played 15 sessions with over 30 hours would be ample, or you can go higher, whatever. It's obviously not a static barrier where once you've played this much with a person you know or don't know. If the player is good you need fewer hours, if a player is marginal you might never know, or need a huge sample.

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Guys who know ranges and sizings very well who don't adjust to the exploitative nature of live games (i.e. some online guys) may struggle.
I EXTREMELY doubt that. People don't actually know ranges and sizings if they can't adapt; they're just playing cookie cutter "you do this in this spot hurr durrr" that's not understanding ranges.

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I know a guy who used to be one of the best 500z crushers in the world who is one of the losingest players in a 2/5 PPPoker NLH game
I don't know this guy, but nobody who actually crushes 2/5 the last 2 years could be a losing player in a live game. They might not adjust maximally, but there's actually no way he can't beat live games. Like at worst they play like an extreme nit and don't win a ton, but there's actually no chance. In fact, not even a player who broke even at 2/5 zoom over large sample would be able to lose unless they are not playing seriously.

Like quite a few of 5/10 or even 10/20 NL players wouldn't be able to beat 1/2 zoom at more than 2bb/100 without extensive studying. 2/5 is a lot tougher than 1/2.

Live players don't even know basic cbet sizings on common boards in single raised pots, and not just fish or bad regs, even otherwise good regs don't know a lot of this stuff. It's fine live, but it's not fundamentally sound.
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Old 01-06-2018, 01:17 AM   #20435
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That's a big part of it, yeah. I think you can know get an idea of how a person plays by witnessing their current play, and listening to them talk about hands right now, even if not an entirely clear picture, but when you get previous results, well, that could mean anything. Results just mean you've won money, it doesn't show you how the person plays.



That's true, but I did qualify that tilt is a factor, and why I said playing with someone for a bunch of hours, not just talking hands. Also fair enough, you might catch them on a good day, perhaps let me change that by saying, someone I've played 10 sessions with over 10-20 hours total, and whatever, let's say this is a bit low, someone you've played 15 sessions with over 30 hours would be ample, or you can go higher, whatever. It's obviously not a static barrier where once you've played this much with a person you know or don't know. If the player is good you need fewer hours, if a player is marginal you might never know, or need a huge sample.



I EXTREMELY doubt that. People don't actually know ranges and sizings if they can't adapt; they're just playing cookie cutter "you do this in this spot hurr durrr" that's not understanding ranges.



I don't know this guy, but nobody who actually crushes 2/5 the last 2 years could be a losing player in a live game. They might not adjust maximally, but there's actually no way he can't beat live games. Like at worst they play like an extreme nit and don't win a ton, but there's actually no chance. In fact, not even a player who broke even at 2/5 zoom over large sample would be able to lose unless they are not playing seriously.

Like quite a few of 5/10 or even 10/20 NL players wouldn't be able to beat 1/2 zoom at more than 2bb/100 without extensive studying. 2/5 is a lot tougher than 1/2.

Live players don't even know basic cbet sizings on common boards in single raised pots, and not just fish or bad regs, even otherwise good regs don't know a lot of this stuff. It's fine live, but it's not fundamentally sound.
Obv if you're an online crusher, you'll be able to win at live games. I'm saying initially there's a learning curve and can take a while for people to adjust to a completely different game. Optimal sizing in a 500z pool is going to be far from optimal in a 4-way bloated live pot. Not uncommon for online cash players to play very suboptimally for first couple hundred hours give or take til they sus things out.
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Old 01-06-2018, 01:28 AM   #20436
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I thought we're talking about beating the game, not beating the game "optimally". Of course, live poker stuff is going to take a lifetime to learn, but it's not like online players don't know how to exploit, I feel like that's a pretty weird assumption, if that's true why would online players use HUDs at all? HUDs are inherently about exploitation.

Also, like, not explo sizing is going to lose you EV, but your bb/100 winrate using a GTO focused strategy is still going to be extremely high vs bad players, higher than most of the winrates posted by most live regs.

People just got into their heads at some point that GTO means cannot be beaten, but also can't win much, and that's not even remotely true. Libratus absolutely crushed the human players, and they're some of the best players that exist in NLHE.

Nobody knows GTO etc blah blah blah, I'm just saying people shouldn't use these assumptions. People who know equilibrium strategies have the best tools available to knowing how to exploit because they have better handle on what is exploitable.

The online regs of today are very different from the regs 2 years ago, or 4 years ago, or 6 years ago. Learning for online players accelerate at an extremely rapid pace.
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Old 01-06-2018, 01:40 AM   #20437
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

i thought we were talking about a 1/2 player with zero experience playing cash games trying to build up a roll ???

everyone playing their C game tonight
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Old 01-06-2018, 01:44 AM   #20438
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Yeah idk why people are bringing up online players with 2/5z experience.

If you have no experience, you should learn playing online and save up money and watch a lot of videos in the meantime. That's pretty much it. Playing any significant amount of poker before proper studying is a waste of time.
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Old 01-06-2018, 02:42 AM   #20439
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What's the minimum required number of hands of live poker before one is able to say they're a winning player?

Is there even such a number or does the game change faster than you can acquire a meaningful sample size?
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Old 01-06-2018, 02:55 AM   #20440
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
I mean, there are ways to know if you're a winner other than results, and tbh results are one of the worse ways to know if you're a winner anyway.

And anyway I'm not suggesting OP can be sure he's a winning poker, just saying the suggestion is entirely reasonable based on the assumptions. It's the assumptions that need to be questioned.
There might be other ways to tell if you are good player ...but there is only one way to tell if you are a winning player...and that is WINNING MONEY.

You could be a good player and still not win.....but being a winning player requires winning.
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Old 01-06-2018, 03:07 AM   #20441
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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There might be other ways to tell if you are good player ...but there is only one way to tell if you are a winning player...and that is WINNING MONEY.

You could be a good player and still not win.....but being a winning player requires winning.
You’re right, but that’s not what people mean when they say “winning player.” They mean a player utilizing a strategy which expects to win money. Actually winning money is ironically not a great way to evaluate whether one is a winning player, unless the sample size is large.

Borrowing money for gambling is not as bad as most claim, but it can be disastrous for a subset of people.

It’s just like borrowing money for a business venture. No one looks down on someone for borrowing money for starting a business from a solid business plan. The only difference between this and borrowing to gamble is that there are many people who do not abpproaxh gambling in an intelligent way.
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Old 01-06-2018, 04:49 AM   #20442
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There might be other ways to tell if you are good player ...but there is only one way to tell if you are a winning player...and that is WINNING MONEY.

You could be a good player and still not win.....but being a winning player requires winning.
Not sure if serious.

We're talking about being a winning player in terms of expectation, not historic results. The latter is entirely useless on its own, only useful as an indicator towards the former, we only care about whether we're likely to make money.

Quote:
It’s just like borrowing money for a business venture. No one looks down on someone for borrowing money for starting a business from a solid business plan. The only difference between this and borrowing to gamble is that there are many people who do not abpproaxh gambling in an intelligent way.
Exactly. With the right person, I'd not just lend or stake money for them to play, I'd be willing to pay them an hourly to study poker/get coached by me, if they sign on a minimal hours and so on.
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Old 01-06-2018, 07:13 AM   #20443
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by setintostraight View Post
What's the minimum required number of hands of live poker before one is able to say they're a winning player?

Is there even such a number or does the game change faster than you can acquire a meaningful sample size?
A thousand hours live is generally a good starting point
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Old 01-06-2018, 09:47 AM   #20444
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If your a total novice then it might take 1000+ hours of logged results to know whether or not you are a winning player, but if you are an experienced player its different. Id be willing to bet that if I moved to a completely new location where the games played differently or if I moved up in stakes, that I could tell in 100 hours or less if I was a winning player in THAT game.

In the end all we care about is winning money and your very long term results are the best gauge but a good player can tell in the short term if he is over matched or no matter what his short term results are.
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Old 01-06-2018, 11:00 AM   #20445
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gonna disagree because even being optimistic thatís 30,000 hands which online poker shows is not enough of a sample

i agree with Sol that it basically comes down to whether youíre good or not, regardless of results

the sample iím currently tracking starts with my return to live poker 6 months after my first 350 hours as a absolute breakeven player beginning Oct Ď15

iím +5.5bb/hr over 1550 hours but i donít think thatís very good for the 1/2 and 1/3 games i play and feel iím on the low end of variance for my skill, and thatís only an optimistic 45k hands, so a little more than double the hours would be the 100k milestone but then how much have the games changed since the start of this period and finishing that sample?
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Old 01-06-2018, 11:20 AM   #20446
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I don't know why people are so averse to borrowing money if you're a winning player. The poster did say 100% or 90%+ certainty. People borrow money to go to school with way less certainty of getting a job than that.
If something happened to me and I suddenly had zero dollars - I would have no problem whatsoever taking out a loan and playing. I know the same holds true for you. However, we are not talking about us here. We are talking about people asking for advice on an internet forum.

I have been in this profession for a really long time and I have seen some of the craziest sht happen to people when their backs are against the wall. Normally sane people doing completely insane stuff. This combined with people constantly overestimating their abilities is a very very bad combo.

I believe that people who are ok to borrow money to gambool with are in reality the ones who are least likely to ever really need to (not talking about selling action to play bigger, I'm talking about borrowing $ cuz u aint got none)- and that is a very small subset of professional players.

If you need to ask if borrowing money to play poker is a good idea - it aint
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Old 01-06-2018, 11:33 AM   #20447
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gonna disagree because even being optimistic thatís 30,000 hands which online poker shows is not enough of a sample

i agree with Sol that it basically comes down to whether youíre good or not, regardless of results

the sample iím currently tracking starts with my return to live poker 6 months after my first 350 hours as a absolute breakeven player beginning Oct Ď15

iím +5.5bb/hr over 1550 hours but i donít think thatís very good for the 1/2 and 1/3 games i play and feel iím on the low end of variance for my skill, and thatís only an optimistic 45k hands, so a little more than double the hours would be the 100k milestone but then how much have the games changed since the start of this period and finishing that sample?
So you are confidant that you are a winning player even though you feel like your results arent your true long term win rate, right? That's what I meant.

Variance can cause your results to be below what you skill level should be producing for a long time, but if you are experienced you should still know whether you are a winning player pretty quickly.
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Old 01-06-2018, 11:43 AM   #20448
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Donít borrow money to play poker. Get a job.

The comparison to borrowing money to start a business is ridiculous.

Donít lend your brother in law $10k to start a landscaping business.
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Old 01-06-2018, 11:48 AM   #20449
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Donít borrow money to play poker. Get a job.

The comparison to borrowing money to start a business is ridiculous.

Donít lend your brother in law $10k to start a landscaping business.
If I told you how much money my brother in law owes me for a business loan gone bad, you would throw up.
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Old 01-06-2018, 07:04 PM   #20450
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Agree with squid.

I've thought a lot about staking low-stakes live players, but its just a massive paradox. If theyre a good player with no money, that means they have big life leaks that makes it too risky. If theyre a good player with money, they dont need you to stake them. The only scenerio is a good player who happened to have incurred an emergency expense to wipe out their savings -- a rare thing.

ik it wasn't about staking but points remain the same
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