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Old 12-28-2017, 01:27 AM   #20301
Big Perm
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think if I tried to calculate mine this month, my 'puter would sh*t.
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Old 12-28-2017, 02:07 AM   #20302
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Mine is 212b, no idea if that's hour or /100 or per session etc.
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Old 12-28-2017, 03:21 AM   #20303
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My Std. Dev. is 115.84BB playing 1/2 & 1/3. My 3 largest losses: $1041, $947 & 757
3 largest wins: $1011, $872, $787. It's rare when my session runs longer than 6 hrs.
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Old 12-28-2017, 03:27 AM   #20304
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Can anyone confirm whether Poker Agent for Android's Stdev is per hour, per session, per 100? I want to run some sims but still have no idea how to interpret the stdev figure it gives me.
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Old 12-28-2017, 03:35 AM   #20305
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by meale View Post
Can anyone confirm whether Poker Agent for Android's Stdev is per hour, per session, per 100? I want to run some sims but still have no idea how to interpret the stdev figure it gives me.
My guess is that the figure you quoted is per session.

+200bb per 100 or hourly puts you in the most maniacal of the maniacs
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Old 12-28-2017, 04:27 AM   #20306
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My guess is that the figure you quoted is per session.

+200bb per 100 or hourly puts you in the most maniacal of the maniacs
I guess so too. So it'd be pretty tough to convert that to BB/100 then? Find AVG session length then divide for hands per hour I'm guessing?
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Old 12-28-2017, 08:23 AM   #20307
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That's how I'd go about it. Though I have recently learned that the std dev per hour feature in the tracking apps is basically useless unless all of your session lengths are about the same or you upload your stack size every hour.

Internet doin me a learn today
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Old 12-28-2017, 08:34 AM   #20308
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

73BB/hr thru 2319 hours of 1/3.
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Old 12-28-2017, 08:49 AM   #20309
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That's how I'd go about it. Though I have recently learned that the std dev per hour feature in the tracking apps is basically useless unless all of your session lengths are about the same or you upload your stack size every hour.

Internet doin me a learn today
Ye true that, I guess all my sessions are like 6-10hours on avg, could prob get something close I guess.
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Old 12-28-2017, 09:01 AM   #20310
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73BB/hr thru 2319 hours of 1/3.
Wow youve made over 500k at 1/3? Are you God?
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Old 12-28-2017, 09:03 AM   #20311
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Wow youve made over 500k at 1/3? Are you God?
That's his stdev...
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Old 12-28-2017, 03:40 PM   #20312
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LOL. Yes, stdev/hr.

Reminds me of a funny story. So, we're playing one night at the local casino. A guy who used to play a decent amount then moved away was back in town and he asked me how much I won for some reason "like, per hour," he said.

I told him "not sure."

His response?

"I make $76/hour."

Everyone at the table is dubious. People are questioning, calling b.s., etc. I left a bit later and I guess he showed a guy at the table his graph, which included a $65k bad beat jackpot score.

Was quite humorous.
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Old 12-28-2017, 08:56 PM   #20313
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I consider standard deviation to be a highly unreliable statistic.

First, at least one of the popular apps does not calculate it correctly. I don't recall which one, but it's been brought up in this thread multiple times.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, data collection methods have potential to be heavily biased. For example, if a particular player prefers to leave when he is near his EV, he will have a calculated standard deviation significantly lower than his actual standard deviation since he will observe many "low variance" sessions. If another player implements a stop loss and stop win of 2 buyins, his calculated standard deviation may be higher than the true value since he has more observed high variance sessions.

There is a formula for calculating standard deviation from variable session lengths, but it only works if your quitting strategy is not influenced by your results or expectation at the table. This is very hard to do as a human unless you are very disciplined.

If you always play for a predetermined amount of time and stick to it then this formula should be pretty accurate.

This is the formula:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...88&postcount=4
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Old 12-28-2017, 10:51 PM   #20314
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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
I consider standard deviation to be a highly unreliable statistic.

First, at least one of the popular apps does not calculate it correctly. I don't recall which one, but it's been brought up in this thread multiple times.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, data collection methods have potential to be heavily biased. For example, if a particular player prefers to leave when he is near his EV, he will have a calculated standard deviation significantly lower than his actual standard deviation since he will observe many "low variance" sessions. If another player implements a stop loss and stop win of 2 buyins, his calculated standard deviation may be higher than the true value since he has more observed high variance sessions.

There is a formula for calculating standard deviation from variable session lengths, but it only works if your quitting strategy is not influenced by your results or expectation at the table. This is very hard to do as a human unless you are very disciplined.

If you always play for a predetermined amount of time and stick to it then this formula should be pretty accurate.

This is the formula:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...88&postcount=4
Legend ty
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Old 12-29-2017, 02:55 AM   #20315
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm up about 12k at 1/2 & 1/3 in the past 600 hours. So that's crushing the game? I think they're right about me moving up stakes before I sustain a higher hourly rate. To me I don't think it matters the stakes because my mental mathematics are fundamentally sound. I feel like if I had started playing with a larger bankroll, rather than short buying and whatnot to start up, that I'd have a higher hourly rate. I also feel like my hourly rate would increase slightly if I relocated to Las Vegas. I think it's quite possible for me to beat the game at $35/hour over the next 200 hours.
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Old 12-29-2017, 03:15 AM   #20316
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Sure, move up.
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Old 12-29-2017, 11:04 AM   #20317
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Originally Posted by jamesmccabe000 View Post
I'm up about 12k at 1/2 & 1/3 in the past 600 hours. So that's crushing the game? I think they're right about me moving up stakes before I sustain a higher hourly rate. To me I don't think it matters the stakes because my mental mathematics are fundamentally sound. I feel like if I had started playing with a larger bankroll, rather than short buying and whatnot to start up, that I'd have a higher hourly rate. I also feel like my hourly rate would increase slightly if I relocated to Las Vegas. I think it's quite possible for me to beat the game at $35/hour over the next 200 hours.
What percent of those hours are at each stake? Assuming 50/50, that is about 8 bb/ per hour. That is a solid win rate, but not what I would consider crushing.

More importantly though, 600 hours is too small of a sample size.

What gives you the idea win rate would be better in Vegas?

If your bankrolled for it, by all means take shots in the next bigger game. Just don't count on 8/bb per hour over 600 hours guaranteeing similar results in the future.

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Old 12-29-2017, 12:15 PM   #20318
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On standard deviations, last time we had a big discussion on them ITT, most winning players were in the 100bb/hr range, with some very successful players considerably higher, like around 200bb/hr. Meanwhile the only winning players with SDev under 75bb/hr were me and GG, both in the 50s. MikeStar, welcome to the club. IDK what it means, as GG is clearly considerably more tighter than I am, so it's not just a nit thing.

Also, for meale, if you search ITT, bip! gives directions on converting SDev/session into a decent estimate of SDev/hr. It involves square roots, not just a simple division by average session length, but it's way simpler than that link above.
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Old 12-29-2017, 12:21 PM   #20319
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
On standard deviations, last time we had a big discussion on them ITT, most winning players were in the 100bb/hr range, with some very successful players considerably higher, like around 200bb/hr. Meanwhile the only winning players with SDev under 75bb/hr were me and GG, both in the 50s. MikeStar, welcome to the club. IDK what it means, as GG is clearly considerably more tighter than I am, so it's not just a nit thing.
Im not a math expert so I wont try to interpret what this means other than to say that if I could have the same win rate with a 55BB/hr StnDev or a 125BB/hr StvDev. its pretty obvious which one I would prefer.

Lower StnDev means smaller swings and less big losing streaks. It would be interesting to see peoples StnDev/Winrate.

Of course its also possible that I could increase my win rate by pushing smaller edges which would also cause a higher StnDev but if my win rate was higher it would probably be worth it. Personally I think I would just increase my variance with no increase in win rate, but I could easily be wrong.
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Old 12-29-2017, 12:23 PM   #20320
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@jamesmccabe, where are you located now? For most of the US, LLSNL games are softer outside of Vegas, as grinders almost all move to Vegas, not to Iowa, or wherever. As long as the economy is big enough to always have a game, and the player pool is big enough that you're not likely to have enough regs figure out your game to kill your action, I'd stay away from Vegas, if I were you.
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Old 12-29-2017, 12:57 PM   #20321
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Dead fish PM'd me asking what my sd was. I use poker income pro. I always check the time b4 I start and when my session is over I simply click add a completed session. I always have my buy in as zero. If I win money (950 for example) I will put 950 in the cashed out part. If I lose money (950 for example). I will put 950 in the buy in portion and zero for cashed out.

I personally do not give a rats ass about my sd - and did not purchase this product for that function. But I am sure this is why it gives me the obscenely low SD of 176$/hr
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Old 12-29-2017, 11:35 PM   #20322
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https://imgur.com/a/ru03m
Unfortunately I have only logged 285 hours so far (in the past 3 months) at the rate of 17bb/hr. I wanted to wait until I got to 500 hours to post, but whatever happy new year. Looking to log 2k hours in 2018. Not sure if/when I’ll be moving up to 5/10. That game is kinda dead on the east coast anyway.

Last edited by ljfe; 12-29-2017 at 11:42 PM.
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Old 12-31-2017, 06:12 AM   #20323
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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
Dead fish PM'd me asking what my sd was. I use poker income pro. I always check the time b4 I start and when my session is over I simply click add a completed session. I always have my buy in as zero. If I win money (950 for example) I will put 950 in the cashed out part. If I lose money (950 for example). I will put 950 in the buy in portion and zero for cashed out.

I personally do not give a rats ass about my sd - and did not purchase this product for that function. But I am sure this is why it gives me the obscenely low SD of 176$/hr
squid loves keepin' life simple

Me, well I pause it when I leave the table & I track my tips to keep a grip on my overhead. I also don't tip from stack. So, at the end of the session, I add the total tips to my buy-in amount before cashing out.

About 8 months ago, when I was still tipping from my stack, I had a session where I was doing well & was up a good bit & took a hit, but my stack was still above the max. Later I doubled up through a player who had me easily covered. Problem was I had tipped the dealers $16 already, so that was $16 I didn't win & now tipping the dealers cost me another $16 * [my equity long-term] which I think was around 68% going into the river.

Damn I'm cheap!
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Old 12-31-2017, 07:04 AM   #20324
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My Poker Income Pro had my standard deviation at over $500,000 per hour...I don't think that's accurate...

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Old 12-31-2017, 12:56 PM   #20325
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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
squid loves keepin' life simple

Me, well I pause it when I leave the table & I track my tips to keep a grip on my overhead. I also don't tip from stack. So, at the end of the session, I add the total tips to my buy-in amount before cashing out.

About 8 months ago, when I was still tipping from my stack, I had a session where I was doing well & was up a good bit & took a hit, but my stack was still above the max. Later I doubled up through a player who had me easily covered. Problem was I had tipped the dealers $16 already, so that was $16 I didn't win & now tipping the dealers cost me another $16 * [my equity long-term] which I think was around 68% going into the river.

Damn I'm cheap!
You don't wear hoodie (up), shades and have Beats firmly plastered to your ears as well do you?
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