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Old 12-15-2017, 01:37 PM   #20201
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My 1/3 NL overall (day / hourly / hours):

Mon $15.45 393
Tue $25.63 345
Wed $9.66 221
Thu $29.58 328
Fri $23.38 368
Sat $19.52 790
Sun $21.53 1263

Overall, I'm pretty convinced it's just lol sample size and noise; I mean, there's no way a random Wed game is 3x as difficult as a random Thur game when it truth it's the *exact* same game. I don't believe it's a coincidence that the day I have the most hours in (and thus largest sample size) is closest to my overall winrate of $21.03.

GI'llpostagaininmy5thlifetimetoconfirmG
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Old 12-15-2017, 02:16 PM   #20202
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Nice results squid! Interesting how the first 1k hours are about $90/hr and the last 2k are closer to $38/hr. Would you attribute the difference to sheer variance or games getting tougher?
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Old 12-15-2017, 02:38 PM   #20203
gobbledygeek
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My overall giraffe also has a pretty good start out of the blocks relative to the rest of my giraffe. And if I recall Duke's does too (he posted his a year or two ago, where if I recall like ~50% of his overall profits came in the first ~25% of his hours to date).

I'm attributing mine to fish-on-a-heater-in-good-games.

GcluelessfishonaheaterG
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Old 12-15-2017, 02:41 PM   #20204
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niether - sessions have gotten significantly shorter. Also had a really really bad stretch where I won 14$ per hour for close to 400 hours.
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Old 12-15-2017, 02:43 PM   #20205
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Ah right, it's a sessions giraffe and not an hours giraffe.

GIwouldkillfor$14/hourthisyearG
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Old 12-15-2017, 03:47 PM   #20206
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kudos to squid!!

imo, squid might be the best I've ever seen at watching everything important at a table without it being obvious that he is watching everything. I'm guessing this is a good skill to have.
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Old 12-15-2017, 04:01 PM   #20207
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Conclusion: everybody has meaningless sample sizes and how you run in big pots has an enormous effect on small sample size win rates
Bingo
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Old 12-15-2017, 05:02 PM   #20208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
My most profitable days of 2017:

1. Sunday
2. Wednesday
3. Monday

My least profitable days of 2017:

1. Saturday
2. Friday

Conclusion: everybody has meaningless sample sizes and how you run in big pots has an enormous effect on small sample size win rates
That's a bit of an exaggeration. Do you really believe all of these sample sizes are so meaningless that you cant tell who is playing well and who isnt when you see sample sizes of 500-2000+ hours?

I agree that you need a massive amount of hours if your goal is to find out your true win rate within a few %, especially if you play in deep games and play lots of huge pots, but after a couple 1000 hours I think we can tell who is "really good", "above avg", "average", "below average", and "terrible". These sample sizes are not even close to meaningless.

My win rate hasnt changed much at all after the first 1000 hours or so.
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Old 12-15-2017, 05:04 PM   #20209
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He's talking about comparing days of the week and time of day. Where most people have sub 500 hour samples collected over multiple *years* of changing game conditions.
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Old 12-15-2017, 05:24 PM   #20210
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Very nice results squid
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Old 12-15-2017, 05:26 PM   #20211
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
That's a bit of an exaggeration. Do you really believe all of these sample sizes are so meaningless that you cant tell who is playing well and who isnt when you see sample sizes of 500-2000+ hours?

I agree that you need a massive amount of hours if your goal is to find out your true win rate within a few %, especially if you play in deep games and play lots of huge pots, but after a couple 1000 hours I think we can tell who is "really good", "above avg", "average", "below average", and "terrible". These sample sizes are not even close to meaningless.

My win rate hasnt changed much at all after the first 1000 hours or so.
Highly doubt Squiddy's Wednesday game is 3x as tough as his Thursday game, and yet that's what his 400-500 hour sample size of each suggests, as does his 400 hour squid skid where he ran at 1/4 of his overall winrate. Even scarier when you realize ~500 hours might be a decent yearly sample size for a rec player (I typically play in the ~550 hour range myself).

If anything, I think these differences do tend to show how lol meaningless 1000 hour segments can be (and this is coming from someone who ran about exactly the same in my first 1000 hours as I did in my second 1000 hours). Not saying you can't tell a little something from results over this type of period, but getting much more accurate than "good" vs "bad" vs "meh" might be more difficult than you think.

Gwait,it'snotWednesdayNightCokeNight,isit?G
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Old 12-15-2017, 05:52 PM   #20212
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
He's talking about comparing days of the week and time of day. Where most people have sub 500 hour samples collected over multiple *years* of changing game conditions.
Yeah, I agree with that. My best day of the week is Wednesday and by a long shot. However, anyone who has played a good amount of poker during the week from 10A-4P and has also played a good deal of poker after 8P just about any day of the week should be able to see a drastic difference in skill level, regardless of their results.
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Old 12-15-2017, 06:05 PM   #20213
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

GG I consider myself a pretty regular player with more hours than most 'recs', and my yearly volume has been:

2008 - partial year not included in average 175.2 from July/August on
2009 460.2
2010 617.3
2011 647.4
2012 561.9
2013 401.6
2014 594.9
2015 547.6
2016 707.6
2017 610.9

For a 572 hour/year average.

So independent of the winrate discussion, yes it can be a scary thought how long it takes to accrue significant samples in different rooms or on different days.
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Old 12-15-2017, 06:13 PM   #20214
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Angrist, would be interesting to know your yearly winrates for example of differences during these ~600 hour sample sizes; my guess would be they are all over the map?

My yearly hourly totals aren't quite as much as Angrists, but similar, with my worst year hourly being less than 1/4 my best year hourly (and coming just 2 years later).

Gseeyouatthefinishline,imoG
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Old 12-15-2017, 06:40 PM   #20215
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Yea, they're all over the map. These numbers include a variety of games and tournaments, including me sucking at PLO when I started playing that too.

2008 - (partial) 175.2 $17.78/hr
2009 460.2 $7.20/hr
2010 617.3 $1.11/hr
2011 647.4 $12.21/hr
2012 561.9 -$4.47/hr
2013 401.6 -$2.61/hr
2014 594.9 $18.74/hr
2015 547.6 $2.00/hr
2016 707.6 $9.51/hr
2017 610.9 $11.57/hr

I ran well to start, which helped. But I had some serious leaks which showed up mostly in 2010 and even 2011, as IIRC there were a couple of big wins that skewed 2011 up. 2012 I ran into a really nasty downswing. 2013 actually started well and got worse and worse in terms of both winrate and volume near the end as I was finishing a PhD and nearly killed myself from lack of sleep while doing it. No sooner did I defend than my game improved immediately.

I don't have the full breakdown here but my $1/2 NLHE numbers have actually become more consistent and steeper after defending. The PLO has really messed with my overall results/stats.
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Old 12-15-2017, 06:53 PM   #20216
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
I haz the olds and do not know how to poast up screen shots on the interwebz. DCFT has kindly offered to post up some screenshots for me. They will be pix of my last 3k hours. As I have stated b4 I have well over 10k since BF however most of my records are in storage and when I eventually retrieve em I'll input them and poast that up (they are on the other side of the country). That being said the graph will look pretty much like this one.

I am no longer putting in big volume. After BF I told my wife I had about 2 years of live poker left in me. Here we are close to 7 years after the fact and I am still slogging away. Most likely I will continue to play but I honestly have zero intention of ever playing more than 1k/ year ever again.

That being said as you can see by my hrs per days of the week screen shot I do not really cherry pick my days - it is quite balanced. I seldom play beyond 10 pm and am frequently in the casino by 2 in the afternoon - not exactly prime time stuff.

Will do my best to answer questions once DCFT posts up shots
Nice job, Squid! Awesome to see such volume in one graph! And obviously the results are frickin awesome. It will be sick to see the 10k sample just because it will be the largest live sample I've ever seen. Thanks for posting!
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Old 12-15-2017, 07:05 PM   #20217
gobbledygeek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Yea, they're all over the map. These numbers include a variety of games and tournaments, including me sucking at PLO when I started playing that too.

2008 - (partial) 175.2 $17.78/hr
2009 460.2 $7.20/hr
2010 617.3 $1.11/hr
2011 647.4 $12.21/hr
2012 561.9 -$4.47/hr
2013 401.6 -$2.61/hr
2014 594.9 $18.74/hr
2015 547.6 $2.00/hr
2016 707.6 $9.51/hr
2017 610.9 $11.57/hr

I ran well to start, which helped. But I had some serious leaks which showed up mostly in 2010 and even 2011, as IIRC there were a couple of big wins that skewed 2011 up. 2012 I ran into a really nasty downswing. 2013 actually started well and got worse and worse in terms of both winrate and volume near the end as I was finishing a PhD and nearly killed myself from lack of sleep while doing it. No sooner did I defend than my game improved immediately.

I don't have the full breakdown here but my $1/2 NLHE numbers have actually become more consistent and steeper after defending. The PLO has really messed with my overall results/stats.
Yeah, too bad it's not all 1/2 NL, but still shows the huge lol differences between fairly "large live" (lol) segments. Are you the meh 2.5 bb/hr loser you were in 2011, or the big 9 bb/r winner you were in 2014 (over ~600 hour samples each)? You're both (ok, fair enough, I realize including PLO in this has probably really driven this outta wack, but still). Good luck figuring out which one you are randomly looking at one segment. My guess is if we ever played enough lifetime hours we'd have similar lol differences between even bigger sample sizes (like 1000 hour segments).

Gquitwhileyou'reahead,ldoG
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Old 12-16-2017, 07:03 AM   #20218
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Also had a really really bad stretch where I won 14$ per hour for close to 400 hours.
Very sick #sabrbeat being that this is probably better than 90% of players ITT
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Old 12-16-2017, 07:22 AM   #20219
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

@squid What is the 2/5BI cap?
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Old 12-16-2017, 11:01 AM   #20220
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Meals it’s 2/5 200-1000
Rake-10% capped @5 with a bbj of 2. They rake pre and round up. So if someone raises to 20 and I 3! And every one folds they take 5+2
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Old 12-16-2017, 11:18 AM   #20221
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Meals it’s 2/5 200-1000
Rake-10% capped @5 with a bbj of 2. They rake pre and round up. So if someone raises to 20 and I 3! And every one folds they take 5+2
That's cool. Thanks.
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Old 12-16-2017, 12:00 PM   #20222
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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
Meals it’s 2/5 200-1000
Rake-10% capped @5 with a bbj of 2. They rake pre and round up. So if someone raises to 20 and I 3! And every one folds they take 5+2
That sucks
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Old 12-16-2017, 12:25 PM   #20223
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Originally Posted by soxfan43 View Post
Nice job, Squid! Awesome to see such volume in one graph! And obviously the results are frickin awesome. It will be sick to see the 10k sample just because it will be the largest live sample I've ever seen. Thanks for posting!
thanks mang...Ima do my best to get that sht outta storage and get that giraffe up

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
That sucks

agree the rake pre is brutal. It is really really expensive

house policy for a raise pre and the blinds folding is 1+1. They take the second bbj buck at 20

so if there is a limper and i iso the policy is 2+2 (math is sb2 + bb5 +limper 5 +my 5 --- they count that in the math that when I raise and all fold makes 17 round up to 20 and u get 2+2)
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Old 12-16-2017, 12:31 PM   #20224
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Still infinitely better than 10% $15 cap with shorter effective stacks and no BBJ. :')
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Old 12-16-2017, 12:53 PM   #20225
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Meals it’s 2/5 200-1000
Rake-10% capped @5 with a bbj of 2. They rake pre and round up. So if someone raises to 20 and I 3! And every one folds they take 5+2
This gives me the sads
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