[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances - Page 803 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr

Less than 0 (losing)

5 6.41%

0-2.5

0 0%

2.5-5

6 7.69%

5-7.5

8 10.26%

7.5-10

15 19.23%

10+

26 33.33%

Not enough sample size/I don't know

18 23.08%

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12-02-2017 , 02:51 PM

#20051

BlueSpade84

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 330

Nearing 100 hrs live play after an extended break from the game due to family (new kids). Its taken me about 3 months to put in this amount of play as I have been typically playing only one evening per week.

Stakes: $1/$3 NL -- $300 Max buy in
Hours: 87
Total Win/Loss: $4,909
Win Rate: $56.43/hr -- 18.81BB/hr

Completely unsustainable I think, but it feels good to start running well. Now that I've got back in the game, I'm targeting 50hr/month. However, having some positive short term results also helps convince that wife that yes, this game is beatable and I believe I will beat it.

Quote

12-02-2017 , 07:51 PM

#20052

soxfan43

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 219

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueSpade84

Solid results! Try to mix in a $2/5 shot when the game looks good. I constantly suggest this to my solid 1/2-1/3 buddies.

Quote

12-03-2017 , 12:04 AM

#20053

papatango123

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 26

Quote:

Originally Posted by ljfe

I think it might be depending on your skill level. Can you please post your graph?

this is my 2/5 graph yes its $ not £ i played all of october/november the last 2 years 50% is 6pm-2am shift the rest is 10am-6pm shift

these are my 1/2 uncapped games from northern england results in £
unsure wether these are good and sustainable.
graph of 1/2 is below

Quote

12-03-2017 , 12:41 AM

#20054

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,514

You have a couple of insane heaters in that 2/5 graph. Results you've seen so far probably aren't sustainable, but you look to be a solid winner even without those.

Your 1/2 results are very nice, and a nice big sample. That looks like a very good 1/2 game. What kind of effective stacks do you usually see?

Quote

12-03-2017 , 01:10 AM

#20055

papatango123

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 26

the 1/2 games i play in are fairly deep generally stacks range from 200-1.5k with there probably being 3 or 4 with 1k + i always cover everyone . and probably 30% of that volume is in a semi private game where missisipi straddling is allowed so plays bigger.

Quote

12-03-2017 , 04:56 AM

#20056

meale

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 9,768

Graph is confusing as hell. Here I was thinking this was a 200 hour sample :')

Quote

12-03-2017 , 12:31 PM

#20057

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,514

Right axis is pretty clearly sessions, imo.

Quote

12-03-2017 , 12:43 PM

#20058

meale

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 9,768

It's not clear at all, clearly. And no one measures winnings in terms of sessions.

Quote

12-03-2017 , 12:57 PM

#20059

OvertlySexual

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,091

Quote:

Originally Posted by meale

It's not clear at all, clearly. And no one measures winnings in terms of sessions.

Those charts cannot do an x axis containing hours because people track winnings by session by session not hour by hour. The other alternative is over time, which can be more misleading.

it's clearly sessions.

Quote

12-03-2017 , 01:29 PM

#20060

johnnyBuz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

confirmed clearly

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12-03-2017 , 01:29 PM

#20061

homerdash

banned

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 6,062

can’t say i’ve been doing it recently but if you are truly serious business about tracking and data i would take notes of stack size each down and/or note every vpip hand

Quote

12-03-2017 , 01:32 PM

#20062

johnny_on_the_spot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 11,608

Quote:

Originally Posted by homerdash

can’t say i’ve been doing it recently but if you are truly serious business about tracking and data i would take notes of stack size each down and/or note every vpip hand

Sounds like overkill. Most would have to do this for years to see statistically significant data

Quote

12-03-2017 , 01:46 PM

#20063

homerdash

banned

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 6,062

it would create a live giraffe closest to online tracking ones

Quote

12-03-2017 , 02:11 PM

#20064

gangip

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,087

Quote:

Originally Posted by homerdash

can’t say i’ve been doing it recently but if you are truly serious business about tracking and data i would take notes of stack size each down and/or note every vpip hand

Heh, iirc my craziest session in 4 years went like this: I started up 400bb, then I lost 1100bb, and then recovered to win something like 20bb on the session. I record by hours - like any sane person! - so it basically showed up as this breakeven blip on my graph despite being involved in over a dozen enormous pots.

The other 5,000+ hours are all really boring sessions though.

Quote

12-03-2017 , 02:46 PM

#20065

Avaritia

Confirmed 2500 hour haver

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 12,248

Quote:

Originally Posted by gangip

The other 5,000+ hours are all really boring sessions though.

Without an undertitle I'm not sure we can be taking claims like this seriously imo

Quote

12-03-2017 , 05:49 PM

#20066

BlueSpade84

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 330

Interesting. Do you guys actually record hour by hour your results at the table?

I have only ever recorded my session stats, which completely washes out those intra-sessions swings. In general I like to keep the table as talkative and light-hearted as I can. I also try to avoid overt expressions of professionalism like taking copious notes on each hand detailing my vpip!

Quote

12-03-2017 , 05:58 PM

#20067

BlueSpade84

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 330

Quote:

Originally Posted by soxfan43

Solid results! Try to mix in a $2/5 shot when the game looks good. I constantly suggest this to my solid 1/2-1/3 buddies.

Thanks soxfan! I will probably start taking a couple 2-5 shots here in a month or two. However, I'm also wanting to make sure I'm rolled for the game before I take too many shots. My 2-5 game plays pretty big as it is an uncapped buy in and it is common for players to be sitting with 3-5k.

When I hit $10k I'll probably start taking some $500 buy in shots at the $2-5 game. Might be sooner than I think, I just had another $1000 session after I posted. Hooray for heaters!

Quote

12-03-2017 , 06:49 PM

#20068

gangip

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,087

Quote:

Originally Posted by Avaritia

Without an undertitle I'm not sure we can be taking claims like this seriously imo

This is fine by me. Without concrete proof I can still imagine it's all just a dream...

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueSpade84

I have only ever recorded my session stats, which completely washes out those intra-sessions swings. In general I like to keep the table as talkative and light-hearted as I can. I also try to avoid overt expressions of professionalism like taking copious notes on each hand detailing my vpip!

This is the correct way to do things.

Quote

12-03-2017 , 06:53 PM

#20069

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,514

I know of no one who records their results hourly. Ot's just that some programs will stretch your y-axis out by the number of hours you entered in for a session, and others just record each session as a standard unit.

Quote

12-03-2017 , 07:43 PM

#20070

meale

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 9,768

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

You've missed what I mean. People measure winrate in BB/hr. X axis should be hours played, not sessions. 200 sessions of AVG length 3 hours is a completely different sample to 8 hour sessions.

Quote

12-03-2017 , 07:52 PM

#20071

Homey D. Clown

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,258

An X-axis with hours played, that's not even possible in that app. Only sessions and dates (i.e. months).

Quote

12-03-2017 , 08:26 PM

#20072

Dizzyqtp

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 7,382

That's why excel is king. $/session graphs aren't too helpful

Quote

12-03-2017 , 08:32 PM

#20073

meale

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 9,768

Ye that's what I'm saying, why would any app not offer winnings by hours?

Quote

12-03-2017 , 08:41 PM

#20074

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

How much is sample variance influenced by the quitting point? Could it be that we are each individually biased towards quitting at certain points and our SD values are not reliable at all? For example, one player may like to quit if he makes break-even, but his session was actually really swingy. Another player may tend to quit at high or low points more often. Can anybody quantify this effect?

Quote

12-04-2017 , 04:59 AM

#20075

Homey D. Clown

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,258

Quote:

Originally Posted by meale

Ye that's what I'm saying, why would any app not offer winnings by hours?

It does, but not in the graph. I wouldn't wanna keep track of my results per hour anyway, I prefer to keep my focus on my game while I'm playing, I see no reason to set an alarm every hour to count my stack.

Quote

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