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Old 11-22-2017, 09:50 PM   #19976
Tiltyjoker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
2,000 hour post:

Graph: https://imgur.com/h7UebId

Results:
1/2NL: +20,726; 823 hrs; 25.20/hr; 12.6bb/hr
1/3NL: +6,434; 91 hrs; 70.96/hr; 23.7bb/hr
2/5NL: +43,421; 849 hrs; 51.12/hr; 10.2bb/hr
T/TNL: +37,779; 210 hrs; 180.26/hr; 18.0bb/hr

2/2PLO: -1,561; 25 hrs; -62.62/hr; -30.8bb/hr
5/5PLO: -290; 3 hrs; -116/hr; -23.20bb/hr

Total: +106,509; 2000 hrs; 53.25/hr; 12.1bb/hr

of course we go on a nice little 9k downswing right into the 2,000th hour, but still really happy with how the last 1,000 hours have gone and was fortunate to run pretty well overall. improved my game a lot, but still lots i hope to be doing better over the next 1,000. i also suck at plo.
Dizzy. Where do you play? Parx?
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Old 11-23-2017, 12:29 PM   #19977
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Correct
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Old 11-28-2017, 04:39 PM   #19978
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Been a while since I've posted, so here's the update for the year.

2017 NHLE (Mostly $1/2) $1404.0 over 220.6 hours, $6.36/hr
2017 Other ($1/2 RxR and PLO) $2031.0 over 348.8 hours, $5.82/hr
2017 All $3435.0 over 569.4 hours, $6.03/hr

Kind of sad results over all this year. $6/hr isn't particularly good.

This year the local home games have gone from running mostly $1/2 NLHE with some big donators to running more and more PLO. We were doing NLHE until 9pm, then RxR until 1a or midnight at first, then it crept earlier and earlier until we're starting with RxR and switching to PLO by 10pm. We've still got a lot of donators that just *love* to pot-pot-pot with almost anything, just because it's been checked to them.

I'm not particularly rolled to fire off multiple $500 bullets in a PLO game, so I've played mostly the nit-pot style preflop and just piled it in for $100-200 with AAxx dingle or double suited and prayed to hold up 4-5 ways. Or see a flop as cheap as possible and re-pot with the nuts and a re-draw. Has not worked out too well for most of the year. $2k downswing in August plus a lot of generally disappointing results. Up until November. Won 9/10 sessions for +$3680 over. So I am now a PLO god. (Never mind the 48 hour sample.)

While I'm not happy with my NLHE numbers either, my volume has been low and a couple of brutal sessions really dragged it down. One $800 pot puts me back to almost $10/hr. We'll see what it looks like in detail at the end of the year.
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Old 11-28-2017, 04:51 PM   #19979
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sick volume. Plo is a game where when you're losing you're pretty confident its unbeatable and when you're winning you wonder why you dont play it all the time.
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Old 11-28-2017, 04:56 PM   #19980
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I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Angrist is my fave poster in this thread, posting thinly positive results over probably longer hours (with the exception of Squiddy?) than anyone else in this thread. Kudos for keeping with it, tracking it, and posting it, no matter how unimpressive the results seem to you.

Gwinning,imoG
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Old 11-28-2017, 05:02 PM   #19981
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I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Angrist is my fave poster in this thread,
+1
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Old 11-28-2017, 05:35 PM   #19982
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Sick volume. Plo is a game where when you're losing you're pretty confident its unbeatable and when you're winning you wonder why you dont play it all the time.
Yea, I guess so. I play a regular home game that's a few minutes away from my house a lot. So I get 4 hours a night 3 nights a week, along with some food and beer. I might be a degen.

PLO has been an interesting and frustrating transition. There are a lot of guys that I know that can find no reason to fold any PLO hand. J722 rainbow? Call a raise and pile it in with a set. Just got stacked for $400? Re-buy for $500, straddle that button, and yell "POT" before looking at your hand when it gets called around to you. Total insanity. But it makes a lot of the PLO literature out there less than applicable.



Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Angrist is my fave poster in this thread, posting thinly positive results over probably longer hours (with the exception of Squiddy?) than anyone else in this thread. Kudos for keeping with it, tracking it, and posting it, no matter how unimpressive the results seem to you.

Gwinning,imoG

Thanks. I'm also my favorite poster

I can't really imaging playing and *not* tracking results. Although the longer I've done it the more I realize how deceptive most of the common sample sizes are, and just how much "luck" is a factor in live poker. There are guys that I know that are just horrendous but they sun-run like sickos for a year or two. Makes me feel better when going a month or two getting beat repeatedly with awful suckouts at least.
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Old 11-28-2017, 05:53 PM   #19983
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Thanks. I'm also my favorite poster

I can't really imaging playing and *not* tracking results. Although the longer I've done it the more I realize how deceptive most of the common sample sizes are, and just how much "luck" is a factor in live poker. There are guys that I know that are just horrendous but they sun-run like sickos for a year or two. Makes me feel better when going a month or two getting beat repeatedly with awful suckouts at least.
I posted this earlier today in my 1000 hours thread, but if just 2 hands in my ~500 hours to date this year went into the win column instead of the loss column (getting in 133bbs+ preflop with AK as a fave), my winrate for the year would be 50% higher than it is.

Course, that's not saying much, since my winrate sucks this year.

Ginb4"what's50%ofzero?"G
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Old 11-28-2017, 06:43 PM   #19984
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Angrist, allow me to boost your self-esteem! This is 80% 1/3, 8-12% 2/5, 8-12% 1/2.

In the ~600 hours prior to my current sample (summer 15-summer 16), I made about 10k for an hourly of about $16. I thought Poker Income had my data backed up, but it didn't so I'm relying on the memory of that beautiful giraffe.

In my last 629 hours (mostly 2017, but some latter part of 2016 in there too), I've made a whopping $2626 for an hourly of $4.18. All that work and it's not even $4.20 dammit. I can't believe it's not worse, it feels so brutal so often.

The real kicker is I've put WAY MORE work into my game during those 629 hours than I had at any time previously. I have a kid due in Feb, so won't get nearly as much volume in now. Oh well.
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Old 11-28-2017, 06:55 PM   #19985
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Oh, I believe it.

I'm up to 5293.9 hours in my log overall now, going back to 7/2/2008 (4392.9 of those are $1/2 NLHE). One of the plots that I generate when I do a real detailed look is a 'trailing winrate' plot, where for every session I pull the results for the previous 100 hours, and 500 hours, then calculate a winrate for that period. (This is all in Matlab because overkill.) The original idea was just to see how much volatility there was over a month or two ... and holy **** is there a lot.

I don't have one handy, but there's easily +-$40-50/hr in 100 hour samples. And to get to your point, a lot of variability in 500 hour samples. There are a few that were even negative. That's a tough stretch to play through.

At the end of the day though, my other primary hobby *costs* me about $20/hr, plus equipment. So this isn't so bad.
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Old 11-28-2017, 06:55 PM   #19986
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Thanks for posting cannabusto!

Just keep in mind: the overwhelmingly vast majority of people who play this game lose money. You're still in the minority / top x%.

Gkeeppluggingaway,imo!G
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Old 11-28-2017, 06:57 PM   #19987
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
At the end of the day though, my other primary hobby *costs* me about $20/hr, plus equipment. So this isn't so bad.
You're forgetting the beer/wings afterwards?

Galsoplayshockey,butdoesn'tdrinkG
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Old 11-28-2017, 07:07 PM   #19988
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Thanks for posting cannabusto!

Just keep in mind: the overwhelmingly vast majority of people who play this game lose money. You're still in the minority / top x%.

Gkeeppluggingaway,imo!G
Yeah, that's what's baffling--top x% to earn $4.18 and it's still brutal. I can't imagine how the losers come back. Maybe it doesn't feel so bad when you're just gamboolin compared to regularly and knowledgeably seeing sizable equity ripped away before your eyes.

It's like anything else in life in that it's relative. The people in the rich suburb don't think they're rich because everyone around them is rich. But it still pains me despite being conscious of that. I'm reading Painless Poker though so hopefully never again
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Old 11-28-2017, 07:31 PM   #19989
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
You're forgetting the beer/wings afterwards?

Galsoplayshockey,butdoesn'tdrinkG
I'd probably be drinking that beer regardless of skating or not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cannabusto View Post
I can't imagine how the losers come back. Maybe it doesn't feel so bad when you're just gamboolin compared to regularly and knowledgeably seeing sizable equity ripped away before your eyes.
A lot of them don't realize that they're losers. They don't keep records, and they remember the big wins more than the loses. Or they keep selective records. Throwing out one or two sessions because they "don't count" can swing your results pretty damn significantly from the red to the green.

Then some just love the rush. They assume that they're going to lose a couple of grand every year (or every month, bless their whale souls) and just play to have fun.

Some of them know they're losing, but believe that it's just because of bad luck, that they can turn it around if the dealer stops ****ing them over. I know a couple like this that I'm somewhat life friendly with and I want to tell them why they keep losing ... but I don't because I'm a horrible degen.
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Old 11-28-2017, 08:01 PM   #19990
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Oh, I believe it.

I'm up to 5293.9 hours in my log overall now, going back to 7/2/2008 (4392.9 of those are $1/2 NLHE). One of the plots that I generate when I do a real detailed look is a 'trailing winrate' plot, where for every session I pull the results for the previous 100 hours, and 500 hours, then calculate a winrate for that period. (This is all in Matlab because overkill.) The original idea was just to see how much volatility there was over a month or two ... and holy **** is there a lot.

I don't have one handy, but there's easily +-$40-50/hr in 100 hour samples. And to get to your point, a lot of variability in 500 hour samples. There are a few that were even negative. That's a tough stretch to play through.

At the end of the day though, my other primary hobby *costs* me about $20/hr, plus equipment. So this isn't so bad.
This is the key to poker for me. It's a hobby, and ideally I make money, but even if I lose money it's a lot less than I would spend golfing or collecting cars or whatever else people do with their free time.

Of course I've made $75k from poker this year...
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Old 11-28-2017, 08:07 PM   #19991
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Iím at 19bb/hr for 161 hours (20 sessions). Iíll post a graph when I get to 500hrs. Inb4 I get flamed for posting a low sample size.
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Old 11-29-2017, 04:03 AM   #19992
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Iím at 19bb/hr for 161 hours (20 sessions). Iíll post a graph when I get to 500hrs. Inb4 I get flamed for posting a low sample size.
It's great that you've started out well in your first 20 sessions.
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Old 11-29-2017, 10:18 AM   #19993
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It's great that you've started out well in your first 20 sessions.
Thank you. Iíve had two 600bb downswing where I tilted a bit. Iím guessing downswings as big as 1000bb are normalish? Iím gonna scan through some graphs on here and look for that
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Old 11-29-2017, 10:46 AM   #19994
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Originally Posted by ljfe View Post
Thank you. Iíve had two 600bb downswing where I tilted a bit. Iím guessing downswings as big as 1000bb are normalish? Iím gonna scan through some graphs on here and look for that
Depends on your definition of "normal". It also depends on how much better you are than your player pool. If you're in the top 2-5%, maybe you hit a 1000BB downswing once every 1000 hours. If you are a marginal winner, it could happen a lot more regularly.
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Old 11-29-2017, 12:52 PM   #19995
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Thank you. Iíve had two 600bb downswing where I tilted a bit. Iím guessing downswings as big as 1000bb are normalish? Iím gonna scan through some graphs on here and look for that
Depends on a lot. Obviously first how good you are relative to your competition.

But then the depth of the game matters a lot more than almost anything else. A 200BB cap game will have larger swings than a 100BB cap game, especially if you're getting stacks in often. It's not *just* the cap though, it's the average stack and the action (which *tend* to follow the cap but don't need to).

Your propensity to tilt will make any natural down variance worse too.

I also think that the length of your sessions will impact how often you *see* a downswing in your data. If you're playing 2 hour sessions, you may lose two in a row for -200BB each, then win the 3rd for +300BB. But if you lumped those hours into one single session you'd be -100BB and it wouldn't *look* like you swung as hard.

Last thing ... even if you could figure out that for your game conditions and player pool you'd expect a particular downswing every 1000 or so hours, that doesn't mean you can't have one at 200 hours. Or 3 in 1000 hours.
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Old 11-29-2017, 02:01 PM   #19996
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
PLO has been an interesting and frustrating transition. There are a lot of guys that I know that can find no reason to fold any PLO hand. J722 rainbow? Call a raise and pile it in with a set. Just got stacked for $400? Re-buy for $500, straddle that button, and yell "POT" before looking at your hand when it gets called around to you. Total insanity. But it makes a lot of the PLO literature out there less than applicable.
Damn if that's not the funniest and most accurate description of PLO I've ever read.
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Old 11-29-2017, 02:14 PM   #19997
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Thanks guys. Iím playing 100bb max buyin, no cap. Stacks are generally not short. I hope I donít see another downswing thatís larger than 600bb, but Iím mentally prepared for more than that. With my online experience I think I can maintain a 10bb/hr winrate. I currently have a 1.5 hour drive so anything less than that would be a grind. Iíll post updates. At a casino called FW. Any recommendations on when to move up stakes? For instance 1000 hours with a 10bb/hr winrate.
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Old 11-29-2017, 02:23 PM   #19998
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People that beat the game for 10 bigs per over the long term can taste their edge. When you sit at the table as a 10+bb winner you know exactly where your edge lies. There is no missing it. Your opponents are like open books. You pretty much know what they are gunna do before they do. You see their errors and blast em for it. If this resonates and u are like yep I feel you. Take a poke at higher games. If not and you are simply running really hot take your time and work things out for a while
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Old 11-29-2017, 02:42 PM   #19999
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Originally Posted by ljfe View Post
Thanks guys. Iím playing 100bb max buyin, no cap. Stacks are generally not short. I hope I donít see another downswing thatís larger than 600bb, but Iím mentally prepared for more than that. With my online experience I think I can maintain a 10bb/hr winrate. I currently have a 1.5 hour drive so anything less than that would be a grind. Iíll post updates. At a casino called FW. Any recommendations on when to move up stakes? For instance 1000 hours with a 10bb/hr winrate.
You buy in 100bb but it's uncapped? Can you clarify? 100bb max is a capped game.
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Old 11-29-2017, 02:58 PM   #20000
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You buy in 100bb but it's uncapped? Can you clarify? 100bb max is a capped game.
Sorry my understanding of capped was incorrect (I’m a former online “CAP” game player where each hand is capped). Yes the buyin is capped.

I feel you squid face. I’ll give it at least 500 hours.
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