I’m definitely in agreement with Sol on this one, gonna take the over. Phil Ivey, after some adjustment period, could beat most live 5/10 games for over 14BB/hour. I’ll add the caveat that they must play deep enough - like not less than 200BB max BI, hopefully like 300BB+ max BI where most players buy in full.

Imagine this scenario. There’s a 1k pot. Action checks to us, and we have to decide if we will bluff, and if we do, the sizing (anywhere from $300 to $2k+). Let’s first limit ourselves to a pot-sized-bet. One of us playing our A+ game might see the situation and very accurately decide that villain folds only 45% of the time, so we shouldn’t bluff (villain needs to fold over 50% for it to be profitable). However, it’s likely that our 45% judgment is actually because we couldn’t discriminate between 3 different but similar situations, two in which villain folds 40% of the time, and one in which villain folds 55% of the time. Phil Ivey, however, might be able to discriminate these situations - so perhaps he chooses not to bluff in the first two cases, and bluffs in the third. He rakes in $100 in EV in the process.

Given our ability to size bets as we wish gives a huge edge to the very best players, who may routinely see gains of $20, $100, $300+ in EV at a 5/10 game compared to worse players simply by being better at sizing with both value and bluffs. That’s not to mention EV gained by value betting and calling more thinly in spots, and likely by picking up on tells that are nearly invisible to almost everybody else.

I think Phil Ivey would absolutely crush most good/decent pros at 5/10, and even then I doubt he is anywhere near the ceiling in terms of what is actually possible. Even very very good players make huge mistakes, and the best players certainly make some pretty big ones too.

One man's softplay is another's exploit. What if KK knows he will get multiple streets versus playing a 3b pot and getting less EV?

FWIW I don't play 5T+, just playing devil's advocate.

he probably meant he never 3bet his friend, including in a showdown where he showed KK, so obvious softplaying

Interesting, I'm not sure who you mean, but I don't mean some of the old guard you've mentioned playing against, but the current pros who all beat 2/5 zoom, and I suspect you haven't played with them (just thinking of the timelines of when they were in LA/Vegas and when you were there). There are definitely pools of weaker 5/10 regs in London, and also a lot of the ones you mention are probably now PLO regs and have fallen behind on NLHE.

The regs I mention play very hard against each other, and generally are people I consider very ethical, but you never know I suppose.

If you wanna PM their names I can confirm my thoughts on them, but I suspect our opinions would not differ as much as you think. Lots of the best players world wide move to London for tax and social reasons, so there's a lot of top players here who all are online regs also.

I really do not see how situation when 2 regs softplaying, sharing bankroll or backing each other can affect somebody else hourly rate? when Btn softplay with KK by just flatting for example BB, is actually +ev for SB. for players not involved into hand it have no impact, and even is better as probably hand go to showdown more quickly by checking, so they can play more hands per hour on such tables.

only from psychological pint of view I can see some deviation (they have less stress so they can play better overall. however tilt on such level should be marginal factor already when it come up to regs. at least in theory).

collusion between two players, like bet pattern manipulation* when 3rd player is involved or given hidden sign is different story. if it happen and proven, players should be banned.

*(not sure if is possible from GTO point of view as we simply play strength of our hand vs 2 players and if they deviating from optimal games than they simply loose money. but yeh, for sure is possible to extract extra money from fish or weak player)

You don't think tilt is a factor among regs? When all players are technically sound, controlling tilt is one of the most important factors in making money. If there are 2 good players that aren't going to play each other hard that can certainly have a negative impact on your winrate. Not only are they not likely to put each other on tilt, but they are also unlikely to felt one another which means they are less likely to be replaced by a recreational player.

As for sharing a bankroll, I don't think we need to discuss ways to cheat ITT but it's pretty obvious that certain decision become +EV when you share a bankroll with another player which otherwise wouldn't be.

Yeah for instance, if you have position on the fish, you often want to be deep and cover, but it can hurt your EV a lot of the next person to your left is a very aggro reg and is super deep also. There are definitely spots players would choose to not sit extremely deep for that reason, but if the other reg didn't play aggro against the reg, they'd more happily sit super deep.

well, for me is huge factor for sure when I play live as I am recreational player. I just thought that at certain level it became standard to control ourselves when we treat poker as profession. Probably I overestimated pro self control abilities.

it make sens, yeh

Can you clarify on this please. Because I was researching moving to London for tax reasons, but it would take 6 years for me to get citizenship, thus I'd be paying US taxes until then, correct? Did all these players really move there for tax benefits they wouldnt reap for another 6 years? Is there something I'm missing?

First 70K a Murican earns overseas is not taxable in the US if A, IIRC

I read into that before, foreign earned income exclusion. It's up to 100k or so, I'm not quite sure how you qualify for it. This is some basic info on it

https://www.irs.gov/individuals/inte...n-requirements

I suppose it depends how much somebody makes then -- for those who make 300k+, your savings are still going to be limited for the first 6 years, but if most are making 100-200k then the exclusion would indeed suffice to justify moving so long as you qualify for it. The point being it seems like a drastic measure for a long-term plan in a volatile industry. I sure hope I'm not still playing full-time 6 years from now, and if I am, I don't plan to for too much longer then that.

Forget about the 6 year thing. That has nothing to do with anything related to taxation. As long as you are a US citizen you have a filling requirement. Period. Doesn't matter where you are in the world.

You are correct that there is an earned income exclusion which has now been indexed to ~100k so Garlick is exposing his old.

However the exclusion only applies to income tax not self employment tax. Thus, it is possible one could have no INCOME tax but still have a self employment tax due.


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Gambling winnings are non taxable in London anyway?

We are talking about tax on US citizens


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wtf are you talking about.

the "6 year thing" I was talking about was BECOMING A U.K. CITIZEN, it has absolutely everything to do with taxation lmao.

K good luck


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Becoming a UK citizen AND renouncing your US citizenship.

I bet Sol Reader was referring to EU nationals who before brexit could move to any EU country. Since the UK doesn't tax gambling winnings, many moved to grind online/live there.

Why would anyone pay US taxes living in the UK without intent to return as a citizen? It's not enforceable and the US has no right to that money. I would assume there's a way to renounce your citizenship before becoming a UK citizen so this doesn't matter?

Anyone who renounces US citizenship for the main purpose of avoiding US taxes is absolutely crazy. That's much worse than quitting a 6 figure job or quitting college to play poker for a living.

Also I'm pretty sure you aren't allowed back into the USA ever again if you renounce citizenship, not even for your parents funeral or similar.

Because the US is the unarguably the best place is the world to live? As a US citizen I have no problem admitting that there's tons of crap wrong with our country, such as the way gambling winnings are taxed (mainly for recs) or unjust laws like UIGEA. Of course no country is perfect, but the which one is the best place to live is clearly subjective and may be different for each person. Poker players have a lot of incentive to live somewhere else as the government treats us pretty unfairly.

Why wouldn't you be able to visit under the same rules that allow foreigners to visit the US?

Especially playing llsnl. Just send like an awful idea unless there are other determining factors involved


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I guess I was wrong about this:

http://www.renouncecitizenship.ca/ex...-expatriation/

Sure there's tons of crap wrong with our Country. If you want to leave the Country or renounce citizenship for those reasons, more power to you. You find just as many problems in whatever Country you go to.

However, what I said was renouncing for the main purpose of avoiding US taxes is stupid. The cost of living in England is very high. Houses are very expensive. Gas is very expensive. Are you going to play poker forever? If not, when you get a real job, income tax in England is higher than the US.

Once you renounce and decide you made a mistake, for whatever reason from family reasons to anything else, youre never going to be able to undue it. Youre also never coming back and getting a job. Unless you want to live like an illegal alien does now.

So if youre in your 20s or 30s and your plan is to play poker for the next 50 years in an environment that we all know is getting tougher very fast, with increasing rake and no way to get raises without playing higher stakes and inflation eating away the buying power of your stagnant income....then more power to you. Its going to be the biggest mistake of your life.

Yeah that's what I was referring to, gaining citizenship and renouncing your current one because they don't tax gambling winnings, I know.

Ahh, that makes a lot more sense if that was what he was talking about -- that others already within the EU could move there to reap the tax benefits without having to go through such drastic lengths that an american would.


Also, I'm not sure if I agree with you Mike. It just depends if you have strong attachments in the US and don't think you'd want to leave. There's plenty of places that would be considered equal if not better to live, however for many this is the only place we know and to leave it would be very difficult for the sake of saving money (unless its life-changing amounts).
I do agree that its very excessive if you don't know that you're going to be playing poker forever, as it largely defeats the purpose. But as OT mentioned, that's likely not what Sol was referring to.