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Old 11-07-2017, 05:03 PM   #19901
Dizzyqtp
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by niceguy22 View Post
@ dizzy: very nice results. Congrats! You play $200nl online (and I assume you win or else you wouldn't bother playing) yet you rarely study? I thought that was pretty much unheard of at a level this high.
thanks man - and i mean ignition is pretty soft so i don't think it really counts haha. i go through phases where i take playing online more/less seriously but i mostly just use it as a training tool to get lots of volume in when i'm too tired/don't have time to make it to the casino.

i never really bothered with a hud or tracking system since ignition has anonymous tables and i don't really play that much, so unfortunately i don't know how many hands i've played or how well i am actually doing online other than how much $ i am up. i doubt i am that big of a winner.
(i'm also not even sure any huds work effectively on ignition zoom tables)

i've jumped around stakes a lot in the past but more recently have settled into playing 200nlz and have been doing ~well so we will see how it goes.
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Old 11-07-2017, 05:26 PM   #19902
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by niceguy22 View Post
@ dizzy: very nice results. Congrats! You play $200nl online (and I assume you win or else you wouldn't bother playing) yet you rarely study? I thought that was pretty much unheard of at a level this high.
he doesnt barely study
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Old 11-07-2017, 05:28 PM   #19903
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Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
just use it as a training tool to get lots of volume in when i'm too tired/don't have time to make it to the casino.
hell yea mother****er, this is what you gotta do. this guy knows how to be successful at poker
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Old 11-10-2017, 05:32 PM   #19904
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I'd say more for sure. I'd guess I know 20+ players in my pool who can make that much in an american 5/10. From all I've heard, Ivey actually is as good as they say at poker, and this is coming from people who love to tear celebs down.
I'll take the under on this, by a lot.

I don't think anyone can beat 5/10 for 14bb/hr for a large sample, barring extreme run good. The math for it simply does not add up, because most 5/10 line-ups have enough pros that there isn't enough money lost by the fish to make anyone win that much.

I've played with some of the people in your player pool, and I wasn't super impressed. I say your player pool, because I assume there aren't that many London regs who play high stakes, so if I see them in my games you probably know them. Some of them also BLATANTLY soft played each other in big games, which is not cool.


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Old 11-10-2017, 05:38 PM   #19905
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Soft playing is (was?) a big problem in sfla games. (As are my STRONG suspicions of all out collusion in certain line ups)

Alot of people laugh when i say this, but it was one of the determining factors in me realizing I could not go pro.
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Old 11-10-2017, 05:41 PM   #19906
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Softplaying is (was?) a big problem in sfla games. (As are my STRONG suspicions of all out collusion in certain line ups)

Alot of people laugh when i say this, but it was one of the determining factors in me realizing I could not go pro.
Not surprising, in some markets it makes certain games or limits unplayable
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Old 11-10-2017, 06:14 PM   #19907
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Tons of regs share bankrolls, stake each other, or have money-back deals with each other. There's nothing you can do about that but it helps to know who's friends with whom.

What isn't acceptable is one reg flatting his friend with KK on the button because no one else entered the pot yet. These guys already 3 bet the fish a ton so GTFO with this blatant collusion ****.
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Old 11-10-2017, 06:20 PM   #19908
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
Tons of regs share bankrolls, stake each other, or have money-back deals with each other. There's nothing you can do about that but it helps to know who's friends with whom.



What isn't acceptable is one reg flatting his friend with KK on the button because no one else entered the pot yet. These guys already 3 bet the fish a ton so GTFO with this blatant collusion ****.


but what if they want to do that because that’s how they want to play from a game perspective?
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Old 11-10-2017, 06:24 PM   #19909
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They clearly aren't, is my point.

If I raised from MP are any of them flatting KK from the button? **** no. That's where it becomes collusion.
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Old 11-10-2017, 06:30 PM   #19910
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They clearly aren't, is my point.

If I raised from MP are any of them flatting KK from the button? **** no. That's where it becomes collusion.


yeah but “bruh i know my bro’s game so well and i’m gonna value his TP so badly and that sabr is a fish who calls with anything”
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Old 11-10-2017, 06:32 PM   #19911
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Collusion is a strong word for flatting your friend with KK. It's softplaying IMO, which isn't kosher, but not on the same level as cooperating in multiway pots against other players.
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Old 11-10-2017, 07:02 PM   #19912
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I think that soft playing can probably be exploited for +EV to some extent, if you know who’s soft playing who - so as above mentioned, soft playing ain’t exactly the same as collusion (but agreed it’s still bad, especially as stakes get bigger).
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Old 11-10-2017, 07:25 PM   #19913
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I'll take the under on this, by a lot.

I don't think anyone can beat 5/10 for 14bb/hr for a large sample, barring extreme run good. The math for it simply does not add up, because most 5/10 line-ups have enough pros that there isn't enough money lost by the fish to make anyone win that much.

I've played with some of the people in your player pool, and I wasn't super impressed. I say your player pool, because I assume there aren't that many London regs who play high stakes, so if I see them in my games you probably know them. Some of them also BLATANTLY soft played each other in big games, which is not cool.


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I’m definitely in agreement with Sol on this one, gonna take the over. Phil Ivey, after some adjustment period, could beat most live 5/10 games for over 14BB/hour. I’ll add the caveat that they must play deep enough - like not less than 200BB max BI, hopefully like 300BB+ max BI where most players buy in full.

Imagine this scenario. There’s a 1k pot. Action checks to us, and we have to decide if we will bluff, and if we do, the sizing (anywhere from $300 to $2k+). Let’s first limit ourselves to a pot-sized-bet. One of us playing our A+ game might see the situation and very accurately decide that villain folds only 45% of the time, so we shouldn’t bluff (villain needs to fold over 50% for it to be profitable). However, it’s likely that our 45% judgment is actually because we couldn’t discriminate between 3 different but similar situations, two in which villain folds 40% of the time, and one in which villain folds 55% of the time. Phil Ivey, however, might be able to discriminate these situations - so perhaps he chooses not to bluff in the first two cases, and bluffs in the third. He rakes in $100 in EV in the process.

Given our ability to size bets as we wish gives a huge edge to the very best players, who may routinely see gains of $20, $100, $300+ in EV at a 5/10 game compared to worse players simply by being better at sizing with both value and bluffs. That’s not to mention EV gained by value betting and calling more thinly in spots, and likely by picking up on tells that are nearly invisible to almost everybody else.

I think Phil Ivey would absolutely crush most good/decent pros at 5/10, and even then I doubt he is anywhere near the ceiling in terms of what is actually possible. Even very very good players make huge mistakes, and the best players certainly make some pretty big ones too.
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Old 11-10-2017, 08:15 PM   #19914
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
Collusion is a strong word for flatting your friend with KK. It's softplaying IMO, which isn't kosher, but not on the same level as cooperating in multiway pots against other players.
One man's softplay is another's exploit. What if KK knows he will get multiple streets versus playing a 3b pot and getting less EV?

FWIW I don't play 5T+, just playing devil's advocate.
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Old 11-11-2017, 03:23 AM   #19915
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One man's softplay is another's exploit. What if KK knows he will get multiple streets versus playing a 3b pot and getting less EV?

FWIW I don't play 5T+, just playing devil's advocate.
he probably meant he never 3bet his friend, including in a showdown where he showed KK, so obvious softplaying
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Old 11-11-2017, 04:46 AM   #19916
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I've played with some of the people in your player pool, and I wasn't super impressed. I say your player pool, because I assume there aren't that many London regs who play high stakes, so if I see them in my games you probably know them. Some of them also BLATANTLY soft played each other in big games, which is not cool.
Interesting, I'm not sure who you mean, but I don't mean some of the old guard you've mentioned playing against, but the current pros who all beat 2/5 zoom, and I suspect you haven't played with them (just thinking of the timelines of when they were in LA/Vegas and when you were there). There are definitely pools of weaker 5/10 regs in London, and also a lot of the ones you mention are probably now PLO regs and have fallen behind on NLHE.

The regs I mention play very hard against each other, and generally are people I consider very ethical, but you never know I suppose.

If you wanna PM their names I can confirm my thoughts on them, but I suspect our opinions would not differ as much as you think. Lots of the best players world wide move to London for tax and social reasons, so there's a lot of top players here who all are online regs also.
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Old 11-11-2017, 05:32 AM   #19917
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I really do not see how situation when 2 regs softplaying, sharing bankroll or backing each other can affect somebody else hourly rate? when Btn softplay with KK by just flatting for example BB, is actually +ev for SB. for players not involved into hand it have no impact, and even is better as probably hand go to showdown more quickly by checking, so they can play more hands per hour on such tables.

only from psychological pint of view I can see some deviation (they have less stress so they can play better overall. however tilt on such level should be marginal factor already when it come up to regs. at least in theory).

collusion between two players, like bet pattern manipulation* when 3rd player is involved or given hidden sign is different story. if it happen and proven, players should be banned.

*(not sure if is possible from GTO point of view as we simply play strength of our hand vs 2 players and if they deviating from optimal games than they simply loose money. but yeh, for sure is possible to extract extra money from fish or weak player)
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Old 11-11-2017, 05:48 AM   #19918
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You don't think tilt is a factor among regs? When all players are technically sound, controlling tilt is one of the most important factors in making money. If there are 2 good players that aren't going to play each other hard that can certainly have a negative impact on your winrate. Not only are they not likely to put each other on tilt, but they are also unlikely to felt one another which means they are less likely to be replaced by a recreational player.

As for sharing a bankroll, I don't think we need to discuss ways to cheat ITT but it's pretty obvious that certain decision become +EV when you share a bankroll with another player which otherwise wouldn't be.
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Old 11-11-2017, 06:02 AM   #19919
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Yeah for instance, if you have position on the fish, you often want to be deep and cover, but it can hurt your EV a lot of the next person to your left is a very aggro reg and is super deep also. There are definitely spots players would choose to not sit extremely deep for that reason, but if the other reg didn't play aggro against the reg, they'd more happily sit super deep.
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Old 11-11-2017, 07:50 AM   #19920
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You don't think tilt is a factor among regs?
well, for me is huge factor for sure when I play live as I am recreational player. I just thought that at certain level it became standard to control ourselves when we treat poker as profession. Probably I overestimated pro self control abilities.

Quote:
Yeah for instance, if you have position on the fish, you often want to be deep and cover, but it can hurt your EV a lot of the next person to your left is a very aggro reg and is super deep also. There are definitely spots players would choose to not sit extremely deep for that reason, but if the other reg didn't play aggro against the reg, they'd more happily sit super deep.
it make sens, yeh
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Old 11-11-2017, 05:49 PM   #19921
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Lots of the best players world wide move to London for tax and social reasons, so there's a lot of top players here who all are online regs also.
Can you clarify on this please. Because I was researching moving to London for tax reasons, but it would take 6 years for me to get citizenship, thus I'd be paying US taxes until then, correct? Did all these players really move there for tax benefits they wouldnt reap for another 6 years? Is there something I'm missing?
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Old 11-11-2017, 08:24 PM   #19922
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

First 70K a Murican earns overseas is not taxable in the US if A, IIRC
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Old 11-11-2017, 09:04 PM   #19923
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I read into that before, foreign earned income exclusion. It's up to 100k or so, I'm not quite sure how you qualify for it. This is some basic info on it

https://www.irs.gov/individuals/inte...n-requirements

I suppose it depends how much somebody makes then -- for those who make 300k+, your savings are still going to be limited for the first 6 years, but if most are making 100-200k then the exclusion would indeed suffice to justify moving so long as you qualify for it. The point being it seems like a drastic measure for a long-term plan in a volatile industry. I sure hope I'm not still playing full-time 6 years from now, and if I am, I don't plan to for too much longer then that.

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Old 11-11-2017, 09:32 PM   #19924
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Forget about the 6 year thing. That has nothing to do with anything related to taxation. As long as you are a US citizen you have a filling requirement. Period. Doesn't matter where you are in the world.

You are correct that there is an earned income exclusion which has now been indexed to ~100k so Garlick is exposing his old.

However the exclusion only applies to income tax not self employment tax. Thus, it is possible one could have no INCOME tax but still have a self employment tax due.


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Old 11-11-2017, 11:17 PM   #19925
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Gambling winnings are non taxable in London anyway?
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