If everyone plays the game properly, and if there is also a rake, then everyone's expected winrate would be negative.

I know this seems nitpicky, but developing proper thought processes is integral to forming a solid foundation for your game.

As someone else mentioned, I would also recommend tracking your results in a spreadsheet. I would highly recommend getting a poker notebook as well; in my opinion it is a far better tool for learning than a coaching subscription or a GTO solver and you can buy a notebook + a few pens at a store for just a few dollars. Write down hands that you found tricky and "think out loud" onto the paper about what you believe the proper play is and, more importantly, why it's the proper play.

GL

No offense, but every player I've met whose said that they play better against tougher players and worse against rec have all been terrible/had massive leaks in their game. The phrase doesn't even make sense. If you want to get good, I'd recommend making detailed records of every hand you make in an excel spreadsheet and then reviewing the hands afterward as well as talking to other good players about the hands you played. I got that tip from a 18bb/hr crusher (over a 5k hr sample size at 2/5) at my local casino and have been crushing ever since. The bad players are where most of your money should come from.

Nice try Joey "you don't have to fold to 3bets in PLO" Ingram.

Getting caught up last 2 pages:

GG is a huge nit (:P) but I essentially agree, and don't see how you cannot. Yeah I am making more money right now than I was 3 years ago in EV because I improved much more vs competition, but this growth is not sustainable. I think the diminishing returns have already starting to hit really hard wrt my growth. I doubt I'd increase my winrate much more over the next year, even if I get into really advanced stuff.

That said, toughness will hit equilibrium unless outside forces change significantly (casinos, regulation, change of games/rules/rake that make winning impossible). The tougher poker is to win a lot of money at, the fewer regs there will be, the fewer people who try to win will play poker. That will still hurt the economy a lot, but I think it'll still be beatable. Will it be beatable for me? Prooobably, but I don't think it's unlikely that my winrate in 5-10 years will be a quarter of mine currently or less. Will it be beatable (better than minimum wage job) for most people on this board? I'm going to go with, probably not for most.



Yeah. People think GTO is "can't be beaten but probably can't beat good regs by much" show so much ridiculous hubris. I remember like 5 years ago so many of the LHE regs on this forum think 100% cbet strategy is LDO the best, and even if the OPTIMAL strategy is slightly less it's close enough and doesn't matter. If you think you can do well compared to GTO, while still being able to exploit fish, I'm up for a hefty prop bet if you like. No doubt you can exploit fish better, but to think that you'll "do okay" vs GTO is laughable. Good luck dealing with 1/4 pot and 8x pot bets all the time.

Yeah 2 of those 3 are probably very mediocre if not straight up bad at NLHE. Just say OTB

10bbs is no way the ceiling. I'm sure some of the best NL regs in my casino already acheive higher than that, and those are some of the tougher games already, + they are good (very good) but not world class good.

No, it's not hard to acheive per se, it's just that anyone that can win at that winrate at low stakes usually can make more at higher stakes. If higher games dry up, or games get tougher, then that winrate at lower stakes will apply (to some degree, because of ourse if that happens then those games will probably get tougher too). Like I said I know of 5+ people with 20-25bb at 1/2 over large samples (at 200-250bb cap buyin).

Ryan spews too, lol, but like, yeah, they're not playing their best, but if they were to, and we're saying theoretically if they had to play properly to make money, at least some of them will come through. Polk and Ryan probably make most of their money through crypto anyway and don't care about winning at poker that much.

But spewy youtube personalities aside, ike, you think these guys who got to the highest stakes did so without discipline and patience? Maybe 5 years ago that's true, but nowadays, not everyone can be Isildur. Most good players these days are work ethic nits. Most regs on this forum doesn't even do basic EV calcs for preflop spots, I find it shocking that there can be accusations of discipline and work ethic slung towards them from this corner.

I'd say more for sure. I'd guess I know 20+ players in my pool who can make that much in an american 5/10. From all I've heard, Ivey actually is as good as they say at poker, and this is coming from people who love to tear celebs down.

While I think it's true deeper games allow for big winrates at times, it's not always the case that it has a big impact. Lots of players tighten up significantly when deep, and I think there can be significant value being in a shorter game where people get it in carelessly. People keep saying I played in deeper 1/2 games so my winrates don't count, so I'm almost tempted to add an extra filter for non deep 1/2 games just to prove it wrong, because even when I sit deep, most people sitting in those games are shallow, and most people I stack are shallow, so idk why people think the winrate would necessarily plunge with a lower buyin (though it'd of course be somewhat lower).

I think some of the randomisation and memorisation is so complex it's basically impossible to get a high degree of accuracy. In PLO I can't imagine it being possible (though I think a very good human can probably get well close enough to the point that he'll be unbeatable by any other human).

Agreed.

My local 10/25 probably is one of the tougher regular fields in the world, but yeah, funny thing is, the regs in my casino who play 10/25 also play 1/3 when there aren't games, so...

That's kind of a straw argument. Saying there's less difference than people think doesn't mean the difference there is isn't very significant (when the blinds are 12.5x the size, every small change in EV is huge).

fwiw I think I "play" in some of the toughest 5/10 10/25 NL games in the world. (I say "play" because I'm a 4 card reg now and avoid them where possible hyuk hyuk hyuk)

I think it's IMMENSELY useful, but most people I know who've used them misapply them outrageously and it actually hurt their development, that's all.

They're broke.


Suure, but a lot of these regs might not know how to adjust to needing to being tighter. This applies to some of the 2010-2012 regs who did very well in a meta of hyper aggression and then when the times changed they didn't adapy fast enough and got destroyed. A genuinely good reg who did adjust... well he'd just become a higher stake reg then, welcome to the club I guess? I assume Sabr is suggesting the reason the 2/5 regs that cannot move up cannot move up because they found a formula that beat 2/5 but couldn't adjust to a strategy that beat the higher stakes well enough to move up.


idk, seems pretty straight forward, can you explain? From balanced standpoint, you just think about your range same way as you do usual. Do you sqz TT JJ? How much AQ do you sqz? If you have TT JJ JT often enough, then it seems like a spot you bet 1/4 spot most of range then check majority of turns, and bomb some small %, or bet small again on rainbow 2-6 turn. If you have no TT JJ in range you might check 100% of range on flop. Explo would follow the same explo proccess, without much change, is our hand winning enough of the time when we bet and get called, which sizing gets most value, does checking induce more value now or on later streets, and how does it compare to the value of protection, etc etc.

Yeah, big leak to be focusing on results, and in particular, such blatant acceptance of risk aversion.


Disagreed. It's in the lower games where you can deviate from "ABC". If you do it at high stakes you will get punished, in lower stakes games you will not. If you pick the worst spot possible to "deviate" then you're just doing it wrong, not because you can't do it at lower stakes.

If higher stakes are nothing but nitfests, why don't $2/5 crushers move up and make everyone fold with all their skills?

Because, *sob*, tight is right after all.

The good higher stakes players are TIGHT, not NITTY, they are playing a correct tight range, not because they are scared money or because they can't adjust.

I've definitely played lower stakes games instead of the higher one that is tougher, and I didn't sit the 10/20/40 at commerce every time it ran, and played the 5/10 1500 cap instead some of the times (fwiw I didn't have a huge USD roll either so that's also part of the reason). I'm sure SABR does this, any good reg does this, not sure what's really in contention here. That said, there's a huge upside (that comes with variance) in those bigger games because if you get the spot or semi-spot in a big pot where they hugely misplay, you can make a LOT of EV, or you can sit there for hours to wait for the game to become good when you outlast other regs who leave and then a mediocre rec joins, and maybe some regs get tilted. I think the EV of a higher stakes games depend on a lot more variables than just what's obvious on the surface, and regs who are used to battling can see potential EV where others see nits/tight regs.

Yeah agreed. Don't throw away your life.


THIS, but also I think it's too much a given that "work" time necessarily gets presedence over family time. I try not to suck the life out of this forum with my preaching crap, but men in relationships and families really need to take a hard look at the family dynamics and their place in it and how their decision affects the home. A lot of men get to pursue hobbies or financial pursuits (of which poker can be either) at the sacrifice of their family cohesion, at their own discretion (or if not then they complain about their partner nagging them, as if they have no right to), and especially when the rest of the family cannot make those same decisions, it puts a huge and often unfair strain in the domestic space. It's frankly selfish, and of course this is not just for regs, in fact it's mostly true for fish who "escape" home life to gamble at lose money to regs like me, but I think it definitely includes regs and winning players too. Poker is a very stressful hobby/job, and it's not isolated. It's not like you going out to play poker either winning and having fun, or losing and being unhappy, isn't going to affect your family when you turn around and go home. I'm not talking about the extreme of people getting angry at beating up their wives and sh t when they go home, but even on a much much smaller scale, just their mood or enthusiasm for example, it's something that can have profound effect on family relations, and this is speaking from personal experience, coming from someone who have very close relationship with people in my home, and don't really spend that many hours away from home to begin with.

Not trying to discourage you from getting into poker, but don't think about sacrificing your family time like it's some kind of logistical puzzle of optimising money making and +Life EV interactions (mainly for yourself). Think of them in human terms. It's possible to play poker in a way that doesn't affect those factors negatively, in fact it can be possitive (everyone can be made happier if everyone has their own time to do their own things).


I really don't think it works like that. To a degree yeah, of course you can bribe your family with money, but it's about way more than that, unless you have a dysfuntional relationship to begin with, and they're happy to see less of you and would rather have gifts.

Gifts themselves are not the problem, they can be nice, but it doesn't solve the problem that is being brought up here.

I actually went out today and bought a note book to keep track. In the past couple sessions I've played I've noticed things that I could have done better. One in particular was my bet size. I wouldn't bet enough and allowe players to call with a small enough amount to try and catch their hand ( only had bet like 30% of pot after flop) and pretty sure if I made a larger bet to protect my hands I would have been fine. Also looking back, found myself limping into hands I shouldn't have even been in and catching a piece of board enough to keep me in hand and then loose. But my big areas I know I have to work on is bet sizing and quality of starting hands as well as keeping my position I kind when entering a hand. Went out today and made about 50BB in 2.5hrs. While working on these techniques. Some of you saying I totally have leaks in my game. I understand that. I do know I'm better than your avarrgae Joe Shmoe, but I wouldn't be posting on here if I didn't need advise on plugging those holes. I have a lot of work towards building my game up. Just really don't have anyone to talk to about it.

2,000 hour post:

Graph: https://imgur.com/h7UebId

Results:
1/2NL: +20,726; 823 hrs; 25.20/hr; 12.6bb/hr
1/3NL: +6,434; 91 hrs; 70.96/hr; 23.7bb/hr
2/5NL: +43,421; 849 hrs; 51.12/hr; 10.2bb/hr
T/TNL: +37,779; 210 hrs; 180.26/hr; 18.0bb/hr

2/2PLO: -1,561; 25 hrs; -62.62/hr; -30.8bb/hr
5/5PLO: -290; 3 hrs; -116/hr; -23.20bb/hr

Total: +106,509; 2000 hrs; 53.25/hr; 12.1bb/hr

of course we go on a nice little 9k downswing right into the 2,000th hour, but still really happy with how the last 1,000 hours have gone and was fortunate to run pretty well overall. improved my game a lot, but still lots i hope to be doing better over the next 1,000. i also suck at plo.

Excellent stuff mate. 100bb cap games? Over what period was this 2k hours?

1/2 is 300 max
1/3 is 500 max
2/5 is 1k max
T/T is 3k max

& it is over the past ~2.5 years (i work full-time and play mostly during the week after work)

Obv just max out 10/10 volume lol

Can you answer the questions wrt 2/5?

Do you limp?
What is your standard UTG open range?
What is your standard open size?
What is your standard 3b range (say co vs mp)?

Where do you put yourself overall (2/5 specific)?

-3.......-2.......-1......0......1........2........3
Passive...............Tag...............Nutjob

Do you limp? never open limp; will overlimp some
UTG open range: 77+; ATs+; KTs+; QTs+; JTs+; T9s; 89s; AQo+; A5s. will sometimes open 22+; AJo; and more suited aces depending on table or tighten up the range depending on the table
Standard open size: 4bb+1bb/limp
3b range: really player dependent so hard to say but can be extremely wide
Maniac Level: on average probably a 1.5. Going to be hovering from -1 to 2 depending on the table. some villains probably think i am a 3

I have tremendous respect for you honest evaluation of your poker game. Most players don't have that, and that's why they continue to lose. I can tell you have a lot of potential. My average flop lead size is 2/3 pot. You want to milk value with a reasonable sizing if you have a TPGK+ type hand, as well as have a sufficient sizing to get secondpair- to fold to barrels when you flop a high equity hand like a straight/flush draw. PM me if you want tips/help.

Impressive results.

Are most stacks near the cap when you're playing>?

I personally think most players underestimate how big of a difference the cap and average stack depth impacts your winrate for what would nominally be the "same stakes".

thanks man

it obviously varies a ton - there are still plenty of min-buyers (200 at 2/5) and people who buy in for 400-800, but i would say on average >half of the table is 200bb+ eff and it is pretty common for there to be tables with 2-4 people who are very deep

nice results dizzy. what do you make of your $10/10 results? do you think you have a significant skill edge over the player pool (including the above average regs)? Do you feel like you've been running significantly over EV?

210 hours is obv not much but it's not nothing either.

T/T i have been running very well overall and have done a good job at putting together and playing in some pretty good lineups. i was winning @ 250/hr until more recently when i've lost ~8.5k over my last 4 sessions; which was a mix of mistakes and run-bad.

I think long-term I am a winner in the game but obv not for 18bb/hr. my results have been very swingy - lots of big wins and big losses - so i am interested to see what it converges to long term. i am confident in lineups that include tougher regs/pros, but i think there are a lot of things i can be doing better.

very impressive & good results dizzy

in your opinion what do you do that sets you apart from your competition? do you study a lot? are you subbed/coached by anybody right now?

ty sir!

i do not study very much, no. i wish i could do more in-depth studying but i work full-time/am mostly busy on weekends. i have never had a coach.

my "studying" consist of:
- reading and posting on 2p2 (really helpful in my beginning poker career)
- clp (i don't get as much out of this as i did in my earlier days either, but i still listen to some podcasts in the car/watch the occasional video)
- watch latb streams when they are on/i am home
- putting in volume online (mostly 200nlz on ignition atm)
- discussing hands with a select few people in my pool

what sets me apart from other regs?

intangibles: i am pleasant to play with/friendly with recs, i am properly rolled, i promote straddles when i can, i rarely/don't tilt, i show my hand first, i will drink a beer at times at the table, avoid strat talk, etc. basically do everything and anything i can to promote a good environment at the table.
(aka anyone who hasn't read DGAF's thread should - this stuff matters!)

tangibles: i think i play in a sweet spot between the nit/tag regs and the maniacs - i see a lot of flops with initiative, bet 3 streets (both value and bluff) much more often than your average 2/5 reg (but still know how to check post) and use my image to get max value as much as possible.

edit: i still punt off stacks more than i'd like to though...gotta stop doing that

congrats on the results dizzy and thanks for posting them and your insights

thanks for answering man, making 100k+ with poker being a casual/part time is very impressive, hope you keep crushing. there is indeed lots of value into actually being fun at the table (both for you as a person and for the game). this is where i think being a casual gives you an edge, being there because you want to be there and not to pay the bills makes a huge difference.

huge respect, good luck

Chumbardo. I really appreciate your response and willingness to aide in my growth. I'm new to the site and I'm not quite sure how to message. I would definitely like to pick your brain on a few subjects if you don't mind messaging me first or just emailing me directly not sure if that's allowed. Shouldz1317@gmail.com

What app is this graph in dizzy?

Also wrt PLO... I was a decent winner in HU and 6m PLO online pre BF. Live PLO is a totally different ball game and it takes a ridiculously long time to determine if you are a winner let alone get any kind of confidence interval on a winrate. the 5/5 and below PLO games are so slow.

Ty guys really appreciate it and more than happy to share my thoughts

Excel

Good stuff dizzy - also sweet results

Very nice Dizzy.