Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-12-2017, 01:58 PM   #19751
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So then all we have to do is be like a computer?

You're not convincing me much.

Ggoodlucktousallthen,imoG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 02:06 PM   #19752
niceguy22
adept
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 820
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Not sure if you're joking or not at this point but ya. Not far fetched at all to suggest we can learn from a.i...hence piosolver etc (popular game theory software that people currently use to get better all the time).
niceguy22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 02:16 PM   #19753
niceguy22
adept
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 820
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
So then all we have to do is be like a computer?

You're not convincing me much.

Ggoodlucktousallthen,imoG
Maybe one day the a.i. will end up teaching us all that the only thing that matters in poker is stack size & SPR...
niceguy22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 02:17 PM   #19754
Dream Crusher
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dream Crusher's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Dallas
Posts: 15,670
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
The stock market being up has more to do with the trillions im central bank liquidity injections + billions in corporate share buybacks and less to do with how the economy as a whole is actually doing. We are far more likely to see a recession, market correction and decline in home values over the next 18-24 months than we are to continue on this 8 years and counting unabated march higher.
Are you saying the economy is worse now than it was in 2009? Please expand on your thoughts. The fact is people have been making money hand over fist for the past 8 years. What happens over the next 24 months is irrelevant to what has been happening over the past few years in the poker economy which has seen a dramatic decline. I hate to break it to you, but it's not because people don't have money. People have lots of money. They are simply choosing to spend it on different forms of entertainment.
Dream Crusher is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 02:26 PM   #19755
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by niceguy22 View Post
Maybe one day the a.i. will end up teaching us all that the only thing that matters in poker is stack size & SPR...
I'm not going to pretend I understand how poker A.I. works, but my guess would be it revolves around things that ~all humans are incapable of doing.

GcluelessAInoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 02:30 PM   #19756
QuantumSurfer
old hand
 
QuantumSurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Home on the Range
Posts: 1,943
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Are you saying the economy is worse now than it was in 2009? Please expand on your thoughts. The fact is people have been making money hand over fist for the past 8 years. What happens over the next 24 months is irrelevant to what has been happening over the past few years in the poker economy which has seen a dramatic decline. I hate to break it to you, but it's not because people don't have money. People have lots of money. They are simply choosing to spend it on different forms of entertainment.
A small, minuscule portion of the population has been making money hand over fist for the past 8 years. You can actually trace the trend back to the late 70's. But to focus on present day, taking the CA housing market for example, it's nearly impossible for average people to afford homes in cities. I mean, the average home price in Compton, CA is ~375k. The average (not mean) income in LA is ~60k/yr. Not hard to see that this isn't sustainable.
QuantumSurfer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 02:31 PM   #19757
pocketzeroes
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,333
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Are you saying the economy is worse now than it was in 2009? Please expand on your thoughts. The fact is people have been making money hand over fist for the past 8 years. What happens over the next 24 months is irrelevant to what has been happening over the past few years in the poker economy which has seen a dramatic decline. I hate to break it to you, but it's not because people don't have money. People have lots of money. They are simply choosing to spend it on different forms of entertainment.
Anecdotally, it definitely does not seem to me like people today have more disposable income than they did before 2008. And I think statistics/graphs generally show the same theme that's been going on for a while - the wealthiest few percent get wealthier while everyone else is getting squeezed.... If those increases had been more evenly spread throughout the population, I think poker games would be doing better and would be more profitable.
pocketzeroes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 02:45 PM   #19758
pocketzeroes
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,333
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
+1

Also, for the record, have we seen anything remotely close to a 20bb/hr winrate over a non-trivial sample size posted in this thread? People already toss around 10bb/hr winrates like halloween candy (with very little posted evidence of this), so you'll have to excuse me if I'm a little skeptical (especially at low stakes low BI high rake games).

GcluelesswinratenoobG
Me stating 20BB/hr is simply based on my intuition about what the winrate distribution likely looks like. I.e., the people in the top 99.9% or 99.99% are going to be doing much better than are really visible here. Also, being capable of winning 20BB/hr does not necessarily mean a choice is made to win 20BB/hr -- I know I for one sometimes do things i am fully aware are -EV (occasionally straddling UTG when I'm doing well, posting a missed blind UTG+1, calling raises pre that can't possibly be +EV, etc).
pocketzeroes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 02:53 PM   #19759
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketzeroes View Post
Me stating 20BB/hr is simply based on my intuition about what the winrate distribution likely looks like. I.e., the people in the top 99.9% or 99.99% are going to be doing much better than are really visible here. Also, being capable of winning 20BB/hr does not necessarily mean a choice is made to win 20BB/hr -- I know I for one sometimes do things i am fully aware are -EV (occasionally straddling UTG when I'm doing well, posting a missed blind UTG+1, calling raises pre that can't possibly be +EV, etc).
So you're saying that all we have to do is be the best player per every 10,000 players / play ~perfect as A.I. would do / etc.? Is that a reasonable goal for most?

Ggee,easypeasy,whydidn'tIthinkofthat?G
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 03:44 PM   #19760
Dream Crusher
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dream Crusher's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Dallas
Posts: 15,670
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketzeroes View Post
Anecdotally, it definitely does not seem to me like people today have more disposable income than they did before 2008. And I think statistics/graphs generally show the same theme that's been going on for a while - the wealthiest few percent get wealthier while everyone else is getting squeezed.... If those increases had been more evenly spread throughout the population, I think poker games would be doing better and would be more profitable.
The fact is that the economy is in the best spot it had been in since the financial crisis. The underlying fundamentals look quite good. When unemployment was up near 10% the poker economy was booming. Today with unemployment cut in half live poker is hurting.

Anecdotally, the economy here in Dallas has been great. Oil took a huge hit and Dallas didn't miss a beat. Poker at the casino is nowhere near where it once was though. Even dealers are feeling the pain as more sophisticated players means lower tips.

Vegas economy has been booming but games there are the worst they've been in the last 5 years at least.

Sent from my KIW-L24 using Tapatalk
Dream Crusher is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 03:59 PM   #19761
pocketzeroes
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,333
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
The fact is that the economy is in the best spot it had been in since the financial crisis. The underlying fundamentals look quite good. When unemployment was up near 10% the poker economy was booming. Today with unemployment cut in half live poker is hurting.

Anecdotally, the economy here in Dallas has been great. Oil took a huge hit and Dallas didn't miss a beat. Poker at the casino is nowhere near where it once was though. Even dealers are feeling the pain as more sophisticated players means lower tips.

Vegas economy has been booming but games there are the worst they've been in the last 5 years at least.

Sent from my KIW-L24 using Tapatalk
A friend of mine is recently without work. He believes there's a winning strategy to roulette (despite me explaining to him over and over again he's going to lose long term). He's been playing more poker recently...

I imagine that when people are suddenly losing jobs, there's a lag before that hits the poker economy... Loss of income is balanced out by extra free time and the thought that gambling is a good idea after job loss (as long as they have some savings, etc, to back them up). Similarly, if the economy is doing as well as you say, I think there will be a lag before people feel confident putting money on a poker table.
pocketzeroes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 04:49 PM   #19762
Dream Crusher
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dream Crusher's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Dallas
Posts: 15,670
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I don't mean to sound all gloom and doom. The low stakes game are still plenty beatable and the players are still awful. There has been a significant contraction at mid stakes level though and it appears the low stakes games have been impacted to some extent.

It should go without saying that the poker community was quite spoiled with super soft games the previous decade+ and so some contraction should not be unexpected.

Sent from my KIW-L24 using Tapatalk
Dream Crusher is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2017, 04:23 AM   #19763
Duke0424
self-banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: The Desert
Posts: 13,365
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

in 2022 everyone will say we were so spoiled in 2017 when the games were so good!

then theyll say it again in 2027
Duke0424 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2017, 10:10 AM   #19764
Avaritia
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
 
Avaritia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Florida
Posts: 12,215
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yea we dont have much to worry about until 2049 when the replicants dominate live poker imo
Avaritia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2017, 10:42 AM   #19765
DeathCabForTootie
Pooh-Bah
 
DeathCabForTootie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: SHR Tunaments
Posts: 5,722
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I played last night (tuesday) where it can be argued 3 of the 9 at the table barely knew the hand rankings. Poker ain't dead, folks.

Spoiler:


Spoiler:


Spoiler:
DeathCabForTootie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2017, 10:43 AM   #19766
Dream Crusher
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dream Crusher's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Dallas
Posts: 15,670
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The day I made those posts I ended up making $4k playing 2/5 and 1/3 and I've made another $4k since so my gut feeling is that the games are still beatable.
Dream Crusher is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2017, 12:24 PM   #19767
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
I played last night (tuesday) where it can be argued 3 of the 9 at the table barely knew the hand rankings. Poker ain't dead, folks.

Spoiler:


Spoiler:


Spoiler:
I'm not questioning whether stuff like this still happens. It clearly does.

The question is whether it happens at the same frequency as before. Ditto for how often the table you are sitting at is very meh as compared to before.

Ghavingawhalesitinyourgamenowonceevery5sessionsins teadofonceevery2sessionslikebeforeisgoingtohaveade vastatingeffectonyourbottomlineG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2017, 12:43 PM   #19768
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The games are tougher than they used to be. I think we can take that as fact. Why are we still discussing it at length?

The thing to discuss is how to adjust and beat the tougher games and continue to win at close to the same win rate as we used to, instead of continuing to play the same way we always have and crying about our lower win rate and higher rake. That's not helping.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2017, 12:46 PM   #19769
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
The thing to discuss is how to adjust and beat the tougher games and continue to win at close to the same win rate as we used to
And my argument is that most people are delusional if they think this is possible.

GimoG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2017, 01:59 PM   #19770
CHICKSDIGLONGBALL
centurion
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 106
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
And my argument is that most people are delusional if they think this is possible.

GimoG
When I first read this I disagreed. Second take, the word 'most' next to people. So your saying it is possible. But we are taking about 1. winnings players 2. winning players that are capable of winning in tough games. Which requires opening up your game to extreme variance and doing things most winning players would never be capable of. That what you mean by most?
CHICKSDIGLONGBALL is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2017, 02:23 PM   #19771
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What we know 100% is not possible is to continue playing the same way you always have in tougher games than you used to play in, and expect to win the same amount.

Waiting for an overpair to stack TP or waiting for a set to stack an overpair will not work anymore. Well, it works, but you wont win as much as you used to.

What we should be doing is to make whatever adjustments to our game that we can to increase our win rates in these tougher games. It can be done if you open your mind and open up your game. It cant be done if you keep playing the same way.

Im not saying your win rate can be the same as it used to be in these tougher games. Im saying it doesn't have to drop significantly. It can be pretty close. You just have to play better than your opponents which is is tougher than it used to be and takes a lot more imagination. You have to exploit people weaknesses and tendencies. ABC play isnt going to get it anymore.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2017, 02:37 PM   #19772
Petrucci
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,265
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
What we know 100% is not possible is to continue playing the same way you always have in tougher games than you used to play in, and expect to win the same amount.

Waiting for an overpair to stack TP or waiting for a set to stack an overpair will not work anymore. Well, it works, but you wont win as much as you used to.

What we should be doing is to make whatever adjustments to our game that we can to increase our win rates in these tougher games. It can be done if you open your mind and open up your game. It cant be done if you keep playing the same way.

Im not saying your win rate can be the same as it used to be in these tougher games. Im saying it doesn't have to drop significantly. It can be pretty close. You just have to play better than your opponents which is is tougher than it used to be and takes a lot more imagination. You have to exploit people weaknesses and tendencies. ABC play isnt going to get it anymore.

+1, good post.

Just want to add that ABC play or strong fundamentals never gets old, even though i know in what context youre using the term ABC. You have to be willing to mix up your lines- not giving the overpairs the chance of herofolding by autoraising your bottom set on the 2-4-9 rainbow flop when facing a C bet.

At least at small stakes like 1-2 or 2-5, you get a pretty huge edge only by not limp calling 3-4 suited or Q10 off from UTG, or to not C bet AQ 4 ways on 7-8-9 flop after raising pre. Stupid -EV **** that i see my opponents doing over and over and over again no matter where i play.

In a world where people put so much stuff from Doug Polk (GTO,balance,range merging, having 32,4 percent bluffs and so on in our range) and other youtubers into the wrong context- like people want to run before they learned to walk properly and the approach to the game get more and more complex: strong fundamentals raises its value in my opinion.
Petrucci is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2017, 02:49 PM   #19773
DeathCabForTootie
Pooh-Bah
 
DeathCabForTootie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: SHR Tunaments
Posts: 5,722
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
What we know 100% is not possible is to continue playing the same way you always have in tougher games than you used to play in, and expect to win the same amount.

Waiting for an overpair to stack TP or waiting for a set to stack an overpair will not work anymore. Well, it works, but you wont win as much as you used to.

What we should be doing is to make whatever adjustments to our game that we can to increase our win rates in these tougher games. It can be done if you open your mind and open up your game. It cant be done if you keep playing the same way.

Im not saying your win rate can be the same as it used to be in these tougher games. Im saying it doesn't have to drop significantly. It can be pretty close. You just have to play better than your opponents which is is tougher than it used to be and takes a lot more imagination. You have to exploit people weaknesses and tendencies. ABC play isnt going to get it anymore.
+2.

I'm nowhere near a crusher, but my WR today in bigger, deeper games is higher than it was when I was playing $1/2. I've studied a lot off the felt and am lucky to have friends who are willing to review hands with me. I feel I work harder off the felt than most of my player pool and I have reaped the rewards.

GG, if a dumbass spazz whale type like me can improve, so can you. However, I feel you're not open to learning new concepts and thus your WR has stagnated.
DeathCabForTootie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2017, 05:02 PM   #19774
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
What we know 100% is not possible is to continue playing the same way you always have in tougher games than you used to play in, and expect to win the same amount.

Waiting for an overpair to stack TP or waiting for a set to stack an overpair will not work anymore. Well, it works, but you wont win as much as you used to.

What we should be doing is to make whatever adjustments to our game that we can to increase our win rates in these tougher games. It can be done if you open your mind and open up your game. It cant be done if you keep playing the same way.

Im not saying your win rate can be the same as it used to be in these tougher games. Im saying it doesn't have to drop significantly. It can be pretty close. You just have to play better than your opponents which is is tougher than it used to be and takes a lot more imagination. You have to exploit people weaknesses and tendencies. ABC play isnt going to get it anymore.
I'm on board with the majority of this post (really, I am).

I simply don't agree with the line you said about your winrate not having to drop significantly / can still be pretty close. My guess is the long term will prove that (if it's provable, it would admittedly be pretty hard to track).

But other than that, yeah, doesn't mean we should roll over and don't have lots of room to get better.

ETA: For example, let's say your snowbirds didn't come back to roost in your game and the games remain kinda meh like they were for the summer (if I've read your PG&C right). Still the rosy outlook, just gotta roll up those sleeves more?

GcluelesswinratesnoobG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 10-18-2017 at 05:18 PM.
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2017, 05:06 PM   #19775
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
+2.

I'm nowhere near a crusher, but my WR today in bigger, deeper games is higher than it was when I was playing $1/2. I've studied a lot off the felt and am lucky to have friends who are willing to review hands with me. I feel I work harder off the felt than most of my player pool and I have reaped the rewards.

GG, if a dumbass spazz whale type like me can improve, so can you. However, I feel you're not open to learning new concepts and thus your WR has stagnated.
Do you think it's fair comparing the results in your bigger deeper games (which I fully admit I would not have a handle on whatsover) versus the smaller BI rake trap of $1/2?

I'm simply comparing the same stakes / BI vs itself x years ago, that's all.

GcluelessstakesnoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:43 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive