Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-06-2017, 03:31 PM   #19701
pocketzeroes
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,333
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by CHICKSDIGLONGBALL View Post
i'm assuming the 2/5 was 1k cap? sick results
Yes, 1k max buyin, occasional straddles.
pocketzeroes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 05:40 PM   #19702
Rich Checkmaker
banned
 
Rich Checkmaker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 2,442
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
It’s prob a little lower. Also factoring in tipping waitress. Recalculating it’s prob around $6.5. I’ll try to get it to around $5/hr moving forward.

How much do you guys think you tip an hr?
if you really want to be frugal with your tips, only tip on hands won at showdown. thats when the dealer did his/her job and dealt you the winning hand. if you win without showdown the dealer didn't do the work you did. tipping $1 on showndown winners is about as cheap as you can go for tips. you could also tip on hands that you won consecutively, for example the 2nd hand in a row you won you could tip.

i used to tip butt loads back in the day. if i won a $500 pot id be tipping $10 at least. i can remember tipping $20-$30 dozens of times after winning big pots. not anymore though, had to put an end to the gravy train.

also instead of always tipping the cashier you can tip on winning days. also i only tip $1 or $2 on food/drink orders.

tipping does have hidden advantages one being that the other players will feel better about losing to you somewhat knowing that you aren't a miser at least. i much prefer losing to a generous tipper myself. sometimes ill tip just because i feel like it will help the other players keep giving up to me..
Rich Checkmaker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 06:20 PM   #19703
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
+1 to what Ava is saying.

This has nothing to do with not understanding equity or Sklansky dollars: but it has to to with how merciless soul crushing negative variance can be in livepoker when you face it at its worst. I would go on the limb to say that many posters on this forum havent come close to seing how bad it can get. Sometimes i have doubts that i have seen it myself- and i have seen alot of insane downswings/runbad. Couple of my worst swings almost made me quit poker 2-3 years ago: almost, but luckily i came back stronger and better than ever. But with more valuable experience on board. Experience that you cant buy for money- you need to _feel_ it yourself.
There's a reason most of the guys that have logged thousands upon thousands of hours all say the same thing: live full-ring poker is one massive variance fest.

As someone who has played more hours than most in this sub and seen both sides of the variance coin I would agree with them.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 06:31 PM   #19704
Petrucci
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,265
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
There's a reason most of the guys that have logged thousands upon thousands of hours all say the same thing: live full-ring poker is one massive variance fest.

As someone who has played more hours than most in this sub and seen both sides of the variance coin I would agree with them.

I have played my fair share of hours in different locations and different countries as well (passing 3K hours logged+ i didnt log my sessions in the first 2 years of playing live)- and i agree to a certain extent.

What i do agree on is that variance (and the countless nuances of this word that we dont usually think about, for example pure card distribution) can be more cruel and soul crushing than many players have any clue of.

That being said, i am not on board with your statement if it means that you cant have any edge, you can never know your winrate or how proffitable of a player you are and so on. Basically i am not on board with using variance as an excuse for bad results over time or a big samplesize. Yes you can run bad for long long stretches, and yes 1K hour sample can look very different for player A and B even though they are at the same level of skill.

But some posters take it too far in my opinion, "blaming" it all on variance if they fail at poker in any sort of way.
Petrucci is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 06:47 PM   #19705
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
That being said, i am not on board with your statement if it means that you cant have any edge, you can never know your winrate or how proffitable of a player you are and so on. Basically i am not on board with using variance as an excuse for bad results over time or a big samplesize. Yes you can run bad for long long stretches, and yes 1K hour sample can look very different for player A and B even though they are at the same level of skill.
Not what I was saying at all.

There is no such thing as a win rate. All you have are observed results from the past and confidence intervals moving forward. And since no two sessions are ever the same (meaning your "conditions" are dynamic and not static) then the confidence intervals you are using are also not going to be terribly accurate for predicting a *future WR.* A variance calculator is a fairly meaningless tool in my opinion wrt live poker.

The more I play the less I care about things that are out of my control. Some people run good, some people run bad, poker like life is not fair and the long run is longer than a lifetime so instead I worry about what I can control - making the best decision possible in each and every hand.

Everything else is randomness.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 06:51 PM   #19706
Petrucci
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,265
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah for sure, i wasnt neccesearily stating that you said exactly that (bolded part) either to be clear Johnny or i didnt mean to put words in your mouth. Just explained some more about my take on this topic.

I am noticing a new trend around the forums where players that give up on poker or change to other things is implying that the variance have all the blame. Like there isnt good or bad players, everyone is equally good/bad- the difference is just who runs good or bad for the next 1 K hours. Wich i think is quite ridicilous and huge exaggeration.

Last edited by Petrucci; 10-06-2017 at 06:57 PM.
Petrucci is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 07:19 PM   #19707
gangip
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 3,079
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Most poker players I know conflate their poor skill with bad luck.

If I have no other information, I'd rather stake the guy who has made $40,000 over 1,000 hours of 2/5 than the guy who has made $39,999 over 1,000 hours of 2/5.
gangip is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 08:36 PM   #19708
DK Barrel
Concept of the Week author
 
DK Barrel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: no gamble, no future
Posts: 6,798
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gangip View Post
Most poker players I know conflate their poor skill with bad luck.

If I have no other information, I'd rather stake the guy who has made $40,000 over 1,000 hours of 2/5 than the guy who has made $39,999 over 1,000 hours of 2/5.
I'd take the 39,999 winner since his records are likely more accurate.
DK Barrel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 09:17 PM   #19709
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
I'd take the 39,999 winner since his records are likely more accurate.
I'd take neither since anybody that's won 40k and needs a stake has some degen life leaks.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 09:22 PM   #19710
DK Barrel
Concept of the Week author
 
DK Barrel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: no gamble, no future
Posts: 6,798
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I'd take neither since anybody that's won 40k and needs a stake has some degen life leaks.
Point taken
DK Barrel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 09:26 PM   #19711
kekeeke
adept
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,191
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I'd take neither since anybody that's won 40k and needs a stake has some degen life leaks.
why?

if i started playing again i'd give staking some serious thoughts, atleast you add value to someone's life & also great motivational/stay on top of your game tool.
kekeeke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 09:42 PM   #19712
meale
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
meale's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 9,840
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Protip: Move to Australia where the dealers will refuse your tips and pay more in rake instead!
meale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 09:43 PM   #19713
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by niceguy22 View Post
Don't think that's true. @27 hands per hour, the average player wins 3 pots per hour. 20% of all players probably win 4 pots per hour or more
I would say that on average bad players win more pots than good players. Good players win bigger pots and more money but less pots overall. At least TAGs do for sure.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 02:56 PM   #19714
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Not what I was saying at all.

There is no such thing as a win rate. All you have are observed results from the past and confidence intervals moving forward. And since no two sessions are ever the same (meaning your "conditions" are dynamic and not static) then the confidence intervals you are using are also not going to be terribly accurate for predicting a *future WR.* A variance calculator is a fairly meaningless tool in my opinion wrt live poker.

The more I play the less I care about things that are out of my control. Some people run good, some people run bad, poker like life is not fair and the long run is longer than a lifetime so instead I worry about what I can control - making the best decision possible in each and every hand.

Everything else is randomness.
+1

Gnicepost,imoG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 04:13 PM   #19715
QuantumSurfer
old hand
 
QuantumSurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Home on the Range
Posts: 1,943
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
Protip: Move to Australia where the dealers will refuse your tips and pay more in rake instead!
Odds of being eaten by a spider or ****-punted by a kangaroo are much higher in Australia. Seriously though, what's the rake structure in your game? Do you get rakeback? Here in Murica we have player rewards cards.
QuantumSurfer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 04:25 PM   #19716
CHICKSDIGLONGBALL
centurion
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 106
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by kekeeke View Post
why?

if i started playing again i'd give staking some serious thoughts, atleast you add value to someone's life & also great motivational/stay on top of your game tool.
I would, just to hard to trust and track live stakes. And i cant think of a way around it.
CHICKSDIGLONGBALL is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 03:11 AM   #19717
YGOchamp
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,517
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Staking anybody for low-stakes is very problematic.

If they're a good player and need a stake, then it's likely because they have life leaks such as poor money management, pit leaks etc -- making it a bad investment

If they're a good player without leaks, they're going to be playing on their own money. The guys who you want to stake are the one's who dont want/need to be staked. They're just giving away free money.

The only situation where it's a slam dunk is somebody who you know is a winning player and either left the game for a while to do X, or maybe spent all their money on a medical emergency or something of the sort.

Point being, it's very difficult to find somebody who's worth staking.

That becomes much different for higher stakes, as there's very legitimate reasons to want to stake a 5/10 crusher into that juicy 25/50/100 game that he just doesn't have the bankroll to support on his own.
YGOchamp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 03:42 AM   #19718
meale
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
meale's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 9,840
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer View Post
Odds of being eaten by a spider or ****-punted by a kangaroo are much higher in Australia. Seriously though, what's the rake structure in your game? Do you get rakeback? Here in Murica we have player rewards cards.
Rake structure is 10% capped at $15. Zero rake back. Zero comp of any sort. Was funny, had a Vegas reg play at our casino recently and he was dumbfounded by how much rake they were taking. He said surely the game was unbeatable, but then he saw just how spastic the level of play can be and changed his mind lol.
meale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 01:07 PM   #19719
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
Rake structure is 10% capped at $15. Zero rake back. Zero comp of any sort. Was funny, had a Vegas reg play at our casino recently and he was dumbfounded by how much rake they were taking. He said surely the game was unbeatable, but then he saw just how spastic the level of play can be and changed his mind lol.
The question is whether the level of lol spew will last long term. I'm not sure how long the game has been running in your market, but most games eventually calm down considerably, with the spewers/losers eventually going broke and leaving the game or tightening up to where they don't lose as much (at which point your rake will become devastating). There is not an unlimited pipeline of spewers waiting to discover the game; most people who have interest in playing it have already done so.

Genjoyitwhileitlasts,imoG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 01:41 PM   #19720
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I don't know about that. I know some spewers that have been punting stacks consistently for *years*.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 01:45 PM   #19721
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I don't know about that. I know some spewers that have been punting stacks consistently for *years*.
Of course, there will always be exceptions. But to think that that you are going to have the same overall consistent level of spewyness now that you will in 5 years is pretty optimistic. If for every 10 big spewers, if half quit the game and the half of the remaining half adjust to lose not nearly as much, that will have a pretty devastating affect on our bottom line.

GimoG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 01:56 PM   #19722
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I don't know, the overall spewyness of my local games (home + Charity rooms, MI thing) hasn't gone down much in the 4 years that I've been playing them consistently, and while the casino conditions aren't as good as they were in 2008 .... they're pretty close.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 02:05 PM   #19723
meale
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
meale's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 9,840
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Not forgetting most of the profit is fresh meat, not recurrent spewers.
meale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 02:07 PM   #19724
QuantumSurfer
old hand
 
QuantumSurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Home on the Range
Posts: 1,943
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

@ Meale, I thought I had it bad with the house taking ~$170/hr off each table. Though that involves free food, player's rewards for convenience junk, and a few places that'll give you cash back ~$250/ month. Kinda wanna crowdfund an Aussie casino right about now.

@ GG, If their economy is good, I'm not surprised there are people actually having fun gambling. I get what you're saying about the progression of the game, but you make it sound like no one will ever pick up poker anymore. I do see the game picking up new players. They usually have a clue to some extent, but the slow nature of live poker & unavailability of online games makes learning much harder.
QuantumSurfer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 02:22 PM   #19725
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer View Post
but you make it sound like no one will ever pick up poker anymore.
But isn't that sorta the way it is?

NL poker has been in our market pretty much right after Moneymaker. Everyone who has wanted to try out poker since the poker boom has had a decade+ to give it a try.

I mean, obviously you'll still get some late comers to the party. But it's clearly past midnight.

Gwouldn'tbankonanyhotchicksshowingupanytimesoon,im oG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:50 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive