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Old 09-30-2017, 03:54 PM   #19651
KatoKrazy
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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You were coolered for 6/10 hands for stacks at least 2 times? I find that hard to believe. I mean it's certainly possible, but hard to believe.
Of course you don't believe it, you've probably never been there. Most people that are currently in poker at any given time are there because they have ran exceedingly well above expectation.

I've also won 5+ stacks in one orbit on more than one occasion.
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Old 09-30-2017, 04:41 PM   #19652
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KatoKrazy is correct. Absurd runbad is certainly possible, and many players havent experienced it yet. If i am being honest, i probably havent experienced the absolute worst downswings myself yet, even though i have been through some stretches that makes your body almost numb and stunned when it happens.

I have been running 3 consecutive KK into AA in the same session, in the span of 2 hours.

I have flopped 5 sets in one session, having all of em lose to gut shots for stacks hitting on the turn/river- in the span of 3 hours.

I have been on the wrong end of set over set 3 times in a row in the same session, in the span of 3 hours.

That is just a couple of examples to illustrate how bad it can get if the doom switch really turns on. And if it happens, i can promise you the buyins keep flying and in many situations its simply nothing you can do.
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Old 09-30-2017, 04:51 PM   #19653
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I've spent the past 30 hrs losing 1000bb. The 30 hrs prior I won 1,400. I don't have such drastic swings often, but they happen because they can.
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Old 09-30-2017, 04:53 PM   #19654
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Of course you don't believe it, you've probably never been there. Most people that are currently in poker at any given time are there because they have ran exceedingly well above expectation.

I've also won 5+ stacks in one orbit on more than one occasion.
What constitutes a cooler to you? To me, it's two pair or better being beat no straight/noflush/unpaired board, or flush over flush, or set over set.
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Old 09-30-2017, 06:12 PM   #19655
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Chumbardo... have you ever seen a fish build a giant stack over the course of an hour just by getting lucky? If you've played more than 10 hrs, I'm sure you have. So if a fish can get that lucky in one session, you sure as hell can and will get that unlucky in a session as well.
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Old 09-30-2017, 06:47 PM   #19656
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Of course you don't believe it, you've probably never been there. Most people that are currently in poker at any given time are there because they have ran exceedingly well above expectation.

I've also won 5+ stacks in one orbit on more than one occasion.
I dunno man 6 buy ins in one orbit? I posted some br management questions recently, id love to hear your opinion on live BRM for going pro.
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Old 09-30-2017, 08:29 PM   #19657
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Chumbardo... have you ever seen a fish build a giant stack over the course of an hour just by getting lucky? If you've played more than 10 hrs, I'm sure you have. So if a fish can get that lucky in one session, you sure as hell can and will get that unlucky in a session as well.
I get that. Certainly. but that's different from losing 6 buy-ins in one orbit. I'd wager it's more likely for you to get a bad beat jackpot then to get coolered 6 times in one orbit. And he said that's happened more than one time. Usually fish getting lucky is them donking their stack in with a gutshot, some kind of draw, or two pair draw multiple times - spots where they had at least 18% equity. Hell, the chances of getting a pair and hitting a set is .7%, and the chances of getting set over set is at a 10 handed table is about .028%. Which is roughly 7/25000. Again, I don't know what his definition of a cooler is, but I can easily fold aces to aggression on the flop and don't get stacked when he hits his set. To me, a cooler is a hand where it's mandatory that you get it in. Again, it's certainly possible he's in the top .1% of run bad. But in my experience, poker players tend to exaggerate these kinds of things.
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Old 09-30-2017, 08:37 PM   #19658
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I've lost more than 6 buy-ins in one hand. LMAO @ needing an entire orbit to do that.
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Old 09-30-2017, 09:28 PM   #19659
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I've lost more than 6 buy-ins in one hand. LMAO @ needing an entire orbit to do that.
I mean I've lost 9 buy-ins in a hand. But that's different from re-buying, getting coolered, rebuying, getting coolered again, then repeat for 6 hands. Well with 3 or 4 breaks in between, but still.
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Old 09-30-2017, 10:14 PM   #19660
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I've lost more than 6 buy-ins in one hand. LMAO @ needing an entire orbit to do that.
Me too, but that isnt what we are talking about. Getting stacked 6x in one orbit is nuts.
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Old 10-01-2017, 01:58 AM   #19661
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The original poster said he never had a $3k downswing. If you've lost $3k in a hand, then you've had a $3k downswing.
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Old 10-01-2017, 02:21 AM   #19662
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The original poster said he never had a $3k downswing. If you've lost $3k in a hand, then you've had a $3k downswing.
Not really... Hard to quantify that as a downswing if you still win money that session. Your giraffe still goes up.
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Old 10-01-2017, 02:33 AM   #19663
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One could get stacked 6 times in an orbit and still have a winning session. Both are downswings though, regardless of whether you acknowledge them.
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Old 10-01-2017, 03:11 AM   #19664
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If you were poker-tracking/hold'em managing your hands live, any loss would be a downswing, be it one hand or one thousand. Your results are tracked hand to hand in an absolute sense.
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Old 10-01-2017, 03:31 AM   #19665
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Yeah but they're not.
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Old 10-01-2017, 03:34 AM   #19666
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Live poker is tracked in sessions I guess. Which means when you look at downswings, it's a function of how many sessions or hours you ran bad for.
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Old 10-01-2017, 09:38 AM   #19667
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I like reading posts discussing the minutiae with regards to tracking w/r
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Old 10-01-2017, 09:46 AM   #19668
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I like reading posts discussing the minutiae with regards to tracking w/r
I just like the word "minutiae"
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Old 10-01-2017, 12:56 PM   #19669
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I mean I've lost 9 buy-ins in a hand. But that's different from re-buying, getting coolered, rebuying, getting coolered again, then repeat for 6 hands. Well with 3 or 4 breaks in between, but still.
No, I mean actually losing 6 separate full buyins in one orbit, all with a set or better. This happened at Suit's casino, and I think he was there that day bringing me a fresh stack every minute or so lol.
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Old 10-02-2017, 02:27 PM   #19670
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No, I mean actually losing 6 separate full buyins in one orbit, all with a set or better. This happened at Suit's casino, and I think he was there that day bringing me a fresh stack every minute or so lol.
So you got 6 pairs in 9 hands? That's running good. I used to play 13k hands a day online and have been playing in casino the last 15 years and I've never seen anyone get close to that. The most I've probably seen from a non fish is 3 times in a orbit. I guess you can say it could have happened when some people leave and don't re buy. Doesn't mean its impossible but most likely a huge over exaggeration that we all do when we are running bad.
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Old 10-05-2017, 07:12 PM   #19671
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Finally hit 1000 hours. Took me about a year. Planning on playing between 1500-1800 over the next 365 days.

[IMG][/IMG]


I started off on a major upswing. I was playing VERY exploitative and running very well obviously (I've said this before but I mainly play an overbluff/overfold strategy live).

Then went on a really long breakeven stretch where I had the worst downswing of the 1000 hr sample. This is literally when I started to play more 6 max cash games online and I truly believe it was the main cause of this bad stretch. (The mindset/strategy of beating 6max online and 2/5 Live are completely different). It was and still is very difficult to juggle the different thought processes required to beat both games.

I'm curious to see what my next 1000 hours look like. I would like to hope that my winrate will continue to increase. But I know it's mainly wishful thinking + unrealistic to think 10+bb/hr at live poker is sustainable.

Also, it's pretty eye opening how much tipping cuts into winrate. If I had to make a rough guess I'm tipping about $8/hr. That's $8K over this span! I'm definitely going to make a conscious effort to cut down on that.

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Old 10-05-2017, 07:25 PM   #19672
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Finally hit 1000 hours. Took me about a year.

[IMG][/IMG]


I started off on a major upswing. I was playing VERY exploitative and running very well obviously (I've said this before but I mainly play an overbluff/overfold strategy live).

Then went on a really long breakeven stretch where I had the worst downswing of the 1000 hr sample. This is literally when I started to play more 6 max cash games online and I truly believe it was the main cause of this bad stretch. (The mindset/strategy of beating 6max online and 2/5 Live are completely different). It was and still is very difficult to juggle the different thought processes required to beat both games.

I'm curious to see what my next 1000 hours look like. I would like to hope that my winrate will continue to increase. But I know it's mainly wishful thinking + unrealistic to think 10+bb/hr at live poker is sustainable.

Also, it's pretty eye opening how much tipping cuts into winrate. If I had to make a rough guess I'm tipping about $8/hr. That's $8K over this span! I'm definitely going to make a conscious effort to cut down on that.
I couldnt agree more. Lots of good online players get eaten alive playing live for a variety of reasons, even though live players are much worse than online players overall.

For me its kind of the same way with golf. I can hit a driver all day long straight as an arrow. I can also hit irons pretty well....as long as Im hitting only irons. When I have to go back and forth between a driver and irons over and over like you do when you actually play golf, its a whole different story. Suddenly its Slice City.
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Old 10-05-2017, 08:33 PM   #19673
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^ Yeah, for example you can discount a lot of hands from an opponents range online with a high degree of confidence. Live there are players that can have literally anything in any situation... A couple weeks ago there were 5 limp and the BB checked with KK. He ended up winning a good medium sized pot and was bragging how he liked to mix it up lol.

Online there are a lot of spots where you have to bluff catch with a decent frequency. Whereas in live play there are a good amount of players that close to never bluff on the river.

There are also more multiway bloated pots live (due to the larger standard opening sizes and the abundance of recs playing 50/10 PF).


Are you still crushing Mike? I remember you posted a graph a little while back.
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Old 10-05-2017, 09:14 PM   #19674
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^ Yeah, for example you can discount a lot of hands from an opponents range online with a high degree of confidence. Live there are players that can have literally anything in any situation... A couple weeks ago there were 5 limp and the BB checked with KK. He ended up winning a good medium sized pot and was bragging how he liked to mix it up lol.

Online there are a lot of spots where you have to bluff catch with a decent frequency. Whereas in live play there are a good amount of players that close to never bluff on the river.

There are also more multiway bloated pots live (due to the larger standard opening sizes and the abundance of recs playing 50/10 PF).


Are you still crushing Mike? I remember you posted a graph a little while back.
I went thru about 150 hrs of the most horrific run bad Ive ever come across. It seems mostly to be over now. Also, the snowbirds are returning to Florida so I have high hopes for the next several months.
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Old 10-05-2017, 09:34 PM   #19675
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I went thru about 150 hrs of the most horrific run bad Ive ever come across. It seems mostly to be over now. Also, the snowbirds are returning to Florida so I have high hopes for the next several months.
That sucks :/

That's interesting and makes sense how your games get better during the winter. I play in North East so the games are noticeably dying down now.
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