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Old 09-29-2017, 01:56 PM   #19626
CHICKSDIGLONGBALL
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Retiring as soon as I feel I have enough bankroll to play 1/3nl 500 buy in without any risk of ruin. Lets say i'm winning ~$20/hr and capable of playing 2000-3000 hrs a yr after putting work to the side. How much of a bankroll do I need? Whatever number I come up with, everything in profit over that number will go to living expenses and 2/5 shots...
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Old 09-29-2017, 02:49 PM   #19627
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Good luck playing 3000 hours of 1/3 and not wanting to kill yourself
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Old 09-29-2017, 02:59 PM   #19628
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Good luck playing 3000 hours of 1/3 and not wanting to kill yourself
It wont be much 1/3. just always want to be able to fall back to 1/3. A lot of hrs wont ever be a problem.
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Old 09-29-2017, 03:06 PM   #19629
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I get in about 500 hours a year pretty consistently as a regular degen at $1/2 and $1/3 and now an annoyingly common ($1/2 NLHE )to ($1/2 NLHE + $1/2 w/ $5 bring in RxR) to ($1/2/5bring PLO) game (which I hate). If I tried to play 3000 hours in a year I'd definitely want to kill myself, or I'd die of second hand smoke + ****ty casino coffee.
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Old 09-29-2017, 03:18 PM   #19630
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Originally Posted by CHICKSDIGLONGBALL View Post
Retiring as soon as I feel I have enough bankroll to play 1/3nl 500 buy in without any risk of ruin. Lets say i'm winning ~$20/hr and capable of playing 2000-3000 hrs a yr after putting work to the side. How much of a bankroll do I need? Whatever number I come up with, everything in profit over that number will go to living expenses and 2/5 shots...
You should be using your own data to answer these questions. How many hours of personal history do you have? What is your bb per hour? Standard deviation? Longest break even stretch? Biggest down swing?

It is not a good idea to use anyone else's data and experiences to answer these questions for yourself. Use your own data and play around with a risk of ruin calculator.

But since you asked, I'll give my 2 cents..

I recently posted just shy of 2,500 hours mixed between 1/2 and 1/3 from playing as a serious weekend rec with great daytime career. Over that time I've had I think $2k downswings about 4 times and break even stretches of 100 hours more often than I'd like. Overall solid winning numbers though.

Based on that, I'd go with $20k bankroll plus at least 6 months of living expenses.

Live low stakes is awesome as easy second income. Think it would suck if it was my only source of revenue.

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Old 09-29-2017, 03:27 PM   #19631
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Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
You should be using your own data to answer these questions. How many hours of personal history do you have? What is your bb per hour? Standard deviation? Longest break even stretch? Biggest down swing?

It is not a good idea to use anyone else's data and experiences to answer these questions for yourself. Use your own data and play around with a risk of ruin calculator.

But since you asked, I'll give my 2 cents..

I recently posted just shy of 2,500 hours mixed between 1/2 and 1/3 from playing as a serious weekend rec with great daytime career. Over that time I've had I think $2k downswings about 4 times and break even stretches of 100 hours more often than I'd like. Overall solid winning numbers though.

Based on that, I'd go with $20k bankroll plus at least 6 months of living expenses.

Live low stakes is awesome as easy second income. Think it would suck if it was my only source of revenue.

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I do all of that and have my own number in my head which caught a lot of heat and debate from friends i respect in poker. 2k downswing is only 4 buy ins in my game. Not bad, i'd bet my std dev is a lil higher then yours. Also how accurate can std dev be if we arent tracking our results each hour? What is your std dev and how is it tracked? I'd guess an app.
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Old 09-29-2017, 03:36 PM   #19632
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Originally Posted by CHICKSDIGLONGBALL View Post
I do all of that and have my own number in my head which caught a lot of heat and debate from friends i respect in poker. 2k downswing is only 4 buy ins in my game. Not bad, i'd bet my std dev is a lil highed then yours. Also how accurate can std dev be if we arent tracking our results each hour?
The 1/3 game i play in is $500 cap. I always but on for max and top off during sessions every time I'm at $475 or less. Don't think I've ever had a $3k down swing.

If you read far enough back in this thread toy will see formula for calculating std, not as arcuate as recording stats every hour but it is close enough for this.

Since you've got your own number in your head, how does it compare with my unscientific seat of my pants opinion? I'm genuinely curious as part time poker will be retirement bonus money for me as well in the not too too distant future.

And what does your key data look like?

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Old 09-29-2017, 03:52 PM   #19633
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by CHICKSDIGLONGBALL View Post
I do all of that and have my own number in my head which caught a lot of heat and debate from friends i respect in poker. 2k downswing is only 4 buy ins in my game. Not bad, i'd bet my std dev is a lil higher then yours. Also how accurate can std dev be if we arent tracking our results each hour? What is your std dev and how is it tracked? I'd guess an app.
Frankly, the std dev stuff is all bull****, imho, pretty much because it is assuming your game conditions are going to stay constant thru out (which they are very unlikely to). This is simply based on my own experience based on my results only, but after booking a very respectable winrate of x over my first 2000 hours I'm now ~400 hours from 4000 hours where I'll likely book a winrate of < x/2 over the second stint of 2000 hours. Course, this will be over ~8 years, but the point remains.

Bottom line: game conditions change. Expecting past results to be a somewhat reliable indicator (i.e. within a standard deviation) of what future results will be is kinda meh.

Gjustoneman'signorantopinionG
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Old 09-29-2017, 03:56 PM   #19634
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this **** getting harder all the time guys, why you want to play cards with bunch of old men and only make $20 a hour? jeez set the sights a little higher at least
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Old 09-29-2017, 04:00 PM   #19635
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this **** getting harder all the time guys, why you want to play cards with bunch of old men and only make $20 a hour? jeez set the sights a little higher at least
Hey! What if you are a retired old man?

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Old 09-29-2017, 04:04 PM   #19636
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Frankly, the std dev stuff is all bull****, imho, pretty much because it is assuming your game conditions are going to stay constant thru out (which they are very unlikely to). This is simply based on my own experience based on my results only, but after booking a very respectable winrate of x over my first 2000 hours I'm now ~400 hours from 4000 hours where I'll likely book a winrate of < x/2 over the second stint of 2000 hours. Course, this will be over ~8 years, but the point remains.

Bottom line: game conditions change. Expecting past results to be a somewhat reliable indicator (i.e. within a standard deviation) of what future results will be is kinda meh.

Gjustoneman'signorantopinionG
Variance/Std dev is very good to know/understand IMO... For me, it mostly helps me remember that if I've had a particularly good or bad 20-40 hours, even 100-150 hour run, that it's kinda meaningless. There are a couple friends and family members that I share my results with when they ask, but they are usually so fixated on the last 1 or 2 sessions or whatever... Like, "oh you made $250/hour! That's awesome." Ummm no, that's not how this works. Then I have to explain variance to them -- and I can even assert things like hey I could play thirty 5-hour sessions and have about this probability of being down money based on my results.
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Old 09-29-2017, 04:10 PM   #19637
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this **** getting harder all the time guys, why you want to play cards with bunch of old men and only make $20 a hour? jeez set the sights a little higher at least
Some great intel guys. I'll ans questions later. As for this if you read my post the point if me having a number is so anything over that i'm playing higher. so if my number is say 50k. if i have 53k ill play 10/10 with 3k. So i'm never giving back to my 1/3 roll minus when there are no higher or better games running.
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Old 09-29-2017, 04:19 PM   #19638
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Variance/Std dev is very good to know/understand IMO... For me, it mostly helps me remember that if I've had a particularly good or bad 20-40 hours, even 100-150 hour run, that it's kinda meaningless. There are a couple friends and family members that I share my results with when they ask, but they are usually so fixated on the last 1 or 2 sessions or whatever... Like, "oh you made $250/hour! That's awesome." Ummm no, that's not how this works. Then I have to explain variance to them -- and I can even assert things like hey I could play thirty 5-hour sessions and have about this probability of being down money based on my results.
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Old 09-29-2017, 04:22 PM   #19639
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Old 09-29-2017, 06:52 PM   #19640
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

20-25 buyins + living expenses seems okay if you're a decent winner.
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Old 09-29-2017, 07:23 PM   #19641
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The 1/3 game i play in is $500 cap. I always but on for max and top off during sessions every time I'm at $475 or less. Don't think I've ever had a $3k down swing.

If you read far enough back in this thread toy will see formula for calculating std, not as arcuate as recording stats every hour but it is close enough for this.

Since you've got your own number in your head, how does it compare with my unscientific seat of my pants opinion? I'm genuinely curious as part time poker will be retirement bonus money for me as well in the not too too distant future.

And what does your key data look like?

Sent from my SM-G955U1 using Tapatalk
up a lil under 14k in 512 hours at 1/3. Last November I played 2/5 1k buy in for 3.5 weeks straight pretty much, minimal sleep and won 31k in 285 hours. I took a month off of work for that. Not a huge sample, was definitly running well. I believe that these numbers are not sustainable but not far off in 250bb+ poker. My number was 50k including life expenses. I can keep these very low and grind super high hours. I am thinking my number should be more like 30k now, especially considering the minimal expenses I have and I can keep down if necessary.

Do you think it is worth setting an alarm every hour to track STD dev? I feel like you would need a huge sample. I also don't like to think to much in terms of cash per hour. The key to low stakes for me has been recognizing what kind of table I am at and adapting. You need to know when to turn it up and create some pots or just sit back and let the animals and cards to there thing. Then just making the best decision each hand/street and ignoring the results/variance.
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Old 09-29-2017, 07:24 PM   #19642
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20-25 buyins + living expenses seems okay if you're a decent winner.
Love your PGC, good stuff. 6 months living expenses? 3? 12?

Also I think there is a big difference if you have 25 buy ins for say 2/5 and living expenses for 6 months. And you plan on staying at 2/5 so as you profit your roll grows then having 15k and living expenses for 1/3 but everything over 15k goes to higher stakes.

Last edited by CHICKSDIGLONGBALL; 09-29-2017 at 07:30 PM.
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Old 09-29-2017, 07:35 PM   #19643
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Originally Posted by CHICKSDIGLONGBALL View Post
up a lil under 14k in 512 hours at 1/3. Last November I played 2/5 1k buy in for 3.5 weeks straight pretty much, minimal sleep and won 31k in 285 hours. I took a month off of work for that. Not a huge sample, was definitly running well. I believe that these numbers are not sustainable but not far off in 250bb+ poker. My number was 50k including life expenses. I can keep these very low and grind super high hours. I am thinking my number should be more like 30k now, especially considering the minimal expenses I have and I can keep down if necessary.

Do you think it is worth setting an alarm every hour to track STD dev? I feel like you would need a huge sample. I also don't like to think to much in terms of cash per hour. The key to low stakes for me has been recognizing what kind of table I am at and adapting. You need to know when to turn it up and create some pots or just sit back and let the animals and cards to there thing. Then just making the best decision each hand/street and ignoring the results/variance.
Think it will be near unanimous opinion that your sample size is so small as to be meaningless.

Recording hourly results is a waste of time. You can use formula posted several times previously in the thread should be good enough. Not the be all and end all, just one of many data points to consider.

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Old 09-29-2017, 07:43 PM   #19644
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Think it will be near unanimous opinion that your sample size is so small as to be meaningless.

Recording hourly results is a waste of time. You can use formula posted several times previously in the thread should be good enough. Not the be all and end all, just one of many data points to consider.

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small sample yes, meaningless no. Not to many guys I play with are up 45k in 800 hours or capable of it.
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Old 09-29-2017, 07:49 PM   #19645
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small sample yes, meaningless no. Not to many guys I play with are up 45k in 800 hours or capable of it.
You asked for opinions. Congrats on the 800 hours.

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Old 09-29-2017, 08:18 PM   #19646
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Retiring as soon as I feel I have enough bankroll to play 1/3nl 500 buy in without any risk of ruin. Lets say i'm winning ~$20/hr and capable of playing 2000-3000 hrs a yr after putting work to the side.
Playing 2000 hours of poker a year doesn't sound like retirement at all! That being said, if you are seriously retiring, I wouldn't consider doing so without at least a 7 figure net worth. The exact amount would depend on your age and your spending habits. You should probably consult a financial advisor.
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Old 09-29-2017, 08:22 PM   #19647
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Playing 2000 hours of poker a year doesn't sound like retirement at all! That being said, if you are seriously retiring, I wouldn't consider doing so without at least a 7 figure net worth. The exact amount would depend on your age and your spending habits. You should probably consult a financial advisor.
Will probably keep job around until I clear 6 figures liquid.
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Old 09-29-2017, 10:43 PM   #19648
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Love your PGC, good stuff. 6 months living expenses? 3? 12?

Also I think there is a big difference if you have 25 buy ins for say 2/5 and living expenses for 6 months. And you plan on staying at 2/5 so as you profit your roll grows then having 15k and living expenses for 1/3 but everything over 15k goes to higher stakes.
Cheers 6 months imo is more than fine. I think in general people are pretty nitty when it comes to live BRM. And yeah as you say once you profit a bit, your bankroll pads itself out.
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Old 09-30-2017, 03:47 PM   #19649
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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The 1/3 game i play in is $500 cap. I always but on for max and top off during sessions every time I'm at $475 or less. Don't think I've ever had a $3k down swing.
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So basically you've just never ran all that bad. I've gotten coolered majorly for stacks for more buyins than that in one orbit on more than one occasion.
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Old 09-30-2017, 03:50 PM   #19650
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So basically you've just never ran all that bad. I've gotten coolered majorly for stacks for more buyins than that in one orbit on more than one occasion.
You were coolered for 6/10 hands for stacks at least 2 times? I find that hard to believe. I mean it's certainly possible, but hard to believe.
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