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Old 09-13-2017, 12:54 AM   #19551
meale
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Gratz man. You'll learn a lot over the next little while playing full time. Make sure you note down awkward spots and hands every time they happen and review them incessantly after your session, even if you've played for the last 10 hours and just want to sleep! Do you have a PGC?

I would say deciding to play full time after going on a 15k heater is optimistic but as you say, you have other options so may as well follow the dream while you can!
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Old 09-13-2017, 09:13 AM   #19552
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4500$ downswing

Had a pretty good year so far, just playing weekends and nights sometimes. Have played around 350 hours this year and have won around 20,000$.
But this weekend at Playground I had a 4500$ downswing over 35 hours playing 2/5. Those 350 hrs are my first 350 hrs at 2/5. Had some bad beats. All in with 99 pre, got called by ace 3 and lost a 1200$. Called a bluff with top pair on the turn and lost 1500$ to the guy hitting a gut shot. Made some mistakes, had some bad beats. Anyways, my question is, playing 2/5 live cashgames, is a 4500$ downswing abnormal. Like I know it shouldn't happen often, I know there are holes in my game just like everyone else's. But is it something that just happens? Also at what point do I see my true profit. I know 350 hours does not show my true profit. Before this I was making 57/hr, I know it doesn't represent my true profit. How many hours do people generally think represent true profit?
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Old 09-13-2017, 02:05 PM   #19553
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Gratz man. You'll learn a lot over the next little while playing full time. Make sure you note down awkward spots and hands every time they happen and review them incessantly after your session, even if you've played for the last 10 hours and just want to sleep! Do you have a PGC?

I would say deciding to play full time after going on a 15k heater is optimistic but as you say, you have other options so may as well follow the dream while you can!
I don't do 10 hr sessions, but yeah.. obviously I take notes. Great point on me being overly optimistic. I don't have any delusions about the fact that I can easily fail and that I'm really far from a well tuned robotic grinder. What does PGC stand for?
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Old 09-13-2017, 02:17 PM   #19554
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Poker goals and challenges forum. Where people basically keep blogs of their poker progress.

It is the single biggest collective of information on 2p2 showing you to not go pro.
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Old 09-13-2017, 02:46 PM   #19555
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Poker goals and challenges forum. Where people basically keep blogs of their poker progress.

It is the single biggest collective of information on 2p2 showing you to not go pro.
lol
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Old 09-13-2017, 03:07 PM   #19556
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Gratz man. You'll learn a lot over the next little while playing full time. Make sure you note down awkward spots and hands every time they happen and review them incessantly after your session, even if you've played for the last 10 hours and just want to sleep! Do you have a PGC?

I would say deciding to play full time after going on a 15k heater is optimistic but as you say, you have other options so may as well follow the dream while you can!
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Poker goals and challenges forum. Where people basically keep blogs of their poker progress.

It is the single biggest collective of information on 2p2 showing you to not go pro.
LOL. Reading every page of Meale's thred right now.
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Old 09-13-2017, 03:21 PM   #19557
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Poker goals and challenges forum. Where people basically keep blogs of their poker progress.

It is the single biggest collective of information on 2p2 showing you to not go pro.
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Old 09-13-2017, 07:07 PM   #19558
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Re: 4500$ downswing

Depends what you are buying in for but if $500 cap a $4500 downswing is pretty bad but not abnormal. I lose $3k all the time.

Id start being interested in someones win rate around 3k hours, and give them the attaboy at around 10k hours if they were still a winning player and hadn't committed suicide.
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Old 09-13-2017, 07:17 PM   #19559
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Re: 4500$ downswing

By my count you still have a 9 BB/hr "win-rate." Needless to say 350 hours is meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

There is no true profit. All you have are observed results and confidence intervals. But at the end of the day no two sessions are ever alike and therefore you'll never have an expected wintate.
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Old 09-13-2017, 07:28 PM   #19560
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Re: 4500$ downswing

Games conditions always change ability always changes there is no way to ever know your winrate, just keep playing and hope you do not wind up homeless.
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Old 09-13-2017, 08:27 PM   #19561
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Re: 4500$ downswing

I've had two $7000 downswings at 2/5 $600 cap in around 1000 hours. I still won $45/h over that period. It happens.
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Old 09-13-2017, 10:40 PM   #19562
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LOL. Reading every page of Meale's thred right now.
Do it! And DO go pro!

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Depends what you are buying in for but if $500 cap a $4500 downswing is pretty bad but not abnormal. I lose $3k all the time.

Id start being interested in someones win rate around 3k hours, and give them the attaboy at around 10k hours if they were still a winning player and hadn't committed suicide.
Yeah agreed, about 10x the 350 hour sample might give you a ballpark. I don't know of anyone who's logged 10k hours in this game, but if it can be done, I imagine that'll be a fair enough estimate to maybe 2-3bb/hr.
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Old 09-13-2017, 10:43 PM   #19563
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Re: 4500$ downswing

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I've had two $7000 downswings at 2/5 $600 cap in around 1000 hours. I still won $45/h over that period. It happens.
Kind of amazes me when I hear of this sort of stuff. 14BI downswings in a 120bb cap game probably aren't super standard and to have two in such a tiny sample and still win at 9bb/hr? Kinda perplexes me tbh.
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Old 09-13-2017, 10:47 PM   #19564
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Yeah agreed, about 10x the 350 hour sample might give you a ballpark. I don't know of anyone who's logged 10k hours in this game, but if it can be done, I imagine that'll be a fair enough estimate to maybe 2-3bb/hr.
Kind of cross posting with your pg&c, but i believe dgaf was around 20k hours iirc
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Old 09-13-2017, 11:00 PM   #19565
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Kind of cross posting with your pg&c, but i believe dgaf was around 20k hours iirc
Logged!? Where TF is this giraffe!?
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Old 09-13-2017, 11:02 PM   #19566
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Im well over 10k
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Old 09-13-2017, 11:14 PM   #19567
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Im well over 10k
Not that you're obligated to or anything, but how come we never see 10k+ samples posted ITT etc? Or have I just missed them...
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Old 09-13-2017, 11:27 PM   #19568
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Re: 4500$ downswing

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Kind of amazes me when I hear of this sort of stuff. 14BI downswings in a 120bb cap game probably aren't super standard and to have two in such a tiny sample and still win at 9bb/hr? Kinda perplexes me tbh.
I was looking at Bart Hansen's graphs on his website. Never went more than 10k down playing 5/10. Some people...
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Old 09-13-2017, 11:34 PM   #19569
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Re: 4500$ downswing

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I was looking at Bart Hansen's graphs on his website. Never went more than 10k down playing 5/10. Some people...
Link to giraffe? I guess different styles, different caps, different standard deviations. No going on a 10BI downer at 5/10 over what sample? That's kinda absurd.
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Old 09-13-2017, 11:53 PM   #19570
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Re: 4500$ downswing

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Link to giraffe? I guess different styles, different caps, different standard deviations. No going on a 10BI downer at 5/10 over what sample? That's kinda absurd.
I recall finding a graph somewhere, but just go through the 500 hr challenges he sets up for himself in this link. I've heard him say in some of his podcasts that he hasn't had worse than a 10k downswing over like 1.5k hrs doing 5/10 at Commerce. Considering what he does for a living, I find it hard to believe that's all the hours he's ever put into 5/10, but it is what it is. He has mentioned that he's had $50k downswings playing 10/20 however.
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Old 09-14-2017, 12:07 AM   #19571
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Re: 4500$ downswing

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I recall finding a graph somewhere, but just go through the 500 hr challenges he sets up for himself in this link. I've heard him say in some of his podcasts that he hasn't had worse than a 10k downswing over like 1.5k hrs doing 5/10 at Commerce. Considering what he does for a living, I find it hard to believe that's all the hours he's ever put into 5/10, but it is what it is. He has mentioned that he's had $50k downswings playing 10/20 however.
True, ty, will check it out.
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Old 09-14-2017, 12:19 PM   #19572
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I've been on a $80k downswing in ~2 months playing a mix of 5/10/20 NLHE and 5/5/10/20 PLO at my local casino (play twice a week) and 10/25/50 PLO in Vegas.. was not fun
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Old 09-14-2017, 12:25 PM   #19573
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I've been on a $80k downswing in ~2 months playing a mix of 5/10/20 NLHE and 5/5/10/20 PLO at my local casino (play twice a week) and 10/25/50 PLO in Vegas.. was not fun
Where do you play and what do you look like?

Asking for a friend
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Old 09-14-2017, 12:34 PM   #19574
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Not that you're obligated to or anything, but how come we never see 10k+ samples posted ITT etc? Or have I just missed them...
When you combine that most people don't keep records and extremely few players actually can consistently win at poker, it isn't very surprising. On top of that, the older school players knew the last thing you wanted to do is let people at the table know how much you won. I'd prefer that people believe I'm a break even player at best, like most of the rest of them. I just get lucky a lot.
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Old 09-14-2017, 12:47 PM   #19575
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$80k doesn't seem to be that bad for those stakes of PLO.
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