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Old 09-03-2017, 02:51 PM   #19526
niceguy22
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances



Pic shows results, all at $1/$2. In 2017, winrate is $31.72/hr over 504 hours. Overall, Im at $23.94/hr over 790 hrs for a $18,915 total profit.

I think my game format is good, (buyin up to $400, utg straddle allowed for $4 to $10) and $6 taken for rake. But I think I made some large strides this year compared to last. I feel like at the beginning of 2016, I saw maybe 60% of what was going on at a table, and now I think I'm closer to 80%, if that makes any sense. That being said, im sure im on the better side of variance overall so luck is playing its part.
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Old 09-03-2017, 09:07 PM   #19527
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Your photobucket range is too tight.
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Old 09-03-2017, 11:20 PM   #19528
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I tried my best. I give up
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Old 09-04-2017, 12:09 AM   #19529
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Just don't use photobucket anymore. There are other photo hosting websites. I generally use tinypic and it doesn't even require an account.
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Old 09-09-2017, 03:39 PM   #19530
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Question about winrates in different structure games...

I split my time between 120bb cap and 200bb cap games. In the 120 cap, most players have little clue and there's a good amount of spazztards at the table. At worst, there's 3 other players that have some sort of an idea of what they're doing, but still make huge errors, mostly in bet sizing. The 200bb cap attracts a much higher caliber of player. I'll often be sitting with one or two people near my current skill level, and perhaps a few players I deem better than me. However, there will always be one or two complete marks that don't know how to wield their large stack.

So far, my winrate in the 200bb cap is much higher than the 120, but the sample size is pretty small, maybe 200 hrs in the 120 cap and 300 hrs in the 200bb cap. Would it make more sense to play deeper, but in a tougher pool, or play mid stacked vs bad players?
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Old 09-09-2017, 06:38 PM   #19531
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

In general I'd play the mid stacked game with worse players. The deeper game you described doesn't sound like a great game but it's passable. However, look for when the big game looks better and fire away.
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Old 09-09-2017, 08:02 PM   #19532
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer View Post
Question about winrates in different structure games...

I split my time between 120bb cap and 200bb cap games. In the 120 cap, most players have little clue and there's a good amount of spazztards at the table. At worst, there's 3 other players that have some sort of an idea of what they're doing, but still make huge errors, mostly in bet sizing. The 200bb cap attracts a much higher caliber of player. I'll often be sitting with one or two people near my current skill level, and perhaps a few players I deem better than me. However, there will always be one or two complete marks that don't know how to wield their large stack.

So far, my winrate in the 200bb cap is much higher than the 120, but the sample size is pretty small, maybe 200 hrs in the 120 cap and 300 hrs in the 200bb cap. Would it make more sense to play deeper, but in a tougher pool, or play mid stacked vs bad players?
Play the shorter game.

Also #lolsamplesize when it comes to making decisions
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Old 09-10-2017, 12:39 PM   #19533
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm having a slight downswing right now (5 losing sessions in a row, -$2800 at 2/5) and it is definitely hurting my game. I'm playing scared in spots where I used to just fire, and I'm calling down in spots where my A game folds.

Poker variance is impacted by so many factors, it is ridiculous.
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Old 09-10-2017, 01:44 PM   #19534
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Id consider 5 losing sessions in a row and only being down 2800 as a brag
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Old 09-10-2017, 01:58 PM   #19535
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In my last 500 hrs, I've had a 1200bb downswing, one 600bb, and am currently down 400bb from my last peak. Still very much trending upwards overall. I'm 6hrs away from my first 1k hrs of live no-limit. Will be making a post with graphs and **** most likely tomorrow after I do my 6hrs today.
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Old 09-10-2017, 01:58 PM   #19536
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Id consider 5 losing sessions in a row and only being down 2800 as a brag
Especially in a 200 BB cap straddle from anywhere game
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Old 09-10-2017, 04:08 PM   #19537
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Id consider 5 losing sessions in a row and only being down 2800 as a brag
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Especially in a 200 BB cap straddle from anywhere game
this & this
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Old 09-10-2017, 04:50 PM   #19538
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Id consider 5 losing sessions in a row and only being down 2800 as a brag
Yup
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Old 09-10-2017, 04:51 PM   #19539
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$2/4 is right at $32/hr over 379 hours. I feel like I'm improving, but even yesterday I made an embarrassing mistake. I'm just inexperienced I guess.
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Old 09-10-2017, 09:50 PM   #19540
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer View Post
Question about winrates in different structure games...

I split my time between 120bb cap and 200bb cap games. In the 120 cap, most players have little clue and there's a good amount of spazztards at the table. At worst, there's 3 other players that have some sort of an idea of what they're doing, but still make huge errors, mostly in bet sizing. The 200bb cap attracts a much higher caliber of player. I'll often be sitting with one or two people near my current skill level, and perhaps a few players I deem better than me. However, there will always be one or two complete marks that don't know how to wield their large stack.

So far, my winrate in the 200bb cap is much higher than the 120, but the sample size is pretty small, maybe 200 hrs in the 120 cap and 300 hrs in the 200bb cap. Would it make more sense to play deeper, but in a tougher pool, or play mid stacked vs bad players?
I think the determining factor should be time of day. If you can play the 200bb game between Friday night and Monday morning, you can expect it to be softer than it would be on a Wednesday morning. If you can get the Jesus seat on the 200 cap game, always play in it (assuming you're rolled etc). If you're going through a downswing and want to reduce variance, play the 120cap. If you're on a heater, play the 200 cap. A lot of what you do should come down to your bankroll. But also you should be looking to improve to the point where your EV$ in the 200 game becomes notably higher than it does in the 120 game.
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Old 09-12-2017, 09:23 AM   #19541
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Id consider 5 losing sessions in a row and only being down 2800 as a brag
It's true, even downswinging I've had some rungood - was down $2200 in a 2/5/10 uncapped game, then had someone check/raise the river as a bluff to $1420 vs my quads, was down $1700 another day then won a $750 flip, etc etc.

Could easily be down much more, live variance is huge, etc etc
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Old 09-12-2017, 09:48 AM   #19542
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think at low stakes being the best player at the table is important. I'm afraid I don't have any stats to back this up, just gut feeling.

If you think about it, so much money is taken off as rake relative to the stakes that a lot of people must lose a lot of money to keep the game going. This leaves few people who can be winners and little money to spread amongst them. If you don't have the lion's share, you don't have much at all.

This is why we hate tight low stakes games -- folding every hand is a huge improvement over what most players are doing to lose so much.

There's also the part that most of my poker angst comes from being put in tough spots, which happens more often against tough players. When you are angsty you play worse, or you don't want to play at all, both of which cost money.

I don't mean to say it is the most important factor, just one of many things to consider.

Here is a tip. If you see a small capped game with a lot of money on the table, it is almost always a fantastic game. Because for that money to get on the table, there must have been many large pots, and the most likely cause of that is people piling in money loose. Now you have players who are spewy to begin with and they have deep stacks they don't know how to play. And the best part is most of the "better" players will ignore this to play the higher stakes game even if the smaller game is playing like it's one level up.
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Old 09-12-2017, 12:25 PM   #19543
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey y’all. I just reached 1,000 hours of LLSNL. (1,001.492 to be exact, and that’s time that I’m getting cards, not on break.) It’s a milestone many of you have passed long ago & I just wanted to thank everybody for sharing all you gathered in your life of grinding and studying poker. I wouldn’t have been able to eek out any sort of profit were in not for 2+2. (Although, LOL 30k hands aint exactly ****) I feel indebted to anyone who’s taken time to respond to one of my posts and everyone else who post their hands or just comments as it helps me process my own outlook.
Anyways, it’s not much, & not all that impressive either, but here’s the graph of my first 1,000 hours.




The first half (474 hrs) is all at 2/3.



Lots of really, really, awful play. Too much passivity. Too much spew. Too much forgetting to bet. Also, took longer than it should have for me to realize that 3betting ranges in LLSNL are generally much tighter than online. All in all, still proud for one reason; once I seriously began examining my play, seeing nothing but stretches of break-even, I calculated the hourly I’m paying the house. There’s no rake, but a flat drop, and it’s the same at 2/3 as it is at 5/5. **** LA. Anyways, the house takes ~$170/hr according to my calculations and what I had heard from a house player turned trainer. That’s basically $19/hr per player, so that $3.80/hr in profit aint that bad considering how ****ty I was playing & how much I was paying. Honestly, from my experience going through 2/3, $100-300 BI where the average stack is ~60bb, I think the best strategy is to nit it up & use that image to punish people with fold buttons, which I’ve noticed do exist, even if in modest numbers at the lower stakes. Also, unless you wanna break even for long periods like I did, don’t pay people off. Large bets on turns and rivers usually have 1P beat when coming from non-maniacal villains.


Anyways, in the beginning of 2017, I figured I had enough saved up to play some 5/5. It just didn’t make sense for me to continue playing in a game where the rake’s nearly impossible to overcome for a worthwhile reward. After all, I am in this for the cash maneys.



Between January and June, I primarily played a 1k cap buying in for $800 initially. Quite frankly, I found the difference in the caliber of player much more pronounced than what most assume on this forum. However, it was a pleasure to play poker where turns and rivers mattered. I mean, just based on pf sizing alone & yielded SPR, a 200bb live game is much closer to a 100bb online game in format than a 100bb capped live. Anyways, as you can see, sometime in May I began a pretty brutal downswing. Looking back, a lot of it (maybe as much as ½ if I’m honest) was bad play that I had though I eliminated in 2/3 was creeping back in. What was even worse is that the bottom of that downswing came exactly as I was laid-off from work. However, having saved up enough money, probably the nut low of what you’d want if you had to play for a living, I decided to Leroy Jenkins my way through 5/5 over the summer as I was looking for work. I also began devoting much more time to study & even decided to pay for poker training. Over August, it became clear that I did not want to go back to working for anybody else but myself. It’s really odd to type this out, although I’ve already told friends and family, but I really want to see if I can grind out a bank-roll for 5/10 by spring. Could be just a pipe-dream, but I do have back-up options for if/when things go sour. All I know is that after spending over 2 months grinding this ***** out, I haven’t gotten burnt out. In fact, just the opposite. I spend the majority of my off table time studying, or spewing my current half-baked theories here on the ‘ole forum. Since my leave from the world of HR issued paychecks, I’ve averaged $31/hr at the felt. Puny sample size of 334 hrs, ($21/hr for all 528 hrs of 5/5)but I’m just enjoying this slice of my life too much to consider doing anything else. I know I have leaks to plug & much more brutal variance to experience, but the little gains I have seen thus far are encouraging. I want to reach $50/hr+ at 5/5 before fully moving to 5/10 if I get there. Again, I want to thank everyone on here, especially those who have given me earnest feedback since I’ve been posting on LLSNL. This graph is more of an application of your collective knowledge than anything I’ve brought to the game myself. Thank you.
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Old 09-12-2017, 01:03 PM   #19544
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I like your graph
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Old 09-12-2017, 01:22 PM   #19545
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It looks like you're averaging about 63 hrs/month or about 14.5 hours per week for 2017. Do you basically put in a couple 7-8 hour session twice a week? maybe during the weekends?
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Old 09-12-2017, 01:30 PM   #19546
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It looks like you're averaging about 63 hrs/month or about 14.5 hours per week for 2017. Do you basically put in a couple 7-8 hour session twice a week? maybe during the weekends?
I got laid off at the end of June and have been full timing poker since summer.
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Old 09-12-2017, 02:41 PM   #19547
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congrats on getting to 1k - looks like your results have consistently gotten better and you seem to have the necessary mindset/situation to succeed if you stick to it/keep improving. best of luck with the full-time grind and getting to 5/T; part of me is definitely jealous of your situation and getting to take a shot at it - gl!
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Old 09-12-2017, 03:16 PM   #19548
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Gratz on the 1K hour milestone Quantum! Best of luck on your journey to come. I bet that your graph on the next 1K hours will be significantly better. Sheer experience at the tables,plugging the most basic leaks (like fully realizing and adjusting to how ridic tight 3 bet ranges are in LLSNL) and developing your gameflow/table dynamic reading skills is huge.
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Old 09-12-2017, 07:03 PM   #19549
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Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
Gratz on the 1K hour milestone Quantum! Best of luck on your journey to come. I bet that your graph on the next 1K hours will be significantly better. Sheer experience at the tables,plugging the most basic leaks (like fully realizing and adjusting to how ridic tight 3 bet ranges are in LLSNL) and developing your gameflow/table dynamic reading skills is huge.
There's a disclosure thrown in every prospectus when you buy securities that is perfectly apt here:

"Past performance is not indicative of future results."
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Old 09-12-2017, 07:30 PM   #19550
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
I think at low stakes being the best player at the table is important. I'm afraid I don't have any stats to back this up, just gut feeling.

If you think about it, so much money is taken off as rake relative to the stakes that a lot of people must lose a lot of money to keep the game going. This leaves few people who can be winners and little money to spread amongst them. If you don't have the lion's share, you don't have much at all.

This is why we hate tight low stakes games -- folding every hand is a huge improvement over what most players are doing to lose so much.

There's also the part that most of my poker angst comes from being put in tough spots, which happens more often against tough players. When you are angsty you play worse, or you don't want to play at all, both of which cost money.

I don't mean to say it is the most important factor, just one of many things to consider.

Here is a tip. If you see a small capped game with a lot of money on the table, it is almost always a fantastic game. Because for that money to get on the table, there must have been many large pots, and the most likely cause of that is people piling in money loose. Now you have players who are spewy to begin with and they have deep stacks they don't know how to play. And the best part is most of the "better" players will ignore this to play the higher stakes game even if the smaller game is playing like it's one level up.
I stayed in a 1/2 game with a lot of money on the table instead of switching to some dry 2/5 games last night. There was a spewy guy with over $1200, granted he ran awesome. Much easier to extract money from a table with this guy without risking very much as compared to the bigger game. All of us could improve our winrates if we checked for juicy lower stakes games as part of our table selection strategy.
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