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Old 08-07-2017, 09:12 AM   #19501
Avaritia
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

As someone who has played way too many overnight sessions and used to do it as a standard approach, i will say that the early morning hours come with a big caveat.

People by 5am are usually so tired, so out of it, that it slows the game down significantly. There are people nodding off, there are people nursing 60bb stacks, its just weird. The game has *usually* died at this point, though yes everyone is still on tilt and everyone is playing poorly.

The golden hours of poker are 11pm-2am imo.

That said, its really, really bad for your health. Look up articles on people who work the night shift. Its not worth it. At all.
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Old 08-07-2017, 09:36 AM   #19502
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
As someone who has played way too many overnight sessions and used to do it as a standard approach, i will say that the early morning hours come with a big caveat.

People by 5am are usually so tired, so out of it, that it slows the game down significantly. There are people nodding off, there are people nursing 60bb stacks, its just weird. The game has *usually* died at this point, though yes everyone is still on tilt and everyone is playing poorly.

The golden hours of poker are 11pm-2am imo.

That said, its really, really bad for your health. Look up articles on people who work the night shift. Its not worth it. At all.
+1

Im sure all you 20 somethings think you're bulletproof just like I did in my 20s, but look around the poker room. There are 40 year old guys that look 62 and there are 62 year old guys that look 45. Which do you want to be?
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Old 08-07-2017, 12:52 PM   #19503
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
As someone who has played way too many overnight sessions and used to do it as a standard approach, i will say that the early morning hours come with a big caveat.

People by 5am are usually so tired, so out of it, that it slows the game down significantly. There are people nodding off, there are people nursing 60bb stacks, its just weird. The game has *usually* died at this point, though yes everyone is still on tilt and everyone is playing poorly.

The golden hours of poker are 11pm-2am imo.

That said, its really, really bad for your health. Look up articles on people who work the night shift. Its not worth it. At all.
It's definitely a double edged sword as many times you will have players just trying to nut peddle to get back to even. One of the reasons I like showing up to a casino in the early AM is the convenience. I generally get a parking spot right in the front, walk in and am immediately seated, sometimes with a choice of multiple tables. The thing is if you wait until 6am there is no guarantee you will get a seat. The better the game, the less likely there will be a seat available too. So you could be waiting 2 to 4 hours for a new table to open which will be filled with a bunch of OMCs while the original table has gigantic chip stacks and massive multiway pots every hand.

I can't really comment on the health implications but from a lifestyle perspective playing late at night definitely sucks.

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+1

Im sure all you 20 somethings think you're bulletproof just like I did in my 20s, but look around the poker room. There are 40 year old guys that look 62 and there are 62 year old guys that look 45. Which do you want to be?
I'm 39 but everyone thinks i'm like 25. I don't think playing weird hours has affected that one bit. Anyways a couple weeks ago I played with a guy that looked over 90 (perhaps he was in his 80s) and he had been playing 3 days straight lol. On the one hand, that can't be healthy whatsoever. On the other hand, he seemed to be having a lot of fun.
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Old 08-07-2017, 01:03 PM   #19504
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Everyone's biological clock is different. People have different hours of night when they fall asleep naturally. Most people fall asleep between 11pm-1am, but a good chunk has a natural sleep time much later than that.
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Old 08-07-2017, 01:39 PM   #19505
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It can be environmental too. Your body produces melatonin and seratonin and a couple of other things based on light exposure and that influences your biological clock. So if you're running a weird schedule you need to manage that and make sure that you've got an actual *dark* place to sleep and whatnot.


My experience with late games is that once the booze stops flowing, you've got about and hour and a half of decent conditions before it's better to just go home. All the casinos around here have last call somewhere in the 1:30a range and by 3a or so the game dries up noticeably.

We have 'charity poker rooms' in MI, where the room closes at 2am and the last hand is somewhere between 1:30 and 1:45. The last hour or so before that is the craziest part of the night as people go into pure gamble mode to get un-stuck, sometimes straddling $100 or shipping blind. It's insane.


Obviously places with 24/7 alcohol have a different dynamic too.
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Old 08-07-2017, 03:16 PM   #19506
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My experience with late games is that once the booze stops flowing, you've got about and hour and a half of decent conditions before it's better to just go home. All the casinos around here have last call somewhere in the 1:30a range and by 3a or so the game dries up noticeably.
The game dynamics change for sure as you might there might not be any splashy drunks but fact is at 3am the vast majority of players are tired and are at best playing their C game and are making terrible decisions left and right. This might not be as apparent to someone that has been grinding all night but I assure you this is the case. Of course, if you are someone that works a 9 to 5 job then more than likely you will be one of the players not playing their A game.
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Old 08-07-2017, 04:09 PM   #19507
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I won't argue that people suck playing that late. They completely are. I'm up those kinds of hours on a daily basis so it doesn't bother me.

When it gets too late the pace of the game slows down, the drunken spew stops, and I see re-buying stop. People lose a hand and just leave the table without getting replaced. So while there's a lot of too-tight mistakes, and a lot of "I'm tired and missed that there was even a flush out there" mistakes, those players lose and leave the game pretty quickly.

Maybe that's different in other rooms, but in the ones I play in the game collapses from having about 8+ tables of $1/2 at 1am to 3 tables somewhere between 3 and 4am.
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Old 08-07-2017, 04:20 PM   #19508
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yeah idk it depends on situation obviously, but in my experience (and i dont play super late nights often at all) the play becomes quite slow and nitty. even though people are stuck, it seems like a lot of them are just waiting around trying to cooler someone. kind of depressing and sad tbh
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Old 08-07-2017, 09:39 PM   #19509
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I used to do this on Sunday mornings at my regular card room. +++++EV, no doubt.
Yes I frequently play a Sunday AM session starting around 2:30/3 & it is full of people chasing, drunk or both. Great game conditions.
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Old 08-07-2017, 10:37 PM   #19510
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Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
Ok, finally made it.

So, here's Hourly Profit by Session Duration.



And here's BB/hr winrate based on 100 and 500 hour increments:



As you can see, last 100 hours are pretty unreliable, whereas last 500 hours are somewhat stable.
I keep seeing this pic come up on live low stakes. No offense, but your fifth (or sixth whatever) degree polynomial fit is bad in so many ways.

What does a linear fit or power fit plus intercept (exponential plus intercept applies) look like? R^2 is useless here FYI (it's always gonna be super low unless you fit in a quantifiable measure of run good (gl with that)). What you care about are standard errors of the estimated parameters.

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Old 08-07-2017, 11:46 PM   #19511
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I keep seeing this pic come up on live low stakes. No offense, but your fifth (or sixth whatever) degree polynomial fit is bad in so many ways.

What does a linear fit or power fit plus intercept (exponential plus intercept applies) look like? R^2 is useless here FYI (it's always gonna be super low unless you fit in a quantifiable measure of run good (gl with that)). What you care about are standard errors of the estimated parameters.
1. What does it mean that you keep seeing this chart on live low stakes. I just posted this on this thread.

2. I never claimed I am a stats guru. Excel gave me 3 options for a trendline and I used polynomial because it tells a story that makes sense given my first hand experience. To be frank, I don't even know what a polynomial trendline is.

3. What I said and I believe is that while the story this chart says is that as you hit the 9-10 hr mark your winrate decreases (FYI that's what a linear trendline shows), a. I am not sure whether it's fatigue or self-selection because you re stuck. and b. there aren't enough data points to even be sure that this story is accurate. I gather you would need a far larger sample to be reasonably sure about it, so you should take whetever you see on the no 1 picture with a huge grain of salt.

4. R squared is pretty low regardless of what type of chart I use; this was the highest score out of all the charts I used. As you say, it's probably not relevant.
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Old 08-08-2017, 12:45 AM   #19512
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1. What does it mean that you keep seeing this chart on live low stakes. I just posted this on this thread.

2. I never claimed I am a stats guru. Excel gave me 3 options for a trendline and I used polynomial because it tells a story that makes sense given my first hand experience. To be frank, I don't even know what a polynomial trendline is.

3. What I said and I believe is that while the story this chart says is that as you hit the 9-10 hr mark your winrate decreases (FYI that's what a linear trendline shows), a. I am not sure whether it's fatigue or self-selection because you re stuck. and b. there aren't enough data points to even be sure that this story is accurate. I gather you would need a far larger sample to be reasonably sure about it, so you should take whetever you see on the no 1 picture with a huge grain of salt.

4. R squared is pretty low regardless of what type of chart I use; this was the highest score out of all the charts I used. As you say, it's probably not relevant.
Hey calm down, just being critical as I think this is interesting and can be improved. Consider a linear fit looks like:

$/hr = a*t + b

If you multiply by t, you get:

$/session = a*t^2 + b*t (or better yet fit sessions to this formula)

Taking derivative you can find the session length optimizing your session earnings, which satisfies:

0 = 2*a*t + b
or
t = -b / 2 /a (a should be negative)



Certainly, there are issues associated to variance but a large enough sample should address it. If you record how well you run on a numeric scale, you should be able to reduce noise in your sampling. Could also record how well you think you played which gives you an extra set of info. Can think of some very interesting applications for this info. Just need to be careful with measuring error of these two.


And for whatever reason, when the post shows up it's had this pic the last 30 times...no clue why.

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Old 08-08-2017, 12:53 AM   #19513
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I think it's funny that I used to read that stuff, get extremely confused, and believe I never had a shot at being good at poker.

Nowadays I read it, get confused, and give up trying to comprehend it because I don't need to.
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Old 08-08-2017, 12:58 AM   #19514
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I think it's funny that I used to read that stuff, get extremely confused, and believe I never had a shot at being good at poker.

Nowadays I read it, get confused, and give up trying to comprehend it because I don't need to.
lol yeah, but you can use it on the backend for things like game selection, i.e. time of day/day of week/location to get the most out of your time

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Old 08-08-2017, 04:36 AM   #19515
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Originally Posted by yummyhumanbrains View Post
Hey calm down, just being critical as I think this is interesting and can be improved. Consider a linear fit looks like:

$/hr = a*t + b

If you multiply by t, you get:

$/session = a*t^2 + b*t (or better yet fit sessions to this formula)

Taking derivative you can find the session length optimizing your session earnings, which satisfies:

0 = 2*a*t + b
or
t = -b / 2 /a (a should be negative)



Certainly, there are issues associated to variance but a large enough sample should address it. If you record how well you run on a numeric scale, you should be able to reduce noise in your sampling. Could also record how well you think you played which gives you an extra set of info. Can think of some very interesting applications for this info. Just need to be careful with measuring error of these two.


And for whatever reason, when the post shows up it's had this pic the last 30 times...no clue why.

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This should be an integration not multiplication to get $/session, so you should fit $/hr = 2*a*t + b or just fit the quadratic. Does anyone do stats on their sessions? Most trackers seem to have sd/hr built in.

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Old 08-08-2017, 06:06 AM   #19516
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Originally Posted by yummyhumanbrains View Post
And for whatever reason, when the post shows up it's had this pic the last 30 times...no clue why.


Tapatalk shows the 1st picture in the last post with a picture in it. There is a setting to turn this off.
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Old 08-08-2017, 10:25 AM   #19517
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Originally Posted by yummyhumanbrains View Post
This should be an integration not multiplication to get $/session, so you should fit $/hr = 2*a*t + b or just fit the quadratic. Does anyone do stats on their sessions? Most trackers seem to have sd/hr built in.

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What is a, what is t and what is b?
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Old 08-08-2017, 03:25 PM   #19518
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What is a, what is t and what is b?
t is time (guessing you used hours)...a & b are whatever fit shows. a represents decrease in winrate per hour played while b is winrate at the start of a session.

This should have been clear, but your session wins are maxed when your hourly winrate goes to zero. Probably more useful then is how much more do you get on your last hours in a session? Does playing 12 vs. 8 hours only add 5% (or whatever it is). You get the idea, you can use to get the most of your time. Could you play more sessions for the same hours and make more (there's transit time/costs ofc too)?

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Old 08-08-2017, 03:46 PM   #19519
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Originally Posted by yummyhumanbrains View Post
I keep seeing this pic come up on live low stakes. No offense, but your fifth (or sixth whatever) degree polynomial fit is bad in so many ways.

What does a linear fit or power fit plus intercept (exponential plus intercept applies) look like? R^2 is useless here FYI (it's always gonna be super low unless you fit in a quantifiable measure of run good (gl with that)). What you care about are standard errors of the estimated parameters.

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Giraffe Police itt


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Old 08-08-2017, 03:57 PM   #19520
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Giraffe Police itt


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lol i wanna be the anti-outdonked

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Old 08-22-2017, 06:34 PM   #19521
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Giraffe Police itt


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2nd this
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Old 08-22-2017, 10:04 PM   #19522
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Can someone please point me in the direction of some solid 1/2-1/3-2/5 strategy/game theory threads on here. I believe there is one or two solely written by one player as his game develops and he writes a guide of sorts. I am looking for this in particular as well as others that I can use for serious study.

Thank you in advance.
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Old 08-23-2017, 12:19 AM   #19523
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Just check the "best of" thread stickied on the front page.

It'd be a benefit to check the COTW in the micro full ring forum.
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Old 08-23-2017, 10:24 AM   #19524
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Just check the "best of" thread stickied on the front page.

It'd be a benefit to check the COTW in the micro full ring forum.
COTW? Thank you.
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Old 08-23-2017, 09:05 PM   #19525
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Concept of the Week. OK, that's enough strategy derail in this thread. Back to its main purpose now, please.
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