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Old 08-03-2017, 12:15 PM   #19426
Ranma4703
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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
The Ultimate Grinder Leader Board

Back in the on line days of poker a site called PTR had the ultimate grinder leader board. If you won the most $ at yer stake you got an UGL badge. I personally never won one. I had a pal who was a stone cold killer that won 2 consecutive. He was an absolute beast.

In live cash games its really tough to have one of these cuz lol people make sht up. This past month I have personally witnessed a new ultimate grinder born in the 2/5 1k cap realm. I have played a lot of poker and know a lot of pros...and have never seen a combo as impressive as this. These are not my results but the hours are bravo verified and I have seen the fat stax o cash

warning this is obscene
Spoiler:
I don't grind so this is over a year and a half, but I'm at $41,199 over 472 hours for ~$89 an hour, almost all 2/5 1k cap. Sun running is real. If I limit myself to a month, my June this year was $9827 over 33 hours for ~$300 an hour, all 2/5 1k cap.
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Old 08-03-2017, 12:16 PM   #19427
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Originally Posted by water69 View Post
Most people just refuse to believe a winning player (for a good clip) could ever break even for over 500 hours until it happens to them. I know I didn't believe it until it happened to me. Put one of those stretches into a sample size of even 3K hours and the results still won't reflect your EV earned (unless you have a similar stretch of winning 2x your true WR). That's pretty much why I say there is no sample size in live poker really big enough to come to any conclusions. Better to just review your play each session and make sure you're always making theoretical dollars.
Good luck getting people to stop looking at their results, even if their sample sizes are small
I need to go back and convert the confidence interval math into hours the next time I look at mine.

I've heard this said at the table as a joke and there's some practical truth in it "hookers don't take sklansky bucks". So a big part of the smaller sample analysis comes back to cashflow management more than win rate.

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Thanks for sharing. Coming off of a 500 hour stretch myself. Pretty surreal considering my first 1k hours of sun run, but i had actually just come to accept it. Then i went on a pretty sick heater april-june and was like "oh sh*t i can win again"

Hoping it continues.
It's a weird feeling when you look in your fire safe and all of a sudden you're up a bunch of buy ins after running "meh" for a while. Once you can accept that bad stretches happen without it tilting you you can actually exploit it if your player pool is small and they think you're "unlucky". Wouldn't try anything fancy in a big room though.


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I agree and have posted similar thoughts over the last year. I'm closing in on 4000 hours and believe 1000 hour samples are just noise. Maybe 10,000 hours would give an accurate representation but I have a feeling the "long-term" is longer than a lifetime at live poker.
I'm going to add a 1000 hour trailing calc the next time I look at my data to see what it looks like. Doubt it'll be anything groundbreaking.

I'd disagree that they're "just noise". They're enough so start seeing trends and make some inferences. I think they're enough to tell you that you're *probably* playing well if you're winning. I'd just say that there's still some uncertainty in what the true answer is. (I really need to pull those equations.)

For a rec player you're never getting a long term answer for true winrate. If you were putting in 2k hours / yr as a full time pro maybe you'd have something with some good confidence with less game changes underlying your data as the collection rate is so much higher than a "normal" player. Can't see that being a sustainable lifestyle for too long though if you wanted to put in any off table studying and also have a life.

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This happened here in maryland. Last year the games were really juicy but the player pool went broke. Its a very cannabilistic game because you can lose a lot in a hurry and some of the people just never folded pre. Now the four card game is close to dead. All the fish are playing 5 card, which obv is a big game that u better be rolled for.

The thing is, edge is huge in 5card bc ppl have no clue how to rank starting hands
When you say 5 card you mean Big O? Get dealt 5, play 2? I saw that on the board when I was in DC this spring and thought "that's weird in a casino". I can see that being like Hi-Lo where it's impossible for a whale to imagine that any hand is bad enough to fold.

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I see lots of strategy lines posted here by what I assume are good players, like a good amount of double barrelling scare cards, bluff check raising draws on the turn and things like that. I see it all the time when Im playing. I see guys doing it in real time at my tables. Things that I consider unnecessary plays causing chips to be spewed everywhere even though I know they are winners long term.

These same players post about long losing streaks and crazy variance and how 1000-2000 hrs is insignificant. Its hard for me to believe that you guys don't see that these things are related.

Keep those super aggro plays to an absolute minimum and your variance will decrease and your consistency as it relates to win rates will increase.
I could probably count on my fingers how many times I've double barrel bluffed scare cards, bluff check raised the turn, or many of those crazy ago lines in the last 3 months. Some might even call me a nit (I exploit the **** out of them when they do), and I still see significant variance in my results. The issue has a lot to do with sample size beyond what you think of as "style". (If anything many of the "un-orthodox" lines I've seen you post are more spewy/high variance or luck boxy. Unless there's just a giant selection bias there.)

I don't think I've ever said that 1000 hours is insignificant. 100 hours is completely worthless. 500 hours can be breakeven. Without running numbers I'd say that 1000 hours probably has a factor of 2-3 potential error. It's enough to say if you're probably a winning player, but not enough to point at a win rate and say "I make $20 BB/hr, so you should be able to easily too".


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As a single example i cant count all the 10-12 hour sessions i have been sitting there just folding hour after hour being totally carddead, executing patience at it finest. Only to stack a guy late at night when he is doing just _one_ big mistake and i take his 150 BB stack, and by that booking another long session with 10-12 BB hour winrate.

Winning poker longterm combined with aiming to lower the variance as much as possible is usually boring as f----,that is the reality.
What about those times when you wait patiently for 10 hours, get it in against the fish, and get 4 outerer on the river? Or go AA v KK preflop and he gets his 20%? You're tying your entire session result to the outcome of 1 hand, which (I think) increases overall variance.

Although I will say that those sessions where you play $1/2 for 4 hours, feel like nothing significant happened, and walk away up $80 *feel* weird or like a waste of time. But that's actually a pretty good win rate for that game.
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Old 08-03-2017, 12:19 PM   #19428
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm about a recreational year away from 4000 hours in my 1/3 NL game, and (unless things change drastically over the next ~500 hours) I'm pretty sure I'm on target for the first 2000 hours to be twice as profitable as the last 2000 hours were. So you can probably guess what I think of lol 1000 hour sample sizes.

Course, it will take me 8.5 years to reach 4000 hours in my game. Obviously, conditions change over that time.

GconditionsistheonlythingthatmattersG
Ahha! You posted this while I was typing, but it's in line with what I was thinking about 1000 hour samples giving you maybe a factor of 2 or 3 error on your win rate number.

You get in about what? 500 hours a year or so?
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Old 08-03-2017, 12:19 PM   #19429
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Big O does get spread in MD but he's talking about 5 Card Hi Only
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Old 08-03-2017, 12:25 PM   #19430
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Originally Posted by homerdash View Post
Big O does get spread in MD but he's talking about 5 Card Hi Only
Are those not the same thing?
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Old 08-03-2017, 12:26 PM   #19431
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Are those not the same thing?


Big O is hi/lo with 5 cards, 5 card PLO is just hi
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Old 08-03-2017, 12:28 PM   #19432
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
You get in about what? 500 hours a year or so?
Yeah, probably close to ~550 hours/year the last few years.

The one thing I'm also guessing/realizing in my pool is that many of the regs put in *far* more hours than I do in a year since it looks like (from what I can tell) this is kinda their only form of recreation / social. I mean, it's likely I'm not even winning on an experience metric any more against many of my opponents.

GcluelessgameconditionsnoobG
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Old 08-03-2017, 01:04 PM   #19433
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Angrist - I will post my 4000 hour graph when I cross that bridge.

- My first 1100 hours I ran at $45-50/hr (and at least half of those hours were spent at 1/2).

- My second 1150 hours were breakeven and a completely hellish never ending nightmare.

- My subsequent 1200+ hours have been >$20/hr, though the first 450 hours in that stretch were barely in the black and fit in better with the previous 1150 hour sample as that was a more or less prolonged 1500 hour break even stretch.

As you can see, I really place no stock in the 1000 hour samples and freely admit variance is probably the biggest factor in determining your win rate/success. Two identical 2/5 players with the same solid fundamentals could end up $100,000 apart at the end of a year playing full-time (ie: Player A had a breakeven year playing solid poker but running bad, not getting into profitable situations etc. Player B had a $100,000 year playing solid poker, stumbling into profitable opportunity after profitable opportunity, constantly fading outs in the big pots, hitting his big draws in big pots, etc.).

The longer I play the more I come around to the idea of poker as a career being complete madness. It is impossible to create a projected income budget because poker is extraordinarily ridiculous. Poker is the ultimate side hustle, but I think trying to find meaning in sample sizes the average player accrues in 1-5 years is a fool's errand.
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Old 08-03-2017, 01:15 PM   #19434
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Course the problem is that we all look at all of this thru our own lens, typically basing our conclusions on our own results. I'd have a much difference response to Johnny's quote above at 2000 hours than I likely will at 4000 hours. But there will be those sitting at 4000 hours who are where I was at 2000 hours and wondering what all the fuss is about.

Ggoodlucktousall,imoG
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Old 08-03-2017, 01:38 PM   #19435
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Originally Posted by homerdash View Post
Big O is hi/lo with 5 cards, 5 card PLO is just hi
That terminology differs from what I've heard around here in MI. Although it's extremely rare that I see either spread.

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Angrist - I will post my 4000 hour graph when I cross that bridge.

- My first 1100 hours I ran at $45-50/hr (and at least half of those hours were spent at 1/2).

- My second 1150 hours were breakeven and a completely hellish never ending nightmare.

- My subsequent 1200+ hours have been >$20/hr, though the first 450 hours in that stretch were barely in the black and fit in better with the previous 1150 hour sample as that was a more or less prolonged 1500 hour break even stretch.

As you can see, I really place no stock in the 1000 hour samples and freely admit variance is probably the biggest factor in determining your win rate/success. Two identical 2/5 players with the same solid fundamentals could end up $100,000 apart at the end of a year playing full-time (ie: Player A had a breakeven year playing solid poker but running bad, not getting into profitable situations etc. Player B had a $100,000 year playing solid poker, stumbling into profitable opportunity after profitable opportunity, constantly fading outs in the big pots, hitting his big draws in big pots, etc.).

The longer I play the more I come around to the idea of poker as a career being complete madness. It is impossible to create a projected income budget because poker is extraordinarily ridiculous. Poker is the ultimate side hustle, but I think trying to find meaning in sample sizes the average player accrues in 1-5 years is a fool's errand.
I'll be interested to see (I always like seeing more data). It sounds like a really rough time of it in the middle. Even with my experience with my own winrate that would make me question if I was even a winning player, or if I was tilting it off during that stretch due to the mental fatigue of being beaten down for a year+. Although being somewhere between breakeven and +10BB/hr is a lot more encouraging than being somewhere between -10BB/hr and +5BB/hr for those kinds of samples.

Completely agree with the idea that poker as a career is a complete crap shoot. The uncertainty in your results from year to year make planning impossible. It's like being a day trader almost.

My view of poker is that it's best as a hobby. I find the study of the game and the situational math challenging and interesting from a strategy perspective, both at the table and via books. Beyond that the act of getting out of the house and away from my computers to sit at a table with a wide swatch of humanity a nice change from dealing with engineers all the time. From playing poker I've got a buddy that flips cars, one that sells diamonds, a couple of lawyers, a chef, a couple of dope/pill dealers, know a guy that we're convinced is actually both a pimp and a gigolo, a a bunch of others. (A lot of of +lifeEV there.) I can have fun, relax a bit, and win enough money to cover my other hobbies + a little extra fun when things are going well.
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Old 08-03-2017, 02:02 PM   #19436
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
My view of poker is that it's best as a hobby. I find the study of the game and the situational math challenging and interesting from a strategy perspective, both at the table and via books. Beyond that the act of getting out of the house and away from my computers to sit at a table with a wide swatch of humanity a nice change from dealing with engineers all the time. From playing poker I've got a buddy that flips cars, one that sells diamonds, a couple of lawyers, a chef, a couple of dope/pill dealers, know a guy that we're convinced is actually both a pimp and a gigolo, a a bunch of others. (A lot of of +lifeEV there.) I can have fun, relax a bit, and win enough money to cover my other hobbies + a little extra fun when things are going well.
This is also my exact take on the most +lifeEV way to view poker as well; as an entertaining fun get-out-of-the-house possibly-even-make-some-side-$$ hobby.

GbuteachtotheirownG
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Old 08-03-2017, 02:05 PM   #19437
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Ive gotten my money in with 2% equity in 300-400bb pots 4 times in the last three months.

Second set is tough to fold.

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Old 08-03-2017, 02:10 PM   #19438
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How many times did you get there tho?
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Old 08-03-2017, 02:32 PM   #19439
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I pretty much only win when people jam a worse hand into me. I don't get there.

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Old 08-03-2017, 02:42 PM   #19440
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
This is also my exact take on the most +lifeEV way to view poker as well; as an entertaining fun get-out-of-the-house possibly-even-make-some-side-$$ hobby.

GbuteachtotheirownG
I'm pretty sure all the guys I play sports with think I'm lying about not being a drug dealer because I always pay my league fees in cash.

Nice to have one hobby pay for the other.
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Old 08-03-2017, 03:01 PM   #19441
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
As you can see, I really place no stock in the 1000 hour samples and freely admit variance is probably the biggest factor in determining your win rate/success. Two identical 2/5 players with the same solid fundamentals could end up $100,000 apart at the end of a year playing full-time (ie: Player A had a breakeven year playing solid poker but running bad, not getting into profitable situations etc. Player B had a $100,000 year playing solid poker, stumbling into profitable opportunity after profitable opportunity, constantly fading outs in the big pots, hitting his big draws in big pots, etc.).
Given a full-time player who plays 2000 hours a year, with a true win-rate of $50/h and a standard deviation of $425/h, their yearly standard deviation is ~$19,000 with an EV of $100,000. For another identical player to run breakeven for the year means he ran 100000/19000 = 5.3 SD below the mean. This equates to a probability of very roughly 1/20,000,000.

So you're right, it could happen.

I'm sure you could come back and say something regarding those statistics not quite reflecting reality, and for some reasons you'd be correct, but the truth is that it is insanely unlikely for a good player to run breakeven for 2000 hours, or even 1500 hours that you reported. If this happens at 2|5 it is far more likely the player is just not very good than he ran that badly.

I realize that this is a different example than what you brought up, and one player running $50k above EV while the other runs $50k below EV can happen much more easily, but if your EV at 2|5 is $50k/year playing 2000 hours then you're not a much of a professional.
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Old 08-03-2017, 04:20 PM   #19442
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Also i would add that i am highly skeptical of your 1150 hour breakeven stretch Johnny.I suspect that this number is amplified by more than just "runbad" or simply "breakeven" by pure variance. I doubt that you played your best game during this period, and i also suspect that you may have tilted/spewed off buyins during this period. Not like you go crazy or anything, but in more subtle ways that you could easily be blind so you cannot notice it by yourself.
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Old 08-03-2017, 04:39 PM   #19443
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Am I the only one who thinks game conditions plays a huge part in all our ups and downs?

I swear I've sat in lineups (mostly in the past, but sometimes today's games are just as good although not nearly as often) where I'm fairly confident I could beat the game for 10+ bb/hr without even breaking a sweat.

I'm also fairly confident I've sat in a lot of games (especially more now) where it's arguable whether I (and I only mean me, not you) could even beat the game.

Gexternalfactorsaren'tbeingconsideredenough,imoG
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Old 08-03-2017, 05:28 PM   #19444
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I'm not sure it's fair to try to remove all aspects of "tilt" from our discussion of variance. Villains lose a couple of hands in a row and tilt off money to us to increase our winrate beyond just the randomness of the cards. The same thing can and will happen to all of us to some extent (hopefully much less so than the fish). It's extremely difficult to mentally weather storm of some prolonged runbad while maintaining your A game. Other players will also adjust what they perceive as your 'luck' and may start calling you lighter or folding tighter, changing the game conditions and your resulting edge over them. Likewise it's easy to avoid spew and (some) mental mistakes when we're running like the sun. Variance has a mental component.

GG I agree with your perception of certain tables being obvious goldmines, rock gardens, or meat grinders. Dealing with those changes and making game selection decisions is what makes us better than our random opponents. I feel like I've noticed that in room to room stats, but most of my sample sizes for those things are ~100 hours and I don't trust the statistics of them.
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Old 08-03-2017, 05:31 PM   #19445
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(If anything many of the "un-orthodox" lines I've seen you post are more spewy/high variance or luck boxy. Unless there's just a giant selection bias there.)





One man's spew is another mans winning lines.
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Old 08-03-2017, 05:45 PM   #19446
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One man's "winning lines" are another man's statistical noise.

Just because you win or lose a pot, or win or lose over a stretch of time, doesn't mean you're making the right or wrong decision. That's determined by math and the analysis of the situation (which gets us into a strategy derail).
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Old 08-03-2017, 06:15 PM   #19447
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
One man's "winning lines" are another man's statistical noise.

Just because you win or lose a pot, or win or lose over a stretch of time, doesn't mean you're making the right or wrong decision. That's determined by math and the analysis of the situation (which gets us into a strategy derail).
I was told this same thing after 500 hours. After 1000 hours. After 1500 hours. After 2000 hours. Im over 2500 hours now and still chugging along at a win rate within a small window of what its been since the first 300 hours or so.
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Old 08-03-2017, 06:29 PM   #19448
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Also i would add that i am highly skeptical of your 1150 hour breakeven stretch Johnny.I suspect that this number is amplified by more than just "runbad" or simply "breakeven" by pure variance. I doubt that you played your best game during this period, and i also suspect that you may have tilted/spewed off buyins during this period. Not like you go crazy or anything, but in more subtle ways that you could easily be blind so you cannot notice it by yourself.
But it's more plausible that after that 1500 hour stretch in the deepest darkest throes of spewing and tilting that I just flipped a switch and decided to play my A-game and win at >$30/hr again?

The fallacy of 2p2 is "if it hasn't happened to me then it isn't possible." I've grinded more hours than 99% of the posters here. Your skepticism and platitudes have no bearing on my reality.

You can choose to believe whatever you want. I am merely relaying my experiences which at this point have covered the entire lifecycle of a poker run: running good, sun running, running terrible, breaking even win/lose/win/lose for months and finally at a point of running around average lately.

And wrt browni - variance calculators are an educational tool but not grounded in reality. My point is there is no such thing as a "true winrate" and accurate SD's. Your game conditions are constantly changing and all you have access to are your observed results. Believing what is or isn't possible in poker because of what some financial model spits out seems a silly thing to hang a hat on.
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Old 08-03-2017, 06:40 PM   #19449
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Graphs? Statistics?

Possibilities:

1) You are a poker wizard and all of these "unorthodox" lines are actually correct while everyone else is wrong

2) You're a bit of a statistical outlier and just haven't gotten smacked with the variance hammer yet.

3) Your player pool is significantly softer/different from most of our pools which changes your required adjustments and winrates.

4) You don't accurately track all of your sessions. Or are lying about your results.


I'm more than willing to try different lines and adjustments, but there needs to be a logical justification for them beyond "IDK, I win".
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Old 08-03-2017, 06:46 PM   #19450
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fwiw, a lot of "correct lines" are "correct" because they're assuming the opponent has a decent understanding of the game and adjusts accordingly.

If our opponents are horribad, then a lot of seemingly "bad" lines would actually yield a much higher WR in many instances because it's maximizing exploitation as our opponents aren't picking up on the holes in our lines that make them unoptimal in a theory perspective (like donking into somebody with a massive range advantage for thin value and having them bluff raise us 0% of the time so we're actually making more money with a line that's terrible)

I think it makes a lot of sense for bad lines to be successful at lower stakes. You won't be able to replicate that success in bigger games, but it's okay, because you don't need to.
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