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Old 08-02-2017, 01:24 PM   #19401
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I completely agree about how 500 hour samples can have heaters and downswings. Along with the game and personal changes. It's hard to fathom until you've seen it with your own eyes and in your own results though. Unfortunately it's all we have and we just need to view all results through the lens of sample size.

I think I'm repeating myself here, but I don't buy the simple idea that equities are closer together in PLO than they are in NLHE. Preflop that may be the case as it's so hard to completely dominate another hand. But postflop and especially post turn there are too many spots that I see players getting their money in drawing completely dead, or getting freerolled by a hand they're currently chopping with.
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Old 08-02-2017, 03:24 PM   #19402
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I completely agree about how 500 hour samples can have heaters and downswings. Along with the game and personal changes. It's hard to fathom until you've seen it with your own eyes and in your own results though. Unfortunately it's all we have and we just need to view all results through the lens of sample size.
hell yea it is

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I think I'm repeating myself here, but I don't buy the simple idea that equities are closer together in PLO than they are in NLHE. Preflop that may be the case as it's so hard to completely dominate another hand. But postflop and especially post turn there are too many spots that I see players getting their money in drawing completely dead, or getting freerolled by a hand they're currently chopping with.
guys put their money in close to dead in NLHE all the time too OTT and OTR. they also get punished much harder for being weak/passive than they do in PLO.
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Old 08-02-2017, 03:45 PM   #19403
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What was your longest downswing/breakeven stretch duke? I remember you posting but im horrible with the search function
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Old 08-02-2017, 04:01 PM   #19404
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I think I'm repeating myself here, but I don't buy the simple idea that equities are closer together in PLO than they are in NLHE. Preflop that may be the case as it's so hard to completely dominate another hand. But postflop and especially post turn there are too many spots that I see players getting their money in drawing completely dead, or getting freerolled by a hand they're currently chopping with.
Sure the second happens quite frequently but the first statement is just not realistic. There are spots that simply by the nature of a 4 card vs. a 2 card game that equities run much much closer together.

A more frequent all in on the flop scenario in PLO is set vs. combo draw of some sort. Happens every way more frequently than freeroll spots IME.
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Old 08-02-2017, 05:15 PM   #19405
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Maybe it's just my games but I don't see too many late hand NLHE spots where people get *lots* of money in smashed. It happens, but it seems like people have 20-35% pretty often. Or at least they're against a *range* that they have equity against.

The flop example in PLO is fair as that is a decently common and close situation.

I think the threshold is more the turn in PLO were people get smashed equity-wise. That's also why I hate playing in games with $5 bring ins or other preflop insanity that shortens the hand so that you can't pot the turn without a $1k stack to start the hand. I see a lot of SD vs sucker SD situations in my game where the low end is drawing to 3 outs to win, 6ish to chop and a bunch to lose outright, moreso than the set vs. combo draw spot. At least based on hands that get shown.
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Old 08-02-2017, 05:20 PM   #19406
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lol, 20-35% IS smashed

Also, NLHE is a lot more about value betting as opposed to equity comparisons.
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Old 08-02-2017, 05:58 PM   #19407
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There are plenty of spots where 30% equity is enough to make a call correct. But when I say "smashed" in PLO, I mean "you have one out to win" smashed.

We're getting off topic here. So to tie this in some way to the winrate discussion ... if it takes us easily 500 hours or more to see a semi stable winrate from a NLHE game, I doubt that my observations of PLO for roughly that time are going to be statistically significant, especially based on what I'm *watching* people do rather than recording hard data on their actions. :shrug:
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Old 08-02-2017, 06:54 PM   #19408
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What was your longest downswing/breakeven stretch duke? I remember you posting but im horrible with the search function

just this past may i did -$7k in 2 weeks / 82 hours

that was part of a longer -$6k in 350 hours (2 months) at 2/5

and that downswing was a longer part of 650 hours winning 6 bucks an hour aka breakeven

that was late winter/spring of 2017. nothing bad happened to me in 2016 but in 2015 i did another 650 hour stretch at like $12/hr at 2/5

but my biggest and most tilting downswing in total buy ins was like 6-7 months into me playing poker, i lost like 21 buy ins ($8.5k total) at a mix of 1/3 and 2/5 in like 100 hours. this was spring 2014, **** i was like 21 years old i wanted to hang myself
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Old 08-02-2017, 07:53 PM   #19409
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Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
just this past may i did -$7k in 2 weeks / 82 hours

that was part of a longer -$6k in 350 hours (2 months) at 2/5

and that downswing was a longer part of 650 hours winning 6 bucks an hour aka breakeven

that was late winter/spring of 2017. nothing bad happened to me in 2016 but in 2015 i did another 650 hour stretch at like $12/hr at 2/5

but my biggest and most tilting downswing in total buy ins was like 6-7 months into me playing poker, i lost like 21 buy ins ($8.5k total) at a mix of 1/3 and 2/5 in like 100 hours. this was spring 2014, **** i was like 21 years old i wanted to hang myself

Most people just refuse to believe a winning player (for a good clip) could ever break even for over 500 hours until it happens to them. I know I didn't believe it until it happened to me. Put one of those stretches into a sample size of even 3K hours and the results still won't reflect your EV earned (unless you have a similar stretch of winning 2x your true WR). That's pretty much why I say there is no sample size in live poker really big enough to come to any conclusions. Better to just review your play each session and make sure you're always making theoretical dollars.
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Old 08-02-2017, 07:57 PM   #19410
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For additional info (1/3)

Since beginning tracking in April 2015

First 500 4/1/15 to 5/12/16 $20/hr (strictly Fri & Sat nights)
Second 500 5/13/16 to 12/4/16 $45/hr (sick heater, but playing more am and weekday games)
Third 500 12/5/16 to 5/1/17 $16/hr (includes brutal $4k downswing & little to no prime time hours)
Remaining 285ish hours 5/2/17 to current $26/hr

It seems unlikely I'll get back to the coveted $30/hr by 2,000 hours.
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Old 08-02-2017, 08:24 PM   #19411
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
just this past may i did -$7k in 2 weeks / 82 hours

that was part of a longer -$6k in 350 hours (2 months) at 2/5

and that downswing was a longer part of 650 hours winning 6 bucks an hour aka breakeven

that was late winter/spring of 2017. nothing bad happened to me in 2016 but in 2015 i did another 650 hour stretch at like $12/hr at 2/5

but my biggest and most tilting downswing in total buy ins was like 6-7 months into me playing poker, i lost like 21 buy ins ($8.5k total) at a mix of 1/3 and 2/5 in like 100 hours. this was spring 2014, **** i was like 21 years old i wanted to hang myself
Thanks for sharing. Coming off of a 500 hour stretch myself. Pretty surreal considering my first 1k hours of sun run, but i had actually just come to accept it. Then i went on a pretty sick heater april-june and was like "oh sh*t i can win again"

Hoping it continues.
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Old 08-02-2017, 08:25 PM   #19412
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Quote:
Originally Posted by water69 View Post
Most people just refuse to believe a winning player (for a good clip) could ever break even for over 500 hours until it happens to them. I know I didn't believe it until it happened to me. Put one of those stretches into a sample size of even 3K hours and the results still won't reflect your EV earned (unless you have a similar stretch of winning 2x your true WR). That's pretty much why I say there is no sample size in live poker really big enough to come to any conclusions. Better to just review your play each session and make sure you're always making theoretical dollars.
I agree and have posted similar thoughts over the last year. I'm closing in on 4000 hours and believe 1000 hour samples are just noise. Maybe 10,000 hours would give an accurate representation but I have a feeling the "long-term" is longer than a lifetime at live poker.
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Old 08-02-2017, 11:27 PM   #19413
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Many non-whale fish can't handle the swings of PLO and stop playing. I've seen it almost kill an entire room because half the players went broke and couldn't play at all until the first of the month.
This happened here in maryland. Last year the games were really juicy but the player pool went broke. Its a very cannabilistic game because you can lose a lot in a hurry and some of the people just never folded pre. Now the four card game is close to dead. All the fish are playing 5 card, which obv is a big game that u better be rolled for.

The thing is, edge is huge in 5card bc ppl have no clue how to rank starting hands
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Old 08-03-2017, 12:28 AM   #19414
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Thanks for sharing. Coming off of a 500 hour stretch myself. Pretty surreal considering my first 1k hours of sun run, but i had actually just come to accept it. Then i went on a pretty sick heater april-june and was like "oh sh*t i can win again"

Hoping it continues.
Lol i love that feeling when you finally start running hot or normal again after a long losing or b/e streak. Its a different kind of thrill than just winning 70% of sessions consistently
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Old 08-03-2017, 08:28 AM   #19415
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I see lots of strategy lines posted here by what I assume are good players, like a good amount of double barrelling scare cards, bluff check raising draws on the turn and things like that. I see it all the time when Im playing. I see guys doing it in real time at my tables. Things that I consider unnecessary plays causing chips to be spewed everywhere even though I know they are winners long term.

These same players post about long losing streaks and crazy variance and how 1000-2000 hrs is insignificant. Its hard for me to believe that you guys don't see that these things are related.

Keep those super aggro plays to an absolute minimum and your variance will decrease and your consistency as it relates to win rates will increase.
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Old 08-03-2017, 08:36 AM   #19416
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I see lots of strategy lines posted here by what I assume are good players, like a good amount of double barrelling scare cards, bluff check raising draws on the turn and things like that. I see it all the time when Im playing. I see guys doing it in real time at my tables. Things that I consider unnecessary plays causing chips to be spewed everywhere even though I know they are winners long term.

These same players post about long losing streaks and crazy variance and how 1000-2000 hrs is insignificant. Its hard for me to believe that you guys don't see that these things are related.

Keep those super aggro plays to an absolute minimum and your variance will decrease and your consistency as it relates to win rates will increase.

Huge +1. And i could have added many more aspects+ to elaborate on the aspects Mike mentions here.

As a single example i cant count all the 10-12 hour sessions i have been sitting there just folding hour after hour being totally carddead, executing patience at it finest. Only to stack a guy late at night when he is doing just _one_ big mistake and i take his 150 BB stack, and by that booking another long session with 10-12 BB hour winrate.

Winning poker longterm combined with aiming to lower the variance as much as possible is usually boring as f----,that is the reality.
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Old 08-03-2017, 09:12 AM   #19417
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Good aggression decreases variance.

Though I will agree that most aggression recommended in these forums is not good.
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Old 08-03-2017, 09:16 AM   #19418
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Good aggression decreases variance.

Though I will agree that most aggression recommended in these forums is not good.
Good aggression very well may decrease overall variance, but even good aggression can lead to huge losing streaks if you run into the top of peoples range over and over again. The same streak of running into big hands would be a much smaller losing streak if you weren't double and triple barrelling over and over.

When I run into the tops of people ranges over and over as I did very recently, I lose 6-7 buy ins. Not 13-20+ buy ins.

And Yes, a lot of the aggressive lines posted are crap in real life.
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Old 08-03-2017, 10:25 AM   #19419
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The Ultimate Grinder Leader Board

Back in the on line days of poker a site called PTR had the ultimate grinder leader board. If you won the most $ at yer stake you got an UGL badge. I personally never won one. I had a pal who was a stone cold killer that won 2 consecutive. He was an absolute beast.

In live cash games its really tough to have one of these cuz lol people make sht up. This past month I have personally witnessed a new ultimate grinder born in the 2/5 1k cap realm. I have played a lot of poker and know a lot of pros...and have never seen a combo as impressive as this. These are not my results but the hours are bravo verified and I have seen the fat stax o cash

warning this is obscene
Spoiler:
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Old 08-03-2017, 10:29 AM   #19420
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350 hours in one month? Kill me please.
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Old 08-03-2017, 10:33 AM   #19421
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Mike - I warned you that the numbers are obscene
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Old 08-03-2017, 10:47 AM   #19422
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Would spc be ok with sharing some high level aspects of how she approaches the game? Not looking to out specifics but i mean does she try to be as solid of a tag as she can be? Does she lag it up when deep? Light 3 bet ever? Or just straightforward face up value? Big sizing? Small sizing? Stfu ava?
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Old 08-03-2017, 11:38 AM   #19423
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I see lots of strategy lines posted here by what I assume are good players, like a good amount of double barrelling scare cards, bluff check raising draws on the turn and things like that. I see it all the time when Im playing. I see guys doing it in real time at my tables. Things that I consider unnecessary plays causing chips to be spewed everywhere even though I know they are winners long term.

These same players post about long losing streaks and crazy variance and how 1000-2000 hrs is insignificant. Its hard for me to believe that you guys don't see that these things are related.

Keep those super aggro plays to an absolute minimum and your variance will decrease and your consistency as it relates to win rates will increase.
its definitely related. also i dont think 1-2k hours is "insignificant", thats ridiculous. i just dont think you can look at your winrate after a 1k-hour sample and be like hmm ok thats my true winrate and im gonna plan my life around this number. but its still significant and can offer you some insight.

in addition to crazy long losing streaks, ive also had runs where i go +50k in 300 hours or crazy long hot streaks like a full year/~2k hours of running at 15bb/hr even though my overall winrate usually settles in like 25% lower.

being spewy and running hot at the same time is like the best thrill in poker
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Old 08-03-2017, 12:06 PM   #19424
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I agree and have posted similar thoughts over the last year. I'm closing in on 4000 hours and believe 1000 hour samples are just noise. Maybe 10,000 hours would give an accurate representation but I have a feeling the "long-term" is longer than a lifetime at live poker.
I'm about a recreational year away from 4000 hours in my 1/3 NL game, and (unless things change drastically over the next ~500 hours) I'm pretty sure I'm on target for the first 2000 hours to be twice as profitable as the last 2000 hours were. So you can probably guess what I think of lol 1000 hour sample sizes.

Course, it will take me 8.5 years to reach 4000 hours in my game. Obviously, conditions change over that time.

GconditionsistheonlythingthatmattersG
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Old 08-03-2017, 12:08 PM   #19425
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Would spc be ok with sharing some high level aspects of how she approaches the game? Not looking to out specifics but i mean does she try to be as solid of a tag as she can be? Does she lag it up when deep? Light 3 bet ever? Or just straightforward face up value? Big sizing? Small sizing? Stfu ava?
+1

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