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Old 07-26-2017, 10:46 AM   #19351
MIB211
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The problem with not being rolled for PLO is that PLO offers pretty much everything that a whale would desire in a poker game.

There's tons of actions so lots of money on the table. Everyone is playing a lot of hands pre, so whale isn't at as much of a disadvantage when he VPIPs 80%. Tons of variance so whale isn't always walking home a loser. You often flop equity so easy to see all five cards and get your hand to the river.

There was one whale in my game who said he didn't like PLO. I was shocked, and told him as much. When he finally tried it he realized he loves it and now every time he sits down he's at least requesting we play rotation.
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Old 07-26-2017, 11:45 AM   #19352
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The BR issue with live PLO is that pretty much everywhere that I've played, the lowest stakes have a $5 bring in and usually play ATLEAST as big as 2/5 NL if not bigger. And with the swings you need to be more rolled than you would for NL, so you almost need To be signif over rolled for 2/5 NL to play 1/2 plo with a $5 bring in. And even if you're a rec player and don't worry about BR, you're swings at the lowest plo game in the room are likely gonna be bigger than 2/5 NL which causes a lot of people to lose an amount of $ that makes them take extended breaks/quit.
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Old 07-26-2017, 11:47 AM   #19353
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There's just no PLO equivalent to 1/2 or 1/3 NL available in live poker.
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Old 07-26-2017, 12:13 PM   #19354
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There's just no PLO equivalent to 1/2 or 1/3 NL available in live poker.
In my experience plo plays 2 to 2.5x bigger than the same stake NL game

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Old 07-26-2017, 12:21 PM   #19355
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The nit-pot approach and hand selection are a great topic for another strategy type thread, so I'll leave that off for now.

But you can hold a PLO game down a little bit if you leave a $2 bring in instead of the $5. Keeps the initial open down to $10 and limits the initial pot size unless two guys re-pot each other.

Ideally I'd play $1/1 PLO to be more equivalent to a $1/2 NL ... problem is that it'll never fly with the whales.
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Old 07-26-2017, 08:31 PM   #19356
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Live plo is really simple and most 1/2 & 1/3 dont have the "variance" that people constantly attribute to it. Hand select well, nut peddle, fold non nut / 8 out draws to pot sized bets, bet pot at all times with your value. Its really simple, much more simple than NL for me.

Imagine a NL game where you almost always had great odds pre to call with your pocket pairs, and every single time you flop a set you are able to get stacks in vs a straight draw. That is plo.
These two paragraphs seem to contradict each other. Calling with a PP and hoping to stack off with a set in plo (at least in my game) is lighting money on fire. Bottom set on most boards is a terrible hand, middle set often unappealing as well.

There certainly could be regional differences that will cloud our opinions and cause us to disagree, but my game has frequent 3 betting and MW pots. I can easily see the Sklansky bucks to be made, but saying there's low variance doesn't relate to the games I see.

I dream of a 1/2 5 bring in plo game where everyone has $500 and there are few 3 bets pre. That sounds like fun and profit. But calling 20-30% of my stack pre, or folding and losing my initial 20-30 call, it isn't as much fun as I thought it would be.
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Old 07-26-2017, 09:19 PM   #19357
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You misread my post. Pay attention to bolded.

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Imagine a NL game where you almost always had great odds pre to call with your pocket pairs, and every single time you flop a set you are able to get stacks in vs a straight draw.
Flopping a set vs. straight draw is referring to NL, and the comparison being made is an equity comparison, not a literal hand comparison.

As you say pocket pairs, even medium pairs, are generally trash in plo.

But that doesnt mean we arent flopping 65% or even 70% equity, potting, and getting tons of action. (When we flop a pair and the nut flush, pot, and get called by a set. When we flop the nut straight and backdoor flush, pot, and get called by a bare flush draw. When we flop xxxx and get called by lol yyyy. The list goes on forever)

This happens to me at least several times a session. Being able to get a **** ton of money in as a 65/35 multiple times a night decreases variance, it doesnt increase it.

People are constantly talking about how thin equities run in plo but after the first 3 community cards are dealt it aint as thin and its one street at a time. Folks forget that and usually count both turn and river equity when really we are POTTING EACH STREET and getting called by domimated hands that do not have the proper equity to continue.

Straight draw may have been an exaggeration so I will amend my statement to:

Imagine in NL everytime you flopped a set you got it all in vs. a flush draw. That is how equity runs in plo with good hand selection pre and potting your value hands post.
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Old 07-26-2017, 10:41 PM   #19358
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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This happens to me at least several times a session. Being able to get a **** ton of money in as a 65/35 multiple times a night decreases variance, it doesnt increase it.
In NLHE, usually you can get two streets of value or more as a 70%+ favorite, even against 3ways.

Overpair vs TPTK OTF is 80/20

TPTK vs TP2K is 85/15

TPTK vs. TP2K and V2 with 30% of hands is 70/14/16

Granted its less $$$, but it would have to be way way more $$$ in PLO to overcome the difference.

E.g., in non-strict terms...
(NL $) * SD(70/14/16 type events) vs. (PLO $) * SD(65/35 type events)

Add to that the fact that you will play many more hands in PLO. (ETA... specifically, you'll play many more hands that are closer to 50/50.)

Add to that the fact that even excellent PLO players will make more mistakes then excellent NL players.

Last edited by Lapidator; 07-26-2017 at 11:02 PM.
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Old 07-27-2017, 12:44 AM   #19359
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Very nice!

What stakes / max BI?

G60hoursbehindyouG
Mostly 1/3 $300 max

Some 2/5 $500-1000 max dependant on location.
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Old 07-27-2017, 09:34 AM   #19360
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I think the fact that you play more hands actually decreases variance also since everyone plays more hands. Essentially you're sample size grows faster.
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Old 07-27-2017, 12:49 PM   #19361
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Mostly 1/3 $300 max

Some 2/5 $500-1000 max dependant on location.
Very impressive. I've played similar hours (3519) at 1/3 NL $300 max BI but only at 7.3 bb/hr, and my winrate has dropped drastically over the past ~1500 hours.

It's taken me about 7.5 years to reach this; you? I've found my tables have changed a lot over that time. Do you have any observations to make (noticing that it looks like you are currently on a 500 hour breakeven stretch)?

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Old 07-27-2017, 03:21 PM   #19362
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

You guys aren't discussing the need of a far stronger mental game when playing PLO because one can expect to lose multiple buyins easily and regularly despite playing well and end up dumping even more if that puts them on tilt.
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Old 07-27-2017, 03:30 PM   #19363
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You guys aren't discussing the need of a far stronger mental game when playing PLO because one can expect to lose multiple buyins easily and regularly despite playing well and end up dumping even more if that puts them on tilt.
Tilt is death in PLO, even more so than in NLHE. People are going to suck out on you. They're also going to hit weird runner-runner draws and you'll pay them off. You just can't tilt when that happens.
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Old 07-27-2017, 08:57 PM   #19364
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
But that doesnt mean we arent flopping 65% or even 70% equity, potting, and getting tons of action. (When we flop a pair and the nut flush, pot, and get called by a set. When we flop the nut straight and backdoor flush, pot, and get called by a bare flush draw. When we flop xxxx and get called by lol yyyy. The list goes on forever)

This happens to me at least several times a session. Being able to get a **** ton of money in as a 65/35 multiple times a night decreases variance, it doesnt increase it.
Honestly, I didn't misread your post. As I said (I won't bold my own words), we apparently play in different games. I rarely see HU pots: a single raise goes eleventeen ways, and a 3bet pot is usually still 3+ handed. So the idea of having 65% otf is unimaginable. I might have 35% in a 4 way spot and can ship my $300-500 stack in a 3bet pot, that's great in a vacuum but it ain't low variance.
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Old 07-27-2017, 09:12 PM   #19365
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Originally Posted by sw_emigre View Post
Honestly, I didn't misread your post. As I said (I won't bold my own words), we apparently play in different games. I rarely see HU pots: a single raise goes eleventeen ways, and a 3bet pot is usually still 3+ handed. So the idea of having 65% otf is unimaginable. I might have 35% in a 4 way spot and can ship my $300-500 stack in a 3bet pot, that's great in a vacuum but it ain't low variance.
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Old 07-27-2017, 09:38 PM   #19366
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by sw_emigre View Post
Honestly, I didn't misread your post. As I said (I won't bold my own words), we apparently play in different games. I rarely see HU pots: a single raise goes eleventeen ways, and a 3bet pot is usually still 3+ handed. So the idea of having 65% otf is unimaginable. I might have 35% in a 4 way spot and can ship my $300-500 stack in a 3bet pot, that's great in a vacuum but it ain't low variance.
This.
If your 3! Pots are heads up your in the world's worst plo game

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Old 07-27-2017, 09:50 PM   #19367
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Honestly, I didn't misread your post.
Yes, you did. You talked about set value in plo which is not what i was talking about at all, and i clearly corrected for you. I also no where said heads up pot. Ive never seen a heads up pot in plo.

The fact remains that you can and should nut peddle in plo, and most often if you flop the nuts you have >60% single street equity.

Im done explaining.
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Old 07-28-2017, 12:22 PM   #19368
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This happens to me at least several times a session. Being able to get a **** ton of money in as a 65/35 multiple times a night decreases variance, it doesnt increase it.
Is it worth it to continue talking about the difference between variance and downswings? Being able to frequently get a lot of money in as a favorite leads to a big edge, which helps mitigate downswings. Frequently putting in lots of money also increases variance. Variance by itself only describes the range of results you can expect, not how much or how often you can expect to lose.

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I think the fact that you play more hands actually decreases variance also since everyone plays more hands. Essentially you're sample size grows faster.
It doesn't work that way. Folding pre is zero EV and zero variance. Anything but folding will have positive variance. Hands where you fold pre still count as part of your sample unless you track hands in a very non-standard way.
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Old 07-28-2017, 01:48 PM   #19369
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It doesn't work that way. Folding pre is zero EV and zero variance. Anything but folding will have positive variance. Hands where you fold pre still count as part of your sample unless you track hands in a very non-standard way.

If you play 5 all in pots with 70% equity or 50 pots with 70% equity at which point should your results be closer to EV? Obv are both lol sample size but my point is the more pots you play the bigger your sample size is and the more your results regress towards the mean.

Decreases variance was the wrong choice of words, I should've said increases sample size, so variance will play less of a role in your results.
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Old 07-28-2017, 02:00 PM   #19370
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It doesn't work that way. Folding pre is zero EV and zero variance. Anything but folding will have positive variance. Hands where you fold pre still count as part of your sample unless you track hands in a very non-standard way.
I would disagree with this. Or at least, you don't feel the variance as much because you get through it quicker. But this is as long as you can still keep your edge. In 3 hours, If 1 guy has 3 all ins with 60% equity, reasonable chance he loses overall. If in 3 hrs, another guy has 10 all ins with 60%, much less chance he loses, as I'm sure you know.
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Old 07-28-2017, 09:52 PM   #19371
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Yes, you did. You talked about set value in plo which is not what i was talking about at all, and i clearly corrected for you. I also no where said heads up pot. Ive never seen a heads up pot in plo.

The fact remains that you can and should nut peddle in plo, and most often if you flop the nuts you have >60% single street equity.

Im done explaining.
4 way (as an example) to the flop, and you have over 60% How often do you think you're getting this spot? Once an hour, once a session? You have to contort the board pretty hard to make an example.

I done pretending you can explain.
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Old 07-29-2017, 07:15 AM   #19372
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Originally Posted by sw_emigre View Post
4 way (as an example) to the flop, and you have over 60% How often do you think you're getting this spot? Once an hour, once a session? You have to contort the board pretty hard to make an example.

I done pretending you can explain.
He's talking about flop>turn.
Youre talking about flop>turn>river.
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Old 07-29-2017, 03:13 PM   #19373
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PLO is actually much, much easier to play and the difference between how people play and how they are supposed to play is much bigger. The fish are fishier. They are either nut peddlers who dont get the nuts often enough in hold em or they are the ppl who want to play every hand and will be wiped out in nlhe

There are multiple inflection points in Omaha so you can get away with playing solely to control variance (flatting AAxx from the SB, for example, never 3betting) and always take pot control lines, so your style can define your BR.
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Old 07-29-2017, 04:02 PM   #19374
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So, inspired by Angrist's charts, I decided to take my data and play with them in Excel yesterday. The key part is choosing the best trendline and I am not sure I did, so based on the feedback I get, hopefully, I can make the second versions of those charts more interesting.

First, because there was some conversation about how one's play is affected according to how many hours he's been playing, i did a chart on big blind profit based on game duration.



Excel offers 4 ways to do a trendline. Linear, logarithmic, polynomial and moving average. On this chart I used the polynomial because it sort of tells a story. As I play more hours I tend to win more. Then as I reach 10-14 hours my profits fall, only to rise again on longer sessions.

Since there are so few data after the 10 hour mark, I don't think cannot draw any safe conclusions. The data is too unreliable.

Thinking about game duration's impact on profit however, i think this is the crux of the matter.

Do I win less because I play long hours and I am tired, or do I win less, because I am stuck and I play longer hours so as to get unstuck. A lot of posters have said that it's the former. I tend to think it's the latter. It's far easier for me to show discipline and get up after 8 or 9 hours. I get more stubborn trying to make a losing session a winning one.

Then I did a chart that showed my profit in blinds by session.



This all looks pretty random (and that gives a bit of a perspective about what you should expect when you visit the casino each time) save for the fact that as time goes by, I tend to have sessions with larger wins and losses. That's probably misleading however. In the beginning of those results, I tended to play shorter sessions; while the past couple of years the tendency is to play longer ones.

That's why, I divided session profit by session duration to get an hourly BB/hr rate per session. This gave me this:



The discrepancy between the early and the late period isn't as big as it is on the previous chart. However, the trendline does show that as time goes by, average profit tends to increase. Hopefully, that reflects the fact that I have been improving as a player.

What I wanted to do is do the thing Angrist does by tracking my hourly based on the last 100, 500 and 1000 hours. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find a way to do that on Excel. I am not even sure that this is the stat I should actually be attempting this with.

If anyone has any suggestions on how to do it, I will be happy to hear them.
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Old 07-29-2017, 08:52 PM   #19375
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Good job, DK.

As a plo reg I've got to say NLHE had way more room for exploit and I'd therefore way more fun in a good game. NLHE is just tougher that's all, at high stakes people are better. PLO don't necessarily offer but get edges inherently. Fish who move to PLO usually lose less or slower there (win sometimes to balance out).
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