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Old 07-06-2017, 02:57 PM   #19251
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
On of my poker friends puts up a good $20/hr at $1/2 pretty consistently.
But what does that mean though? Anyone can put up 10bb/hr over certain stretches, I'm sure we've all done it. What's his overall bottom line though?

Just so I"m absolutely clear: I've yet to see anyone post a 10bb/hr winrate here over a significant sample size at 1/2 or 1/3 with a 100bb max BI (correct me if I'm wrong by pointing to the post#). Comparing these stakes to 2/5 (especially anything with a larger max BI) is simply not a fair comparison as all these games are often raked exactly the same (no?) and yet 2/5 (especially with a larger max BI) gives far more opportunity to outrun the affect of rake.

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Old 07-06-2017, 03:06 PM   #19252
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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
Lol at 5-7bb/hr being "average."

Most 2p2ers are not winning players (after rake) imo.

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I totally agree, and wrote that initial post in a confusing way. Im not even sure how Id correct what i was trying to say, but i meant Id guess the average winrate of a good winning live player is probably 5-7bb/hr. All conjecture of course, but the path of this thread is that the number is 10bb/hr. I think that is the upper bound. And many in that upper bound are simply outliers due to variance.

Ignoring 200bb-uncapped game structures.
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Old 07-06-2017, 03:34 PM   #19253
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
But what does that mean though? Anyone can put up 10bb/hr over certain stretches, I'm sure we've all done it. What's his overall bottom line though?

Just so I"m absolutely clear: I've yet to see anyone post a 10bb/hr winrate here over a significant sample size at 1/2 or 1/3 with a 100bb max BI (correct me if I'm wrong by pointing to the post#). Comparing these stakes to 2/5 (especially anything with a larger max BI) is simply not a fair comparison as all these games are often raked exactly the same (no?) and yet 2/5 (especially with a larger max BI) gives far more opportunity to outrun the affect of rake.

GquestioningauthorityG
It means little statistically because his sample size is still lowish. Overall bottom line is very good. But yea, not the sample size you're looking for. Might be 1000 hours, honestly not too sure off the top of my head though.

I'm posing it for comparison. Someone that I speak to about hands and villains, and I know works his ass off studying the game can get there. And get there often over an OK window. So I think that *if* you could maintain that kind of effort and discipline over a long time, and game select well, 10bb/hr would be possible over a decent sample. But it would be near the very top of what I'd expect for long term winrate.
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Old 07-06-2017, 03:53 PM   #19254
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1000 hours is so lol. Don't make me drag out my 2000 hour results vs my ~1500 hour results comparisons!

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Old 07-06-2017, 04:10 PM   #19255
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Oh yea, I'm probably one of the few other people here that have long enough records to lose faith in 500-1000+ hour samples.

The eye test says that it should be possible, just very difficult. Not easy enough to toss around as a general rule.
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Old 07-06-2017, 04:13 PM   #19256
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
1000 hours is so lol. Don't make me drag out my 2000 hour results vs my ~1500 hour results comparisons!

GcluelessNLnoobG
You have said yourself that your room increased the rake and villains got better. So isn't that likely to be the reason for the drop off, rather than statistical noise?

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Old 07-06-2017, 04:22 PM   #19257
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Originally Posted by niceguy22 View Post
You have said yourself that your room increased the rake and villains got better. So isn't that likely to be the reason for the drop off, rather than statistical noise?

Nithink1000hoursmeansmorethanyouthinkitmeansG
GG has to be the nittiest regular poster here. I think that's probably the major factor in what he reports as a steadily dropping win rate. He has said himself that he has tightened up even more lately. There's a point where you get too tight and nobody besides a random donk passing thru your room will pay you off.
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Old 07-06-2017, 04:23 PM   #19258
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I mean, isn't there math that tells us what confidence we can have in a 1000 hour sample +-? Pretty sure this has been done before ITT.
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Old 07-06-2017, 04:31 PM   #19259
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Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
I mean, isn't there math that tells us what confidence we can have in a 1000 hour sample +-? Pretty sure this has been done before ITT.
That's all well and good, but when you post a difference in winrates that I've posted of my first 2000 hours vs my last ~1500 hours *in the same game*, then you kinda of take that math with a grain of salt.

As others have mentioned above, there's lots of factors (and I won't deny any of them mentioned above). But one of them is that 1000 hours is **** all, especially if conditions can change. And this is part of my point. Can someone at the lower staked heavily raked games post a 10bb/hr over a hit-and-run sample size where conditions remain constant / etc.? Of course, we all probably have. But who is doing it *long term*? Haven't seen any proof of it yet (again, I'm kinda ignoring Squiddy's 2/5 NL game results since I believe there is quite a difference between the taxes in that game as opposed to the 1/2 and 1/3, and even comparing 1/2 and 1/3 might be quite lolz regarding this, although I could definitely be wrong on this).

ETA: FWIW, my results have ~doubled since I started nittying it up even more earlier this year (winrate during that time more returning to one of the past), but obviously very lol sample size and very good chance I've simply run well during that time.

Geveryoneelseisplayingintheexactsameconditionsthey were8yearsago?G

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Old 07-06-2017, 08:55 PM   #19260
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
What were your conclusions?

I'm still not convinced such a small sample size tells us much, unless we really start grouping hands/positions together. At the 2000 mark, I thought to myself "damn, I wish I had been tracking all my hands by position, I would have an stone cold proof database of profitable vs unprofitable hands by now". But then I worked backwards, and long story short, realized the profitability of playing 55 UTG would have boiled down to how I did when I flopped a set ~4 times (really, I'm going to conclude anything from what happened on 4 hands?!?!).

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Your signature sums it up, in that most of my conclusions are accepted wisdom that I hadn't really accepted. I came from an online background, with constant 100+BB stacks and 2.5x pfr; in comparison to llsnl, you can play very loose online when you have position. Live, 1/3 stack depth is sometimes so bad that basically we should be folding most everything to a raise. (2/5 1K cap is much better ldo.) So I moved my game from LAG to TAG (which looks to the average llsnl rec as borderline nit).

Anyway, conclusions: I took calling almost completely out of my game. Suited cards just don't pay well enough as a caller, including Axs. (There was a HH thread recently about something like QJs otb, vs utg nit and no other callers iirc, the predictible call vs fold pre discussion ensued. Someone wrote that if the fold that hand otb they'll die inside. Well, these days, I'm likely to fold it as well. The last HH I posted, the only one in ages, was a spot IP with A6s, shoulda just folded pre.)

Also, I (no longer) almost never limp from EP/MP--I know you do and others do and have success and that's fine, but I saw l/c as a huge leak in my game. Waaaay too much l/c, c/f otf lines. I also found that in pots less than $100, I was essentially break even. Almost all of my money comes from big pots. Or as been said before, "AA/KK/btn, all the rest is meta." This is helpful in getting me into a more patient mindset, now that I don't have 6 tables of button clicking to attend to.

Again, nothing profound, but it is pretty different data from online, and I think the changes are good. Boring, but good. I just needed some numerical data to convince me. Most people don't think it's worth it but I always encourage those who want to give it a go, I think it's worthwhile.

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Old 07-06-2017, 09:08 PM   #19261
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Can confirm Squidder is a stone cold crusher at the $2/5 game (WR is $54 over 2500 hours). Have seen the stats first hand. Plus he is the GOAT recreator and a super nice guy to boot. (mikestarr, how about a 2+2 meetup at wallaby?)

However he is a STONE COLD FISH at the tech game. My dude won't even let me show him how to post his giraffes!
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Old 07-07-2017, 12:55 AM   #19262
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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
???????

Wtf is your point
As it turned out, he was a 53% favorite with two cards to come, but as played he could have been drawing dead even if he hit his flush.
We didn't get all the details on how the hand played out but v could have also easily had AsXs (AsKs is not unimaginable) . I think he said it was only raised to 50 preflop, the other 950 each went in on the flop.
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Old 07-07-2017, 02:46 AM   #19263
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Now imagine if they were together. Youd be fishing right now (and much happier imo)
I'm not sure if that would have been enough to take me out. It may have been close with expenses coming out at the same time. I would have moved down to 1|2 and put more hours in to make up for the lower win-rate(I actually almost did). Quitting poker is a desperate last resort for me as I find most traditional jobs abhorrent.

I definitely disagree that I'd be happier. I am currently very happy with my lifestyle, and I'm in a much better financial situation and deal with less stress than most of my close friends and family. My life has improved dramatically since I started playing poker seriously in August 2015.

It is possible to make a living for oneself playing 2|5 and be happy doing it. The achievable win-rate is plenty to support oneself without even playing full-time hours. I make more money with less stress than both of my parents together and I'm only 23. This is not meant to be a brag. I just get annoyed by the huge number of posts against professional poker.

I hope this is on topic enough for the thread.
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Old 07-07-2017, 03:09 AM   #19264
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What's the longest break even streak u already have? Mine was around one week +, playing mtts n cash games on side. Currently have around $245...hope playing satellites to climb bigger games unfortunately I may cash in/won tickets like 2/10...

Tips?

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Old 07-07-2017, 03:19 AM   #19265
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I'm not sure if that would have been enough to take me out. It may have been close with expenses coming out at the same time. I would have moved down to 1|2 and put more hours in to make up for the lower win-rate(I actually almost did). Quitting poker is a desperate last resort for me as I find most traditional jobs abhorrent.

I definitely disagree that I'd be happier. I am currently very happy with my lifestyle, and I'm in a much better financial situation and deal with less stress than most of my close friends and family. My life has improved dramatically since I started playing poker seriously in August 2015.

It is possible to make a living for oneself playing 2|5 and be happy doing it. The achievable win-rate is plenty to support oneself without even playing full-time hours. I make more money with less stress than both of my parents together and I'm only 23. This is not meant to be a brag. I just get annoyed by the huge number of posts against professional poker.

I hope this is on topic enough for the thread.

Thank you browni for writing this post, and by that giving this debate some much needed nuances.
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Old 07-07-2017, 07:05 AM   #19266
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Thank you browni for writing this post, and by that I mean having a similar opinion to me that fits my world view.
FYP.

A lot of people ITT are profitable or hope to be soon and are taking the steps to improve. A very noble endeavor IMO.

What I find interesting is that I am friends with several pros (all 10bb/hr winners in $2/5) who currently or are looking for other avenues for supplemental income. It's not because they have pit problems or they're on a cold run. Nor do they want to give up their significant freedom they enjoy as their own boss. To a person, they come to a realization that grinding in a casino is not very fulfilling, can be toxic, and still be stressful all at once.

While not a 10bb winner, I am a profitable player and enjoy poker as a profitable hobby while making good money in the square world. I never feel soul crushed when I go to the casino; in fact, I'm excited to go! To a person, these pros all go through that soul-crushing feeling of walking into a casino sometimes (some more than others).

My advice would be to be open to having several sources of income, poker being one. You'll still have freedom and you will minimize your burnout.
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Old 07-07-2017, 07:11 AM   #19267
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Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
FYP.

A lot of people ITT are profitable or hope to be soon and are taking the steps to improve. A very noble endeavor IMO.

What I find interesting is that I am friends with several pros (all 10bb/hr winners in $2/5) who currently or are looking for other avenues for supplemental income. It's not because they have pit problems or they're on a cold run. Nor do they want to give up their significant freedom they enjoy as their own boss. To a person, they come to a realization that grinding in a casino is not very fulfilling, can be toxic, and still be stressful all at once.

While not a 10bb winner, I am a profitable player and enjoy poker as a profitable hobby while making good money in the square world. I never feel soul crushed when I go to the casino; in fact, I'm excited to go! To a person, these pros all go through that soul-crushing feeling of walking into a casino sometimes (some more than others).

My advice would be to be open to having several sources of income, poker being one. You'll still have freedom and you will minimize your burnout.

You dont need to step into the life teacher role, neither do you need to change my post from my original form to try and make stupid/simple points to get across your assumptions about me and my situation. I already know i have what i takes "to make it", and a single post from a winning 2-5 player at these forums doesent change that.

I ment exactly what i said about brownis post: its nice to see some nuances in these debates, and not just exclusively pessimistic negative posts from burned out players speaking from a dark place of mind.
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Old 07-07-2017, 07:25 AM   #19268
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I ment exactly what i said about brownis post: its nice to see some nuances in these debates, and not just exclusively pessimistic negative posts from burned out players speaking from a dark place of mind.


It appears that playing poker professionally leads someone down one of two paths:

1) the happy go lucky player whose opinions are that of sunshine and rainbows

2) the burned out player whose opinions are from dark places

Planning for 2 and hoping for 1 is probably the best thing someone could do, but it appears people rarely plan for 2 and assume 1 will last forever.

It just seems like there is no middle ground in this debate.
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Old 07-07-2017, 07:31 AM   #19269
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Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
It appears that playing poker professionally leads someone down one of two paths:

1) the happy go lucky player whose opinions are that of sunshine and rainbows

2) the burned out player whose opinions are from dark places

Planning for 2 and hoping for 1 is probably the best thing someone could do, but it appears people rarely plan for 2 and assume 1 will last forever.

It just seems like there is no middle ground in this debate.
Good post, and you are totally correct in my opinion. Playing poker fulltime is infact quite similar to the smoking cigarettes debate, where the ex-smokers are the worst of everybody when it comes to polarization and negativity towards the debate.

Like, people who have never smoked a single cigarette is just casual about it and wont do it- but the ex-smokers that have quit after being fulltime smokers for many years are on there toes to a laughable exctent. They just cant manage to state how awful it is to smoke, how horrible it smells, how bad of a person you are if you do choose to smoke-and so on and so on. They seem to have developed a strong unexplainable desire (need) to decide for everybody that they cant smoke anymore. Like, they have seen the light in person, so now theyre suddenly a genius and want to enlighten everybody else of how to live their lifes. How noble.

And no- i am not a smoker myself.
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Old 07-07-2017, 08:08 AM   #19270
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Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
You dont need to step into the life teacher role, neither do you need to change my post from my original form to try and make stupid/simple points to get across your assumptions about me and my situation. I already know i have what i takes "to make it", and a single post from a winning 2-5 player at these forums doesent change that.

I ment exactly what i said about brownis post: its nice to see some nuances in these debates, and not just exclusively pessimistic negative posts from burned out players speaking from a dark place of mind.
Based on your response, I'm guessing you DON'T have what it takes to be a successful pro. You continually show yourself to have thin skin and are unwilling to consider alternative viewpoints. All the people I know who crush as pro poker players are 100% the opposite. These are the tools that give a player longevity in the gambling world, not how to play AK in a 3 bet pot OOP.

Then again, what do I know? I'm not a 10bb crusher like you. I am but a man with simple and stupid ideas who reports what he sees: the vast majority of poker pros look for ways to make other sources of income, and eventually most burn out and get out of the business entirely. Many have told me they feel trapped and start conversations along the lines of "if I had to do it all over again..."

I hope you do prove me and the standard wrong and become the Norwegian crusher of poker. I just wouldn't give up your day job just yet if I were you.

Last edited by Garick; 07-07-2017 at 08:26 AM. Reason: insult removed
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Old 07-07-2017, 08:08 AM   #19271
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Good post, and you are totally correct in my opinion. Playing poker fulltime is infact quite similar to the smoking cigarettes debate, where the ex-smokers are the worst of everybody when it comes to polarization and negativity towards the debate.

Like, people who have never smoked a single cigarette is just casual about it and wont do it- but the ex-smokers that have quit after being fulltime smokers for many years are on there toes to a laughable exctent. They just cant manage to state how awful it is to smoke, how horrible it smells, how bad of a person you are if you do choose to smoke-and so on and so on. They seem to have developed a strong unexplainable desire (need) to decide for everybody that they cant smoke anymore. Like, they have seen the light in person, so now theyre suddenly a genius and want to enlighten everybody else of how to live their lifes. How noble.

And no- i am not a smoker myself.


Strange anology


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Old 07-07-2017, 08:23 AM   #19272
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Originally Posted by 3K_TOM17 View Post
What's the longest break even streak u already have? Mine was around one week +, playing mtts n cash games on side. Currently have around $245...hope playing satellites to climb bigger games unfortunately I may cash in/won tickets like 2/10...

Tips?

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This is a Live Cash forum. I'd try the Small Stakes MTT forum. We don't really look into returns/BR requirements for MTTs. When you ask, please indicate your ABI and your volume, as "a week" could mean just about anything in terms of number of tourneys played.
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Old 07-07-2017, 08:30 AM   #19273
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Then again, what do I know? I'm not a 10bb crusher like you. I am but a man with simple and stupid ideas who reports what he sees: the vast majority of poker pros look for ways to make other sources of income, and eventually most burn out and get out of the business entirely. Many have told me they feel trapped and start conversations along the lines of "if I had to do it all over again..."

I think this is probably because the barrier of entry into more mainstream professions, especially ones that make equal to or more than poker players can make, is probably extremely difficult once someone is above a certain age. Not to mention that many pro poker players either forgo higher education altogether or quit mid-way through, that most higher paying professions require.

Unfortunately though, as many people get older, their expenses increase. Families are expensive. Many people don't have that in their early/mid 20s, many people do have that in their early/mid 30s

I can very easily imagine a 30ish y/o grinder who got married and just had their first kid now feeling the pressure of having to produce day in and day out and the stress level just sky rocketing. The joys and freedoms that poker used to have fade away as life away from the tables becomes more difficult.

Don't get me wrong, there are obv people who can do it, but like things like professional sports, how many people try to do it and how many people actually succeed?
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Old 07-07-2017, 08:32 AM   #19274
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Good post, and you are totally correct in my opinion. Playing poker fulltime is infact quite similar to the smoking cigarettes debate, where the ex-smokers are the worst of everybody when it comes to polarization and negativity towards the debate.

Like, people who have never smoked a single cigarette is just casual about it and wont do it- but the ex-smokers that have quit after being fulltime smokers for many years are on there toes to a laughable exctent. They just cant manage to state how awful it is to smoke, how horrible it smells, how bad of a person you are if you do choose to smoke-and so on and so on. They seem to have developed a strong unexplainable desire (need) to decide for everybody that they cant smoke anymore. Like, they have seen the light in person, so now theyre suddenly a genius and want to enlighten everybody else of how to live their lifes. How noble.

And no- i am not a smoker myself.
I'm an ex-smoker and from my perspective you're 100% wrong. I don't preach at all.

Not sure what you're driving at here buddy.
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Old 07-07-2017, 08:46 AM   #19275
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Don't get me wrong, there are obv people who can do it, but like things like professional sports, how many people try to do it and how many people actually succeed?
By my count there are less than 10 actual pros that I recognize in my room that have been around since I started playing cash games seriously in 2010. And that's being generous.

My room is one of the largest in the US and is consistently the busiest in the country in terms of active to actual tables so it stands to reason there would be more who have survived the last 7 or so years. And yet, pros come and go like clockwork. Weird.
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