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Old 07-05-2017, 06:54 PM   #19226
sw_emigre
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sorry my responses are to topics a week old or so, I'm not itt often enough:

@Joey913: article from June 2p2 mag, I think you'll find it helpful, it's about the mental blocks that keep us stuck as low-variance small winners: https://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/...ant-to-win.php

Re: building a live hands database: I did this for a few hundred hours, I found it very helpful. I only tracked VPIP hands, notes in phone notepad, manually transferred to Excel. Yes it is as time consuming as it sounds, though taking notes at the table can be done in 20 sec. The COTM on this topic "Off Table Analysis" is where I got my start on it. I don't do it anymore, but it was worth the effort when I switched from online to live.

What I was able to build, the only categories I had even close to much data on, were small pots vs big pots, flat calls, and certain hand types (monsters, Axs, etc). Some of my conclusions most of you already know, but sometimes we need to go through it and see it ourselves before we accept the conventional wisdom.
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Old 07-05-2017, 06:58 PM   #19227
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by randomcards View Post
1. Anybody have a real feel for how much winrates vary from weekdays vs. Fri/Sat (2/5 - 5/10 NL specifically)?
This is periodically discussed ITT. It's really hard to get a meaningful sample broken down by day of the week. But anecdotally and by the eye test, weekend games should be better. Maybe 30% better, maybe 50% or more, it'll depend on how well you adapt between a tighter game and a looser game really. An adaptive player will make more in general in both games, while a static player will see more of a difference.

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2. Any reads on how much winrates vary if you are an unknown 'good' player vs a known good player?
Depends on how well you exploit random players vs. players you have history with (seriously, there are guys I can bluff off a set). You're probably more likely to get paid off by a random and have less FE in bluffing type spots, unless your locals think you're an aggrotard and those'll be flipped.

If we're talking straight ABC simple stuff, being unknown is good for you though.

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3. Thoughts on my 5/10 shot taking strategy below? Good or foolish?

<snip>
I think your baseline strategy is OK. I'm not thrilled with the idea of sitting with a single BI for a game though. I'd rather sit down when I can peel off at least 2. If you get it in good and lose, and the table is juicy, you want to be able to stay.

Otherwise, I'd say to play the table selection more by ear. If the game *looks* good, and/or you know some of the other players from your $2/5 experience ... sit. If the game looks bad but your other criteria are still met ... play elsewhere.
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Old 07-05-2017, 08:39 PM   #19228
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have a massive sample of 2/5 hours. Sadly my computer was stolen. However, Being old skewl I still have written documents but they are in storage. I will eventually retrieve them and put them into my phone. Here is my results from my last 2500 hours of 2/5

profit 135,453
$/hr 54.14
duration 2501 hrs
cashed 291/445

the graph is pretty much 45 degrees

the other 8k+ hrs or so with post bf results are the same
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Old 07-05-2017, 09:09 PM   #19229
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I just realized these are simply numbers I am poasting up here and I can be completely pulling them outta my ass. I am not. Tomorrow I will be gamboolin and well known llsnl poaster Death Cab For Tootie will be there. I will show him my phone and he can scroll through it and check out all my stats etc. He can then poast up here and verify my stuff.

addl info

biggest DS is about 7k iirc
longest b/e is approx 250 hrs

I am not putting in hardcore volume any more as I simply do not need to. Sold the house and have plenty o cabbage. Kid is in college and well funded. So I am more focused on recreatin. But the 10bb/hr thing is still plenty doable. I do this without cherrypicking hrs. I played from 11:45 am today (wed july5) till 5:30 pm. Obviously the opposite of prime hours
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Old 07-05-2017, 09:19 PM   #19230
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
I just realized these are simply numbers I am poasting up here and I can be completely pulling them outta my ass. I am not. Tomorrow I will be gamboolin and well known llsnl poaster Death Cab For Tootie will be there. I will show him my phone and he can scroll through it and check out all my stats etc. He can then poast up here and verify my stuff.

addl info

biggest DS is about 7k iirc
longest b/e is approx 250 hrs

I am not putting in hardcore volume any more as I simply do not need to. Sold the house and have plenty o cabbage. Kid is in college and well funded. So I am more focused on recreatin. But the 10bb/hr thing is still plenty doable. I do this without cherrypicking hrs. I played from 11:45 am today (wed july5) till 5:30 pm. Obviously the opposite of prime hours
Its plenty doable for the top ~2% of players at these stakes. Other than that...forget it.
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Old 07-05-2017, 09:25 PM   #19231
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey mike - You are one hunnit percent correct in that statement. I was just skimming through the thread and saw what looked like people saying it aint possible. But I am proof it is. So is Rob Farha, goose, Gerald, and a bunch o others I know.
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Old 07-05-2017, 10:27 PM   #19232
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
I have a massive sample of 2/5 hours. Sadly my computer was stolen. However, Being old skewl I still have written documents but they are in storage. I will eventually retrieve them and put them into my phone. Here is my results from my last 2500 hours of 2/5

profit 135,453
$/hr 54.14
duration 2501 hrs
cashed 291/445

the graph is pretty much 45 degrees

the other 8k+ hrs or so with post bf results are the same
But you see this is kind of the point I think. You are a very good player with lots of history and experience and one of the few who "gets it" imo (which we both know certainly adds at least a bb to your wr) and even you are right at the cusp of the "standard" 10bb/hr.

Like basically I look at your results and feel ALOT better about my own bc I was originally thinking any dude with a 2p2 account was cruising along 2/5 at 10bb/hr but now when I see someone I really respect and know is a good player just slightly above it...it makes me realize it really is a huge achievement and that "average" is probably 5-7bb/hr.

imho

Also, only a 250hr be stretch over 8K hours? FU
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Old 07-05-2017, 10:37 PM   #19233
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by randomcards View Post
A single 5/10 buy-in, but if I lose it I'll go play a normal 2/5 session same night. I recognize that may make for some quick 5/10 shots. One of my 1k losses was actually on the first hand I sat down.

I called a $50 raise in the BB with QJ; Flop comes 9104x. We get it all in, villain had 10-9 for flopped 2 pair and I whiffed.

I just went and played 2/5.
If it doesn't affect the way you play then that's fine. Still, if you do well at 5/T and find the games quite beatable then I think your goal should be to eventually start bringing multiple bullets each session.

My previous advice stands though. I'm guessing 2/5 will be more profitable for you in most markets.
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Old 07-05-2017, 10:53 PM   #19234
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by randomcards View Post
A single 5/10 buy-in, but if I lose it I'll go play a normal 2/5 session same night. I recognize that may make for some quick 5/10 shots. One of my 1k losses was actually on the first hand I sat down.

I called a $50 raise in the BB with QJ; Flop comes 9104x. We get it all in, villain had 10-9 for flopped 2 pair and I whiffed.

I just went and played 2/5.
Not counting a Q or J (as you wouldnt be good if you hit one), you had 15 outs with 47 unknown cards.You were 53% vs 47% with two cards to come. I know we like to push value, but that is $1,000 coin flip.
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Old 07-05-2017, 10:59 PM   #19235
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Really it's a $2,000 coin flip.
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Old 07-05-2017, 11:52 PM   #19236
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by kb5zcr View Post
Not counting a Q or J (as you wouldnt be good if you hit one), you had 15 outs with 47 unknown cards.You were 53% vs 47% with two cards to come. I know we like to push value, but that is $1,000 coin flip.
Seems like a pretty easy spot to get it in if I am not scared of the money, and I can't be scared of the money if I am going to take 5/10 shots lol. I was pretty sure I was at worst a coin flip, and better than a coin flip against some
value holdings.

Maybe I don't get it in deeper, but 100BBs in a very deepstacked game seemed pretty standard.
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Old 07-05-2017, 11:57 PM   #19237
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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
I]
My previous advice stands though. I'm guessing 2/5 will be more profitable for you in most markets.
Totally agree with this. My 2/5 edge realistically probably almost totally evaporates (or maybe even is negative) in 5/10. So hourly $win/rate would certainly be higher at 2/5 even with the stake difference.

That said, as a rec player who isn't playing for income (but isn't playing to lose personal non-bankroll money either) there is a part of me that wants to keep challenging my game at higher levels to both improve and frankly just test my skills.

Don't want to do the above in a way that is wildly money losing though!
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Old 07-05-2017, 11:58 PM   #19238
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by kb5zcr View Post
Not counting a Q or J (as you wouldnt be good if you hit one), you had 15 outs with 47 unknown cards.You were 53% vs 47% with two cards to come. I know we like to push value, but that is $1,000 coin flip.
???????

Wtf is your point
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Old 07-06-2017, 12:09 AM   #19239
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Depends on how well you exploit random players vs. players you have history with (seriously, there are guys I can bluff off a set). You're probably more likely to get paid off by a random and have less FE in bluffing type spots, unless your locals think you're an aggrotard and those'll be flipped.

If we're talking straight ABC simple stuff, being unknown is good for you though.
Agreed!

I generally find walking into a reg heavy weeknight game as a 'travelling businessman unknown' the most profitable thing is try to show down as few hands as possible in the first 60-90 minutes and play nitty or aggro based on the table dynamics and cards I'm getting dealt. Then the first couple of hands I show down, immediately switch gears and play the opposite strategy.

For example if I seem to nit it up for first hour due to being card dead, I'll wait until first really strong hand, play it super ABC and show it whether called or not like a donk rec player. Then rapidly switch to playing a much more laggy style and staying with that until the table starts to catch on (or I'm forced to show cards that go against the story from the first hour).

Normally in a typical 3-4 hour session just switching gears like this once/maybe twice based on what cards get shown seems extremely profitable as most of the regs assume once they see my perceived style that I'll stay with that. This obviously work for one or two sessions based on table church. But since my average is one 4 hour session at a casino it seems to be super profitable...
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Old 07-06-2017, 03:13 AM   #19240
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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???????

Wtf is your point
+1
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Old 07-06-2017, 09:17 AM   #19241
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
But you see this is kind of the point I think. You are a very good player with lots of history and experience and one of the few who "gets it" imo (which we both know certainly adds at least a bb to your wr) and even you are right at the cusp of the "standard" 10bb/hr.

Like basically I look at your results and feel ALOT better about my own bc I was originally thinking any dude with a 2p2 account was cruising along 2/5 at 10bb/hr but now when I see someone I really respect and know is a good player just slightly above it...it makes me realize it really is a huge achievement and that "average" is probably 5-7bb/hr.

imho

Also, only a 250hr be stretch over 8K hours? FU
Lol at 5-7bb/hr being "average."

Most 2p2ers are not winning players (after rake) imo.

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Old 07-06-2017, 09:20 AM   #19242
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Avaritia - 250 is my longest...I have had multiple b/e stretches in the 200 range

I also agree with your sentiments. Winning 10 bb/hr is not something you roll into the casino and do. I have and extensive online experience with a massive database. This crutch really helped me to understand the importance of position and other critical factors that most live only players miss (thus causing some pretty big leaks in their games).

As I have said countless times self awareness, ego, control, etc are also something that are very important. I have a huge edge on these. Not b/c I'm totally ossum or anything. But prior to poker I played a SHT load of high stakes advantage BJ. That game is in fact robotic. Yes I would get irritated when I lose but my decisions were binary. My decision tree was a rote laid out map. I am convince this has really enabled me to be able to not tilt (or if I feel it coming on I can see it and leave)

Lastly my gamboolin buddies are some of the smartest people I know. They are former high profile wall street lawyers, professors, computer programmers - that have great minds for this type of analysis.

All of these factors have led to a nice confluence of events for my "success" in llnlh

I put success in quotes b/c honestly who really gives a rats ass is some dude wins a whopping 50 bux per hour at a card game in a room full of miserable people.

I would much rather share the beauty of hanggliding with you guys and take you all for tandem rides

For those that dont know me I have been an avid outdoorsman my whole life and flying hanggliders is my passion. I have been a tandem instructor for years and recently got all of my certifications reinstated. I give rides at my pals place called wallaby ranch

www.wallaby.com check it out


Last edited by squid face; 07-06-2017 at 09:26 AM.
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Old 07-06-2017, 09:46 AM   #19243
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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
Lol at 5-7bb/hr being "average."

Most 2p2ers are not winning players (after rake) imo.

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+1
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Old 07-06-2017, 09:47 AM   #19244
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Whats that cost Squid? I may come see you next time I get up to Orlando area.
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Old 07-06-2017, 09:52 AM   #19245
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discovery flights are 175$

Includes an amazing breakfast after. If you dont want to fly thats totally cool. At least stop by and have coffee and a free breakfast...and see what hanggliding is all about!!
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Old 07-06-2017, 11:34 AM   #19246
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by sw_emigre View Post
Some of my conclusions most of you already know, but sometimes we need to go through it and see it ourselves before we accept the conventional wisdom.
What were your conclusions?

I'm still not convinced such a small sample size tells us much, unless we really start grouping hands/positions together. At the 2000 mark, I thought to myself "damn, I wish I had been tracking all my hands by position, I would have an stone cold proof database of profitable vs unprofitable hands by now". But then I worked backwards, and long story short, realized the profitability of playing 55 UTG would have boiled down to how I did when I flopped a set ~4 times (really, I'm going to conclude anything from what happened on 4 hands?!?!).

Gnotconvincedittellsusallthatmuchotherthanperhapst heobviousG
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Old 07-06-2017, 11:44 AM   #19247
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
I have a massive sample of 2/5 hours. Sadly my computer was stolen. However, Being old skewl I still have written documents but they are in storage. I will eventually retrieve them and put them into my phone. Here is my results from my last 2500 hours of 2/5

profit 135,453
$/hr 54.14
duration 2501 hrs
cashed 291/445

the graph is pretty much 45 degrees

the other 8k+ hrs or so with post bf results are the same
Awesome, and thanks for posting Squiddy. As far as I can recall (I wish there was an easier way of parsing information in this thread), these are likely the biggest numbers over the largest sample size we've seen posted so far in this thread (10.8 bb/hr over 2501 hours).

What would you guess your average max BI was? Was it mostly 100bb max BI? Or do you typically / often sit in a "bigger" game?

What would you guess your average rake / BBJ drop was?

Again, the reason I mainly ask is because I still think people are lumping all live low stakes games into one and concluding 10bb/hr is still possible in all, but I simply don't believe comparing 1/2 vs 1/3 vs 2/5 is fair (even if all 100bb max BI) given the rake is so much more crushing at the lower end.

GthanksforpostingG
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Old 07-06-2017, 12:33 PM   #19248
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks Squid. Convinces me these long-term 15-20BBs per hour stories I'm told by players is total bullshytt.
I can also not feel so bad about myself not being able to hit that 10BBs per hr over 1000 hours.
I almost did......once........if you filtered my session logger for 1k hrs from date I won 1.2k in 5 hrs @ 1/2NL when a Whale was at the table.
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Old 07-06-2017, 01:45 PM   #19249
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

10bb/hour at 2-5 and lower is definitely attainable. At higher stakes like 5-T, id say 7-8bbs would be pushing the upper limit, and at 10-25, 5-6bbs/hour would be crushing. Of course this depends on your player pool, your skill level, and many other factors.

To be blunt, I think ive run pretty good in my poker career, with almost 5000 hours logged now across all games. I honestly expect my winrate to go down in the future, as variance always finds a way, villians get tougher, etc. Therefore, I highly doubt my numbers are long term sustainable, so take my winrates with a grain of salt:

2-5
1460 hours @ $52/hr

5-T
1260 hours @ $101/hr

10-25
600 hours @ $173/hr

The rest of my hours are a hodgepodge of 1-2, 1-3, 2-4, home games, etc.
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Old 07-06-2017, 02:20 PM   #19250
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have a couple of 500 hours stretches that are 9-10BB/hr. Not many though. On of my poker friends puts up a good $20/hr at $1/2 pretty consistently, but he's better than I am and game selects like a mofo.

So the 10BB/hr level is definitely attainable with sufficient effort. But it's not something you're going to just fall into as a generic "good player".
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