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Old 06-27-2017, 06:38 PM   #19126
niceguy22
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

All that runs in my room is 1/2, so heres my mid year results so far for 2017.

Hours: 345
Profit: $8710
Profit/hr: $25.25

The last 140 hrs have been break even but I might be running good overall. Too lazy to post a graph.

Overall sample is 630 hrs @ $18.5/hr, but been feeling good about some progress lately, so I'm hoping my 2017 results are indicative of that.
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Old 06-27-2017, 08:26 PM   #19127
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Looking to start making the drive to the casino often and actually start playing live. Ibe been around poker a while but feel like beating 1/2 at a casino on a Friday is a lot different to poker online which is where I've mostly played here and there over the years. Would any regs give advice on maybe some books aimed at this specifically, or maybe a video series or youtuber or podcast or whatever for just general strategy aimed at low stakes lI've NL? I think the last time I read a poker book it was by Phil Gordon if that gives you some idea.
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Old 06-27-2017, 08:38 PM   #19128
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Not sure why you posted that in the Winrate thread, but check out the stickies ITF. There are several good threads on online-to-live transfer.
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Old 06-27-2017, 09:32 PM   #19129
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

With all due respect I am familiar with the stickied threads, and many are 5+ years old, some posted before I joined in 2012. Not saying they don't translate but I'm just looking for material I haven't already read. I looked at some other threads and they appeared pretty dead and thought this was a good place as it is actually frequented by regulars that play live and manage bankrolls.

Would love your input on other resources or publications I should look into Garick that have helped your live game.
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Old 06-27-2017, 09:54 PM   #19130
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Please try the Chat thread and/or the Books and Publications forum. This thread is for Bankroll Winrate and Finance discussion only.

I will say, though, that low-stakes live really hasn't changed much since 2012. I wouldn't worry much about resources being "outdated" at 2/5NL or lower unless they are pre-poker boom.
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Old 06-28-2017, 07:40 AM   #19131
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Well, I'd say you're better off throwing out a lot of the advice in LLSNL that something is standard/good because that's just how it is in low stakes, without any evidence/math or even an argument why.

It's changed in the sense that blindly following a list of idioms was enough to be a winner in 2012 but isn't in 2017 and worse, will ensure you are totally unable to learn and improve.
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Old 06-29-2017, 12:55 AM   #19132
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by niceguy22 View Post
All that runs in my room is 1/2, so heres my mid year results so far for 2017.

Hours: 345
Profit: $8710
Profit/hr: $25.25

The last 140 hrs have been break even but I might be running good overall. Too lazy to post a graph.

Overall sample is 630 hrs @ $18.5/hr, but been feeling good about some progress lately, so I'm hoping my 2017 results are indicative of that.
So... if you're playing 30 hands an hour...

($25.25/30)*100=$84 per 100 hands

Meaning at 1/2 you are earning 42bb/100hands.

That's a ridiculous winrate. Well done.
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Old 06-29-2017, 02:00 AM   #19133
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's only ridiculous because you are comparing it to games that aren't comparable. Also, it's a minuscule sample size.
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Old 06-29-2017, 05:07 AM   #19134
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
Can you provide the hour samples for each stake? Just curious.

Have you had a losing month since pro?
I would have to consult Excel but I think it was roughly 500 hours @ 1/2, 100 hours @ 1/3, 350 hours @ 2/5 and 150 hours @ 5/10.

I had a horrible first month as a pro (March '16) ending up -12k after the doom switch was activated and going on a -15k swing. I've had one other losing month (November '16) while going through another nasty downswing in October/November.

My mentality has certainly done a complete 180' though from playing recreationally vs. professionally. It's hard/impossible to explain in my opinion - it's just one of those things one has to experience them self if they decides to go pro. There is a bit of a learning curve but I've settled nicely into the grinder mentality. No intention of doing this all that much longer but at least I know I can always do it if need be.
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Old 06-29-2017, 11:20 AM   #19135
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
My mentality has certainly done a complete 180' though from playing recreationally vs. professionally. It's hard/impossible to explain in my opinion - it's just one of those things one has to experience them self if they decides to go pro.
SOOOOO much this. Cant be explained, as much as i try.
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Old 06-29-2017, 12:44 PM   #19136
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Not sure if this is exactly the right spot to post this but I think it's right...

Background: I've been playing 1/2 casino poker for about 7 years-- never full time and probably averaging one 5 hour session a week, with some months long breaks and some periods where I've been able to play 3 nights a week. I'm a winning player at what I estimate is about $15/hr. Because I'm not playing for a living, when my bankroll has shot up above 20 buy-ins, I've used it for personal expenditures.

Based on what I see in others' experiences, I am becoming convinced that I am sacrificing +EV for lower variance. While I've won on average $15/hr, I would estimate that I win ~85% of my sessions, but have won > 2.5 buy-ins in a session just 2-3 times over those 7 years, which seems extremely low to me. I definitely acknolwedge that I have "accountant's syndrome" in that after I get up a certain amount, I tend to play tighter and am more apt to leave, but I also think my style of play may be lower variance at a cost of a lower win rate.

Question: I've identified that light 3! is currently completely absent from my game. Given my background and description, what other leaks might you expect a player like me has?

Also,with my bankroll solid, I want to start adding 3! light to my game and based on this forum it seems the only consensus recommendations are 3! light with A-rag suited from late position or the blinds against Vs who have big enough stacks and have a fold button (also preferably with dead money to gain in the pot). Any other situations/cards where folks are finding 3! profitable, even if higher variance?
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Old 06-29-2017, 01:16 PM   #19137
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913 View Post
Not sure if this is exactly the right spot to post this but I think it's right...



Background: I've been playing 1/2 casino poker for about 7 years-- never full time and probably averaging one 5 hour session a week, with some months long breaks and some periods where I've been able to play 3 nights a week. I'm a winning player at what I estimate is about $15/hr. Because I'm not playing for a living, when my bankroll has shot up above 20 buy-ins, I've used it for personal expenditures.



Based on what I see in others' experiences, I am becoming convinced that I am sacrificing +EV for lower variance. While I've won on average $15/hr, I would estimate that I win ~85% of my sessions, but have won > 2.5 buy-ins in a session just 2-3 times over those 7 years, which seems extremely low to me. I definitely acknolwedge that I have "accountant's syndrome" in that after I get up a certain amount, I tend to play tighter and am more apt to leave, but I also think my style of play may be lower variance at a cost of a lower win rate.



Question: I've identified that light 3! is currently completely absent from my game. Given my background and description, what other leaks might you expect a player like me has?



Also,with my bankroll solid, I want to start adding 3! light to my game and based on this forum it seems the only consensus recommendations are 3! light with A-rag suited from late position or the blinds against Vs who have big enough stacks and have a fold button (also preferably with dead money to gain in the pot). Any other situations/cards where folks are finding 3! profitable, even if higher variance?


don't do any of this at 1/2 imo
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Old 06-29-2017, 01:24 PM   #19138
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How are you *estimating* that you're winning $15/hr? Do you have any records? How many hours are we talking about here? I get about 500hrs/year, but I play a couple of times a week.

There's nothing wrong with getting up when you've mentally locked up a win. Sure, it's not the *best* strategy, but it's better to just get up, talk a walk and/or go home rather than keep playing sub-optimally. Another strategy is to rack up, talk a walk, go to dinner, and sit back down an hour later with a single BI.


In most live games, you don't need a light 3! range. But that's a discussion for a strategy thread. (An interesting one ... make a new thread.)
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Old 06-29-2017, 01:31 PM   #19139
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913 View Post

I'm a winning player at what I estimate is about $15/hr.

While I've won on average $15/hr, I would estimate that I win ~85% of my sessions
My first recommendation is to download a tracking app to your phone and use it religiously. It is rare that a person is self aware enough to accurately estimate that numbers you've quoted over a 7 year time frame.

With that said, 7.5 BB per hour is respectable.

Won't get much into strategy discussion in this thread. Generally speaking, most of your profit at live low stakes comes from playing boring, straight forward value bet/fold. Advanced thinking is over thinking at 1/2.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk
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Old 06-29-2017, 01:34 PM   #19140
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Alright excel gurus itt:

Im making a live hand history tracker. Yes its dumb / waste of time / meaningless sample.

My question is, looking at how a hand history is converted from pokerstars for example, how would you go about creating a matrix in excel that does something similar.

My normal shorthand looks something like this:

utgL, co $25,btn $75,utgf, coC. Flop K76ssd. CO x, BTN $80, f

Now, i am adapting it into a pre filled template.

If im tracking only my hands, how would you set this up in excel. So that each hand history reads formulaically / consistently

It might be easier if i snippet what i have so far but i dont want to corrupt ideas yet
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Old 06-29-2017, 01:36 PM   #19141
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
How are you *estimating* that you're winning $15/hr?
Yeah, I'm having trouble getting past this as well. Especially when he then goes on to state he's probably winning 85% of his sessions (orly?); I mean, at this point I can only take his winrate estimate with a grain of salt.

I don't think there's anything wrong with playing a deepstack far differently than you would a shortstack, and mostly when you've "locked up a win" that's what you're sitting on. Does playing a lower variance / no-light-3betting style / non-imaginative deepstack game hinder your winrate? Possibly. I wouldn't beat yourself up about it. Playing to your strengths and avoiding your weaknesses is not a bad way to go about things, and from you impressive (yet unreliable) results it sounds like you're doing fine.

GgoodluckG
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Old 06-29-2017, 01:56 PM   #19142
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Avaritia ... how are you going to be recording these things at the table? In a text file? Google spreadsheet on your phone? (Do they have Excel for phones?).
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Old 06-29-2017, 02:15 PM   #19143
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have a template on my phone.

It looks like this:

1
UTG
UTG2
UTG3
UTG4
HJ
CO
BTN
Sb
Bb

2
UTG
UTG2
UTG3
UTG4
HJ
CO
BTN
Sb
Bb

And goes to 100. I plan on logging 100 hands a session.

To carry out a hand history:

2
UTG ($600) $20/c
UTG2 f
UTG3 f
UTG4 ($1000) c/f
HJ f
CO f
BTN (H$900) $80
Sb f
Bb f

Flop: K67ssd UTG x, BTN $90, UTG f

So here H= hero c = call x = check f = fold. $amount = an open or a raise. So the $20/c means open $20 and called the btn raise.

This looks like alot but is surprisingly simple with the template. I need it like this bc i need an easy way of seeing stack sizes.

As for uploading to excel, it will be manual. I do nothing at work. The question is what will the matrix look like to capture that hand history. (Cant just be text. I want to KNOW what btns cbet % is after 1000 hands) so it needs to be a column or row.)
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Old 06-29-2017, 02:22 PM   #19144
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If you convert your hand history at exactly the same format as a pokerstars hand history file, you would then probably be able to import it to pokertracker.
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Old 06-29-2017, 02:23 PM   #19145
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
How are you *estimating* that you're winning $15/hr? Do you have any records? How many hours are we talking about here? I get about 500hrs/year, but I play a couple of times a week.
That's fair. I have a pretty tight grip on the total amount won since I've kept it in my BR or bought memorable items. The hours estimation is more rough. Though the variance is high, I think I play about once a week for a ~5 hour session so that's ~250 hours/year or 1750 hours over 7 years
...
But I wasn't really looking to debate my results. I was more just wanting, "If you accept these results as true, what types of leaks would you expect this player is making." Basically what opportunities would you guess there are for me given that I'm winning the vast majority of my sessions but have an underwhelming win rate? 3! light, which I understand to be a good but high variance tactic is one thing that has come to my mind, but I was curious if there are other things you would expect a player like me to be (not) doing.
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Old 06-29-2017, 02:27 PM   #19146
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

On your list of problems at 1/2, your light 3 bet percentage should be pretty low. Other than that, this isn't the place for this discussion and it's pretty impossible to to discuss without knowing your style of play/having established leaks etc.
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Old 06-29-2017, 02:36 PM   #19147
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Hmm, I'll think about the template. I usually do a lot of this kind of thing in Matlab personally. There should be a way to convert that data into a delimited file that Excel will read easily.
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Old 06-29-2017, 02:39 PM   #19148
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913 View Post
Also,with my bankroll solid, I want to start adding 3! light to my game and based on this forum it seems the only consensus recommendations are 3! light with A-rag suited from late position or the blinds against Vs who have big enough stacks and have a fold button (also preferably with dead money to gain in the pot). Any other situations/cards where folks are finding 3! profitable, even if higher variance?
I 3bet light with any 2 cards as long as it is +EV to do so. I certainly would not wait until I have a blocker or position to do so. This will tend to work out better in weekday games consisting of more level 2 thinkers than weekend games filled with level 1 thinkers that will put 2/3rds of their stack in the middle with T9 because it's sooooted.

BTW, wrong thread for this.
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Old 06-29-2017, 02:47 PM   #19149
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ava, I'm sure you could get a programmer to create a converter program for you so you don't have to convert manually.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
If you convert your hand history at exactly the same format as a pokerstars hand history file, you would then probably be able to import it to pokertracker.
Or better yet, have the programmer create the converter program so that it does this. Maybe not Pokerstars though since that's also used for Ignition hands. Convert to Ipoker or PartyPoker ect. instead.
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Old 06-29-2017, 02:55 PM   #19150
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My first couple thoughts on this... you could easily write a python script to take in a text file generated on your phone to build a CSV file that would be automatically imported by Excel.

The Excel/CSV result would be something like each hand is comprised of multiple rows as actions and columns are Player's hands (and their actions) and pots, etc...

Column headers:
Hand unique ID
Street
Action count
Community Cards
Pot (bb)
PX's Name
PX's Position
PX's hand
PX's Stack remaining
PX's action
PX's size (bb)
Pot (bb)

So a simple example of the resultant CSV, HU with Hero as SB:

458,Preflop,1,,1.5,Hero,SB,QsQc,99.5,Bet,3,4
458,Preflop,2,,4,Fish1,BB,??,99,Raise,15,19
458,Preflop,3,,19,Hero,SB,QsQc,97,Call,15,34
458,Flop,4,AsKsJs,34,Hero,SB,QsQc,85,Puke-Check,0,34
458,Flop,5,AsKsJs,34,Fish1,BB,??,85,Bet,30,64
458,Flop,6,AsKsJs,64,Hero,SB,QsQc,Fold,0,64

The key here is that each line of the CSV file is only one action with pointers to the previous and next action.

If your shorthand is regular in form, then you could easily have a python script that would build the CSV file for you. And then you can have a macro in Excel read the CSV file and dump it into a proper .xlsx file which then can do math and analysis.

Or, you could have a different form of file for the xlsx file and the CSV file would just be the raw data.
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