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Old 06-20-2017, 05:38 PM   #19076
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
Wish there was an auto top off button for live poker 😎
+1, lol

A couple of sessions ago there's a flop bet and I raise in seat 10. A player I've never seen before in seat 1 (so we're obstructed by the dealer) asks "how much you have behind?". I move my hands and show my remaining stack. He then asks "and what do you have in your pocket?". Um, huh? Lol, he had seen me reaching into my pockets after every hand and was assuming I was going south, when in fact I was topping up. Awkward conversation follows, although he eventually apologizes for his accusations.

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Old 06-20-2017, 06:25 PM   #19077
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Wish there was an auto top off button for live poker Winrates, bankrolls, and finances


Call the chip runner every time you need a $25 chip to top off. Ask him to place chip on your stack
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Old 06-20-2017, 06:31 PM   #19078
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Passed 100 hours for the year with my last session. ~2bb/hour wr. Obv running above expectation. #crushing #quittingjobtoplaypokerfulltime

On pace to hit my goal of 200 hr this year, so that's a plus
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Old 06-20-2017, 08:07 PM   #19079
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

All this talk about 5bb/hr being good is depressing. Obviously poker is tougher now than pre Black Friday but has anyone considered the possibility that poker might be getting softer?

Think about all the grinders going broke or realizing that if they're smart enough to grind $20/hr at 1/2 or $35/hr at 2/5 they can get an actual career with way less variance, pays more and doesn't come with social isolation? Now think about guys like Andrew Neeme and streamers promoting poker.



I'm at $26/hr with about just under 280 hours mixing 1/2 and 1/3. Obviously sample size is nothing and I'm probably running above EV. But I don't think I've gotten absurdly lucky. I think 10bb/hr is perfectly achievable with some work at 1/2 and 1/3. 2/5 not so sure that's why I was asking you guys. I'm curious what you guys think the drop in bb/hr will be moving up.
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Old 06-20-2017, 08:16 PM   #19080
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Nobody can give you a 100% correct answer as to how your win rate in BB/hr will drop as you go from 1/2 to 2/5. Based on my experience I would say it will get cut in half and possibly more.

If you can sustain 13 BB/hr at 1/2 over 1000 hours, I would set my sights on 6 BB/hr at 2/5 as an estimate and go from there.
A 10BB/h winner at 1/2 might be around 4-5BB/hr winner at 2/5
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Old 06-20-2017, 08:40 PM   #19081
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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
All this talk about 5bb/hr being good is depressing. Obviously poker is tougher now than pre Black Friday but has anyone considered the possibility that poker might be getting softer?

Think about all the grinders going broke or realizing that if they're smart enough to grind $20/hr at 1/2 or $35/hr at 2/5 they can get an actual career with way less variance, pays more and doesn't come with social isolation? Now think about guys like Andrew Neeme and streamers promoting poker.


I'm at $26/hr with about just under 280 hours mixing 1/2 and 1/3. Obviously sample size is nothing and I'm probably running above EV. But I don't think I've gotten absurdly lucky. I think 10bb/hr is perfectly achievable with some work at 1/2 and 1/3.
I play poker for an income generating hobby. Fortunate to have a career with benefits and tons of vacation that pays well. Would need to crush 5/10 to come close to my day job.

Couldn't imagine having to grind out 50 years of a life at live low stakes. Would suck the soul out of me.

As a low stress supplement to very early retirement, it could work for me.

My BB per hour between 1/2, 1/3 and 2/5 is about the same across 2,300 hours I've tracked, but I have to work for it at 2/5.

I'm perfectly happy making an easy 8bb at 1/2 & 1/3. Agree that higher is well within reach for those willing to work. About 70% of the time I'm playing very little attention to the table when not involved in a hand, mostly by binge watching shows on my phone. Usually have my phone propped up against my stack with ear buds in. Easily this costs me 2-5 BBs per hour, but honestly I just don't care.



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Old 06-20-2017, 08:50 PM   #19082
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My bb/hour actually went up from ~1k hours of 1/2 compared to ~1.3k hours of 2/5

This is completely relative though. It's a combination of the fact I got significantly better throughout that time period, variance, the game played deeper, etc.

The thing with live low stakes is how valuable it is to be the best or 2nd best player at the table, compared to 4th or 5th best. So in 1/2 you can often run over basically any table because very few 1/2 pro's exist, and those that do play fairly standard and aren't going to exploit you, allowing you do get away with a lot of things that you can't in bigger games. Obviously there aren't many crushers at 2/5 either, but that's when you're first going to start to realize you have to think a bit deeper about all your lines/their lines. You start to think to yourself "wait a second... what the **** am I repping?"

So, for sure expect a bb/hour drop, but as long as you're making close to the same $/hr without massively increasing variance I'd be content with it, as you're making similar amounts while improving your play and becoming more comfortable with the larger sums of money.
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Old 06-20-2017, 10:19 PM   #19083
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Nobody can give you a 100% correct answer as to how your win rate in BB/hr will drop as you go from 1/2 to 2/5. Based on my experience I would say it will get cut in half and possibly more.

If you can sustain 13 BB/hr at 1/2 over 1000 hours, I would set my sights on 6 BB/hr at 2/5 as an estimate and go from there.
A 10BB/h winner at 1/2 might be around 4-5BB/hr winner at 2/5
I think that's a load of bs tbh. The games aren't that different. If you can crush one you can crush the other. Small difference, sure, because the level of play is marginally different, but unless the cap/rake structure drastically changed, I don't think your winrate will anywhere near halve.
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Old 06-20-2017, 10:50 PM   #19084
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
I'm at $26/hr with about just under 280 hours mixing 1/2 and 1/3. Obviously sample size is nothing and I'm probably running above EV. But I don't think I've gotten absurdly lucky. I think 10bb/hr is perfectly achievable with some work at 1/2 and 1/3. 2/5 not so sure that's why I was asking you guys. I'm curious what you guys think the drop in bb/hr will be moving up.
280 hours is nothing. NOTHING.

To get a real idea of the long run, go back to 2010 in this thread.
Look at all the "regs" that posted regularly.
Look at the update rate of pg&cs.

They usually go something like this:

-----------------------------

1/01/16
"Sup guys my names Ava I'm a cool hip 28 year old that grinds tinder and grinds poker here's my graph showing how great I am"

(Translation)
I'm actually 32 and live with my mom and have a small ****. I've run hotter than the sun at poker and think I am good.

1/05/16
Hey guys checking in I got 3 tinder hookups last night so pretty good but could be better on the poker front I've been slacking...need to up that volume!"

(Translation)
My mom set me up with her friend's unfortunate looking daughter with 2 kids. I haven't played much poker because it is a life draining game when attempting to play full time but I'm not ready to admit that yet.

1/05/16 - 1/31/16

*No updates for a month*

(Translation)
Running bad at poker and who would ever post that?

2/05/16

"Sup guys sorry I havent updated I've been really busy on the poker front I've been running really well here's a few sample hands showing how deep I think about poker"

(Translation)
I actually went on a small heater and now have the confidence to post an update since it's positive news. Most of these hands are huge spew but I've got a RIO subscription so I can regurgitate from those videos to make it sound like I'm thinking when in actuality I'm clicking buttons.

3/02/16

"Sup guys I got a sick job offer in R&D finance so the pro poker life will have to sit on the back burner for now thanks for sticking along for the ride!"

(Translation)
My mom's friend's daughter got me hired as a cashier at Best Buy and that actually produces income whereas my live poker career does not. Poker ****ing sucks and I realize that now but my ego won't let me share the truth with others even though they could benefit from me sharing my failure openly.

3/03/16 - present

*no further updates*


--------------------------------

The long run is really long bud, and there have been thousands before you that posted the exact same thoughts that have sworn off poker since.

My first 1500 hours I was clipping 60/hr at 2/5. My last 500 hours I have made approximately $3.50.

What keeps me going is what zippy posted above. This is passive income from a hobby and I honestly don't care if I'm at 5bb/hr or 12bb/hr bc unless I book 10K hours and at that point I'd find my win rate slightly intriguing but at the same time I'd just keep grinding bc that all this is. A grind.

Also I will never hit 10k hours bc I would have slit my wrists long before that milestone.
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Old 06-20-2017, 11:39 PM   #19085
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I think that's a load of bs tbh. The games aren't that different. If you can crush one you can crush the other. Small difference, sure, because the level of play is marginally different, but unless the cap/rake structure drastically changed, I don't think your winrate will anywhere near halve.
The level of play from 1/2 to 2/5 in my room is massively different. So massive it boggles my mind. YMMV.
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Old 06-21-2017, 12:29 AM   #19086
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The level of play from 1/2 to 2/5 in my room is massively different. So massive it boggles my mind. YMMV.
what room do you play in?
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Old 06-21-2017, 01:13 AM   #19087
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
280 hours is nothing. NOTHING.

To get a real idea of the long run, go back to 2010 in this thread.
Look at all the "regs" that posted regularly.
Look at the update rate of pg&cs.

They usually go something like

...

The long run is really long bud, and there have been thousands before you that posted the exact same thoughts that have sworn off poker since.

My first 1500 hours I was clipping 60/hr at 2/5. My last 500 hours I have made approximately $3.50.

What keeps me going is what zippy posted above. This is passive income from a hobby and I honestly don't care if I'm at 5bb/hr or 12bb/hr bc unless I book 10K hours and at that point I'd find my win rate slightly intriguing but at the same time I'd just keep grinding bc that all this is. A grind.

Also I will never hit 10k hours bc I would have slit my wrists long before that milestone.
This is great +1

I kinda refrained from starting a PG&C for this reason. Perhaps subconsciously I knew I was running good and it was unsustainable.

Went "pro" March 2016, doom switch hit, got a lesson in humility and the reality of poker math and variance etc. Been grinding out productive months since then but nowhere near my previous win rates (36/hr @ 1/2, 45/hr @ 1/3, 68/hr @ 2/5, 125/hr @ 5/10).

I never considered it a "career" change I just knew I wanted to leave my job and poker filled the time. That time is hopefully winding down as I close out a 6 month interview process and begin a new career in commercial real estate (and get back to playing bigger and for fun). Though technically I won't make a lick my first 6-12 months cuz CRE is an all-commission business with ~9 month sales cycles so I guess poker will still be my primary income for another year (and some stock market trading).
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Old 06-21-2017, 08:18 AM   #19088
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what room do you play in?
The Isle at Pompano Park
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Old 06-21-2017, 08:55 AM   #19089
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
The level of play from 1/2 to 2/5 in my room is massively different. So massive it boggles my mind. YMMV.


i'm pretty sure you can play that 1/2 blind and win decently with enough aggression
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Old 06-21-2017, 09:30 AM   #19090
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i'm pretty sure you can play that 1/2 blind and win decently with enough aggression
I wouldnt doubt it. Ive said before that IMO the 2/5 at the Isle are the toughest 2/5 games Ive ever played in...and Ive played all over the country. The 1/2 is a joke. So you can imagine the difference between the two of them. If other rooms' 2/5 games arent as tough as mine, then obviously there wont be as much of skill difference than what I see between 1/2 and 2/5.
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Old 06-21-2017, 10:20 AM   #19091
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This is great +1

Went "pro" March 2016, doom switch hit, got a lesson in humility and the reality of poker math and variance etc. Been grinding out productive months since then but nowhere near my previous win rates (36/hr @ 1/2, 45/hr @ 1/3, 68/hr @ 2/5, 125/hr @ 5/10).

.
Can you provide the hour samples for each stake? Just curious.

Have you had a losing month since pro?
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Old 06-21-2017, 11:11 AM   #19092
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I think your WR on the next level depends on your experience and play. If you only have played 300-500-1000 hours of 1/2 and your major talent is just to play snug, set mine and value bet, then you are going to need to iron some things at 2/5 and your WR isn't going to be as good.

If OTOH, you have experience from online, then it's mostly a question of bankroll and not skill, in which case, you shouldn't expect a major difference.

Regardless, one thing I think happens with everyone, no matter how good they are is that they need around 300-400 hours in order to get a good sense of the pool's tendencies and ranges. Like in the beginning, you re going to be very conscious and uncertain about certain spots. Only with experience and a good deal of play, you are going to have a more natural feel about those spots.
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Old 06-21-2017, 12:00 PM   #19093
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280 hours is nothing. NOTHING.
+1, /question

OP, see my recent posts, but my last 1450 hours I've run at < 50% of my first 2000 hours. In the same room, at the same 1/3 NL game ("same" is very questionable tho). 280 hours? I would go so far as to say the results over 280 are completely meaningless.

Also, as with all questions regarding stakes, it all depends. Maybe you play in a room where there are a bunch of tables at each stake, and in that case, there might very well be quite a difference in stakes. My room runs 1/3 NL. That's it. That's the only game/stake that runs. So noob-first-timer-sitting-at-a-poker-table is going to be sitting beside the guy who is attempting to do this as his job (I'd guess there are upwards of 2 guys per table attempting to do this as their living, not including retired guys attempting to pad their income). And it also follows up with what someone else said recently in this thread, in that you can't just state the stakes and magically come up with a WR; it totally depends on the conditions. It depends. One thing you can take to the bank though: basing any predictions/conclusions based on 280 hours is pointless.

GgoodluckG
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Old 06-21-2017, 12:01 PM   #19094
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Damn, my PokerJournal just woke up with a "Fatal Database Error", hurray. Good thing I'm still tracking all my results in Excel. Think I recently did a backup of PokerJournal so hopefully something I can import into another app.

I don't think (???) PokerJournal is being updated anymore. Anyone have recommendations for a decent cheap app?

Gcluelessappnoob,mightjustcontinuewithExcelG
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Old 06-21-2017, 01:12 PM   #19095
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Excel all the way gg

FWIW I come off pretty negative in my last post and to be clear the pg&c forum is my 2nd favorite forum. I have tons of respect for the few that continuously update and share their journey with us and I know it's got to be a LOT of work to keep up a blog like that. (Johnnybuzz I have the same thoughts as you... I'd like one but don't know that Id keep up plus fear of doomswitch)

That said, there's no better indicator of live poker win rates than looking at the failure rate of pg&cs.
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Old 06-21-2017, 01:20 PM   #19096
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Excel all the way gg
I'm so noobish at Excel and don't have the energy to do anything other than computing the winrate. Kinda liked the PokerJournal app to be able to filter hour / year stretches easily and have the giraffes.

Ha, also just realized I probably have notes on like 300-400 players in it. Would be super annoying to lose all that.

GsighG
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Old 06-21-2017, 01:52 PM   #19097
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
I'm at $26/hr with about just under 280 hours mixing 1/2 and 1/3. Obviously sample size is nothing and I'm probably running above EV. But I don't think I've gotten absurdly lucky. I think 10bb/hr is perfectly achievable with some work at 1/2 and 1/3. 2/5 not so sure that's why I was asking you guys. I'm curious what you guys think the drop in bb/hr will be moving up.
Depends on where you play. In the room where I used to live it was easier to have a higher bb/hr at 2/5 than it was at 1/2 imo simply because all the action players played 2/5 and the 1/2 game was mostly filled with nits, and most of the full time pros in the city played mostly private games and PLO. Where I live now 1/3 is insanely soft and the 2/5 lineup is almost always filled with grinders and is barely worth playing if there's not 1-2 mega fish.
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Old 06-21-2017, 02:46 PM   #19098
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Excel all the way gg

FWIW I come off pretty negative in my last post and to be clear the pg&c forum is my 2nd favorite forum. I have tons of respect for the few that continuously update and share their journey with us and I know it's got to be a LOT of work to keep up a blog like that. (Johnnybuzz I have the same thoughts as you... I'd like one but don't know that Id keep up plus fear of doomswitch)

That said, there's no better indicator of live poker win rates than looking at the failure rate of pg&cs.
What's pg&c?
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Old 06-21-2017, 02:49 PM   #19099
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What's pg&c?
Threads in Poker Goals & Challenges.

GcluelessabbrevnoobG
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Old 06-21-2017, 02:50 PM   #19100
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The Poker, Goals, and Challenges subforum.
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