While I'd agree it's certainly got some noise in it, it is slightly interesting that all weekend performance is poor and it's a ~30k hand sample. Similarly the other 30k hand sample on weekdays is noticeably better.

Are your session lengths longer on the weekend?

And that's all 1 stake?

600 hours can be variance. Lose 3 80/20 300bb pots and you swing your results $1800 or $3/hr. Or you can play your balls off to build a nice stack and lose it to a 2 out suckout or overset. Add in a little more noise on more marginal spots and your winnings are gone. *Then* you add some tilt and other mistakes stemming from having your soul crushed a few times and you end up down over that whole period.

I don't have *any* confidence in a 100 hour sample, so a 259 hour sample on Sundays is kind of suspect too.


So look at the difference between Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday. Those days should be pretty comparable in most rooms, and they have about the same sample size. But there's a good $15/hr spread in WR. If that's not variance over ~400 hours ... what is it? If his "true" WR is on the order of $18/hr (a respectable 9bb/hr, consistent with Tues. Sat. Sun), the $33-36/hr days are about as far away from the mean as the -$3/hr day. I wouldn't jump to thinking that his true WR should be $30/hr.



But based on my eyeballs I can say that in most rooms that I've played in the clientele and game conditions *do* change significantly between a Friday and a Tuesday. Fridays are generally busier, looser, and have more drinkers/partiers (fish), this, in turn, attracts the sharks. (lulz). So while on a Tuesday afternoon you may see a table of nearly identical nit-reg old people, a Friday might have a nit-reg OMC, an asian spewtard, a drunk MAWG, a drug dealer gambling it up, and a wannabe pro or two. Different dynamic and adjustments required. Yes, in a daytime game you can open it up and run them over, while you need to tighten a bit and pick your spots in the crazier games (unless you are *really* good at exploiting deep stacks and aggression on thin edges).

Beyond that, there's also the temptation to put in longer sessions on a weekend. That may explain why there are more hours on Friday than any other day. That leads to fatigue and mental mistakes. Which IME tend to be hard to notice until it's too late and just *destroy* your WR. One mistake at the end of a long session when you're sitting deep can be crushing compared to a mistake for a single BI early.

Might just be noise.

Although what I do find interesting is that the day you've put in the most hours is the day that is most out-of-wack with your overall results; I would expect the opposite. For example, my M-F results are all over the place, but my Sat/Sun results (where I've put in most of my hours) are the most closest to my overall results (i.e. I'd expect as you put in more hours then the more chance your results head towards the expected, but your stats show the exact opposite).

Are your weekend games really that much wilder than a normal game? My game is reg invested every day, so it really makes no difference; i.e. I'm just as likely to encounter the best game ever on a Monday afternoon and the worst game ever on a Saturday night. But if they are much wilder, there might be something to your thought that you are playing way too loose in wild games (where my guess is you'd be best rocking it up), and of course it doesn't take that many wild bad beats in big pots to have a big affect on results.

But, it could all just be noise. I mean, lol individual sample sizes, amirite?

GcluelessdayofweeknoobG

My day-by-day 1/3 NL results (keep in mind my overall is $22.04/hr over 3437:50 hours, so notice how on the days I've played more hours the more the results head towards my overall average):

Mon: $14.53/hr over 373:55 hours
Tue: $30.20/hr over 310:20 hours
Wed: $10.76/hr over 216:15 hours
Thur: $31.66/hr over 293:30 hours
Fri: $23.59/hr over 334:40 hours
Sat: $20.53/hr over 712:15 hours
Sun: $22.43/hr over 1196:55 hours

Unlike others, I don't believe there is any difference in game conditions from day to day where I play; they can be great vs sucky at any time simply depending on who is playing.

Gcluelessday-to-daystatsnoobG

GG - funny that thursday is yer biggest winnar. Same for me AND several of my buddies. Thursday is magical IMHO

What's your winrate home game vs vegas game? Is the home game noticeably higher?

Obviously I suck on Mon/Wed but play my A game on Tue/Thur.

All my Mon-Thur are like a lol ~300 hours. They show I'm probably a winner in the game, but nothing more, imo.

ETA: Another thing that renders these stats even more meaningless is that they have been collected over 7-8 years, and obviously the game has changed. True story: My current winrate to-date this year would finish 8th on that list (yup, slightly worse than Wed, sigh, but again, lol sample size of 271 hours).

Gmeaninglessnoise,imoG

Well if it gives you some perspective my PLO stdev is > 300 bb/hr. (*game is always straddled)

So for some unfiltered (all games, including some PLO and other ****, mostly $1/2 NLHE), poorly formatted and un-thought about results:

Day/Winnings/Hours/Rate
Mon -$787.0 / 1150.9 / -$0.68/hr
Tue $2,430.5 / 335.9 / $7.24/hr
Wed -$211.0 / 260.4 / -$0.81/hr
Thu $4,396.0 / 430.1 / $10.22/hr
Fri $4,160.0 / 546.5 / $7.61/hr
Sat $11,352.0 / 1287.7 / $8.82/hr
Sun $9,274.0 / 969.9 / $9.56/hr

These are all based on the session *END* time, so if I left at 2am after playing all night on Sunday, that counts as "Monday" here. I'd have to go back and re-calculate the start times somehow from the session duration.

Overall $6.14/hr for 4981 hours.

I think most of the Monday hours are probably staying too long on Sunday, but don't know for sure. Maybe this says that weekends are better ... maybe not. :shrug:

Man Thursday really is the magic day

Better game leads to more showdowns leads to more variance leads to getting unstuck/getting rich leads to fatigue leads to playing worse leads to outlier result.

I think there are many reasons for the poor Friday results. Playing too long and being tired after a long work week is one. Drinking while playing is another. I don't always do it, but when I do it is on the weekend. Poor adjustments to crazier games is probably the biggest reason. Over the years rake has gone up and I still get in there and gamble with these guys and frankly I am just not good enough to mix it up like that. It has gotten so bad I actually passed up a chance to go play two weekend ago on a Friday just because of recent results.


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Imo you should get tighter and more aggressive pf in these wild games.

How much do you guys think your win rate drops from 1/2 to 1/3 to 2/5? I've played just under 150 hours of 1/2 and about 120 hours of 1/3 in the last six weeks in Vegas. Did not really notice much of a difference at all in difficulty level between 1/2 and 1/3. Maybe slightly fewer 60+ VPIP fish but no real difference. I'm assuming if you're 10bb/hr at 1/2 you're 9-10bb/hr at 1/3.

But how much do you guys think that win rate will drop if I move to 2/5? 6bb/hr? 7bb/hr? In the rooms I've played in here in Vegas 2/5 is never the lowest stake offered so it's probably gonna play way better and way more aggressive. If I'm 9 bb/hr at 1/3 (I'm probably not but I wish I am) then with the increased variance 2/5 probably won't be a good decision for anything less than 6-7 bb/hr. I'm assuming to move up effectively and have a high enough win rate at 2/5 to be less likely to experience soul crushing downswings I'd have to improve myself to be a 10bb/hr winner at my current level (not that it's measurable)?

Also 2/5 at Bellagio has to be significantly softer than 2/5 everywhere else in Vegas right? Cause the max buy in is only 100bb which is shallower than most of the 1/2 games. No way there's too many good grinders in that game.

2/5 at bellagio is garbage IME. Plays super tight. Even if there's no tough grinders, you can't beat the rake in live poker unless you can stack people without coolering them.

Bellagio 2/5 is easily beatable but the attainable winrate is much lower than most 2/5s across the country. The game tends to play quite small and is likely filled with a bunch of mediocre tight grinders that are staked. I'm talking about weekday games outside of the series. During the WSOP you can potentially find any type of game anywhere anytime.

My experience in $1/2 and $1/3 games is that they're basically equivalent in terms of $/hr. The better tables are the ones with deeper stacks, more alcohol, and players willing to throw money in. Both levels will have that and both levels will have rock gardens. The table selection is more important than the stake there.

I don't have enough $2/5 experience to really comment across the country.

In Live 1/3, I see most good players rack up single session wins of over $1000. However, over 110 hours of play and 20 sessions, I have never even won over $500 despite overall having a win rate of $15/hr over that time span. Is this a common occurrence or am I probably playing poorly?

"Is this a common occurrence or am I playing poorly?"

Is WHAT a common occurrence?

In general I would say that you are simply missing value in certain situations. If you want to improve this you just need to review the bet sizing decisions you're making, and that you're not checking too many streets that you could be missing value on. Maybe there are Preflop scenarios where you're missing as well. If you're still a solid winner I would be patient though, your consistency is valuable.


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sounds like you might just be playing a bit too tight. not that big a deal, but if you open up a bit you have more big winning sessions. also going to have bigger losses. embrace the variance.

Please discuss in the Winrates Bankroll and Finances thread. I'd move it myself, but I'm on my phone. [mod note: venice10 moved it]

Cliffs: Winrate is important, cash-out size isn't. Your winrate is good, but not great, which leads to suspicion that your betsizing and willingness to value bet thinly need work.

110 hours isn't much to draw conclusions from. Generally 10bb/hr winrate is considered crushing. So an "average" 5hr session for a crusher would result in running a 300 stack to 450.

At a 15/hr wr a on avg you would spin up 300 into 375 in 5 hrs. The rest is variance. Personally I play a higher variance style and it's not uncommon for me to cash out big. Sometimes it's big winnings, sometimes I'm in the game for multiple buy ins and sometimes a lose a couple buy ins. But as Garrick said wr or overall winnings is the long term yardstick for success not single session winnings.

As for whether you have big leaks you'd be better served to post some individual hand histories than try to infer anything from short term results.

Oh and fwiw a 5bb/hr winner long term is a well above average player.


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1k hours took about 3 years. Win rate between Vegas 300 hours and other games 700 hours is near the same, with Vegas just a touch higher.


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First and foremost you have a very small sample so it's essentially meaningless.

However I want to address the psychological part here.

In a poker room, you are bombarded with results oriented madness. Someone will ALWAYS be racking up 400bbs in a night. Someone will ALWAYS get there with their horrible spew. Someone will ALWAYS successfully spazz bluff in a terrible spot. Just a few weeks ago a whale playing BLIND in plo racked up $3K in a 1/2 game.

It's frustrating, but just keep grinding. Your $100-300 dollar wins add up huge over time.

I've had similar thoughts as you since I've started playing poker, and yet I'm only one of a few regulars that is still around. The guys who seemed to always be racking up stacks have burned out long ago. (And / or simply moved on, but I think it's mostly the former)

Case in point. Yesterday a guy raised preflop and got 3 calls.
He bet a JcJs4h flop and got shoved on. He called.

Villain shows KhJd. Fish says "I dont care about a J. I know what I need"

Turn 6h
River 8h

Fish slams his AhQh on the table and collects his pot. He went on to play like a fish and had a big stack. Anyone who didnt see the hands might think the guy was a great player since he had a big stack. You can bet he loses most of the time.