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Old 06-15-2017, 11:39 PM   #19026
YGOchamp
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Structures (like "2/5 NL $500 cap") do not come with a WR. Donators determine your winrate.
This. And it's why people are unable to comprehend why live and online WR's have such large discrepancies.

Muilti-way pots and lots of donators. Infinite more people willing to donate at a casino where they have the luxury of sharing some drinks and laughter
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Old 06-16-2017, 12:29 AM   #19027
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I have a very nasty loss rate on Fridays that I really can't account for. I also don't do as well as I think I should on Saturdays. My recent results by session are 4 wins and 16 losses on my last 20 Friday trips.

My guess is that I loosen up way too much in the crazier games. I also think that the crazier weekend games take longer to reach the "long run". Probably a combination of both. What do you guys think and do any of you have the same?
Absolutely the crazier the game the longer it is to get to "long run". But you've probably got a couple of other leaks causing you problems in looser games.

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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
This. And it's why people are unable to comprehend why live and online WR's have such large discrepancies.

Muilti-way pots and lots of donators. Infinite more people willing to donate at a casino where they have the luxury of sharing some drinks and laughter
Yup. This is why live games can be built around 1 or 2 donators.
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Old 06-16-2017, 12:31 AM   #19028
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Awesome results donkey. How long did it take you to get to 1k hrs?
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Old 06-16-2017, 12:35 AM   #19029
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I have a very nasty loss rate on Fridays that I really can't account for. I also don't do as well as I think I should on Saturdays. My recent results by session are 4 wins and 16 losses on my last 20 Friday trips.

My guess is that I loosen up way too much in the crazier games. I also think that the crazier weekend games take longer to reach the "long run". Probably a combination of both. What do you guys think and do any of you have the same?


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Yeah my weekend winrate is a lower than my other days too. It's prob a combination of more pots going multi way and gambling it up too much with the recs
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Old 06-16-2017, 04:59 AM   #19030
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Awesome results donkey. How long did it take you to get to 1k hrs?


If this is directed at me, I average around 320 hrs/yr as a rec player. So a little over 3 years. And results aren't that great. This is across all 1-2, 1-3, & 2-5 NLHE and some old data when I primarily played 10-20 LHE. If I filtered the data to only NLHE, my Friday numbers would be even worse!
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Old 06-16-2017, 06:19 AM   #19031
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Submerged View Post


I have a very nasty loss rate on Fridays that I really can't account for. I also don't do as well as I think I should on Saturdays. My recent results by session are 4 wins and 16 losses on my last 20 Friday trips.

My guess is that I loosen up way too much in the crazier games. I also think that the crazier weekend games take longer to reach the "long run". Probably a combination of both. What do you guys think and do any of you have the same?


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Weekends, especially Fridays probably have a lot more bad players (or maybe good players) and you're probably just outleveling yourself against them. Trying to make bluffs and moves they don't understand and thus won't work against them.
Or maybe there are more better players on Fridays who are just outplaying you, but I doubt that?
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Old 06-16-2017, 07:56 AM   #19032
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I never did well at 2/5 on the weekends. I recommend moving up to midstakes
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Old 06-16-2017, 09:19 AM   #19033
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Submerged View Post


I have a very nasty loss rate on Fridays that I really can't account for. I also don't do as well as I think I should on Saturdays. My recent results by session are 4 wins and 16 losses on my last 20 Friday trips.

My guess is that I loosen up way too much in the crazier games. I also think that the crazier weekend games take longer to reach the "long run". Probably a combination of both. What do you guys think and do any of you have the same?


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Noise. You take 7 15k hand samples, one is likely to be negative.
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Old 06-16-2017, 09:30 AM   #19034
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Yeodan View Post
Weekends, especially Fridays probably have a lot more bad players (or maybe good players) and you're probably just outleveling yourself against them. Trying to make bluffs and moves they don't understand and thus won't work against them.
Or maybe there are more better players on Fridays who are just outplaying you, but I doubt that?
The first and likeliest explanation for his results is variance.
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Old 06-16-2017, 10:06 AM   #19035
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Noise. You take 7 15k hand samples, one is likely to be negative.
I don't believe this for a minute.
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Old 06-16-2017, 10:14 AM   #19036
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Submerged View Post


I have a very nasty loss rate on Fridays that I really can't account for. I also don't do as well as I think I should on Saturdays. My recent results by session are 4 wins and 16 losses on my last 20 Friday trips.

My guess is that I loosen up way too much in the crazier games. I also think that the crazier weekend games take longer to reach the "long run". Probably a combination of both. What do you guys think and do any of you have the same?


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I dont agree at all that your problem on Fridays is variance. A winning player should almost never be losing over 600 hours. I'll go out on a limb and say flat out NEVER. Lots of people write off every downswing and every problem they have to variance. Its easier to blame your problems on something you cant control than to solve the problem.

Your win rate on Sat and Sunday is also lower than the rest of the days of the week. That's a clear pattern. You probably lost several big hands on Fridays due to variance that made the problem much worse then Sat/Sun, but no way variance is the main problem.

We all know that the games on weekends are loose with more gambly recs. You need to make adjustments to your game against those players. The most obvious adjustment is to tighten up. Its not as fun so few players do it, but that's the answer in loose crazy games. Run over tight daytime games. Tighten up and wait for one or 2 big hands in loose games.
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Old 06-16-2017, 10:18 AM   #19037
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I don't believe this for a minute.
I dont believe it either. Not if you are a strong winning player. Also, this is not a 15K sample on Fridays. Where I play I get 40 hands per hour which would put his Fri sample at 25,800. Even if we use 25 hands per hour, which is absurdly low unless the dealers suck and they dont use shuffle machines, that still puts Fridays hands at over 16000.

Winning live players dont lose over that many hands without played badly.
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Old 06-16-2017, 10:50 AM   #19038
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

While I'd agree it's certainly got some noise in it, it is slightly interesting that all weekend performance is poor and it's a ~30k hand sample. Similarly the other 30k hand sample on weekdays is noticeably better.

Are your session lengths longer on the weekend?

And that's all 1 stake?
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Old 06-16-2017, 11:03 AM   #19039
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600 hours can be variance. Lose 3 80/20 300bb pots and you swing your results $1800 or $3/hr. Or you can play your balls off to build a nice stack and lose it to a 2 out suckout or overset. Add in a little more noise on more marginal spots and your winnings are gone. *Then* you add some tilt and other mistakes stemming from having your soul crushed a few times and you end up down over that whole period.

I don't have *any* confidence in a 100 hour sample, so a 259 hour sample on Sundays is kind of suspect too.


So look at the difference between Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday. Those days should be pretty comparable in most rooms, and they have about the same sample size. But there's a good $15/hr spread in WR. If that's not variance over ~400 hours ... what is it? If his "true" WR is on the order of $18/hr (a respectable 9bb/hr, consistent with Tues. Sat. Sun), the $33-36/hr days are about as far away from the mean as the -$3/hr day. I wouldn't jump to thinking that his true WR should be $30/hr.



But based on my eyeballs I can say that in most rooms that I've played in the clientele and game conditions *do* change significantly between a Friday and a Tuesday. Fridays are generally busier, looser, and have more drinkers/partiers (fish), this, in turn, attracts the sharks. (lulz). So while on a Tuesday afternoon you may see a table of nearly identical nit-reg old people, a Friday might have a nit-reg OMC, an asian spewtard, a drunk MAWG, a drug dealer gambling it up, and a wannabe pro or two. Different dynamic and adjustments required. Yes, in a daytime game you can open it up and run them over, while you need to tighten a bit and pick your spots in the crazier games (unless you are *really* good at exploiting deep stacks and aggression on thin edges).

Beyond that, there's also the temptation to put in longer sessions on a weekend. That may explain why there are more hours on Friday than any other day. That leads to fatigue and mental mistakes. Which IME tend to be hard to notice until it's too late and just *destroy* your WR. One mistake at the end of a long session when you're sitting deep can be crushing compared to a mistake for a single BI early.
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Old 06-16-2017, 11:57 AM   #19040
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Originally Posted by Submerged View Post


I have a very nasty loss rate on Fridays that I really can't account for. I also don't do as well as I think I should on Saturdays. My recent results by session are 4 wins and 16 losses on my last 20 Friday trips.

My guess is that I loosen up way too much in the crazier games. I also think that the crazier weekend games take longer to reach the "long run". Probably a combination of both. What do you guys think and do any of you have the same?


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Might just be noise.

Although what I do find interesting is that the day you've put in the most hours is the day that is most out-of-wack with your overall results; I would expect the opposite. For example, my M-F results are all over the place, but my Sat/Sun results (where I've put in most of my hours) are the most closest to my overall results (i.e. I'd expect as you put in more hours then the more chance your results head towards the expected, but your stats show the exact opposite).

Are your weekend games really that much wilder than a normal game? My game is reg invested every day, so it really makes no difference; i.e. I'm just as likely to encounter the best game ever on a Monday afternoon and the worst game ever on a Saturday night. But if they are much wilder, there might be something to your thought that you are playing way too loose in wild games (where my guess is you'd be best rocking it up), and of course it doesn't take that many wild bad beats in big pots to have a big affect on results.

But, it could all just be noise. I mean, lol individual sample sizes, amirite?

GcluelessdayofweeknoobG
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Old 06-16-2017, 12:08 PM   #19041
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My day-by-day 1/3 NL results (keep in mind my overall is $22.04/hr over 3437:50 hours, so notice how on the days I've played more hours the more the results head towards my overall average):

Mon: $14.53/hr over 373:55 hours
Tue: $30.20/hr over 310:20 hours
Wed: $10.76/hr over 216:15 hours
Thur: $31.66/hr over 293:30 hours
Fri: $23.59/hr over 334:40 hours
Sat: $20.53/hr over 712:15 hours
Sun: $22.43/hr over 1196:55 hours

Unlike others, I don't believe there is any difference in game conditions from day to day where I play; they can be great vs sucky at any time simply depending on who is playing.

Gcluelessday-to-daystatsnoobG
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Old 06-16-2017, 12:35 PM   #19042
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GG - funny that thursday is yer biggest winnar. Same for me AND several of my buddies. Thursday is magical IMHO
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Old 06-16-2017, 12:56 PM   #19043
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Finally ticked 1000 hours at 1/2 and 1/3:

What's your winrate home game vs vegas game? Is the home game noticeably higher?
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Old 06-16-2017, 12:58 PM   #19044
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GG - funny that thursday is yer biggest winnar. Same for me AND several of my buddies. Thursday is magical IMHO
Obviously I suck on Mon/Wed but play my A game on Tue/Thur.

All my Mon-Thur are like a lol ~300 hours. They show I'm probably a winner in the game, but nothing more, imo.

ETA: Another thing that renders these stats even more meaningless is that they have been collected over 7-8 years, and obviously the game has changed. True story: My current winrate to-date this year would finish 8th on that list (yup, slightly worse than Wed, sigh, but again, lol sample size of 271 hours).

Gmeaninglessnoise,imoG
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Old 06-16-2017, 12:59 PM   #19045
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I'm confident I'm calculating my standard deviation correctly. I'm using the methodology you taught me in this thread a while back. I know that live is higher variance, but what I don't understand is: the biggest downswing I've ever been on is 1000 bb. That has occurred twice over the ~1000 hours. I have always understood that PLO variance is insane live or online and 10 buyin downswings are common. So, I don't understand how my standard deviation could be higher than an online PLO reg's.


Well if it gives you some perspective my PLO stdev is > 300 bb/hr. (*game is always straddled)
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Old 06-16-2017, 01:52 PM   #19046
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So for some unfiltered (all games, including some PLO and other ****, mostly $1/2 NLHE), poorly formatted and un-thought about results:

Day/Winnings/Hours/Rate
Mon -$787.0 / 1150.9 / -$0.68/hr
Tue $2,430.5 / 335.9 / $7.24/hr
Wed -$211.0 / 260.4 / -$0.81/hr
Thu $4,396.0 / 430.1 / $10.22/hr
Fri $4,160.0 / 546.5 / $7.61/hr
Sat $11,352.0 / 1287.7 / $8.82/hr
Sun $9,274.0 / 969.9 / $9.56/hr

These are all based on the session *END* time, so if I left at 2am after playing all night on Sunday, that counts as "Monday" here. I'd have to go back and re-calculate the start times somehow from the session duration.

Overall $6.14/hr for 4981 hours.

I think most of the Monday hours are probably staying too long on Sunday, but don't know for sure. Maybe this says that weekends are better ... maybe not. :shrug:
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Old 06-16-2017, 02:15 PM   #19047
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Man Thursday really is the magic day
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Old 06-16-2017, 02:58 PM   #19048
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Submerged View Post


I have a very nasty loss rate on Fridays that I really can't account for. I also don't do as well as I think I should on Saturdays. My recent results by session are 4 wins and 16 losses on my last 20 Friday trips.

My guess is that I loosen up way too much in the crazier games. I also think that the crazier weekend games take longer to reach the "long run". Probably a combination of both. What do you guys think and do any of you have the same?


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Better game leads to more showdowns leads to more variance leads to getting unstuck/getting rich leads to fatigue leads to playing worse leads to outlier result.
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Old 06-16-2017, 03:02 PM   #19049
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I think there are many reasons for the poor Friday results. Playing too long and being tired after a long work week is one. Drinking while playing is another. I don't always do it, but when I do it is on the weekend. Poor adjustments to crazier games is probably the biggest reason. Over the years rake has gone up and I still get in there and gamble with these guys and frankly I am just not good enough to mix it up like that. It has gotten so bad I actually passed up a chance to go play two weekend ago on a Friday just because of recent results.


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Old 06-16-2017, 05:16 PM   #19050
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Submerged View Post


I have a very nasty loss rate on Fridays that I really can't account for. I also don't do as well as I think I should on Saturdays. My recent results by session are 4 wins and 16 losses on my last 20 Friday trips.

My guess is that I loosen up way too much in the crazier games. I also think that the crazier weekend games take longer to reach the "long run". Probably a combination of both. What do you guys think and do any of you have the same?


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Imo you should get tighter and more aggressive pf in these wild games.
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