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Old 06-08-2017, 04:56 PM   #19001
OvertlySexual
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You can do miracles when you move to a level where they respect your raises.
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Old 06-08-2017, 05:30 PM   #19002
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Lightbulb moment at ~750 hour mark?

ETA: And I'm misreading things, or did you just recently ship a ~$5K session for like ~1/3rd your total profits?

Gcaretosharethesecret?G
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Old 06-08-2017, 05:39 PM   #19003
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
You can do miracles when you move to a level where they respect your raises.
In b4 strat infraction.
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Old 06-08-2017, 05:48 PM   #19004
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Lightbulb moment at ~750 hour mark?

ETA: And I'm misreading things, or did you just recently ship a ~$5K session for like ~1/3rd your total profits?

Gcaretosharethesecret?G
No lightbulb moment...seems like the doomswitch turned off though. Was very close to quitting as the enormous amount of study I had put in (well over 1k study hours) in the first 750 hours was clearly not paying off....(or so I thought)

No you are reading correctly - It was my best session to date a few weeks ago...+4.2k in 9 hours at 2/5. (500 max)

As I'm sure you're well aware....the secret was

Spoiler:
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Old 06-08-2017, 06:26 PM   #19005
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You don't want them to respect your raises. But they sure as hell better respect your mustache (rides). (Love that avatar.)

If the second half of that graph mostly corresponds to the $2/5, while the first half is $1/2 ... you may actually have just been suffering from a variant of FPS. Trying to make $1/2 players fold and/or overthinking spots that you shouldn't have. Then when moving to $2/5 the players have more tendency to fold, or some other game condition is different.

Is all that $2/5 in 2017? 500 hours is impressive in half a year. (At least as a rec player.)

I've had discussions with a few poker friends about the differences between our local Charity games (which can be really wild) and the casino games downtown (which can be more rock filled). They're both $1/2 games, and they're both pretty easy to beat, but they require very different adjustments and exploits. It's funny as we started playing in different pools and as a result default to very different player profiles for unknown games. So if you're stuck playing more of a fixed "style" it's easy to see large changes in WR by moving venue.
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Old 06-08-2017, 10:10 PM   #19006
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ya I'm still learning to adjust to different games.


Also, +1 for not overthinking 1/2. I suffered from that for a while. Just fold when you're supposed to and let them give you their money. You'll still be far more aggressive than most of them so use that to get your LAG rocks off. I can count on one hand the number of players I have to worry about deception against. (Angrist is on that list). The thing is that there's so many other easier situations going on in a game where we're at the same table that we very rarely end up playing pots against each other so it barely matters anyway.

In my very limited 2/5 experience, that only changes slightly. Still lots of easy marks.
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Old 06-09-2017, 02:31 PM   #19007
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Finally ticked 1000 hours at 1/2 and 1/3:

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Old 06-09-2017, 02:50 PM   #19008
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Somewhere between 27.5 bb/hr and 18.3 bb/hr ?!?!


That's damned impressive. Are those uncapped or high cap BI games with $600+ stacks often?

If not ... where should I book my plane ticket to?
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Old 06-09-2017, 02:59 PM   #19009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Somewhere between 27.5 bb/hr and 18.3 bb/hr ?!?!


That's damned impressive. Are those uncapped or high cap BI games with $600+ stacks often?

If not ... where should I book my plane ticket to?
A good chunk is vegas and the rest is a home game with 300 cap, but stacks can get bigger because everyone will usually fire more than a buy-in before leaving the table, which usually isn't the case in the casino.
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Old 06-09-2017, 03:02 PM   #19010
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Man that's a nice one for sure
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Old 06-09-2017, 03:06 PM   #19011
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Sick results! Prob need tons of live reads to win @ that clip, and even then it's not sustainable imo, but obv still a big winner in the game.

But ya, if you're a crusher and you run great (like luckiest 1% of players) over 1000 hrs I can see it.
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Old 06-09-2017, 03:06 PM   #19012
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A good chunk is vegas and the rest is a home game with 300 cap, but stacks can get bigger because everyone will usually fire more than a buy-in before leaving the table, which usually isn't the case in the casino.
Ah, that makes sense. Good game selection in Vegas can be a dream (other times trash from my visits though ).

Do you mean $300 cap, or 300BB cap? Either way, if it's usually sitting closer to $600+ effective stack sizes with people willing to GII you can have a crazy high WR over a few hundred hours.


I've thought for a while that the right metric for comparing winrate is some fraction of the effective stack per hour, rather than BB/hr. But that's a nearly impossible statistic to calculate.
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Old 06-09-2017, 03:10 PM   #19013
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

looks like he hit a pretty nasty downswing at the 468 hour mark
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Old 06-09-2017, 03:26 PM   #19014
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LOL
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Old 06-09-2017, 03:30 PM   #19015
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Ah, that makes sense. Good game selection in Vegas can be a dream (other times trash from my visits though ).

Do you mean $300 cap, or 300BB cap? Either way, if it's usually sitting closer to $600+ effective stack sizes with people willing to GII you can have a crazy high WR over a few hundred hours.


I've thought for a while that the right metric for comparing winrate is some fraction of the effective stack per hour, rather than BB/hr. But that's a nearly impossible statistic to calculate.
$300 cap, but yeah, average stacks around 500-600 in later hours.
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Old 06-09-2017, 03:31 PM   #19016
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yeah that graph is sexy
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Old 06-09-2017, 03:41 PM   #19017
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Impressive results Donkey!

Ggoodluckthenext1000hoursG
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Old 06-09-2017, 04:11 PM   #19018
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Finally ticked 1000 hours at 1/2 and 1/3:




It's sick. It's sickening. It's piss.
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Old 06-09-2017, 10:33 PM   #19019
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Finally ticked 1000 hours at 1/2 and 1/3:

****ing disgusting.
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Old 06-15-2017, 10:48 AM   #19020
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I was reading on the High Stakes PLO forum that a lot of the 6max PLO regs/pros were reporting standard deviations of 150 bb/100 hands. This seems like it can't be right. I have 1000 hours of mostly 1/3 and my standard deviation is well over that. I can't believe online high stakes PLO would have less variance than live low stakes. I suppose they could have meant 150BB so 300bb?

Does anyone with live PLO experience have input on this? Also, would a live 2/5 PLO game that plays primarily without a straddle have a more comparable winrate to a 2/5 NLHE game or a 5/10 NLHE game for the best player at the table in either scenario?
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Old 06-15-2017, 11:00 AM   #19021
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It depends on the game but plo wr is certainly higher than the same stake NL. I think it's going to be a wide range. Like some 2/5 plos are under a 5/10NL and others are over.

i.e. if your wr is $45/hr at 2/5 NL and $90/hr in 5/10 NL (crushing, imo) then your 2/5 plo wr is prolly gonna be somewhere between $60/hr and $120/hr. The games just vary really widely and as you said variance is huge.

I've confirmed this with little experience after thinking about it.
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Old 06-15-2017, 03:10 PM   #19022
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
I was reading on the High Stakes PLO forum that a lot of the 6max PLO regs/pros were reporting standard deviations of 150 bb/100 hands. This seems like it can't be right. I have 1000 hours of mostly 1/3 and my standard deviation is well over that. I can't believe online high stakes PLO would have less variance than live low stakes. I suppose they could have meant 150BB so 300bb?

Does anyone with live PLO experience have input on this? Also, would a live 2/5 PLO game that plays primarily without a straddle have a more comparable winrate to a 2/5 NLHE game or a 5/10 NLHE game for the best player at the table in either scenario?


The effect that 5~9 way flops has on stdev can't be exaggerated. Live will always be much (much) higher stdev than online.

Winrate thread makes this common mistake often:
Online stdev is in /100 hands
Live is in /hr
So they go with 25 hands per hour and...
multiply their stdev by 4x (which is wrong).

The correct equivalency is sqrt(4) = 2. So their 150bb/100 is 75bb/hr live.

Then the other differences come from straddles, stack depths, loose preflop play multiway, etc.

(Sorry if you are doing stdev right already... it just is a common mistake)

----
In terms of live WR discussions - don't base decisions on what other players do or claim, base game selection on how much is lost at the table. Structures (like "2/5 NL $500 cap") do not come with a WR. Donators determine your winrate.
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Old 06-15-2017, 03:37 PM   #19023
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So, if I play 30 hands an hour, it's square root of 3.333=1.825, correct?
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Old 06-15-2017, 04:20 PM   #19024
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I'm confident I'm calculating my standard deviation correctly. I'm using the methodology you taught me in this thread a while back. I know that live is higher variance, but what I don't understand is: the biggest downswing I've ever been on is 1000 bb. That has occurred twice over the ~1000 hours. I have always understood that PLO variance is insane live or online and 10 buyin downswings are common. So, I don't understand how my standard deviation could be higher than an online PLO reg's.
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Old 06-15-2017, 11:35 PM   #19025
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances



I have a very nasty loss rate on Fridays that I really can't account for. I also don't do as well as I think I should on Saturdays. My recent results by session are 4 wins and 16 losses on my last 20 Friday trips.

My guess is that I loosen up way too much in the crazier games. I also think that the crazier weekend games take longer to reach the "long run". Probably a combination of both. What do you guys think and do any of you have the same?


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