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Old 06-04-2017, 09:03 PM   #18951
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
I mean tbh I kinda get what the other side is saying too.

If you are having a huge downswing at lower stakes, it's probably not ALL variance, just because if you are playing $2/5 you are probably still doing a lot of things that are bad but you don't know are bad. The player pool is bad enough that you can win despite having these leaks. So when you are having a downswing, perhaps some of that is due to bad play stemming from tilt or a lack of fundamentals, which I agree with.

However, I can guarantee that the people running hot at $2/5 are also not nearly as good as they think, and have a lot of leaks that are simply not being punished because the player pool isn't good enough to do that.

Not sure why my last post was removed but this was pretty much the response I was looking for from you. 5/T games play much differently and are much more difficult than typical live low stakes lineups.
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Old 06-04-2017, 09:17 PM   #18952
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There are clearly many different type games that we all play in. Ive been in a grand total of 1 400BB pot in my entire live career that totals about 2200 hrs since I started playing full time and maybe 3-500 sporadic part time hours before that.

Im sure that very good players that play in deep games can easily have much bigger downswings than Ive had. On the same note though, those same very good players should have much higher win rates if they are playing in deep games and have a huge edge. If they arent winning at rates over 8-10BBs when playing deep, then they may not be all that great.

An 8-10BB win rate in 100BB capped game is very very difficult to achieve. It should be easier in deep games even though variance is also clearly higher.
Deep games are often at higher stakes where the edges are smaller (fewer fish, average skill level of winning players is much higher).

My current winrate in BB's is probably lower than some $2/5 players who play in soft games and aren't remotely close to my skill level, but I play much higher so that's okay.

And the games will only continue to get harder, across all levels, starting from high stakes but slowly trickling down to the lower stakes, as mediocre pros start moving lower in stakes. So enjoy the soft games while it lasts.
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Old 06-04-2017, 10:17 PM   #18953
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I would like to point out this is a low stakes forum but yes, there is a very large gap between 2/5 and 5T.

I'd actually argue that the gap between 2/5 and 5T is growing faster than how "tough" 2/5 is growing. Alot of it stems from just the size of the player pool and the amount of work that it requires to break a certain threshold of skill in poker.
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Old 06-05-2017, 09:12 AM   #18954
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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
but slowly trickling down to the lower stakes, as mediocre pros start moving lower in stakes. So enjoy the soft games while it lasts.
This will never happen. 2/5 and lower will always be recreational, because it cannot sustain a reasonable income (or if it could those players would be doing something better with their time). Their is a natural equilibrium in this environment, bip! talked about it alot back in the day.

The live low stakes games are dying slowly from their peak, sure, but that's from fad decline, whale decline, etc. They'll eventually just go back to something larger than 1998 levels but smaller than 2005 levels. And they'll still be very profitable.
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Old 06-05-2017, 09:26 AM   #18955
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This will never happen. 2/5 and lower will always be recreational, because it cannot sustain a reasonable income (or if it could those players would be doing something better with their time). Their is a natural equilibrium in this environment, bip! talked about it alot back in the day.

The live low stakes games are dying slowly from their peak, sure, but that's from fad decline, whale decline, etc. They'll eventually just go back to something larger than 1998 levels but smaller than 2005 levels. And they'll still be very profitable.
100% disagree with you.

Primarily because people are getting better at the game across the board, but also because rake will be harder and harder to beat.
If for no other reason than the fact that rake will keep going up but the stake will stay the same. And people won't realize what it's doing to their win rate and people will go broke.
Many 1/2 games in the country right now are charging you 2bb per hand to play. That's pretty hefty.

Or maybe I should say I disagree with you for 40 - 70% of the current winning population. Of course the top will always survive because they work harder, study more, have better mental game, etc. but large chuncks of the poker playing population will chose to / have to find something else imo.

Edited for poorly explained.

Last edited by iraisetoomuch; 06-05-2017 at 11:21 AM.
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Old 06-05-2017, 09:33 AM   #18956
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Well rake is a different topic and Id agree that it is in fact the biggest risk games face (educated player base being like #7 or #8 on my list of concerns).
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Old 06-05-2017, 01:01 PM   #18957
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Our 1/3 $300 max BI rake of 10% went from a maximum of $5 in 2015 (which it had been at for quite a few years), to $6 in 2016, to now $7 in 2017. Our poker rooms are finally realizing they can increase it yearly to whatever they want and have no affect on their traffic. Pretty sure each $1 increase has a much more devastating affect on the player's bottom line than anyone realizes, and probably won't take more than a few more dollars increase to make the game almost unbeatable to anything other than popcans/hr (especially when added on top of all of the other declining conditions).

Gsky75%falleninthismarket,imoG
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Old 06-05-2017, 05:04 PM   #18958
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Does anyone have an excel formula for calculating hourly std dev if you track hours/session and net/session?
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Old 06-05-2017, 05:08 PM   #18959
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There are a ton of different ways, YouTube is your friend
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Old 06-05-2017, 05:53 PM   #18960
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Alright, time to re-rail this train.

I was digging into my results a little bit the other week, and now finally got around to finishing and posting some figures now that May is in the books.

First off, the overall winrate data:


The "other" is a mix of PLO, RxR, some PLO Hi/Lo, a little bit of $1/3 or stupid tournaments too.
4330.9 hours of $1/2, 650.5 hours of the other crap.

Pretty clear that sitting in those other games, even if they are drooler filled home games, is a bit of a leak. I know the variance in a PLO game should be higher than NLHE, and that the 650 hour sample might still be LOL small for it too. But there are too many spots in PLO I just don't know how to approach on a short roll. :shrug:

Since I don't see this from anyone else, the trailing sample winrates for $1/2:


I haven't been getting to the Casino as often in the last year or so, but playing in home games or charity games without the ability to table select much, and I think that shows in a recent drop in WR. All the big action players have moved to PLO too.

Then in case anyone cares:


Overall 2017 has been a mixed bag so far.

+$1212.5/158.6 = $7.65/hr for NLHE
-$875/98.3 = -$8.90/hr for PLO/RxR type games.

I need to A) Get better at PLO and B) play more NLHE to make up for it.
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Old 06-05-2017, 06:31 PM   #18961
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Most of the people that talk about never getting to the long term in Live Low Stakes simply aren't as good as they think they are ...


There is certainly something to what D.C. Is saying imo. It's part of why there is a pool of losing regs.

But to deny that significant stretches of negative variance exist is naive.

I mean a guy who has ****ty results for a significant stretch and claims he's now worked hard, has it all figured out and is seeing good results might be bull****ting himself up every bit as much as the guy who you point to that was a winner and is now in the abyss.

By definition the outliers can't realize the long run very easily. Are their more people claiming to be outliers than statistically should exist? Maybe.

I recall Limon saying he had a break even year about every 5 years when he looked at his long term results. I'm assuming he didn't totally suck but if you shuffle the deck and put that first break even year 3 months into his pro career or so that would be pretty ugly? Caro wrote about it. We may have never heard of the guy who would become the greatest poker player ever because he ran horrifically bad at the beginning of his career.

Obv I want bad players who are losing in my player pool to think they are unlucky. I also want bad players who are sun running to think they are awesome. But outside my player pool, unless I personally know and care about someone I really have no reason to discuss the subject... but it took me writing this to figure that out




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Old 06-05-2017, 07:44 PM   #18962
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I recall Limon saying he had a break even year about every 5 years when he looked at his long term results.
Yeah, and that great pearl of wisdom helped convince his good buddy Trooper that he was just running bad when he lost $8k+ over a 15 month period playing 1/2.
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Old 06-05-2017, 08:17 PM   #18963
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Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
There is certainly something to what D.C. Is saying imo. It's part of why there is a pool of losing regs.

But to deny that significant stretches of negative variance exist is naive.

I mean a guy who has ****ty results for a significant stretch and claims he's now worked hard, has it all figured out and is seeing good results might be bull****ting himself up every bit as much as the guy who you point to that was a winner and is now in the abyss.

By definition the outliers can't realize the long run very easily. Are their more people claiming to be outliers than statistically should exist? Maybe.

I recall Limon saying he had a break even year about every 5 years when he looked at his long term results. I'm assuming he didn't totally suck but if you shuffle the deck and put that first break even year 3 months into his pro career or so that would be pretty ugly? Caro wrote about it. We may have never heard of the guy who would become the greatest poker player ever because he ran horrifically bad at the beginning of his career.

Obv I want bad players who are losing in my player pool to think they are unlucky. I also want bad players who are sun running to think they are awesome. But outside my player pool, unless I personally know and care about someone I really have no reason to discuss the subject... but it took me writing this to figure that out




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Limon is pretty terrible no?
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Old 06-05-2017, 08:22 PM   #18964
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Limon is a long time pro that can't post to defend himself here. He mostly plays Omaha these days. Really, without understanding the full context of his past statements, discussing it is pretty pointless.
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Old 06-05-2017, 08:22 PM   #18965
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Limon is pretty terrible no?


No idea tbh. I thought he was a "successful" live pro in cali for a long time so I assumed he was at least ok. Admittedly the few times I saw him on latb he seemed like a weak tight nit including his big PLO pot with Harry but wtfdik???




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Old 06-05-2017, 10:34 PM   #18966
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Whenever I hear him speak strategy on latb, and I'm speaking about Holdem because I've not seen him speak much about PLO, it sounds as though he's not thinking very deeply about spots at all. I actually took him to be a recreational who seems very involved in the game - because nothing about him speaking about strat lead me to believe he was anywhere near pro level. Garnering this from a few latb YouTube vids on which he's commentated...
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Old 06-05-2017, 10:36 PM   #18967
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Talking about win rates =
Talking about other people win rates for which we do not know is meh at best.
Talking about other people being not good is unacceptable regardless of veracity.
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Old 06-05-2017, 11:55 PM   #18968
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Expected profit at 3/5 NL at Commerce?

Curious as to what people think a good reg would make playing 30 hours/ wk at Commerce 3/5 NL (200 buyin, 300 rebuy) at Commerce? I dunno what people consider bb played/ hr so would be interested in hearing what is common thought there too
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Old 06-06-2017, 12:26 AM   #18969
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Re: Expected profit at 3/5 NL at Commerce?

Anyone think 10BB/ hr is sustainable?
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Old 06-06-2017, 06:06 AM   #18970
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Limon is a long time pro that can't post to defend himself here. He mostly plays Omaha these days. Really, without understanding the full context of his past statements, discussing it is pretty pointless.
I don't think he's played applicable stakes for 15 years or so.
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Old 06-06-2017, 09:40 AM   #18971
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Re: Expected profit at 3/5 NL at Commerce?

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Originally Posted by stinkroach View Post
Curious as to what people think a good reg would make playing 30 hours/ wk at Commerce 3/5 NL (200 buyin, 300 rebuy) at Commerce? I dunno what people consider bb played/ hr so would be interested in hearing what is common thought there too
Questions like this are so hard to answer. Everyone's opinion of a "good reg" is so different. $50/hour would seem like the high end for one of the better players in the room, especially with the $200 buy-in plan. You really can't protect your hand with 40 bb in a big action game (but of course, that's more a strategy question than a win-rate question).
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Old 06-06-2017, 11:13 AM   #18972
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Alright, time to re-rail this train.

I was digging into my results a little bit the other week, and now finally got around to finishing and posting some figures now that May is in the books.

First off, the overall winrate data:
Nice results, looks like things have really picked up for you the last ~1500 hours? Do you attribute that to anything, or just variance?

GthanksforpostingG
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Old 06-06-2017, 11:21 AM   #18973
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Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
Caro wrote about it. We may have never heard of the guy who would become the greatest poker player ever because he ran horrifically bad at the beginning of his career.
I started off at live casino poker playing 2/4 Limit, going 12-29 for -$1200 in my first 41 sessions. Not exactly sure where my breaking point would have been to give it up completely, but I'm guessing I was pretty close (maybe -$2K?).

GtherebutforthegraceofthedevilgoIG
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Old 06-06-2017, 12:26 PM   #18974
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Nice results, looks like things have really picked up for you the last ~1500 hours? Do you attribute that to anything, or just variance?

GthanksforpostingG
Well, I have been trying to improve in general over the whole time.

It's hard to do the conversion between real dates and hours here, but I defended my dissertation around the 2500 hour mark. As I got more removed from that I realized just how much that kind of stress and life issues can tilt you, even if you don't notice it at the table.

I've also started playing in smaller pools with more home games, and that lets you really profile opponents and build images against them.
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Old 06-06-2017, 04:41 PM   #18975
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Re: Expected profit at 3/5 NL at Commerce?

If you play those 30 hours strictly on the weekend your winrate is going to be a lot higher. The $200 is the smallest game in LA with a beatable structure for money that will actually help you build up a roll. Your plan should be to win until you can take shots at any of the bigger games at comm bike the gardens or Hollywood park not to grind this game for the long term.

Basically in that game you should only play when many tables are running and it's super easy to bumhunt because the structure caps your winrate otherwise unless you have people dumping at your table. If the dealer isn't shouting chips every down it's a bad table.
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