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Old 06-02-2017, 09:08 PM   #18926
Dream Crusher
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Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
That's crazy. At Borgata with 100bb cap?
The game was probably crazy but running below EV in 4 pots isn't crazy at all.

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Originally Posted by water69 View Post
You really can run way below (or way above) EV for a long time in live poker. Especially when people are getting it in a lot and getting to see all 5 cards.
Your last sentence is very true but this type of game is definitely not the norm in live low stakes. Perhaps in certain games/markets but not in general.
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Old 06-02-2017, 09:13 PM   #18927
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You're right. I've recently relocated and thought it was awesome how light people were getting it in compared to my old city. After being here for 9 months and going through the most ridiculous and brutal swings, I kinda miss my old game that played deeper and allowed me to scoop a ton of pots without having to turn over the best hand.
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Old 06-03-2017, 02:09 AM   #18928
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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Mike, you play 2/5 and you're saying that 600b is the 2nd largest downswing you've ever had?

That seems.. unrealistic.
Most of the things Mike posts seem that way to me, based on my experience. Especially related to sample size.

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Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
I think Mike tries to play a very exploitable style. (a style that 95% or more of the player pool won't know how to exploit) That's also probably the only way to get a 70%+ cash rate over a decent sample.

Has to be a nice combination of big folds, funky value, and checking.
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Meaning you are consciously deviating far away from general GTO strat to attack or defend against the overall opponents you play against.
This is my assessment as well. The lines that Mike takes in his strat threads would not or do not work in the games I play in. They are lighting money on fire against my V's.
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Old 06-03-2017, 06:31 AM   #18929
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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
The game was probably crazy but running below EV in 4 pots isn't crazy at all.



Your last sentence is very true but this type of game is definitely not the norm in live low stakes. Perhaps in certain games/markets but not in general.
Yeah but in 45 min it's pretty crazy imo. That's like 20 hands
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:09 AM   #18930
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Most of the things Mike posts seem that way to me, based on my experience. Especially related to sample size.





This is my assessment as well. The lines that Mike takes in his strat threads would not or do not work in the games I play in. They are lighting money on fire against my V's.
I can assure you that Im not coming here over and over for 18 months just to post controversial **** and troll everyone. Everything I post is true.

Honestly, I log on here most days and shake my head at the stuff I read. Kinda like you guys do when you read my posts I guess.

I watch decent players go thru 3-4 buy ins in 2 hrs on multiple days in a row and I think "why are you doing that? Its not necessary to crush this game"

I see certain people post things in strat forums that seems terrible to me that they act like is standard and then they post in this win rate thread about bad downswings and I think to myself "what do you expect?"

It really boggles my mind that people here mock the lines I take and then are shocked at my results...and they see no correlation between my success that surprises them and the lines I take that they dont agree with.
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:27 AM   #18931
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I can assure you that Im not coming here over and over for 18 months just to post controversial **** and troll everyone. Everything I post is true.

Honestly, I log on here most days and shake my head at the stuff I read. Kinda like you guys do when you read my posts I guess.

I watch decent players go thru 3-4 buy ins in 2 hrs on multiple days in a row and I think "why are you doing that? Its not necessary to crush this game"

I see certain people post things in strat forums that seems terrible to me that they act like is standard and then they post in this win rate thread about bad downswings and I think to myself "what do you expect?"

It really boggles my mind that people here mock the lines I take and then are shocked at my results...and they see no correlation between my success that surprises them and the lines I take that they dont agree with.

Huge +1 Mike, i feel alot of the same way. Ive been crushing both 1-3 and 2-5 over the last 1000 hours harder than ever, for like 12 BB hour. That is literally destroying the games by 2017 standards, and i know you have similar winrates for decent samplesizes.

Even thoug i have been disagreeing with you in some threads, and calling you out for pushing your winrates in front of every thread discussion you get yourself into- we are totally on the same page here, youre hitting the homerun in this post.

Its not rare for me either to ask myself when i see posters report of downswings for x amount of buyins in short period of time, and "breakeven" stretches on several hundred hours- like you no **** Sherlock when i see what hands people stackoff with, what lines they take and generally the lack of profiling on their opponents+ the lack of handle on the player pool population main tendencies at different stakes.

My biggest downswing ever is like 8 buyins aka 100 BB each, and i cant even remember last time i hit my personal stoploss limit for one session wich is 4 buyins.
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:32 AM   #18932
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wish i could poast and hit the homerun
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:37 AM   #18933
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I guess the answer and reality is that lots of posters on this forum wich likes to come off as big long time winners in the games, in reality is marginal winners or even breakeven/small losers long term with huge leaks in their game.
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Old 06-03-2017, 09:28 AM   #18934
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Since we're talking downswings, my biggest at 2/5 I'm hopefully just pulling out of, down 4300. Also had one night back in like 2009 where I lost 3400 playing 2/4 online with a maniac while stoned, still don't know whether I was +ev in that game haha. People with higher winrates have lower chance of going on a downswing, even with a higher variance style - which mine definitely is, giving how many 1k+ stacks I've punted off with air.
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Old 06-03-2017, 09:37 AM   #18935
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Originally Posted by Ranma4703 View Post
Since we're talking downswings, my biggest at 2/5 I'm hopefully just pulling out of, down 4300. Also had one night back in like 2009 where I lost 3400 playing 2/4 online with a maniac while stoned, still don't know whether I was +ev in that game haha. People with higher winrates have lower chance of going on a downswing, even with a higher variance style - which mine definitely is, giving how many 1k+ stacks I've punted off with air.

If you almost routinely punts off 1K stacks with air (out of curiosity why is that happenning?), i would say you have huge potenial to raise your winrate if you can just manage to plug that leak.

Those kind of things have an insane impact on your longterm winrate, its alot more serious than many players may believe.

Same goes for losing lots of BB or even your whole stack in hands you shouldnt have entered in the first place. Or follow up mistakes in other words.

The domino effect on these things makes the impact so big over time.
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Old 06-03-2017, 11:39 AM   #18936
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It's not so much an issue of "oh those lines look funny and make no sense" it's that "I've seen and or tried those lines, and they don't work that way." So either it's still that live sample sizes are LOL small even if we don't want to admit it, or that different player pools can be *vastly* different in behavior and results.
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Old 06-03-2017, 06:50 PM   #18937
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I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times. Everyone that posts they have never had these bad downswings are the sunrunners who are the lucky ones running well over expectation. I imagine there are a lot of them on a forum like this, as they have self selected themselves as "great" players.

Like I've posted before, I've lost more buyins as an 80/20 favorite in one down than a lot of these luckboxes have lost in their biggest "downswing".
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Old 06-03-2017, 07:07 PM   #18938
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Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times. Everyone that posts they have never had these bad downswings are the sunrunners who are the lucky ones running well over expectation. I imagine there are a lot of them on a forum like this, as they have self selected themselves as "great" players.

Like I've posted before, I've lost more buyins as an 80/20 favorite in one down than a lot of these luckboxes have lost in their biggest "downswing".
+1

Everyone will come to understand variance and downswings in their own time. You can't really convince people until they experience it themselves.

I think the "short term" in poker can go on for years, and inevitably some people will just run far above expectation for the duration of their poker career which clouds judgement. I used to be a sun runner who thought I ran "average." My comments regarding variance ITT circa 2015 were/are pretty comical looking back.

There is a certain hubris that comes with running good that I was certainly guilty of and see in many others, but at the end of the day it's not worth thinking too much about. Now I just try to make the best decisions possible and hope the pendulum swings back.
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Old 06-03-2017, 08:45 PM   #18939
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If you almost routinely punts off 1K stacks with air (out of curiosity why is that happenning?), i would say you have huge potenial to raise your winrate if you can just manage to plug that leak.

Those kind of things have an insane impact on your longterm winrate, its alot more serious than many players may believe.

Same goes for losing lots of BB or even your whole stack in hands you shouldnt have entered in the first place. Or follow up mistakes in other words.

The domino effect on these things makes the impact so big over time.
Definitely true, which is why it is so crazy that my winrate is at high as it is right now. Honestly, part of it is because I smoke a lot of weed when I play, otherwise I can't put in any hours, and it makes me spazz out occasionally.

I also go for thin value a lot with hands like this: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...range-1628324/ where I have KK and sometimes I'm too thin (like in that hand)

and lots of leveraged bets like this:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...73/?highlight=
and I'd probably benefit from playing more reg/TAG. But I enjoy exploring different lines so plenty of times I take non optimal lines because I'm trying something out and I'm wrong. But I'm not a pro so it is not a problem.

But also some just complete screw ups - where I squeeze 53s vs a loose, new opener and get called and end up bet/jamming turn with a gutshot and getting snapped by the nut straight and 3 outs to chop.

Lots of nit regs dislike playing against me because of the variance so they table switch away or play super tight which benefits me. And the battle regs battle with me, and plenty of gambly fish love playing with me, to the point where they seek me out and are happy to have me at their table.

So basically - you are right it's -ev, I've done it my whole poker career, always been a winning player but not massively so, until recently at 2/5 live (used to play NL200 online). It's a leak that I live with because money is only a part of why I play poker. I've also started playing much tighter preflop then I used to, which makes it a lot easier to be super aggressive in some bad spots and still win






tldr: sometimes I pay attention to this advice I got 4 years ago, and sometimes I don't
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Ranma,

I get the sense that you know a lot about poker and are probably the best player at the table when you sit down as far as technical skill goes.

But the reason why players like you will have a ton of circa 2005 Mike Matosaw blow ups is because of ego and trying to turn -EV spots into +EV gold because you are just so awesome like that.

About once per 3 sessions I will be at a table with someone like you, a younger, very technically skilled player (usually has tons of online experience). And said player goes on to just rape the table for 1 to 2 hours just making lots of sick plays and showing everyone who is boss until...

His pride gets him in a spot that his ego will not let him fold his way out of and then BOOM. We get a 200bb - 400bb stack off with garbage.

A couple of months ago I won my biggest pot ever at 2/5nl (2/5nl deep stack 1500 max buy-in), $6k. We were both $3k deep and this villain was very aggro and very competent in his skill and that he was just the best player ever to have graced the felt.

Long story short, he tried to bluff me for $3k with a baby pair when I turned quads. There was no reason for him to be in the hand, I had 3-bet preflop and I hit the flop strong... But he was convinced he could "outplay" me and I owned him. I had called him down earlier with mid pair and he was determined to blow me off and hand and show the bluff (he'd been doing that a lot). But the net result is that I stacked him for $3k in a pot he had absolutely no business being in to begin with.

Well, that's my critique. Do with it what you will.

GL

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Old 06-04-2017, 05:06 AM   #18940
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I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times. Everyone that posts they have never had these bad downswings are the sunrunners who are the lucky ones running well over expectation. I imagine there are a lot of them on a forum like this, as they have self selected themselves as "great" players.

Like I've posted before, I've lost more buyins as an 80/20 favorite in one down than a lot of these luckboxes have lost in their biggest "downswing".

I havent self "selected" myself as anything- my results and what i know about the game in all kind of ways proves that i am a pretty decent player. Ive been winning steadily from the first time i sat down at a live poker table, wich is like 7-8 years ago. Most of the volume ive played over these years ive been one of the biggest winners in my playerpool. That is basically telling me all i need to know.

But its interesting that you and other posters argue that because of variance and "that we dont fully understand variance" (i guess its strictly players with smaller winrates or that have blasted through downswings in the 20-30 buyins area that really understand variance), cant tell if we are skilled players or even long term winners. So what you are saying basically, that due to variance wich we are supposed to never reach longterm- that we cant seperate winning players from breakeven or losing players. Everbody is apperantly just as good or just as bad in this game, and all on the same skillevel and we all have the same knowledge.
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Old 06-04-2017, 05:42 AM   #18941
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Most of the people that talk about never getting to the long term in Live Low Stakes simply aren't as good as they think they are and want to justify their mediocre results by blaming it on lol samplesize. The really good players are the ones that have recognized they have major holes in their game and have worked to address those holes rather than looking for ways to justify their mediocrity.

You think guys like Matt Berkey and Gman are just sunrunners that caught the good end of variance in live poker? GTFO of here with that bull****. Those guys busted their ass hard to get where to where they are at. Way harder than you or me. I don't know exact figures, but Phil Ivey regularly plays 18+ hour days. During his deep WSOP run he would play the main event all day. Then he would go play in Bobby's room, and then he would go play online. Most players don't have this sort of commitment to the game. You wanna know why your results are less than stellar? That's why. Bust your ass and get better or just keep telling yourself that you're simply doomed to run bad forever and ever.
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Old 06-04-2017, 06:13 AM   #18942
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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Most of the people that talk about never getting to the long term in Live Low Stakes simply aren't as good as they think they are and want to justify their mediocre results by blaming it on lol samplesize. The really good players are the ones that have recognized they have major holes in their game and have worked to address those holes rather than looking for ways to justify their mediocrity.

You think guys like Matt Berkey and Gman are just sunrunners that caught the good end of variance in live poker? GTFO of here with that bull****. Those guys busted their ass hard to get where to where they are at. Way harder than you or me. I don't know exact figures, but Phil Ivey regularly plays 18+ hour days. During his deep WSOP run he would play the main event all day. Then he would go play in Bobby's room, and then he would go play online. Most players don't have this sort of commitment to the game. You wanna know why your results are less than stellar? That's why. Bust your ass and get better or just keep telling yourself that you're simply doomed to run bad forever and ever.

For sure +1, well put. Most players are delusional when it comes to gauge their true skillevel and the majority vastly overestimates themself in their own head. When the results isnt up to par, and sunrunning doesent save their asses anymore when they make spewy plays,bad reads, make losing stackoffs, 3 bets light into a nutted range pre or whatever- then they get desperate to find ways to keep fooling themself and to find ways to explain their sub par results.

"If you take away a persons delusional pictures in life, you take away their whole life"- H. Ibsen
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Old 06-04-2017, 09:34 AM   #18943
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Warning: Not using the names of the players you are referring to does not mean that you are free to slag them ITT. Nothing has quite crossed the line yet, but it's getting very close to the sort of pissing contest that made us shut this thread down before and only bring it back with strict rules.
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Old 06-04-2017, 10:01 AM   #18944
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When your results aren't as good as you like in poker, it may be due to bad play, variance or a combination of both. Since you can never be sure, you need to be as as honest as possible with your self in order to assess your game.

People arguing that people who haven't experience large downswings maybe sunrunning do have a point. Moreover, people love having the illusion of control and feeling that our results are a function of our skill and beyond that our choices and hard work. But if there's one group on earth that should understand that this isn't always the case, it should be poker players.

Also, let's not forget this. Variance affects people in different ways; by default and expectation a small minority of players should experience results that are extraordinary. For example - and I am using this to illustrate the point, the numbers are ballbark- if you have a true 10bb/hr winner, 95% of his results over a given sample should fall between 7 and 13bb/hr. But 5% of his results could fall outside that range. So you could have a small minority of 10bb/hr winners who are either winning at an awesome clip of 13bb/hr plus or winning at a subpar clip of 7bb/hr and bellow.

Since this is the minority of cases, people experiencing such numbers should first focus their attention on their play, because that should be the no 1 explanation of this happening. But all of this being variance shouldn't be precluded as a reason.

The same is true of downswings and upswings. Within a population of 10bb/hr winners, the vast majority of the downswings should fall within a particular range. But again, by default, a small minority should experience swings that are outliers from what is expected and experienced by most other players.

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Old 06-04-2017, 02:45 PM   #18945
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Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times. Everyone that posts they have never had these bad downswings are the sunrunners who are the lucky ones running well over expectation. I imagine there are a lot of them on a forum like this, as they have self selected themselves as "great" players.

Like I've posted before, I've lost more buyins as an 80/20 favorite in one down than a lot of these luckboxes have lost in their biggest "downswing".
You're not really considering the effect of different playing styles and game conditions on downswings. Using Mike as an example, it seems unbelievable that he has only had two >= 6 BI downswings in the time he's played so far, but he reports an absurdly low standard deviation, like 50-60 BB/h IIRC. He's not even getting those 80:20 all in spots nearly as much as you, so of course he doesn't have the chance to lose them. It's a bit annoying when claims are made that no good player should ever experience 10 BI downswings, but it's not surprising at all that he hasn't experienced them himself, and may not for a long time.
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Old 06-04-2017, 06:00 PM   #18946
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You're not really considering the effect of different playing styles and game conditions on downswings. Using Mike as an example, it seems unbelievable that he has only had two >= 6 BI downswings in the time he's played so far, but he reports an absurdly low standard deviation, like 50-60 BB/h IIRC. He's not even getting those 80:20 all in spots nearly as much as you, so of course he doesn't have the chance to lose them. It's a bit annoying when claims are made that no good player should ever experience 10 BI downswings, but it's not surprising at all that he hasn't experienced them himself, and may not for a long time.
Just checked. My StnDev right now over all is 52.6BB/hr.

Its actually down to 48.4 in 2017.

Im sure I play more pot control than most other good players so that accounts for most of my low variance. But my position is, if I can still win at a nice rate by playing low variance, why wouldnt I?
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Old 06-04-2017, 06:07 PM   #18947
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Warning: Not using the names of the players you are referring to does not mean that you are free to slag them ITT. Nothing has quite crossed the line yet, but it's getting very close to the sort of pissing contest that made us shut this thread down before and only bring it back with strict rules.

I am sincerly not sure if this is aimed at me or others: but let me clarify that i am honestly not referring to spesific posters or spesific players at this forum in my recent posts ITT.

My posts are written for the most part as a general thoughts on this topics from my years of playing, and with many players from my regular playerpool in my mind that i log countless hours with from month to month.
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Old 06-04-2017, 07:56 PM   #18948
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Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times. Everyone that posts they have never had these bad downswings are the sunrunners who are the lucky ones running well over expectation. I imagine there are a lot of them on a forum like this, as they have self selected themselves as "great" players.

Like I've posted before, I've lost more buyins as an 80/20 favorite in one down than a lot of these luckboxes have lost in their biggest "downswing".
+100000000000

You are in a for a very rude awakening if you think 1000 hours of running hot proves anything. I have played roughly 10000 hours of poker, with about 4000 of those hours at $5/10 NL and higher. My lifetime profit from cash games is in the high 6-figures and I have supported myself purely from poker for a decade, so I am not a "marginal winner" that you sunrunners are making fun of.

That being said, do any of you who have never had a downswing (800bb is not a downswing, I've had sessions worse than that) know what it's like to routinely lose 80/20's for 400BB pots, and to constantly run overpairs into sets in 3bet/4bet pots? To have most of your flopped sets run out 4-liners or 4-flushes by the river? To brick like 80% of your flopped straight flush draws or combo draws in big pots? How about when fish just keep hitting whatever cards they need, but then magically never have anything when you make the nuts? I could go on and on but I think I'm making my point here already. Now imagine a combination of these things happening, for MONTHS straight. Don't think it can happen? Well you are wrong, because mathematically it is a certainty that it will happen to some people, and if you play long enough, it will probably happen to you too.

Think you play well enough that you are immune to run bad? LOL that's hilarious, have a session where you lose two 400bb pots and then tell me how easy it is to win for the session. Then multiply that by 20...

BTW, if it sounds like I am complaining about myself, I am not. I am just stating the things that can happen, and DO happen to people, including myself at times. I have had months where I had fish constantly handing me stacks and I couldn't lose, and I have had months and years where I couldn't do anything to win. My biggest downswing came at a time when I was putting in the most work away from the table to work on my game and to improve my play, so don't be delusional and think that if you just play well you are guaranteed to win.

<mudslinging scrubbed>

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Old 06-04-2017, 08:47 PM   #18949
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+100000000000

You are in a for a very rude awakening if you think 1000 hours of running hot proves anything. I have played roughly 10000 hours of poker, with about 4000 of those hours at $5/10 NL and higher. My lifetime profit from cash games is in the high 6-figures and I have supported myself purely from poker for a decade, so I am not a "marginal winner" that you sunrunners are making fun of.

That being said, do any of you who have never had a downswing (800bb is not a downswing, I've had sessions worse than that) know what it's like to routinely lose 80/20's for 400BB pots, and to constantly run overpairs into sets in 3bet/4bet pots? To have most of your flopped sets run out 4-liners or 4-flushes by the river? To brick like 80% of your flopped straight flush draws or combo draws in big pots? How about when fish just keep hitting whatever cards they need, but then magically never have anything when you make the nuts? I could go on and on but I think I'm making my point here already. Now imagine a combination of these things happening, for MONTHS straight. Don't think it can happen? Well you are wrong, because mathematically it is a certainty that it will happen to some people, and if you play long enough, it will probably happen to you too.

Think you play well enough that you are immune to run bad? LOL that's hilarious, have a session where you lose two 400bb pots and then tell me how easy it is to win for the session. Then multiply that by 20...

BTW, if it sounds like I am complaining about myself, I am not. I am just stating the things that can happen, and DO happen to people, including myself at times. I have had months where I had fish constantly handing me stacks and I couldn't lose, and I have had months and years where I couldn't do anything to win. My biggest downswing came at a time when I was putting in the most work away from the table to work on my game and to improve my play, so don't be delusional and think that if you just play well you are guaranteed to win.

<mudslinging scrubbed>
There are clearly many different type games that we all play in. Ive been in a grand total of 1 400BB pot in my entire live career that totals about 2200 hrs since I started playing full time and maybe 3-500 sporadic part time hours before that.

Im sure that very good players that play in deep games can easily have much bigger downswings than Ive had. On the same note though, those same very good players should have much higher win rates if they are playing in deep games and have a huge edge. If they arent winning at rates over 8-10BBs when playing deep, then they may not be all that great.

An 8-10BB win rate in 100BB capped game is very very difficult to achieve. It should be easier in deep games even though variance is also clearly higher.
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Old 06-04-2017, 09:00 PM   #18950
SABR42
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I mean tbh I kinda get what the other side is saying too.

If you are having a huge downswing at lower stakes, it's probably not ALL variance, just because if you are playing $2/5 you are probably still doing a lot of things that are bad but you don't know are bad. The player pool is bad enough that you can win despite having these leaks. So when you are having a downswing, perhaps some of that is due to bad play stemming from tilt or a lack of fundamentals, which I agree with.

However, I can guarantee that the people running hot at $2/5 are also not nearly as good as they think, and have a lot of leaks that are simply not being punished because the player pool isn't good enough to do that.
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