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Old 06-02-2017, 12:35 AM   #18901
pocketzeroes
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Sample's still a bit small since I started logging...
For 2/5 only - 34 winning, 17 losing (67%). 7 hour 5 min avg. ~$1400 BI including reloads (I often top off a few hundred when I'm down; I seem to start too many sessions in the hole, but nonetheless end with a winning session).
Also, currently running at 14BBs ($69.86)/hour over this sample (361 hours). My variance is pretty high though at $597 Std dev/hour. Winrate $/hour similar for other games combined over 60 hours (including other NLHE stakes and some PLO).
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Old 06-02-2017, 08:30 AM   #18902
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I was hoping to book one more session in May but that didn't happen. I'll take another + month for 5 straight! I don't have a fancy giraffe like you guys, but numbers are numbers.

May: 94.68 hours for +$4136 (included a -$3200 swing yuck)
YTD: 587 hours for +$21138

That puts me in the 7-9 BB per hour range. Mostly $2/5 with some $1/2 and $5/10 sprinkled in. I think I've run +EV so far this year, so I'm only cautiously optimistic.
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Old 06-02-2017, 09:03 AM   #18903
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I avg about 130 hrs / month but played more in May due to having nothing much going on family wise.

149.5 hrs
+$6115

I had my 2nd worst downswing ever which was -$3000. About 1/2 of that was sub par overaggro play and the other 1/2 coolers, missing every flop ect. It quickly turned around though.
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Old 06-02-2017, 02:29 PM   #18904
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I avg about 130 hrs / month but played more in May due to having nothing much going on family wise.

149.5 hrs
+$6115

I had my 2nd worst downswing ever which was -$3000. About 1/2 of that was sub par overaggro play and the other 1/2 coolers, missing every flop ect. It quickly turned around though.
Solid month
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Old 06-02-2017, 02:36 PM   #18905
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I avg about 130 hrs / month but played more in May due to having nothing much going on family wise.

149.5 hrs
+$6115

I had my 2nd worst downswing ever which was -$3000. About 1/2 of that was sub par overaggro play and the other 1/2 coolers, missing every flop ect. It quickly turned around though.


i miss that buffet, in a couple of ways
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Old 06-02-2017, 03:26 PM   #18906
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I avg about 130 hrs / month but played more in May due to having nothing much going on family wise.

149.5 hrs
+$6115

I had my 2nd worst downswing ever which was -$3000. About 1/2 of that was sub par overaggro play and the other 1/2 coolers, missing every flop ect. It quickly turned around though.
This is not a downswing.
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Old 06-02-2017, 03:41 PM   #18907
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Is a downswing classified as how much you're down from your highest bankroll point? Or is it only consecutive losing sessions? i.e. Say you went from $2,000 to $4,000 with winning and losing sessions mixed in, is that a 2k upswing? And if you then went from that $4,000 high point down to $2,500, with winning and losing sessions mixed in, that would be a $1,500 downswing even though you're still up $500 net?
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Old 06-02-2017, 03:46 PM   #18908
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Is a downswing classified as how much you're down from your highest bankroll point? Or is it only consecutive losing sessions? i.e. Say you went from $2,000 to $4,000 with winning and losing sessions mixed in, is that a 2k upswing? And if you then went from that $4,000 high point down to $2,500, with winning and losing sessions mixed in, that would be a $1,500 downswing?
Yeah, I'd call an upswing going from some local minima to a maximum (i.e., the last session before an upswing starts was a losing session)... And a downswing going from a maximum to a local minima (the session after a downswing ends is a winning session, and we never get to the low point again)...

So yes, both can have winning and losing sessions.
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Old 06-02-2017, 04:34 PM   #18909
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i miss that buffet, in a couple of ways
Best "non Vegas" buffet Ive ever had. Not sure what the other way is though.
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Old 06-02-2017, 05:35 PM   #18910
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Mike, you play 2/5 and you're saying that 600b is the 2nd largest downswing you've ever had?

That seems.. unrealistic.
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Old 06-02-2017, 05:37 PM   #18911
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Best "non Vegas" buffet Ive ever had. Not sure what the other way is though.


the 2/5 lineups here are more like a prison cafeteria than a buffet
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Old 06-02-2017, 05:57 PM   #18912
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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Mike, you play 2/5 and you're saying that 600b is the 2nd largest downswing you've ever had?

That seems.. unrealistic.
I've only had two downswings greater than ~600bbs in 1/3 NL in 3420.5 hours (and I think about 3 more that hovered around ~500bbs), and it took me about ~1800 hours to have the first of those. Course I'm guessing I play in a smaller BI game (maybe?) and probably play a nittier low variance style.

Gnotimpossible,imoG
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Old 06-02-2017, 06:04 PM   #18913
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I've only had two downswings greater than ~600bbs in 1/3 NL in 3420.5 hours (and I think about 3 more that hovered around ~500bbs), and it took me about ~1800 hours to have the first of those. Course I'm guessing I play in a smaller BI game (maybe?) and probably play a nittier low variance style.

Gnotimpossible,imoG
How many buy ins do you bring with you? And do you top up your stack ever or do you only rebuy when busted? My 1/3 game, the max buy is $500, and right now I've just been bringing 1 bullet until I feel comfortable enough in potentially losing 2 full-buy in bullets in 1 session.
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Old 06-02-2017, 06:17 PM   #18914
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^^^^

My 1/3 NL game has a max BI of $300 (100bbs). I constantly top off after every hand (I never start a hand < $296). I bring $2K (not that I would ever need it) cuz I'm typically just there to a set time (i.e. 9:30pm) and I don't want to run out of bullets. I've only left early twice (once where I tilted off my final 2 BIs and blew my whole $1.2K, to date still my biggest loss, and once where I wasn't feeling it mentally after being felted multiple times by a maniac having gotten it in preflop for big $$$ each time).

GcluelessBInoobG
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Old 06-02-2017, 06:36 PM   #18915
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My biggest downswing for 2/5 is $6K... $2K was from a $1k max buyin game though fwiw.
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Old 06-02-2017, 06:40 PM   #18916
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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Mike, you play 2/5 and you're saying that 600b is the 2nd largest downswing you've ever had?

That seems.. unrealistic.
I think Mike tries to play a very exploitable style. (a style that 95% or more of the player pool won't know how to exploit) That's also probably the only way to get a 70%+ cash rate over a decent sample.

Has to be a nice combination of big folds, funky value, and checking.
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Old 06-02-2017, 07:36 PM   #18917
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My assumption has been, for a long time, that once you get past a certain winrate at a certain game, any increase in winrate will come with an increase in variance (taking thinner calling/betting/raising lines). And therefore, the players with the highest winrates are likely to have some of the biggest downswings. Maybe I'm wrong about this though.

Back when I played full-time, I had a couple of ~10-12k downswings playing mostly 2/5 200BB BI games (occasionally 5/10 if it ran). I played like a complete nut though; I bluffed off my stack many a time, and likewise got paid off huge in spots where nobody else got paid (i.e., by the regs, even nittish regs - not only by the whales). And despite some ugly downswings, I completely crushed the games I played... However it's not always clear when you cross the line from being a good aggro player to being a spewtard. Some of my sessions were probably very much -EV spewtard sessions.

Last edited by pocketzeroes; 06-02-2017 at 07:41 PM.
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Old 06-02-2017, 08:04 PM   #18918
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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Mike, you play 2/5 and you're saying that 600b is the 2nd largest downswing you've ever had?

That seems.. unrealistic.
Yes, that's what I'm saying.
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Old 06-02-2017, 08:14 PM   #18919
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've been losing 1-2 all in pots a day with 70%+ equity for about a month. Anything is a possible. That's only a slight exaggeration, usually one day a week I get to hold with the best hand a few times.
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Old 06-02-2017, 08:16 PM   #18920
MikeStarr
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Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
I think Mike tries to play a very exploitable style. (a style that 95% or more of the player pool won't know how to exploit) That's also probably the only way to get a 70%+ cash rate over a decent sample.

Has to be a nice combination of big folds, funky value, and checking.
Im not sure exactly what that means. IMO, everyone plays an exploitable style. Anyone can be exploited if someone studies them enough. Like you said though, 95% of people dont pay enough attention or have the balls to deviate from their own personal strategy to exploit anyone.

I would say your last sentence is somewhat accurate.
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Old 06-02-2017, 08:44 PM   #18921
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Shrug. We must play in very different games. I lost 700bb in 4 hands yesterday in under 45 minutes. Obv lol variance, I got it in >70% to win all 4, but people must just stack off lighter here.
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Old 06-02-2017, 08:46 PM   #18922
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Im not sure exactly what that means. IMO, everyone plays an exploitable style. Anyone can be exploited if someone studies them enough. Like you said though, 95% of people dont pay enough attention or have the balls to deviate from their own personal strategy to exploit anyone.

I would say your last sentence is somewhat accurate.
Meaning you are consciously deviating far away from general GTO strat to attack or defend against the overall opponents you play against.

For example I play an overall overfold and overbluff strategy for 2/5. A very good player that's good at hand reading and pattern recognition would tear that strat apart... but I wouldn't play like that vs those who I think are good.
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Old 06-02-2017, 08:50 PM   #18923
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Shrug. We must play in very different games. I lost 700bb in 4 hands yesterday in under 45 minutes. Obv lol variance, I got it in >70% to win all 4, but people must just stack off lighter here.
That's crazy. At Borgata with 100bb cap?
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Old 06-02-2017, 08:54 PM   #18924
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That's crazy. At Borgata with 100bb cap?
Nah.
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Old 06-02-2017, 08:58 PM   #18925
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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Shrug. We must play in very different games. I lost 700bb in 4 hands yesterday in under 45 minutes. Obv lol variance, I got it in >70% to win all 4, but people must just stack off lighter here.
You really can run way below (or way above) EV for a long time in live poker. Especially when people are getting it in a lot and getting to see all 5 cards.
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