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Old 05-24-2017, 12:58 PM   #18801
Rhombo
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So far so good, I just suck at putting in the proper time. 75% 1/2, 25% 2/4, and a couple 1/3. Probably won a couple k before I started recording stats.

Spoiler:
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Old 05-24-2017, 01:06 PM   #18802
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That is one ugly graph. Why the hell is it in 3D?

Not bad results for a small 200 hour sample though.
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Old 05-24-2017, 01:23 PM   #18803
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Finally fired up my actual analysis scripts (Matlab junkie due to work) to look at my recent results in detail.

Year has been pretty marginal so far with a big old +$377.50 over 246.6 hours. Total waste of time.

But then I starting splitting things apart and feel a little better.

+$1212.5 over 158.6 hours playing $1/2 NLHE. Only $7.65/hr, but I did have two annoying -$500 sessions in there where every big pot went the wrong way.

-$835 over 88.4 hours playing "other" games, which is mostly RxR or straight PLO.

LOL sample sizes for both but the NLHE is at least in line with the last 1000 or so hours (bit lower), and my overall trend for about 650 hours of assorted "other" games is also pretty negative. Really wish my local home games would play more NLHE and less RxR as it's much more convenient than driving to a casino.
Thank you for posting stuff like this. Seriously. It's helpful to people who are bombarded with confirmation bias.

Personally I'm not sure I can beat 2/5 anymore. It was a good run I guess.
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Old 05-24-2017, 01:29 PM   #18804
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Personally I'm not sure I can beat 2/5 anymore.
There are often times I'll be sitting at my 1/3 NL table and ask myself whether I think I can outrun the rake at this table. Sometimes my answer is no, and so I'll just uber nit it up until I can get a table change or the table improves / a spot or two is introduced.

Gsuchafinelinebetweenwinningandlosing,imoG
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Old 05-24-2017, 01:45 PM   #18805
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Thank you for posting stuff like this. Seriously. It's helpful to people who are bombarded with confirmation bias.

Personally I'm not sure I can beat 2/5 anymore. It was a good run I guess.
Yea. It's the engineer that values more data over "correct" data I guess.

I'm fairly sure that I just still suck at PLO. Particularly in marginal spots when the game is juicy and I'm not sure how wide I should be opening or calling. I'm also really under-rolled for it and shy away from repeatedly shoveling money into the pot in near coin flip situations. That and just from watching the game play out around me, I'm pretty sure that the sample size needed to determine your real ability in a PLO game is significantly larger than NLHE ... and I'm no where near that.

My $1/2 NLHE results are closer to $15/hr over the last 2k hours of so and fairly respectable IMO. Especially having played for about 2 years or so on a perpetually short roll due to life constraints requiring 'poker' money.
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Old 05-24-2017, 05:10 PM   #18806
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Thank you for posting stuff like this. Seriously. It's helpful to people who are bombarded with confirmation bias.

Personally I'm not sure I can beat 2/5 anymore. It was a good run I guess.
Is this because you feel your games have gotten a lot tougher or just general run bad?
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Old 05-24-2017, 05:26 PM   #18807
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Is this because you feel your games have gotten a lot tougher or just general run bad?
I've spoken on this alot but as someone who has played Florida poker since 2011, games have gotten "more educated"

I don't really want to use the word "tougher" because below 5/10 (which i rarely play) I am never really put in challenging spots (but plenty of ******ed spots, which are rarely discussed on here and should be our key focus imo)

So like in 2011 if someone flopped top pair any kicker you were guaranteed stacking them. People only 3bet QQ+. They used horrendous sizing in any bet they made.

There were also more action/whale players...I recall villains playing blind being a somewhat normal occurrence, whereas these days it would really be something.

The higher stakes games have definitely dried up / become more challenging. There are kids that have a clue and even if they don't they are less afraid of clicking buttons, which is still hard to play against. The action guys moved on to the next shiny thing.

So yea, people are "less bad". I wouldn't call it tougher but at the end of the day my win rate in 2011 will never be reached again imo, and I didn't have a clue then.

I think my downswing (pretty bad) is a combination of experimentation (smaller sizing, wider range), not adjusting correctly to very good games in a new market (huge multiway pots, no fold equity), actual run bad (I've glimpsed the abyss), and entitlement tilt.
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Old 05-24-2017, 05:30 PM   #18808
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The action guys moved on to the next shiny thing.
Probably $2/5 PLO if my market is any indication.
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Old 05-24-2017, 05:54 PM   #18809
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There are some really great giraffes in this thread. Figured I'd knock the average quality down a few pegs. Here are my lifetime live cash results starting from late 2013. 72% 1-3, 27% 1-2, 1% 2-5. 1-3 and 1-2 are both $100-$300. I play basically exclusively on Friday nights and Saturday nights.





The harshest downswing in this history was a 130 hour stretch losing $4,500 to close out 2016. I'm (hopefully) just about out of a 500 hour break-even stretch. I have no illusions that I was playing optimally during that stretch.

I'm not sure if I've been winning more this year because I've been spending more time on the game away from the table, or if I've been spending more time on the game away from the table because I've been winning. Probably a little bit of both.
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Old 05-24-2017, 06:00 PM   #18810
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^^^^

Congrats on the overall results, imo (which likely puts you in the very few percentile within your room).

GgoodluckG
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Old 05-24-2017, 06:02 PM   #18811
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Your graph looks exactly like mine fwiw. Your 1200-1600 stretch is my 1500-2000. I also play way less poker when I'm winning.
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Old 05-24-2017, 06:18 PM   #18812
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I will never have meaningful PLo stats. It doesn't help that my short term results have been terrible. I'm not good enough yet to be able to tell if I made a good or bad play vs. a PLO range or if it was just good or bad vs. a specific tabled hand. I've got the rest of the summer to consider it. I likely won't get many hours in for a while.
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Old 05-24-2017, 08:21 PM   #18813
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
I've spoken on this alot but as someone who has played Florida poker since 2011, games have gotten "more educated"

I don't really want to use the word "tougher" because below 5/10 (which i rarely play) I am never really put in challenging spots (but plenty of ******ed spots, which are rarely discussed on here and should be our key focus imo)

So like in 2011 if someone flopped top pair any kicker you were guaranteed stacking them. People only 3bet QQ+. They used horrendous sizing in any bet they made.

There were also more action/whale players...I recall villains playing blind being a somewhat normal occurrence, whereas these days it would really be something.

The higher stakes games have definitely dried up / become more challenging. There are kids that have a clue and even if they don't they are less afraid of clicking buttons, which is still hard to play against. The action guys moved on to the next shiny thing.

So yea, people are "less bad". I wouldn't call it tougher but at the end of the day my win rate in 2011 will never be reached again imo, and I didn't have a clue then.

I think my downswing (pretty bad) is a combination of experimentation (smaller sizing, wider range), not adjusting correctly to very good games in a new market (huge multiway pots, no fold equity), actual run bad (I've glimpsed the abyss), and entitlement tilt.
I agree the average live 2/5 player is a lot worse than they used to be, but back then I was a lot worse than I am now. That being said, I haven't sat in a 2/5 game in the past year where I didn't feel I was the best, or at least second best (possibly grossly incorrectly assuming that) player at the table. Definitely a lot of edge out there in the 2/5 games I play in.
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Old 05-25-2017, 10:44 AM   #18814
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Not saying this is you, but just about everyone at the table considers themselves one of the best players at the table. I've found the more I've learned about the game, the more I realize I probably am not nearly as good as I think I am.
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Old 05-25-2017, 01:18 PM   #18815
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FWIW since I've left sfla I've basically never seen anyone good but imo it's a mental leak to be thinking this way. I mean reading that sentence I had to think bc I just never think like that in a poker room and I had to look back on my last 6 months and think "was I generally the best player at my table?" But I mean who cares. All I'm thinking about each session is which table has the best lineup and I'm never curious if someone is better than me or not. I just dont have the energy to care.

The very best player I've played with was in sfla. I wasn't concerned with being better than him or outplaying him. I was concerned with learning his very unorthodox approach to live poker. I want to make money. My ego can be absorbed with other things, for example my unmatched fishing skills and my incredibly good looks.
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Old 05-25-2017, 01:29 PM   #18816
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Many people never encounter a situation where they are clearly the worst person at a given task. Then when you plop them at a poker table where they can't actually see what other players are really doing, and RNGesus bails them out in a big pot or two, they're suddenly crushers.

I know there are some players I run into that are better than I am in general, or better at a specific game (PLO). But even when I look around and think that I'm probably the best *overall* player at a given table, there are still players that are better at different parts of the game that I can learn from by observing them. But at the end of the day it doesn't really matter as you're stuck adjusting to the lineup you have.


One thing to note about the quality of games changing over time is that there's an inherent selection bias in players that stick around. The super bad spewtard will eventually either run out of money and quit, or figure out how to spew a little less. The ones with unlimited pockets are rare and likely to lose interest. So as those really bad players drop out, the overall skill level of the game rises if the influx of new bad players is slow (which I think it has been in the last 4-5 years). The same holds for just normally bad players, it just takes longer.
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Old 05-25-2017, 02:12 PM   #18817
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I may come off as arrogant with this, but its just the way it is. The more i play the more i realize how few leaks i have compared to my villains, and how much i know about relevant pokerknowledge compared to them. Not to mention the ability to adjust, and exploit the live game setting for each individual villain alongside the constantly ongoing dynamics each game. And it shows in my winrate also, been crushing for the last 1000 hours at 12 BB hour steady rate. My longtime dream is to play fulltime on the westcoast, either Las Vegas or LA (or a mix of both), and i am closer to achieving that dream than ever before as my roll have been growing steadily.

Its not very strange either as most of my opponents never work on their game seriously. They watch a Doug Polk video here and there or a session from Pokernight in America, but thats it. They have mental leaks, they tilt off buyins, they get bored and make light stackoffs they shoudnt and so on.

I have a couple of good friends who are also solid winning players (in the same games i sit in) wich i routinely debate with about spesific hands,strategy approaches and ways to exploit certain players- and i cant state how important that is for honing your game. You can have blindspots kind of leaks that you arent really aware of, that other players can help you to be aware of- so you in the next chapter are able to work on those leaks. If you have leaks/sweet spots/weak links you dont know about, you certainly arent in a position to fix it either.You just cant fix a problem you dont know excist. This is a huge trap i see for many players, really huge.
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Old 05-25-2017, 02:44 PM   #18818
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Petrucci - you don't sound arrogant, just accurately assessing your relative skill level.

You are lucky to have good friends who are also good players. I know no-one who plays poker and have struggled to slowly improve my game through reading books and this forum. Lacking honest feedback from others means I've definitely taken ages to discover and fix leaks.

I think it also affects your confidence. You get a boost talking to poker playing friends. I just get concerned looks from my friends and actually expend mental energy justifying the time I spend on poker.

I'm hoping playing more regularly and making friends with some good players will help.
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Old 05-25-2017, 02:55 PM   #18819
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Petrucci - you don't sound arrogant, just accurately assessing your relative skill level.

You are lucky to have good friends who are also good players. I know no-one who plays poker and have struggled to slowly improve my game through reading books and this forum. Lacking honest feedback from others means I've definitely taken ages to discover and fix leaks.

I think it also affects your confidence. You get a boost talking to poker playing friends. I just get concerned looks from my friends and actually expend mental energy justifying the time I spend on poker.

I'm hoping playing more regularly and making friends with some good players will help.
Thanks, good to know it didnt sound that crazy or out of the ballpark in terms of arrogance

Look, when i started out on the livescene i didnt have any others to discuss strategy with either. I took a chance when i got invited to a homegame after playing online for 3 years or so, i didnt knew anybody there and i remember i was frightend as hell. Guys sitting on huge stacks of like 2000$ playing huge pots left and right- in a 1-1 game, and i bought in for like 150$ just trying to get my feet wet. Lol talk about Bambi on thin ice.

I did one very smart thing though during that start, wich i also would advice other people in your situation to do: i identified who the 2-3 of the best players in the game was, and then i tried to suck up as much knowledge/tips/tricks from them as i possibly could. Like i tried to observe at the table what they did in terms to be big winners in the game, and after that i tried to incorporate the best bits and pieces of their game into my own game. If i had questions for them i simply asked them after game in a friendly manner, or when they had a smoking break on the balcony. If you ask with a respectful curious manner and is able to listen, its my experience that nearly every good winning player is willing to give you fantastic free advice or food for thought.

If you have that approach chances are you will be building a network of people you know in the community, and maybe on long term develope friendships with some of them.

Just my few cents on the topic man.
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Old 05-25-2017, 03:07 PM   #18820
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Thanks, I'm just starting to make more of an effort socially at the casino but this has encouraged me that it is really worthwhile.
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Old 05-25-2017, 03:24 PM   #18821
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Thanks, I'm just starting to make more of an effort socially at the casino but this has encouraged me that it is really worthwhile.

Just go for it yeah, i guarantee you that its worthwhile- on so many levels. So many players cant ever swallow their pride, they let their ego block the path of developing their game to the next level.

If you cant identify and aknowledge other good winners in the game, its hard to imagine what that kind of player looks like right. Its good training just to being able to spot out the big crushers, the majority of players in a given room have so so many false assumptions about who the longterm winning players really is.

A big turning point for me was when one of the very good aggro LAGs in the game had beaten me in a huge pot, and i felt really owned after the pot got pushed to him. I felt that he was able to put me on my exact two cards. You know the feeling you can get if you lose a big pot,wich the hand got you to doubt yourself or feel insecure about your own abilities. That is a sign your touching a nerve right. The guy won my money that evening- but i managed to exchange it in knowledge money cant buy when i discussed the hand with him afterwards, and he gave me some pointers on how he owned me in that particular hand, what areas of my game i should work on- that kind of stuff.
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Old 05-25-2017, 03:42 PM   #18822
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So I had my first really terrible session live yesterday.

I'd won £2650 over 86 hours buying in at 40-70bb. I went into yesterday's session buying in at 100bb and trying to play a little more aggressively/looser to try to win a little faster. Trouble is missed a lot of flops, had to fold a lot of hands postflop, missed draws and just basically got owned!

I finished £700 (3.5buy ins) down in 10hrs while I only won £650 over the previous 20hrs.

Now I realise I made a few mistakes in this horrible session but overall I did as well as I could with the cards I was dealt. What I've realised is that, because I'm trying to win a roll, I had previously quit easier sessions in order to not have > 10% of my roll in play. I'd also been over cautious in order to prevent possible losses and thereby failed to win maximum value when it was available.

Towards the end of this hortible session a good pro player said I struggled because my 100bb stack was so small compared to the 300-400bb stacks most of the regs had. He said I had little fold equity pre or post because all the deepstack were desperate to get in the pot against each other. Last week they changed the rules so you can buy in to match the deepest stack. Within an hour or two of tables starting everyone has 300bb+.

Naturally this lack of fold equity would be great if I had actually hit any hands but missing all night just drained buy in after buy in.

I should add that although I had weak players to my right I had 3 and then 4 solid regs (better than me anyway!) to my left all session.

So I don't know where to go with buy in amounts now. I feel like my smaller buy ins and cautious style previously netted me minimum wins when I was running good. Those wins don't look like they are enough to cover my losses when I run bad.

I notice earlier Petrucci you recommended 70bb for building a roll. Do you think that would work in my super deepstack game? Should I stick to cashing out above 10% of roll on table (which I think limited my wins previously)? Should I consider just buying in deep and if I bust out so be it, I just have to come back to poker when I save some more money?

Also am I over worrying about one bad session? In my now 96 hours I've been down mid session £300 twice, £500 once but only posted 3 losing sessions at -£90, -£20 and - £2. This £700 loss feels massive to me but maybe it's not a big deal?
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Old 05-25-2017, 03:44 PM   #18823
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Being friendly at the tables can get you invited to home games which is great for your winrate when the players are bad, and great for your poker network if they're decent and you can talk about the game/hands with them.

It's also good because it can get the fishy players to softplay you because they like you, or give you free information.


Beyond all the winrate benefits of being sociable at the table, you meet a lot of really interesting people from different walks of life at a poker table. I know mechanics, jewelers, ticket hustlers, lawyers, drug dealers, and I'm pretty sure a guy that would 'disappear' someone if I needed it.
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Old 05-25-2017, 03:48 PM   #18824
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Here's my graph of the last 6 or so years of live play, not many hours and half were in the last year or so (running hot makes it easy to play a lot)

Mostly 2/5, some 1/3 and 5/10 NLH, some 1/2 and 5/5 PLO
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Old 05-25-2017, 03:51 PM   #18825
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Yeah I know that feeling of good LAGs being one step ahead of you. That's my other worry, I'm definitely outclassed by a few of the regs in my game. I fear being in pots with them deepstacked and they know it.

They got their skills through experience. I'm too under rolled to feel confident playing deep against the regs but need a big stack to take advantage of the fish and to build experience. Catch-22: I need a bigger roll to play well and improve so i can win long term but I can't get a bigger roll without winning it!
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