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Old 05-10-2017, 12:16 PM   #18676
whereisit
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
+1

I think I would nit it up to the extreme
Who would have guessed?
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Old 05-10-2017, 02:56 PM   #18677
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The people that can't wrap their head around large downswings are likely the ones playing in tighter games with smaller buy-in structures. I'm looking at Mike and gobbledy here.

When your game dynamic regularly sees all-ins at 50/50, 60/40 and 70/30 splits for well over 100 BB's then it's not hard to imagine how a nasty downswing occurs.
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Old 05-10-2017, 03:00 PM   #18678
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I've lost 5 buyins in one orbit and gotten it in as the favorite on every single one of them. Short term luck (and long term for some outliers) can be very very far both above and below expectation.

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Old 05-10-2017, 03:12 PM   #18679
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
The people that can't wrap their head around large downswings are likely the ones playing in tighter games with smaller buy-in structures. I'm looking at Mike and gobbledy here.

When your game dynamic regularly sees all-ins at 50/50, 60/40 and 70/30 splits for well over 100 BB's then it's not hard to imagine how a nasty downswing occurs.
Yeah, I probably should have stated that game conditions obviously have a huge affect on downswings, and I have no idea what type of game Shuffle plays in. If he's playing in a 100bb max BI game like I am where 300bb stacks go in exactly never, then it's a pretty out there downswing, but again, I've fully admitted that if you play enough hours it's probably entirely possible (and obviously moreso if you are playing in deeper / action games).

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Old 05-10-2017, 03:25 PM   #18680
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I ran JJ<A9s today for 50bb. F*ck poker. Taking two weeks off.

I now have 25.5 BI
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Old 05-10-2017, 03:44 PM   #18681
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I ran JJ<A9s today for 50bb. F*ck poker. Taking two weeks off.

I now have 25.5 BI
Even if you go on a 25 BI downswing, you still have a 0.5 BI left to keep you in the game, nice nice.

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Old 05-10-2017, 04:01 PM   #18682
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
The people that can't wrap their head around large downswings are likely the ones playing in tighter games with smaller buy-in structures. I'm looking at Mike and gobbledy here.

When your game dynamic regularly sees all-ins at 50/50, 60/40 and 70/30 splits for well over 100 BB's then it's not hard to imagine how a nasty downswing occurs.


I know your post wasnt directly headed against me Johnny, but from my experience and also my honest opinion: 20+ buyin downswings seems to be incredibly rare in live low stakes poker from proven long term winning players. Ive played in alot of different conditions and logged plenty of hours both in homegames,underground games,private games and casinos. 100 BB cap games, and very deepstacked games where 1000 BB pots happens several times each game.

GG says his biggest downswing is like 10 buyins or less for more than 3K hours played. I have logged more than 2K hours and havent had a downswing bigger than 8 buyins. My friend i often play with have logged over 2K hours and havent had a downswing bigger than around 6 buyins.

Like, i am not saying it coudnt happen even when playing your A-game for all of those 20+ buyins. But what i am saying is simply that if this sort of downswing happening to you, that should set off some alarmbells when it comes to examining your own game- wich regarding to what i said about blind spots earlier should include other pros/proven winners to review some of your biggest hands and stackoff spots at the very least.
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Old 05-10-2017, 04:10 PM   #18683
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Just curious what people mean exactly when they say a 5 or 10 buyin downswing... What's an N buyin downswing for somebody playing in 200+BB max BI games, where they always buyin for the max?

Do you 1/2 players always consider an N buying downswing to mean (N) 100BB buyins, or 150BB buyins or what? What about 2/5 players - if you play a 200BB buyin game, is a 10 BI downswing 10k or is it only 5k?

Going on a 10K downswing at 2/5 if you're a good somewhat laggy player and always buyin for max 200BBs - not really all that uncommon. 15K would be pretty terrible runbad, but still very possible... Obviously it helps if you know how to manage your variance (and play in ways to reduce it when a downswing begins), but if you're sufficiently rolled you get past the point of trying hard to manage/reduce variance.

Last edited by pocketzeroes; 05-10-2017 at 04:17 PM.
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Old 05-10-2017, 04:16 PM   #18684
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Originally Posted by pocketzeroes View Post
Just curious what people mean exactly when they say a 5 or 10 buyin downswing... What's an N buyin downswing for somebody playing in 200+BB max BI games, where they always buyin for the max?

Do you 1/2 players always consider an N buying downswing to mean (N) 100BB buyins, or 150BB buyins or what? What about 2/5 players - if you play a 200BB buyin game, is a 10 BI downswing 10k or is it only 5k?

I usually buy in for 100 BB each time, so my definition of a downswing is how many of those 100 BB buyins i lose in a row over x period of time.

Some people use the actual dollars amount when they are talking about downswings, so good question cause its important to know we are discussing the same thing.
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Old 05-10-2017, 04:21 PM   #18685
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Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
I usually buy in for 100 BB each time, so my definition of a downswing is how many of those 100 BB buyins i lose in a row over x period of time.

Some people use the actual dollars amount when they are talking about downswings, so good question cause its important to know we are discussing the same thing.
A downswing should be considered from max bankroll to lowest point after reaching your max IMO, not just a losing streak... So if I lose 1k, win 500, lose 1k, win 500, lose 1k... that's a 2k downswing.
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Old 05-10-2017, 04:24 PM   #18686
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Originally Posted by pocketzeroes View Post
A downswing should be considered from max bankroll to lowest point after reaching your max IMO, not just a losing streak... So if I lose 1k, win 500, lose 1k, win 500, lose 1k... that's a 2k downswing.

Exactly, i mixed it up there- sitting here with a flue/headache and rambling We are on the same page though.
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Old 05-10-2017, 04:24 PM   #18687
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Converting to BB's would clear up any inconsistency.
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Old 05-10-2017, 04:31 PM   #18688
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Converting to BB's would clear up any inconsistency.
this.

my game is a $1k max. sometimes i buy-in full. sometimes i buy in for 100bb and top off as required.

since not all games are 100bb capped, converting to overall bb is a better measure imo.
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Old 05-10-2017, 05:01 PM   #18689
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Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
I know your post wasnt directly headed against me Johnny, but from my experience and also my honest opinion: 20+ buyin downswings seems to be incredibly rare in live low stakes poker from proven long term winning players. Ive played in alot of different conditions and logged plenty of hours both in homegames,underground games,private games and casinos. 100 BB cap games, and very deepstacked games where 1000 BB pots happens several times each game.

GG says his biggest downswing is like 10 buyins or less for more than 3K hours played. I have logged more than 2K hours and havent had a downswing bigger than 8 buyins. My friend i often play with have logged over 2K hours and havent had a downswing bigger than around 6 buyins.
Well this is kind of my point. Last night I started out a 1/3 session down a quick $1200 (400 BB's) within the first 30 minutes. Was it running bad or playing bad or the grey area in between which makes analyzing a downswing nearly impossible when you try to parse decisions vs. a player's range vs. their actual holding.

My second hand at the table: $485 effective (1/3) - limp, super lucky guy who just hit the bad beat opens for $15 LP, LAG losing reg I have history with calls BTN, I 3! AA to $70 from the SB, limpers fold and other two call. Flop ($210) TT2, SPR is ~2x. I am pot committed. I cbet $105, fold, LAG raises to $250 and I jam knowing he likes to raise paired boards with air, and will raise over pairs and flush draws on this board and I block the two remaining ATs combos while not blocking the A flush draws. He has T9 and holds up. Stuck a quick $500 (167 BB's).

Rebuy $500. Open/call a 3! from the LAG with 99 multiway, miss my set and he shows QQ. Less than an orbit later ($475) I open KQ for $15 in EP, three calls and our LAG bumps it up to $75. BB rec cold calls and I call hoping for a caller or two behind so I can commit on any flop I connect with since the SPR will be so low. Two folds behind and the luckbox bad beat jackpot winner calls on the BTN. Flop ($325) K 8 3. SPR is 1.2x. As good a flop as I can hope for. BB jams for $250. I rejam for $400. Luckbox rejams for $800. PFR LAG folds. Turn 2 River 8. BB shows J7, BTN shows A5 and scoops a ~$1400 pot. Stuck a quick $1000 (333 BB's).

Less than an orbit later the LAG and luckbox badbeat winner GII preflop KK vs. AA, KK opens, AA 3!'s, KK 4!'s, AA shoves $1000 and LAG doesn't think long before calling it off (this is always AA, even in this game, but he's a bad LAG and couldn't resist calling). AA holds up naturally and the luckbox is sitting on a $2500+ stack.

A few hands later 3 people limp and I raise KQo (no clubs) to $25 from the BB. Two callers including our resident big stack. Flop ($75) Q 9 6, I bet $50, lucky charms calls, Turn ($175) 8, I bet $100. Villain calls. River ($375) J. Great now I lose to absolutely everything. I check and villain checks behind AQ and scoops the pot. Stuck a quick $1200 (400 BB's).

So did I play bad or run bad? Hand 1 I had reads on my villain and played against his range and he happened to have one of the nutted combos he could have. But I was pot committed so I was GII regardless.

Hand 2 I GII as a 60/40 favorite and lost.

Hand 3 I was behind the whole way but was playing my hand against the likely range that villain could have and he happened to have better hand (and limped AQ on the BTN rather than raised). I managed to grind out the rest of the night and turned it into a -$100 (33 BB's) loss which is a hell of an outcome after such a horrendous start to the night.

So if over 2000 hours you've never experienced a greater than 6-8 BI (600-800 BB's) downswing and I am already stuck 400 BB's in 30-45 minutes then we must be playing in widly different games or we have vastly different ideas of what a downswing means.
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Old 05-10-2017, 05:22 PM   #18690
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I play in 2 diff 2/5 games regularly.. one is 100bb cap, and I have never had worse then a 400bb downswing. this is only 500 hours sample size, so w/e im sure worse is easily possible but it is VERY soft.

The other is uncapped and buying in for 1.5k-2k is the normal. losing 2k in the first game is like losing 8k in this game..On the other side you have guys, getting it in for 400 bigs with 2pair so winrates can be way bigger. you still need the big bankroll/sanity to deal w it..

Its all relative to your game guys
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Old 05-10-2017, 05:22 PM   #18691
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Well this is kind of my point. Last night I started out a 1/3 session down a quick $1200 (400 BB's) within the first 30 minutes. Was it running bad or playing bad or the grey area in between which makes analyzing a downswing nearly impossible when you try to parse decisions vs. a player's range vs. their actual holding.

My second hand at the table: $485 effective (1/3) - limp, super lucky guy who just hit the bad beat opens for $15 LP, LAG losing reg I have history with calls BTN, I 3! AA to $70 from the SB, limpers fold and other two call. Flop ($210) TT2, SPR is ~2x. I am pot committed. I cbet $105, fold, LAG raises to $250 and I jam knowing he likes to raise paired boards with air, and will raise over pairs and flush draws on this board and I block the two remaining ATs combos while not blocking the A flush draws. He has T9 and holds up. Stuck a quick $500 (167 BB's).

Rebuy $500. Open/call a 3! from the LAG with 99 multiway, miss my set and he shows QQ. Less than an orbit later ($475) I open KQ for $15 in EP, three calls and our LAG bumps it up to $75. BB rec cold calls and I call hoping for a caller or two behind so I can commit on any flop I connect with since the SPR will be so low. Two folds behind and the luckbox bad beat jackpot winner calls on the BTN. Flop ($325) K 8 3. SPR is 1.2x. As good a flop as I can hope for. BB jams for $250. I rejam for $400. Luckbox rejams for $800. PFR LAG folds. Turn 2 River 8. BB shows J7, BTN shows A5 and scoops a ~$1400 pot. Stuck a quick $1000 (333 BB's).

Less than an orbit later the LAG and luckbox badbeat winner GII preflop KK vs. AA, KK opens, AA 3!'s, KK 4!'s, AA shoves $1000 and LAG doesn't think long before calling it off (this is always AA, even in this game, but he's a bad LAG and couldn't resist calling). AA holds up naturally and the luckbox is sitting on a $2500+ stack.

A few hands later 3 people limp and I raise KQo (no clubs) to $25 from the BB. Two callers including our resident big stack. Flop ($75) Q 9 6, I bet $50, lucky charms calls, Turn ($175) 8, I bet $100. Villain calls. River ($375) J. Great now I lose to absolutely everything. I check and villain checks behind AQ and scoops the pot. Stuck a quick $1200 (400 BB's).

So did I play bad or run bad? Hand 1 I had reads on my villain and played against his range and he happened to have one of the nutted combos he could have. But I was pot committed so I was GII regardless.

Hand 2 I GII as a 60/40 favorite and lost.

Hand 3 I was behind the whole way but was playing my hand against the likely range that villain could have and he happened to have better hand (and limped AQ on the BTN rather than raised). I managed to grind out the rest of the night and turned it into a -$100 (33 BB's) loss which is a hell of an outcome after such a horrendous start to the night.

So if over 2000 hours you've never experienced a greater than 6-8 BI (600-800 BB's) downswing and I am already stuck 400 BB's in 30-45 minutes then we must be playing in widly different games or we have vastly different ideas of what a downswing means.
Or we play in different games AND we vastly different styles. Without going into detail since this isnt a strat forum, I would not be playing those hands that way, even though I dont necessarily think you did much wrong depending on your style and your reads.
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Old 05-10-2017, 05:49 PM   #18692
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Or we play in different games AND we vastly different styles. Without going into detail since this isnt a strat forum, I would not be playing those hands that way, even though I dont necessarily think you did much wrong depending on your style and your reads.
+1

Johnny's game looks a lot deeper BI, so swings are going to be deeper.

Add to that his playing style (I only play the AA hand the same way, the others I don't, but I'm not judging that right/wrong either, just sayin'), and yeah, you're gonna swong big (both up and down).

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Old 05-10-2017, 06:00 PM   #18693
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Sure Johnny, i see your point- and i am not going into detail on you hands from the session, cause i think that would potenially turn into a big strat derail. On the quick look it seems fine though, even though the KQ hand is debateable on some parts regarding what the luckbox 3 bet range is and some other issues. But i mean, nothing serious either way.

Those sessions happens now and then for me to, and its normal of course- but i always bounce back quickly. Also its a long long way from 400 BB to 2000BB + wich is the kind of downswing this discussion started off with from my part.

Regarding me and my friend managing to avoid big downswings i think we both have ran above expecations in order to not have gone through any worse downswings than 8 buyins on a more than 2000 hour sample. It would be pretty arrogant to think otherwise imo. So bigger downswings will come sooner or later, and i am fully aware of that.

I think like Mike also mentioned, its probably a mix of several reasons behind it though. Many of my hours is logged at passive loose tables, where i sort of run over the table and nobody put pressure back on me. Like steady grinding for 8-10 BB hour kind of game, with extremely small risk.One of the things maybe having a role in this is that i have stoploss of 4 buyins (400 BB), wich simply prevents me to never dig myself into a huge whole and spew off buyins on my B or C game. If i hit that stoploss limit i quit, sleep- then come back fully recharged with a fresh mindset- wich raises my chances of playing my A game agian and booking a winning session directly after.
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Old 05-10-2017, 11:53 PM   #18694
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If you're going on 25BI downswings at a 100bb cap game, I agree you're probably not very good at all. If you have a 300bb cap and the game plays deep, well obv variance will occasionally do its thing and you'll lose 25*100bb buyins occasionally. But I'd look at that as more of an 8BI DS.
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Old 05-11-2017, 12:02 AM   #18695
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
The people that can't wrap their head around large downswings are likely the ones playing in tighter games with smaller buy-in structures. I'm looking at Mike and gobbledy here.

When your game dynamic regularly sees all-ins at 50/50, 60/40 and 70/30 splits for well over 100 BB's then it's not hard to imagine how a nasty downswing occurs.
I can definitely wrap my head around big downswings. When I played online pre-Black Friday, I experienced a nearly 200 BI downswing playing MTTs. One day, I was 24-tabling turbo SNGs and my internet went out. Insta-24 BI downer. Playing live PLO I went on a 30+ BI downer which I considered to be not a big deal at all.

The thing is, playing live NL I was rarely in a position to get in 100bbs in a situation where I was flipping, and I would consider getting into those positions in most games to be less than ideal because of the amount of money you can make from other spots as well as the mental stress of losing a few flips can put on a player. From the hands you posted, I only play the AA hand the same. I don't think you necessarily played them poorly, but for the games I played in, I would consider them sub-optimal. You're buying in deep already and playing a super high variance style, on top of the fact you you're opening to 25 and 3b to 70+ which is more like a 2/5 game in the first place.
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Old 05-11-2017, 02:36 AM   #18696
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Playing live PLO I went on a 30+ BI downer which I considered to be not a big deal at all.
ugh, don't remind me
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Old 05-11-2017, 11:14 AM   #18697
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Related to above.

Second hand today: AKs <AA for 80bb

Fourth hand today: A9s<AJo for 30bb all in on A94 flop.

7th hand my J4s>AA for 70bb.

Variance has no role in my winrate.
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Old 05-11-2017, 11:42 AM   #18698
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This is not a hand specific strategy thread. Please start a new thread if you wish to talk about them.
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Old 05-11-2017, 11:43 AM   #18699
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7th hand my J4s>AA for 70bb.
Lol, we might need a HH for this one.

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Old 05-11-2017, 08:57 PM   #18700
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Variance has no role in my winrate.
Well, it does...
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